Kiley McDaniel Prospects Chat – 12/12/14
12:05 |
: Why start using snappy intros now?
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12:05 |
Know anything about Jason Garcia? What do the Orioles see in him that they’re willing to take him in Rule 5 draft despite him never pitching above high-A? |
12:07 |
his player page: http://www.fangraphs.com/st… |
12:08 |
YORE LATE KILEY |
12:08 |
: I see my fans are lucid as usual
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12:09 |
What kind of season do you see for Rodon this year? |
12:12 |
: I’d expect him to open in AAA, be up in a month or so and be a solid league average pitcher with flashes of frontline performance at times
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12:13 |
How many white sox in the top 100? |
12:13 |
: Solid 3 (Rodon, Anderson, Montas) then maybe Adams sneaks in at the end. I’ve said this in other places, but my list will be way more than 100 and it won’t be an even number.
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12:13 |
Is Andrew Heaney’s stuff down from last year? |
12:14 |
: Some outing it’ll be two 55’s and a 50, sometimes it’ll be two 60’s and a 55. I opted to grade him at the higher end of that range for his player page, but in the comment noted you sometimes see the lesser stuff. The good version is a #3 and the lesser version is a #4. He’s almost big league ready, so it’s a subtle difference.
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12:16 |
What do you make of the two players the Nats got back for Ross Detwiler? |
12:17 |
: Bostick is an org guy that sometimes show flashes of being a backup, so wouldn’t worry about him. De Los Santos is a relief type thrower into the mid-90’s but probably isn’t more than a 7th inning type if it works out.
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12:18 |
Will Yoan Moncada end up playing 3B or 2B in the majors? Would he be a top 5 MILB prospect right now? |
12:18 |
: Probably 3B. If not, then very close.
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12:18 |
Is Luis Severino a top-50 prospect for you? |
12:18 |
: If he is, it towards the end. I’d guess he’s in the 40-70 range, but I haven’t made a lot of NYY calls yet.
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12:18 |
Love what Trea Turner brings to the table for the Padres in the future, any timetable on his arrival to MLB? |
12:19 |
: I’d expect A-Ball this year, then AA next year if it all goes well and then it’s up to the Padres. Could be up in year 3, but probably more like year 4.
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12:19 |
People are starting to talk that a healthy Sano could be rushed like Baez was. From a developmental standpoint, how does rushing a hitter along affect them? |
12:22 |
http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…
: Wrote about that topic here: The short version is being rushed means you aren’t ready for advanced stuff/command, hitter gets overmatched, gets into bad habits to try to figure out a way to survive and those habits can hang around for years. Can be career-ending type stuff or could just last a month until he finds a good hitting coach in AAA. |
12:22 |
If the “rumor” of the return for Jimmy Rollins is true, and the Phillies do indeed get back Tom Windle and Zach Eflin – what should we expect from those 2? Hard to see Jimmy go as a fan, but if those 2 are pretty good, it lessens the blow. |
12:25 | : Really like Eflin, going to post a video and report of him after the chat. Saw him a lot in high school and he’s going to be a 6’4/250 monster one day that flashes a plus FB/CH combo and a 50 or so breaking ball. Potential #3 starter but still hasn’t quite clicked for consistent stuff/command. Windle is a funky lefty with above average stuff that’s either a good reliever or a 4th starter depending on how the command plays given the stiffness of his delivery. Grades/article linked to on his player page here |
12:25 |
: And that’s a pretty solid return, FYI
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12:26 |
Any ’14 draftees stick out as guys whose stock has gone up considerably since the draft? |
12:34 |
: Okay I’m gonna run through the top 10 rounds and name the guys that are beating expectations or look like particularly good values for where they were picked/paid.
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12:34 |
: Schwarber and Rodon are both on the high end of what was expected after the draft. Finnegan obviously returned value quicker than expected, but the stuff was about the same (health was his question). Kopech’s stuff is crisper than in much of the spring. Derek Fisher is showing some flashes of getting more out of his tools. Spencer Adams probably went too low and has ben as good as could be expected. Jacob Lindgren and Sam Travis have both had their tools play quicker/better than expected.
