Kiley McDaniel Prospects Chat – 12/5/14

Kiley McDaniel: You thought I would start having snappy intros now?

Kiley McDaniel: A couple timely things to point out. I wrote a feature for my last employer about how the Yankees drafted RHP Shane Greene off a a JV team from a Florida Junior College: http://sbb.scout.com/story/…

Kiley McDaniel: Also, we have video on the FG YouTube Page of new Tiger Shane Greene https://www.youtube.com/wat… and new D’Back Domingo Leyba (which should finish processing in moments) https://www.youtube.com/wat…

Kiley McDaniel: And here’s Dave’s thoughts on the deal: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Kiley McDaniel: Okay now to your questions

Comment From Mike
Just curious (I know there was a holiday in there), but it’s been a bit since the last organizational list came out. Who’s next and when (about)?

Kiley McDaniel: Phillies are next and that almost went up today. I was on the road and was looking at apartments for a move, but now I’m back. Rays research is done, so just need to write them up and I’ve already got the lists in good shape for 5 more teams, so they should come quickly now that my schedule opens up

Comment From Mike
Is Dylan Bundy still look at as a possible Ace or a back end guy with the chance to become a number 3 if everything breaks right/

Kiley McDaniel: Spent over an hour today on Orioles calls, so my mind is already on the topic. Harvey/Bundy is very close right now. Bundy had 55-60 stuff this year when he came back and he wasn’t throwing the cutter, which is an 80 pitch when his fastball is mid-90’s. He was 90-94 t96 but there’s some expectation he’ll get back to 93-97 t99 as he was before. Next year will tell us if the stuff comes back, but it understandably is quite back yet.

Comment From Ceej
Do you see any upside to Didi Gregorious or no?

Kiley McDaniel: Not really upside in the all star way most internet people mean it. He could be a 50 or 55 FV guy if the bat creeps up the league average (that’s 2-2.5 WAR) and turn into Alcides Escobar. Hasn’t quite shown those flashes yet, though.

Comment From Mike
Is Chance Sisco a star in the making?

Kiley McDaniel: I’ll take another BAL question since I have the notes right here. Potential plus bat with 12-15 homers and one scout suggested it could be a 70 or more bat. Some questions on the receiving and it needs work, but he’s still new to the position and the tools are there. Will be in top 5 of Orioles list but behind Harvey and Bundy

Comment From mtsw
Hypothetically, how fast would a 35 year old with no competitive baseball experience have to throw to be considered a potential major league pitcher?

Kiley McDaniel: 100 mph? 105 mph? There’s a lot more than just velo to go from an unknown old guy to potential big leaguer, so it would have to be so much velo that you could put up with all the other issues.

Comment From Bruce
Will Daniel Robertson stick at SS? Why is everyone saying the A’s needed to replace Addison Russell with this new guy from Toronto?

Kiley McDaniel: He didn’t have the range for me in the AFL and that seems to be what others think, too. More of a 2B longterm. OAK rebuilds the team every year, so they don’t strike me as needing a ___ of the future all over the diamond.

Comment From Bruce
Seems like as fans we use pitch counts for games, but innings for seasons. Does that make sense? When teams say a pitcher will be limited to, say 160 inings in a year, are they actually using inings, or pitches?

Kiley McDaniel: Teams keep track of both but obviously IP is an easier metric to keep track of for fans. I forgot who it was but there was a pitcher who was on a tight innings limit and got shut down before that because he was going so deep in each game pitches-wise for each at bat/inning/game.

Kiley McDaniel: A prospect on an upcoming list, that is. It was used as a teachable moment for the pitcher that you won’t get to pitch if you don’t conserve pitches, not try to strike everyone out, etc.

Comment From CecilFieldersButtPlug
what is a theoretical Moncada contract looking like?

Kiley McDaniel: I still think it’s 40-45M rather than the 30-40M you see quoted in other places.

Comment From JamesS
Is Glasnow a #1 starter in the making or will control and/or lack of 3rd plus pitch prevent him from achieving that? What do you ultimately see him becoming?

Kiley McDaniel: 70 FB, 60 CB, potential 50 CH, potential 50 CMD. That’s more of a 2 starter (ther’s 8-12 aces at any given time in MLB, so very few even potential aces in MILB) but Glasnow is 6’7 so he isn’t exactly easy to peg since there could be more in there as he grows into his frame

Comment From Mike
Whose the better mid tier prospect Zach Davies Tim Berry or Mike Wright?

