Kiley McDaniel Prospects Chat – 10/24/14

Kiley McDaniel: So I spent four days watching July 2 guys and now I’m in Jupiter watching the huge high school prospect tournament. Got a break between games and some WiFi courtesy of Perfect Game, so bring the questions, people.

Comment From Guest
Hi Kiley, thanks for the chat.

Kiley McDaniel: You forgot to say you’ll hang up and listen

Comment From Big Pete
Provide content already!

Kiley McDaniel: Gimme a minute!

Comment From RotoLando
Hello, and thanks for the Friday chat! Who is your favorite hitting prospect and your favoirte pitching prospect?

Kiley McDaniel: Well he isn’t the best hitting prospect, but I love watching Dan Vogelbach because he’s so unique and as for the pitchers Jeff Hoffman might have the most upside, though the TJ changes the equation a bit.

Comment From Guest
Hi Kiley, thanks for dealing with fellow psychopaths.

Kiley McDaniel: We’re all in the asylum, bro

Comment From Andy
Is anything gonna change in Colorado with a new GM or nah?

Kiley McDaniel: No real evidence to suspect things will change drastically, just a new face/personality at the top

Comment From Ya Boy Billy Binkers
Aaron Judge upside Jayson Werth?

Kiley McDaniel: Judge is slowly proving to be more of a hitter than I expected, so yeah, that might be the best case scenario. The big guys take a little longer to develop. And, again, don’t comp Judge to Stanton. Stanton had like 50 homers at this age.

Comment From Xolo
Yesterday in his chat, Keith Law said that HUnter Renfroe can be a good OBP/25 HR/above-average D star. Agree?

Kiley McDaniel: If he makes enough contact, yes. 60 raw, 55-60 run, 60 arm, big bat speed. There are tales I heard in his draft year of him catching a deer on foot.

Comment From Larry
Who are your mentors in the game?

Kiley McDaniel: They probably wouldn’t want to be named here, but in the process of learning to scout and how to handle yourself in the industry it’s important to find a couple of those guys, usually scouts or front office types.

Comment From GSon
Does TJ Anderson of the Rockies make up for lost time and become the prospect SP they thought when they drafted him in 2011?

Kiley McDaniel: Yep, he was ticking up late in the season, hit 95 and looks like a #4 starter. Wrote him up here: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Comment From Sean
Kiley, how are the new J2 rules regarding contact w/15 year olds and younger even enforceable?

Kiley McDaniel: Spot checks, rumors, investigations, etc. Kind of the honor system in some ways since there won’t be an MLB exec at every academy every day, but eventually teams will give up complaining about it and move on…unless they find a loophole.

Comment From Xolo
Where do you think Tomas will end up on your top 100 list?

Kiley McDaniel: Likely top 50, haven’t really thought about him, but probably around the middle of the top 50.

Comment From Jake deBomb
opinion of Tyler Saladino? sleeper SS or UT player?

Kiley McDaniel: Probably UT, but small chance to turn into everyday guy

Comment From GSon
Ashe Russell the BEST of the BEST SP candidates for the coming Rule IV draft?

Kiley McDaniel: Had him 13th in my rankings here: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Kiley McDaniel: He’s somewhere from 10 to 30 right now depending on which scout you talk to. The class is weak at the top, so when scouts actually line the players up, he ends up higher than the typical “he’s a late first round kind of guy” quick take

Comment From LarryA
What are the different skills needed for Left vs. right field?

Kiley McDaniel: Right field needs a 55 or better arm and usually a 40+ runner. LF is typically where you hide a guy with a weak arm and can get the fly-catcher CF type or the lumbering Adam Dunn type…but more and more these days it’s more of the small CF type. Some teams will stick a 50+ arm with bad range/speed in LF, but that varies team to team.

Comment From Jake deBomb
Roberto Pena eventually hit enough to be a reg ML C ?

Kiley McDaniel: Nope and may not hit enough to be a long-term backup, but probably gets a cup of coffee.

Comment From LarryA
Are you in Arizona as we speak?

Kiley McDaniel: Nope, heading out there on Tuesday once this Jupiter tournament ends.

Comment From GSon
WHere did you feel Kyle Schwarber should be drafted (# 4 overall by the Flubs) & Bradley Zimmer (# 15 overall by the Indians) ??

Kiley McDaniel: I had Schwarber closer to 10th on my rankings, but now would have him a little higher now, so fine with where he went. Zimmer I had around where he went, a lot of guys clustered there.