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12:34 |
: Brent Honeywell has been one of the bigger surprises and will be high on Monday’s TB list. Matt Railey and Brian Gonzalez look like good values where they went. Jake Reed has been a pleasant surprise. Derick Velazquez and James Norwood could be nice values. Brandon Wieck and Ryan Butler (up to 100 mph) are both looking solid so far.
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12:36 |
: Alexis Pantojas was a personal favorite over the summer that is a nice find in the 9th round and ATL LOVES the early returns on 9th rounder Jordan Edgerton. Lastly, Randy LeBlanc throws real hard which is pretty good for the 10th round.
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12:36 |
Is Wilmer Difo legit? |
12:37 |
: I would live my ideal life if no one else asked me if a prospect was legit
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12:37 |
I hear a lot about the Mets pitching prospects, but do they have anything in the way of position players? Given the climate of baseball, it seems like the pendulum of power is shifting to teams that have bats. Do the Mets have anything in that regard? |
12:38 |
: Got a nice early read on the NYM system and there’s some bats. 50+ group has Plawecki, Rosario, Herrera, Nimmo and Conforto. Cecchini, Smith, Urena and Ramos all currently in the 45 group. Mazzilli, Reynolds and Puello all showing some flashes in the 40 group and there’s some solid sleepers below that also on the list. There’s your sneak preview!
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12:39 |
: I’m really giving you guys some great original content in this chat. Someone grab me some lobster tacos and I’ll keep going.
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12:39 |
What are the expectations for Mark Appel next year? His showing in the AFL was good, but was it it good enough to negate a less-than-stellar season in Single-A and Double-A? |
12:40 |
http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…
: Wrote about him at length in the Astros list here: I’d expect him to pitch better and at AA and AAA this year, with a chance for a September callup, but probably up 2 weeks in 2016 for service time reasons. Still have no idea what to make of him as a prospect. |
12:40 |
I know Archie Bradley’s stock has fallen somewhat, but do you buy the Kemp for Bradley rumor and that the Dodgers turned it down? How much money would the Dbacks have to ask for to make AF not want Bradley? |
12:41 |
: I don’t really break down hypothetical trades (more on the reason in the coming weeks) but Bradley’s stock is down. Stuff is more 55-60 with fringy command and now with an arm injury in the rear view. Bloom is off the rose, but the stuff could still come back. I wouldn’t make a habit of betting on stuff to come back, though.
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12:41 |
Does switching teams do anything for you with DeShields, or is it still up to how much he does with himself? |
12:42 |
: Yunel Escobar has a similarly bad rap and the atmosphere in TB due to Maddon and a solid clubhouse allowed him to change. Some situations/change of scenery have that effect…but I’m not sure DeShields has enough talent to put up with what the downside could be. Legit MLB contributor upside, though, so could be worth it.
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12:42 |
Kiley. I assume you are good at what you do because you are still more or less doing what you do. In the meantime, know that you are interesting to listen to, especially when making fun of Cistulli. So keep doing that. bye. |
12:43 |
: I don’t completely follow this, but I will continue making fun of Cistulli in the podcast we record later today….so thanks!
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12:44 |
Who was the best player taken in the Rule 5? |
12:47 |
As for who will stick, who is best right now in MLB, etc…anyone who is sure they have the right answer and isn’t working for a team is lying to you. I talked to a few guys who headed up their clubs’ Rule 5 lists and they couldn’t answer that question. |
12:48 |
Has your opinion of Albert Almora changed much in the past year, given his struggles – or is he just young for his league. Do you still see him as having the same ceiling / probability as he did when he was drafted? Thanks! |
12:48 |
: Lower probability, same ceiling. Injuries explain some of it, but I thought he’d have more patience than he’s shown so far. 2015 will be a big season for him.
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12:48 |
Do you expect Nomar Mazara to make you top 100 this offseason? And could he be up for a cup of coffee this coming fall? |
12:49 |
: Yes. Very unlikely due to his age.
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12:49 |
who has more upside Heaney or Daniel Norris? |
12:49 |
: Norris has more stuff, Heaney has more command. I’d lean Norris.