Kiley McDaniel: Davies by a good margin. I’m a big Davies believer. 50 FB, 50+ CB, 60 CH, 50-55 CMD. He’s small but he can really pitch and has an outpitch.

Comment From John Daker
Of all the Orioles 2nd/3rd tier pitching prospects, I’m most intrigued by Parker Bridwell… Is there any reason to think he could develop into a #4 starter or a late-inning pen guy? Or are the control problems irreparable?

Kiley McDaniel: Bridwell ticked up late in the season, hitting 97 as a starter but he was very inconsistent with lower velos most of the season. He was a max effort type reliever in the AFL and looked like a nice 8th inning bullpen piece at times, 60-65 FB, 50-55 CH and CB.

Comment From JamesS
Can you rank these 4 college hitters from the 2014 draft based on who you think will become the best MLB players? Schwarber/Conforto/Zimmer/Fisher

Kiley McDaniel: I’d stick with that order. If Fisher can get to his 60 raw power and 60-65 speed in games, he could jump a couple spots.

Comment From Dylan
what do you think franklin barreto can become in the majors? superstar? league average?

Kiley McDaniel: Just wrote about him and posted tools here: http://www.fangraphs.com/st…He’s a potential .280 hitter with 12-15 homer that plays one of SS/2B/CF and is a plus runner. I find the definition of superstar differs person to person, so you can decide what that is. Potential quick-moving above average everyday guy.

Comment From Omolette
Is Brian Johnson criminally underrated?

Kiley McDaniel: Well I recently rated him here: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…so hopefully I’m not legally exposed by that opinion

Comment From adam
Who is the biggest prospect nobody is talking about?

Kiley McDaniel: Aristedes Aquino and Amir Garrett with Cincinnati both come to mind as low hype, enormous upside guys that could take off in 2015 http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Comment From JamesS
Could Jeff Hoffman end up being the best pitcher in the 2014 draft? Four plus or better than average offerings already and TJ out of the way is almost a blessing.

Kiley McDaniel: Absolutely. At his best, he had a 70-80 FB, 65-70 CB, 55-60 CH and 50-55 CMD. He’s on the shelf now and in his draft spring he never showed all four of those at their best, but on the Cape every team saw what I quoted above and that’s 1-1 in every draft class if he’s healthy and consistent.

Comment From Guest
Can the Pirates Joely Rodriguez turn into a decent back of the rotation starter? or does he profile more as a bullpen guy or depth option?

Kiley McDaniel: Up to 96 from the left side with flashes of average to above off-speed but the command lags, so probably more relief look right now.

Comment From Which of the Jays young arms ends up having the best career: Stroman, Sanchez, Norris or Hoffman?
How good does Franklin Barreto have to end up being for the A’s to come out on top of the Donaldson trade?

Kiley McDaniel: Kinda depends on how all the other guys in the deal perform too, right?

Comment From Guest
So did the Yankees win the deal?

Kiley McDaniel: Reviews of who won a trade minutes after it happened aren’t too useful for so many reasons

Comment From dave
Which of the Jays young arms ends up having the best career: Stroman, Norris, Sanchez or Hoffman?

Kiley McDaniel: I’ve been the high guy on Stroman and Hoffman all along. Hoffman still needs to come back from TJ and go thru the minors, so lots of risk there. Stroman could be a shutdown dude this year, as could Norris or Sanchez. I’m inclined to pick Hoffman but Stroman is probably a better “prospect” right now given less risk. Norris and Sanchez are both really good but also both have some yellow flags whereas Stroman is just a height thing.

Comment From JamesS
Is Josh Bell a first division regular or even a future all-star in your mind? He has certainly made up for his 2012 debut which was a season lost due to injury and put up great numbers in the cavernous FSL league and reached AA. ETA and how good do you see him being?

Kiley McDaniel: Probably 2016. The body has backed up a bit since signing so he might be a 1B sooner than we expected, but he’s a 55-60 bat and power, so he’s an everyday guy, but probably not an all-star type.

Comment From Guest
Kiley, what are your thoughts on RHP Shane Greene? Any idea where he played in Florida at a Junior College, and on varsity or JV?

Kiley McDaniel: I see what you’re doing here and I really love/hate it.

Comment From MC
Thoughts on Tyler Kolek?