Comment From Quinn
Does having great bat speed imply contact problems? It seems like the quicker you whip the bat through the zone, the more problems you might encounter making contact/adjusting to off-speed stuff. Think Javier Baez as an extreme example. Is this a fair observation?

Kiley McDaniel: The more bat speed you have, the more problems you have timing it and the more power you have…so typically these guys choose to hit for power since that’s in demand, hence contact issues

Comment From Ceej
Is Polanco or Taveras more likely to take a step forward next year?

Kiley McDaniel: I’ll take Polanco. Lots of whispers on Taveras’ makeup leading up to this year seem to have fire to the smoke.

Comment From hooha
What do you think of Roman Quinn? After a lost season does he still have his speed?

Kiley McDaniel: 80 runner and doesn’t need to hit that well to be useful

Comment From nik
Who has the better chance to be the Phillies CF of the future, Roman Quinn or Carlos Tocci?

Kiley McDaniel: Working on the Phillies list now. They are actively working on putting weight on Tocci this offseason since that’s holding back his potential. Not a huge prospect until he can do that. Quinn is the guy.

Comment From Hawat
Any thoughts on Trevor Story? Had a great start and a very mediocre finish after the promotion. You think he will be anything more than a utility guy?

Kiley McDaniel: SS offensive threshold to start is low, but most scouts think he’s a good utility guy with a small chance to be a starter for a few years.

Kiley McDaniel: And you can check the above link on the Tyler Anderson question for my report on Story.

Comment From Locke
How much does being in Colorado effect the stocks of Eddie Butler and Jon Gray? Would they rank higher on prospect lists if they were in a different organization?

Kiley McDaniel: I know that I and the other main outlets don’t factor that in at all. We project everyone to play in a neutral park, but will mention how the ultimate MLB park could affect their development

Comment From Stanatee the Manatee
When looking at a fringy pitching prospect, what would give you a better feeling going forward: a velocity increase or a new pitch he seems to have a good feel for?

Kiley McDaniel: Velo probably, but depends on the situation

Comment From Eastern NC
Great information in the podcast. How highly should I value Addison Russell in a forever keeper? Big league regular for him in a trade, or should I go for superstar upside.

Kiley McDaniel: Chance to be all-star and play next year; he’s the guy you trade for.

Comment From William
Any news on Bryan Emery and do you think the Yankees are still the favorite to sign him

Kiley McDaniel: Talked to some scouts about that this week. He’s holding out for big money and the teams that went over their pools (NYY, TB, BOS, etc) can afford him more easily than those right at their pool limits…but still would have to pay a dollar for dollar penalty…so if he wants $2M, he would cost $4M…so I wouldn’t expect a lot of movement soon.

Comment From Dave M.
He isn’t a prospect anymore, but I’m curious about your thoughts on Xander Bogaerts and how your estimate of his FV has changed from after the 2013 World Series to now. Thanks!

Kiley McDaniel: Probably a 60 or 65 last year, maybe just a 60 now. Not much of a difference, just may take a little longer than expected

Comment From mtsw
Given the sudden popularity/demand for Cuban players in MLB, think we’ll start seeing teams consider more position players from Japan?

Kiley McDaniel: It’s all based on merit, not fads. The prices may be more tied to fads, though, as trends dictate hwo many teams want to pay big money. There haven’t been a lot of Japanese hitting prospects worth big money and I don’t know of one on the horizon, but I know of about a half dozen pitchers coming from Japan in the next few years.

Comment From Guest
When is the White Sox prospect piece due to go up? Any teasers?

Kiley McDaniel: Phillies, Reds and White Sox research is all basically done, but I’m in the middle of a 17-day trip with games everyday, so it’ll be a little hit and miss to promise what days they’ll go up. Tyler Danish and Spencer Adams are both favorties and David Trexler is the super sleeper.

Comment From Xolo
With Epstein in Chicago and Friedman in LA, are big league front offices moving towards a new model of show running?

Kiley McDaniel: Sounds like owners have learned top baseball men (TOP MEN) are the best investment you can make, so the best execs are going to the richest teams. Makes sense.

Comment From Derek
Are you able to check out Korean players? I read earlier in the year 3B Jeong Choi wants to move to MLB in 2015, but it’s hard to find any scouting reports on him. Is it harder to scout Korean players or is it just a smaller market for lack of a better term?