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12:50 |
How angry should Dan Duquette be that Peter Angelos went to press to say he’d prevent him from seeking Toronto CEO job when it was rumored that DD was a candidate? |
12:50 |
: This was one of the hot topics in the lobby this week. I can’t say one word of what I was told, so make up your own speculation!
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12:50 |
I’m tired of waiting on Kepler. Does he ever break out? |
12:51 |
: He would’ve been a junior in college this year and he grew up in Germany as the son of two ballet dancers. He didn’t play baseball regularly until he was close to 18. He’ll be in AA next year. You are the problem.
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12:51 |
Does Jeff Hoffman have similarities to Lucas Giolito? |
12:52 |
: Peak stuff is pretty similar. if anything, Hoffman has the better changeup and I think his delivery is a little better, too. Both have TJ in the rear view and we haven’t seen Hoffman show the velo is back yet, so have to wary until that happens.
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12:52 |
So even everyone ranked TylerBeede highly in the draft they said it was just go along with consensus. But if nobody actually liked hike becaus of the makeup and command issues then shouldn’t the consensus be much lower? |
12:53 |
: Makeup can change. Stuff is much harder to change. He has stuff and good pitching/mental coaches exist. Can’t rank him lower than about 20-25 in the draft for this reason. Just because he hasn’t changed yet doesn’t mean he can’t. I feel like I’m Dr. Phil right now. YOU HAVE TO WANT YOU TO CHANGE, TYYYYYYYYLER.
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12:53 |
Have you seen Devon Travis in person? Is there anything there that gives you an idea of whether his hit tool will be able to cross to the majors? He has relatively low K rates and an average-ish BB rate, but I guess I’m wondering if he’s the kind of prospect who at age 24 is doomed for AAAA status, or if he’s ready to make the leap and be a productive major leaguer this year? |
12:54 |
http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…
: Saw Travis in AFL last year. I’ll refer you to the link I gave earlier in the chat about prospect failure. All you answers are in here and the linked providence journal piece That’s to say that no one knows, but those pieces explain why. |
12:55 |
If Heaney gets into the HOF, will the dodgers stint go on his paque? |
12:55 |
: V IMPT
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12:55 |
Tim Anderson or Peraza long term? |
12:55 |
: I’ll take Anderson
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12:55 |
How would you compare Barreto to Andrew Velazquez? Both are similar sizes and you graded them very similarly. Seems odd one is a key piece in a trade for an MVP caliber player while the other was shipped off for spare parts |
12:57 |
: In the same ballpark. Barreto is a little stronger, better hitter and more pedigree, same speed, Velazquez a better chance to play SS and has played at a higher level. I’d take Barreto but not by an enormous margin. TB got more than people expected in the Hellickson deal and Barreto was the 2nd piece in the Lawrie/Donaldson trade. Hard to compare the deals to tease out the value, so I did it for you.
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12:57 |
Andrew Friedmann must feel so relieved to be able to scheme without constraints, no? |
12:58 |
: I asked a TB exec in the lobby “so is this what you guys would do if you had a bunch of money?” He laughed and said he didn’t know because he didn’t allow himself to dream about that day.
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12:58 |
Any reason to temper my enthusiasm for Mark Canha, just picked up by A’s? I realize he was old for each level, but those are some great minor league stats. |
12:58 |
: fringy power, good bat, prob 1B only. Potential platoon/backup type. Good Rule 5 pick.
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12:59 |
Hey, Kiley! Happy first day of baseball writers not tweeting about how much they love San Diego. What percentage chance would you give Luke Jackson to stick as a starter? |
12:59 |
: I STILL LOVE SD EVEN IF SHE WON’T CALL ME BACK. 35%
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12:59 |
Question about service time for the “seasoned” international free agents. Does the 6 year team control still apply? If Tanaka exercises his opt out after year 4 do the yankees still have control for 2 more years through the arbitration process? |
1:00 |
: It varies player-to-player because some have it written into their contracts with language about no qualifying offers or how arbitration is handled if he’s projected to make more than the fixed/negotiated salary is. I could google Tanaka specifically, but it’s more fun if you do it.