Kiley McDaniel: Made Marlins calls this/last week as well. I’m always been the low guy on Kolek. I thought his appeal was size and velo and flashes of a breaking ball. This spring the breaking ball was way less consistent and after signing his velo dipped. If he goes back to throwing 98-100, there’s real concerns given less than ideal mechanics if his body can simply handle doing that. I don’t get the hype at the level people are talking about him. Easy top 100 guy and slam dunk top 10 pick, so I’m not killing the guy, but it’s a long way off with lots of risk.

Comment From jb21
Important Q: Why does the Prospect Chat Header say 9/19/14? I’ll hang up and listen.

Kiley McDaniel: Can I hang up and listen to someone else’s explanation? I just chat, I don’t set it up, so I have no idea.

Comment From Andrew
How do you value Tyrell Jenkins? As a Cardinals fan I was sad to see him go, but I admit he seems more of a bullpen guy.

Kiley McDaniel: It wasn’t linked to his player page, so I just fixed ithttp://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

My thoughts were quoted by Dave in his breakdown and I added tool grades to Jenkins’s page here

http://www.fangraphs.com/st…

And put up some recent video from the AFL

https://www.youtube.com/wat…

So that should answer your questions, I think.

Comment From Robert
Does an Over/Under of 3.5 for prospects in the Angels’ system with a FV of 50+ sound right?

Kiley McDaniel: Haven’t made any calls yet, but it might just be Sean Newcomb

Comment From Billy
What’s the outlook on Tyler Beede?

Kiley McDaniel: It’s really confusing. 90-94 at times, I saw him late before the draft 93-96 t99 with 55 CB and 55 CH, CH has been 60 before, so the stuff is absurd but the command, consistency, aggressiveness and such is all over the map. Rumors that he’s a head case. He was on a Vandy staff with guys that all made huge strides with a great pitching coach while he stalled to regressed. Hard one to figure but 2/3 starter upside.

Kiley McDaniel: Just posted video of him to the FG YT page as well: https://www.youtube.com/wat…

Comment From Johnny boy
Can Kevin Gausman break out into a top 15 starter sometime in the next couple years?

Kiley McDaniel: He’s got even more stuff than Beede and he’s taller and more consistent. 65 CH, 60 SL, 70 FB. He’s gonna figure it out soon. Could be a frontline guy.

Comment From Big Tim
Brendan Rodgers – I’ve seen Tulo comps…is this accurate or is Hardy more realistic?

Kiley McDaniel: Wrote about him and posted a video here: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…Tulo is bigger and more athletic than Rodgers. There isn’t a perfect comp, maybe Hardy is closer. potential 60 hit/power, 50 run, at least an avg SS glove.

Comment From Jimmy
Any more 2014/15 big name international free agents available and are the Yankees involve with

Kiley McDaniel: There’s one overage guy (Alex Paredes) coming off an age suspension in January that’s gonna get some money and there’s usually someone that pops up between now and next July 2, but no one NYY has been tied to that I know of.

Comment From Mike
Since the Phillies list is coming out, should I be prepared for the worst or is there a bit of good in there (outside of JP Crawford)?

Kiley McDaniel: Crawford/Franco/Nola are the only 50+ FV guys, lots of depth particularly via the Latin program. All the videos are on the FG YT page here https://www.youtube.com/use… just click on the search function and type in the current org to filter them.

Comment From Jack
How fast does Jeff Hoffman move through the system after his TJ?

Kiley McDaniel: If I knew that, I’d be in Vegas.

Comment From Chris
Where do you think Moncada would rank in your 100+ list of top prospects?

Kiley McDaniel: Easy top 10, probably top 5

Comment From Mike Schmidt (not that one)
What do the Brewers actually have in OF prospect Monte Harrison?

Kiley McDaniel: Crazy athlete, WR recruit for Nebraska, 60 runner, 55 arm, CF fit, 50+ raw power projection and some feel to hit, but very raw at the plate. Wouldn’t go nuts about his rookie ball walk rate just yet

Comment From JamesS
Gerrit Cole, Jameson Taillon, Tyler Glasnow, Nick Kingham, – Please rank in terms of who has the best career. Assuming Cole is the no-brainer at 1 at this point, but appreciate your input!

Kiley McDaniel: Flip Glasnow and Taillon

Comment From mtsw
What do you think is the most important attribute for determining if a catcher prospect will be able to stick at that position?