Kiley McDaniel: It’s a long flight, so I probably won’t be seeing him in Korea. That league is scouted by MLB scouts, so they can see him if they want.

Comment From Andy Dirks
Have you seen post-TJ Roberto Osuna?

Kiley McDaniel: Yep, good stuff, command inconsistent, but mid rotation potential if it all comes together.

Comment From RotoLando
Can I pretend your named is pronounced Kill-ee. Kill-ee McDaniel is a pretty awesome name.

Kiley McDaniel: Thanks?

Kiley McDaniel: Got a few pitchers to go check out downstairs in a few minutes, so might have to postpone the chat for a bit soon

Comment From third eye
Did you go to Vandy, Duke, or Georgetown?

Kiley McDaniel: None of the above

Comment From Eastern NC
Whatever happened to Eddie Butler? Still #2 ceiling realistically

Kiley McDaniel: Upside? yes, Likely? No. See that link above for the Rockies list for more details.

Comment From Terence Malick
I enjoy your work.

Kiley McDaniel: You’re gonna love my next prospect list which is a 15,000 word meditation on life and dinosaurs

Kiley McDaniel: Okay, running downstairs to see a few pitchers for an inning. BRB, peeps

Kiley McDaniel: I’m back

Kiley McDaniel: Saw 2015 prep RHP Shane Tucker 90-91 t92 with fringy slider and 2016 RHP Charles King 90-91 with life and projectable frame. Advantage: King

Comment From Xolo
What/who is Trea Turner’s ceiling?

Kiley McDaniel: .285 avg, some walks, 10ish homers, solid avg defense, 30 steals is the best-case

Comment From JAck
Jorge Mateo top 100 prospect?

Kiley McDaniel: Haven’t asked others about this yet (Yankees list is coming up) but my inclination is he’s a candidate for the back 10-15 spots of a top 100. If you think I’m going to do an even 100, you’re crazy.

Comment From Chris
Fair assessment or not: The Phillies actually do have talent in the lower levels of the farm, but nothing much in the upper levels.

Kiley McDaniel: Sneak preview of that list: Maikel Franco, Aaron Nola and JP Crawford in some order are the 50+ FV guys. The rest is uninspiring.

Comment From josh
Thoughts on Micker Adolfo (Zapata), I think that he could be a star for White Sox in due time.

Kiley McDaniel: Go look at his rookie ball stats…ridiculous strikeout rate. But, scouts and CHW personnel are saying he was great in instructs and he’s still in the part of his career where he’s moving to a new country, just now has been here for 12 months and is seeing premium velo for the first time. Breakout candidate. I’m a fan. Interviewed him before July 2nd–he was born in Virgin Islands and moved to DR to train but is fluent in English and is a great kid with 55-60 tools across the board.

Comment From Drew Fairservice
Did you know there are two Jake Peavys? My studies have shown he is imitating the movie “The Prestige”

Kiley McDaniel: Is Hunter Pence the other Peavy?

Comment From neal
were there any july 2 guys that surprised you?

Kiley McDaniel: I only knew a few names before I saw them this week. One guy that was enormous at 14 is even more enormous at 15/16 to the point that it’s affecting his potential. A couple guys got a lot better. Vlad Guerrero Jr is one of them.

Comment From Henato Laranja
Would Brendan Rodgers be in the top 100 prospects if he were eligible to be ranked for 2015’s top 100?

Kiley McDaniel: Absolutely. Maybe around 50? Would have to think about it and see who is ranked where.

Comment From Cole
Did Trey Ball do well enough in the 2nd half to earn a promotion to begin next season or is he likely to begin where he left off?

Kiley McDaniel: I think he’ll move up. BOS said he made a lot of progress in the 2nd half, including velo at 92-93

Comment From the real brian
Can we start using the phrase “landing gear?” As in, “that pitcher has great landing gear and by that I mean he has downward plane.”

Kiley McDaniel: Gonna be just you for awhile, bro

Comment From Jake H
Any guys from the Yankees DSL impress you?

Kiley McDaniel: At instructs, I liked some of the NYY kids from the Latin program but don’t think any of them played in the DSL this year; I liked Jorge Mateo and Luis Torrens f fthe stateside bunch. Of the recent July 2 singings, Juan De Leon, Jonathan Amundaray and Hyo-Joon Park were the most impressive. Nelson Gomez and Dermis Garcia have tools but both are very mature and will have to perform before I get excited.