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1:00 |
Do you tend to prefer high floor low ceiling prospect or High Ceiling Low Floor prospects? |
1:04 |
: Hard to say in the abstract. Anyone who quickly says they always prefer one of these options I immediately distrust. That said, when I’m writing lists and…take TB for an example…at the top fo the 40 FV group is Mikie Mahtook, who could be a 4th OF as soon as 2015 but is probably never more than that. Then, a few spots lower is a rookie ball Latin pitcher up to 98 mph with a chance to start but has only thrown 4 innings in America. I still kinda want that pitcher, but if I’m a team like Oakland, there’s a legitimate case to take Mahtook because we need that kind of player for what we do. Definitely more excited about the Latin guy though, no question. If I’m being asked by Billy Beane about Mahtook and what he’ll do in 2015 and I saw him a bunch in 2014 and my opinion could dictate if we get him, then those stakes may make me more interested in the “boring” guy if I hadn’t seen the Latin guy.
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1:04 |
Is Marcus Semien really an everyday SS in the majors? |
1:05 |
: I think he’s an everyday middle infielder and I’d guess that ends up being at 2B, but SS is still possible and I didn’t see Semien this year, so I’m not inclined to have a super strong opinion on his glove yet.
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1:05 |
Have the scouting scale hitting equivalents (50 power = X home runs, 50 hitting = Y batting average) been at all updated for changing offensive levels in the majors? Someone who can hit 35ish home runs per year over a long time span might be the best power hitter in the majors right now, but would that be 80 power? |
1:06 |
: I know the scale I used was updated by the team I worked for 3 years ago and FG did an update I believe last year that showed the scale was still more or less useful they way I have it now. I’d guess, for example, 50 power being 15-18 homers is more like 15 than 15-18…so mostly still useful, yes.
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1:06 |
Any development on the Yoan Moncada situation? |
1:07 |
: Not really. Waiting for OFAC ruling and announcement about next open workout, which I will be at, wherever it is.
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1:07 |
Could you maybe do a series on scouting breaking balls? I know fastball are scouting nearly entirely on velocity, but I’m curious on say what make a 50 slider a 50 slider vs. a 40 slider. Also how Sale and Kershaw can both have elite sliders with such different movement? Maybe give a couple example of each grade pitches. |
1:07 |
: I think I’ll wait until I get thru all the prospect lists before I go back to the tools series, but yes, I will be doing this.
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1:08 |
What’s the deal with Jesse Hahn? |
1:09 |
:
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1:09 |
: Better question: What’s the DEAL with airplane food?
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1:09 |
Surprised to see Delino DeShields chosen in the rule 5 draft? Chance he can stick in MLB all season this year? |
1:10 |
: Figured he’d be taken. It’ll come down to if he can make adjustments in the first month or two. Most scouts think he won’t but the tools are good enough to find out. HOU was sick of him.
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1:10 |
Which prospects in the minors now would you be willing to put a 70 grade hit tool on, if any? |
1:12 |
: None. That’s saying you expect him to hit .300 in the big leagues. Not sure I can say that about anyone expect for Joe Mauer or Howie Kendrick type guy, and only when they’re in AA/AAA and almost reayd for MLB. The average scout may throw out one or two of those after seeing MILB games all year for the whole season, and those are often influenced by how good the performance was in the games they saw.
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1:12 |
Best meal in San Diego? |
1:16 |
: Puesto’s tacos were right next to the hotel and I ate there three times. Heavy hitter baseball people were there everytime too, so word clearly got around. Dinner the 4 nights were Pizza Post w/Pliny on tap, after a brewery tour on Sunday. Juniper and Ivy w/appearance by Richard Blais at our table on Monday. Tuesday was Cucina Urbana and Wednesday was Prep Kitchen in Little Italy which were both fantastic. Desserts were world class all 3 nights, as was the weather. Groups were normally 5-15 from a group of writers most of you would know. The week was hard to match between all that and the flurry of moves.
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1:17 |
: Also, ended up talking to a lot of readers/job seekers. Seems like I’ve been adopted as the spirit animal of many of these folks. Since I’ve been exactly where you are, I can sympathize so I tried to give useful advice to each one. Good luck, fellas.
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1:17 |
Hear anything from scouts on Amed Rosario (NYM)? |
1:17 |
: Only a few calls into the NYM list and right now the reports are positive and just short of raving. He good.
