Buster Posey’s Baserunning Blues

Buster Posey hasn’t been quite himself this postseason. Through Wednesday’s game in Kansas City, he’s batted .288/.333/.288, which isn’t terrible but has included an un-Poseyish power outage. His batting line was better during the NLDS against Washington, which is ironic because most of the failures I’m about to talk about took place during that series.

My topic isn’t how Posey’s been getting on base. It’s what he’s been doing after getting on base: specifically, getting thrown out on the bases. During the four-game NLDS, Buster Posey got himself cut down four times. After a clean NLCS, he added an out at home in Game One of the World Series to push his postseason total this year to five.

Now, Posey isn’t anyone’s idea of a speed merchant. (Okay, maybe he’s David Ortiz‘s idea, or Billy Butler’s.) His Base Running score is consistently negative: -5.1 in 2012, -4.2 in ’13, -3.0 this year. Still, he knows enough to stay within his limited speed, and not try to do too much. He was thrown out on the bases just twice in 2012, and three times in 2013. That is to say, he’s been thrown out as many times in a dozen postseason games this year as he was over two entire regular seasons.

Has Posey suddenly started pushing too hard under the pressure of October ball? (If playoff experience means anything, the answer would be no, but recent studies suggest playoff experience may not mean anything.) Or is he the victim of bad luck and maybe some bad coaching?

I’ve broken down the five plays where Posey been put out on the bases. Along with the videos, I give the game situation as it would have been had Posey not gone for the extra base. I list Win Expectancy lost on the outs, the WE that would have been gained had he been safe, and the break-even percentage for the attempts. (My source for these numbers is the WPA Inquirer at FanGraphs’ sister site The Hardball Times.) Along with that, I boil down the play itself and give my wholly subjective opinion on how much of a TOOTBLAN Posey committed.

#1. NLDS Game One, Top 7th
Giants up 3, 1 out, Posey on 1st

WE Lost/Gain/BE%: -.008/+.004/66.7%
Summary: It was zero outs when Buster began running on this full-count hit-and-run, and was two outs by the time he reached second. His break wasn’t too good, but you expect that on hit-and-run plays. Even with that and his sub-par speed, he wasn’t out by much. We can blame the play call at least as much as the execution.
TOOTBLAN Rating: Medium-low.

#2. NLDS Game Two, Top 9th
Tied, 2 out, Posey on 3rd (Sandoval on 2nd)

WE Lost/Gain/BE%: -.139/+.330/29.6%
Summary: Pablo Sandoval’s double had driven in the tying run, and Posey would have put the Giants ahead. The odds were all in favor of going for it, even at adverse odds. The Nationals made two good throws, and still Posey nearly beat the play. No shame in this, unless you had plans for the night that didn’t involve an 18-inning baseball game.
TOOTBLAN Rating: Zero.

#3. NLDS Game Two, Top 14th
Tied, 2 out, Posey on 1st

WE Lost/Gain/BE%: -.060/+.038/61.2%
Summary: Posey took a chance that the ball was getting farther away from Wilson Ramos than it did. Maybe a catcher should be able to gauge his opposite number better than the average runner. The odds leaned toward some aggressiveness, but I think Buster was trying too hard here. Still, he made it close again.
TOOTBLAN Rating: Medium.

#4. NLDS Game Four, Bottom 7th
Giants up 1, 1 out, Posey on 3rd (Pence on 2nd advancing behind Posey; Sandoval walked to 1st)

WE Lost/Gain/BE%: -.070/+.056/55.6%
Summary: The current argument against the automatic intentional walk, right here. On a pitch that bounces to the screen, if you’ve got any wheels, you have to be going. His bad luck it bounced right back to Ramos. The lone case in opposition is that you don’t give the opposing pitcher an escape hatch when he’s coming apart on the mound. (Reliever Aaron Barrett had a bases-loading walk and another wild pitch before this bungled ball four.) Another bang-bang play, another out.
TOOTBLAN Rating: Very low.

#5. World Series Game One, Top 1st
Giants up 1, 1 out, Posey on 3rd (Sandoval on 2nd)

WE Lost/Gain/BE%: -.092/+.030/75.4%
Summary: Third-base coach Tim Flannery was obviously windmilling Posey home, and with the play behind him, Buster cannot be blamed much for following his command. It still looked bad to be thrown out by three strides, and Hunter Pence’s subsequent dinger meant it definitely cost the Giants. It was a questionable send with one out, but those questions go toward the guy giving the send sign.
TOOTBLAN Rating: Low.

So out of five plays where Posey got thrown out on the basepaths, only once does he merit a strong portion of blame. Three times, he did what a manager or coach wanted him to do. One time, he took a chance you just have to take if you’re not named Lurch or Big Papi. And for those not offended by results-based analysis, I will note that the Giants won all of those games. The total WE lost was -.369; the total games lost was 0.

Buster Posey’s been having a rocky postseason, but while his baserunning exploits have been a big factor in that, his baserunning judgment has been only a small factor. He’s been getting a little luck-whipped, and that happens. It is, though, fair to note that if he were just a wee bit faster, some of those outs could be bases taken and runs scored. Even if he’s largely not to blame, it might be time for Posey to look at himself, and maybe adjust his estimate of what he can do on the bases.

That, or give Tim Flannery a kick in the tush.