Comment From #KeepNotGraphs
Why are SP prospects always forecasted as “solid #2 or #3” or “mid-rotation”…why never “ceiing of an ace”?

Kiley McDaniel: Not never, just not often and that’s because it’s only warranted every now and then. If you saw it a lot, ace wouldn’t mean very much. There a max of 12 in the big leagues at any given time. Ace doesn’t mean top 30 pitchers, it refers to the top echelon of starters.

Comment From Rob
Thanks for the chat Kiley! In terms of baseball prospect evaluators with a girls name, you are definitely in my top three. What has been the biggest difference in Frank Montas in the past year?

Kiley McDaniel: Thanks! Consistency and breaking ball have improved. Still needs command to come on to avoid being a reliever…but the stuff is easy closer if that ends up happening.

Comment From Jake H
Do you view Severino as a reliever or starter?

Kiley McDaniel: Starter, but not a slam dunk right now

Comment From jocephus
olney says maddon leaving TB

Comment From mtsw
Any initial reaction to news Joe Maddon is opting out his contract for 2015?

Kiley McDaniel: Not sure how to process this after the intimation in the media that Friedman wouldn’t take anyone from TB, not to mention Mattingly is the current manager. May just be Maddon wanting to get market value since his buddy isn’t in TB anymore. Real pivotal offseason for TB.

Comment From Scott
Who is an under the radar prospect that everyone should be talking about but no one is?

Kiley McDaniel: About to write up Aristedes Aquino for the Reds. The Reds LOVE this kid and scouts tend to agree. 60 arm/power, RF fit, can really hit and has projection.

Comment From mike
What’s supposed to make Xander good, because I don’t get it

Kiley McDaniel: Can play SS, runs well, plus bat speed, at least 20 homer potential if not more. Very short list of guys that can do that. Obviously, the bat needs to come around.

Comment From Chris
Is there an untapped international market for prospects that teams haven’t yet taken advantage of? Some pockets of Europe seem to be big into baseball.

Kiley McDaniel: But they play so little in games that there’s a huge learning curve. Baseball talent is meritocracy. Might take awhile to get noticed, but if you’re good enough, you get a chance, even if only 1 scouts sees you.

Kiley McDaniel: The untapped market may be overage (19-25) year old Dominicans, who have a stigma and get lost in the shuffle, but would absolutely be signed if they were a domestic prospect (DSL roster spots and visas, etc. get in the way). Multiple scouting directors admitted there’s probably multiple big leaguers that never got signed because they were “too old”

Comment From Scott
post-TJ Roberto Osuna is getting lit up in the AFL

Kiley McDaniel: He got lit up in the start I saw too, but it was up to 97 with above average secondaries. Command is the last thing to come after TJ.

Comment From Jake deBomb
the first person to take a 17 minute break in his own chat

Kiley McDaniel: About to be the first guy to drop the mic in a chat

Comment From Jay
How far has R. Stephenson’s stock fallen? Is he likely to end up in the bullpen?

Kiley McDaniel: Nope, just had a kinda lost year this year. Didn’t make a lot of progress in command and developing starter traits.

Comment From Rico Brogna
% chance Folty makes it as a starter?

Kiley McDaniel: 25

Kiley McDaniel: Jomar Reyes. Enormous kid in the GCL with big power.

Comment From Guest
are you more pleasant when you tweet? debating whether to follow you

Kiley McDaniel: I think so? I don’t tweet too much when at games since I think the “guy you haven’t heard of is sitting 90-92” can wear on people, especially with how often I’m at games…so it’s mostly links to stuff to read and dumb jokes

Comment From Joe Maddon
Can you tell me what this means? I assume it’s about me. “@ChrisArcher42 You’re only as faithful as your options.”

Kiley McDaniel: ARCHER MAD BRO

Comment From Rico Brogna
I want you to tell me that Mike Foltynewicz still has a good chance to make it as a starter. I also don’t want you to lie.

Kiley McDaniel: You’ve backed me into a corner, Rico.

Comment From Guest
if you’re of legal drinking age, what is your favorite beer?

Kiley McDaniel: I’m 29, I’m Irish, thus I’m a Guinness guy

Kiley McDaniel: That’s all folks, back to the fields and thanks for the questions. July 2n thoughts, Podcast with Carson and CIN/PHI/CHW lists all coming soon along with thoughts from AFL trip and maybe some draft thoughts too. Man, that schedule just gave me a headache.