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1:17 |
Is Tim Anderson a top 50 prospect? |
1:17 |
: Probably
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1:18 |
Why would Severino be so low? He has dominated in the minors, while always being younger than the avg player. Made it to AA and was dynamite as a 20 year old? Plus his stuff seems to be VERY good. |
1:18 |
: Sounds like you should be writing my list. Severino’s breaking ball is a 50 at best and he struggles with it. If it doesn’t get more consistent, he’s a reliever. That’s why.
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1:19 |
Name three prospects who are receiving much more buzz or hype now from the scouting community than just a few months ago. |
1:19 |
: Three fun latin names in short season to monitor in 2015: RF Aristedes Aquino with CIN, SS Ozahino Albies with ATL and RHP Orlando Romero with TB.
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1:19 |
Do any teams have Pitch F/X systems in their minor league stadiums? It seems like it would provide nice data to complement scouting and get rid of unreliable players tracking pitches. |
1:20 |
: A lot of them do and part of the sales pitch is when you buy in, you get the data from the other teams as well. Same with Trackman data.
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1:20 |
What’s the deal with Beane… Got fleeced on the Samardzija deal no? |
1:20 |
: Good to see your guys buying into the Seinfeld question setup
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1:20 |
What will the Cubs do with all their shortstops? I haven’t seen anything that suggests they’re willing to trade any |
1:21 |
: Never worry about this. It always works itself out. Worry about world hunger or if I’ll find Lobster Tacos near my house.
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1:21 |
Your thoughts on Kevin Gausman? Will he ever become an “ace”? |
1:21 |
: Yes. It’s all there.
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1:21 |
With the Montero acquisition, is there any reason to keep the “Kyle Schwarber, Catcher” project alive? |
1:22 |
: Could still do some work to become backup C that you stick in LF/1B on other days, like a Gattis type. Still worth it.
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1:22 |
Presuming Arizona selects Rodgers with the #1 pick, when could the team reasonably expect to see him manning SS in the majors? Does he project to be fast riser? |
1:23 |
: Way ahead of ourselves here, but if you know me, I live my life 1) a quarter mile at a time and 2) with the cart in front of the horse. I’d say 2016 he does A-Ball, then the quick route is 2018 in MLB, realistic is 2019 in MLB.
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1:23 |
The Phils look like the weakest system you’ve done so far (claiming the title from my ChiSox) how low do you think Chicago will rank when all is said and done? |
1:24 |
: I’ve already been surprised by a few systems, so I know it’s a copout but I have to do the list to find out. TB goes up next and they’re shockingly deep.
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1:24 |
When will CIL let us add a Reggaetone horn to these chats? |
1:24 |
: I berated Appelman in SD about reggaeton horn functionality all over the site. He said no, but I’m negotiating it into my next contract.
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1:24 |
Micah Johnson not a top 100 guy for you? |
1:25 |
: For refernce, 50+ FV guys is well over 100, probably 150 or maybe more. Johnson is a 45 FV guy, so he’s probably 200-300.
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1:25 |
Care to share your projections for me in 2015? |
1:26 |
: Still short
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1:26 |
Better talent: Yoan Moncada or Brendan Rogers? |
1:27 |
: YM is more phsyical, faster and left handed, altho he likely isn’t a SS. I’d take him because you have to take explosiveniscity when given the chance.
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1:27 |
What are the Winter Meetings like for you? Do you spend more time trying to meet and build relationships with execs/scouts? Do you meet up with other writers? Curious how all that works. |
1:28 |
: This year I wasn’t writing a ton since I just did prospect stuff, but plenty of them got dealt so it was more work than expected. The rest of the time was writer schmoozing, eating, meeting new people (writers/team people) and obviously, bugging the hell out of scouts/execs, preferably with alcohol involved.
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1:29 |
Which player from the Yankees’ IFA binge do you like the best? |
1:30 |
: Juan De Leon is my favorite right now. Amundaray may be #2, Park is pretty solid but he’s 2 years older than the rest. Still a little hesitant to blow up Garcia and Gomez. Torrens and Mateo are both way head of this group.