Kiley McDaniel: There’s the tools or arm strength, size, feet and hands but you also need the head to handle to rigors or catching and call a game, handle pitchers, etc. then also the finer points on receiving and all that. Not really one thing that matters the most, I guess the raw tools to have a chance are the most important

Comment From Corona
Sounds like the Padres are choosing Hedges over Grandal. Good idea?

Kiley McDaniel: I think so.

Comment From Marianas Trench
A general question for you on translation of college hitting prospects translating to pro hitters: which characteristics hold the most value predictively, and are they different for college players than players you see in the low minors?

Kiley McDaniel: Looking for same things but find them in different ways in college due to the lower level of competition, good hitters getting pitched around, facing lesser stuff, etc. Want to see the balance of short to the ball with strength for power, feel for the zone, looseness to adjust mid-swing, timing element and all that good stuff. That’s the same at every level.

Comment From Chris
How does the length of a Moncada contract work? If he’s signed for 7 years does that include when he’s in the minors? Also does his money count against the luxury tax?

Kiley McDaniel: Details here: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…The deal would be bonus only, like a draft contract. Would have to pay arb salaries when they come, then he’s a free agent again after 6 years of MLB service time. That’s due to him being subject to the pools, unlike Soler/Puig, etc who signed deals of a specific length while Moncada could be “under control” even longer but with no cost certainty.

Comment From Marianas Trench
Moncada moving to Florida is more about safety than being any closer to being cleared to play, correct?

Kiley McDaniel: Yes

Comment From Phillip
Does Jacob May have any star potential? After a slow start in turned in an impressive 2nd half.

Kiley McDaniel: Potential everyday CF, not really a star type http://www.fangraphs.com/st…

Comment From mtsw
Does organizational filler know its organizational filler? Or do teams mislead/delude players into thinking they have a shot at the big leagues even if they don’t?

Kiley McDaniel: Every team is higher on it’s players than everyone else and they know it. When there’s discussions about prospects in deals, teams know their grades on their own players tend to be a notch higher than what other teams will have. Clubs aren’t mass deluding themslves, they’re just biased to look for the good and think they can fix the bad. There’s probably 5-7 guys per org that are org guys for 29 teams and low end prospects according to the team that owns them.

Comment From John Kelly
Is Adrian Rondona step above many of the top IFA from the past few years… do not remember many cracking there teams top 5 before playing a game.

Kiley McDaniel: TB list isn’t a strong one at the top, though they are very deep. I have him 6th right now, in the 45 group and with only 2 players in the 50+ FV group (both just 50’s right now), the least of any team so far. He isn’t a generational July 2 guy, just one of the best from this year.

Comment From a eskpert
A non modern question: Would Barry Bonds have been in the majors at a younger age if he didn’t go to Arizona State (where he didn’t work very hard), but instead got drafted and went through the minors?

Kiley McDaniel: Generally, HS prospects go to levels about 1.5 years ahead of what they’d do if they went to college for 3 years. Obviously, lots of exceptions and differing circumstances.

Comment From nick
Thoughts on Marlins prospect Trevor Williams?

Kiley McDaniel: Pitchability 50-55 stuff across the board back-end type. Likely a 45 FV.

Comment From Gabes
You seem to be incredibly well connected for a dude who isn’t terribly old or famous (like Ken Rosenthal), why are so many people willing to give you info? (I mean this honestly, as I’m a huge fan of what you’ve done here)

Kiley McDaniel: I’m gonna tell Ken you called him terribly old.

Kiley McDaniel: Thanks, though. I referenced that in my article this week: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Kiley McDaniel: I think it’s a combination of knowing many guys for the 10 years I’ve been in/around the game and being at a bigger outlet helps along with already getting some stories, so people see me as a guy that will be the first with stuff, so I can be trusted.But I think the biggest part is that I worked for teams, I write reports that are my opinion and no one else’s and I go to a ton of games. I’ve talked about this on the podcast, but I get exponentially more info from scouts just talking casually at games than I do texting/emailing them cold. There’s a flow to sharing info w/people you’re comfortable with in person and people that are putting in the work to understand what/how you work, not just picking up the phone and expecting you to spill your whole pref list. That’s a slow process.

Kiley McDaniel: Alrighty that seems like a good stopping point. Gonna hit the phones for more list research today and put up at least 2 lists next week while I’m wandering around the lobby at the winter meetings, telling Ken that you people think he’s old.