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1:30 |
When I read scouting reports on Aaron Judge, I read a lot of, “70+ power, Good hitting tools and plate discipline, Strong arm, solid defense” – That sounds like a top-10 prospect, but he’s obviously not one. What’s the catch?” |
1:31 |
: This is why I do raw and game power as separate tools. Judge is 55-60 game power and good hitting skills but size makes him a guy you hope is a 50 bat. So, 50 bat and 60 power is an avg everyday RF and he hasn’t been to AA yet. Obviously he could be more than that, but that’s how scouts are looking at him, particularly because no one in the bigs has ever looked like him, so it’s hard to move all your chips to the middle on him.
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1:31 |
I’m legit…2 legit 2 quit |
1:32 |
: (Kiley does the dance from the video)
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1:32 |
: (Kiley hammer dances his way back over to the computer)
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1:32 |
Hey Kiley, I’m citing an article for a term paper from fangraphs. Is there anybody in particular I should list as your publisher? |
1:33 |
: Appelman is the dude in charge, so I’d go with him.
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1:33 |
What’s the ceiling on Jorge Mateo? Heard he got ranked 5 on the latest NYY prospect list and it surprised me. |
1:33 |
: Wait until the real prospect lists come out, bro
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1:33 |
How old is “too old for the level” at AA? |
1:34 |
: Typically, prospect age for levels is 18/19 in short season, 20 in Low-A, 21 in High-A, 22 in AA and 23 in AAA. Anything under that is great and often rare, anything 1 year over is fine especially if it’s a college draftee that may move quickly, anything 2 years over is “old for the league”
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1:34 |
Could you rank these guys in order of their likelihood of staying at short? Alex Bregman, Mikey White, Richie Martin, Kevin Newman, Dansby Swanson? Thanks! |
1:35 |
: Martin (comfortable), Swanson (probably), White (over 50%), Bregman (about 50%), Newman (probably not)
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1:35 |
Is Jacob Lindgren MLB ready? Can we expect more immediate production from a straight reliever prospect |
1:36 |
: He was ready last year…or at least ready as he was going to get.
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1:36 |
Sell me on the Orioles minor league system. |
1:37 |
: Bundy and Harvey are the easy ones. Walker is a 45/50 borderline, Zach Davies is right there as well with Chance Sisco. Jomar Reyes is your sleeper. Stephen Tarpley and Stephen Brault are rising.
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1:38 |
Which of these SD pitchers are at least a 50 for you? Ross, Wisler, Fried, Hahn, Kelly? |
1:39 |
: Right now it’s Wisler and Fried. Kelly and Ross are just below that line (could still change) and Hahn isn’t eligible.
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1:39 |
What are your thoughts on Glasnow’s command issues? It seems like he’s a hugely high-risk prospect |
1:41 |
: Nope. I saw him 4 times this year (the first 3 were all regular season) and it was fine before he was tired the time I saw him in the AFL. Growing into 6’7 frame and has the elements for 50 CMD. Rotation guy for me and comfortably.
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1:42 |
How would you grade out your podcasting tools? |
1:43 |
: Fringy (reggaeton horn)
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1:43 |
Do you think Oscar Hernandez sticks with the Dbacks? No reason not to keep him as a defensive backup and wait on his upside? |
1:43 |
: I talk about this in TB list. Don’t think he does, but he’s a legitimate prospect. He’s legit. Ask me if he’s legit and I’ll say yes.
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1:45 |
: That’s all for today. TB list Monday and I’ve got 5 more lists all close to done that I should roll out soon. Recording podcast later today, I’d guess it goes up tomorrow.
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Kiley McDaniel has worked as an executive and scout, most recently for the Atlanta Braves, also for the New York Yankees, Baltimore Orioles and Pittsburgh Pirates. He's written for ESPN, Fox Sports and Baseball Prospectus. Follow him on twitter.
Rob Refsnyder… Can he be an average regular or better?
Stupid phone. (Or maybe stupid me, whichever.)
Can he be? Sure. He has a good hit tool, is scrappy and defensively versatile. Pete Rose did OK with that tool kit. Will he be? Hard to say…should be a good utility player at the very least.