Kiley McDaniel Prospects Chat – 2/13/15

Kiley McDaniel: It’s taking everything I have to keep working and not listen to Drake’s surprise album that dropped last night. So, here I am, talking to you people instead.

Comment From 2legit2quit
is the album legit?

Kiley McDaniel: Checked out some of the previews of the tracks on iTunes, sounds like it’s low energy/introspective/R+B Drake, which is my least favorite Drake

Comment From Andy
So what’s the best Cuban food you’ve had?

Kiley McDaniel: La Teresita in Tampa is right next to the Yankee complex and is pretty darn solid along with being crazy cheap

Comment From DC
Gun to your head, when is Kris Bryant called up?

Kiley McDaniel: Why do people keep putting a gun to my head?

I’d guess if not opening day, then within a month

Comment From Eminor3rd
Running out of witty non-witty intros!

Kiley McDaniel: Don’t challenge me bro

Comment From TF51
What the latest that you are hearing on frontrunners for Moncada? Still Yankees, Red Sox, Doders?

Comment From David
Do you have an update on Andy Ibanez and is there anything you can tell me about him?

Kiley McDaniel: I wrote something about this literally minutes ago, so you people are in luck once again: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

I break down the 4 Cubans everyone is talking about, potential fits with teams, pricetags, where they’d land on a top 100, tool grades, scout buzz, medical speculation, marketing forces…like basically everything.

Comment From Andy
I recently heard your voice on the podcast for the first time. I did not expect that to be your voice.

Kiley McDaniel: I’m choosing to take all possible slights on this chat as compliments. Thanks!

Comment From Curtis
You may have answered this before but which Non-FG Baseball writers do you enjoy reading? Any other favorite prospect writers outside of FG?

Kiley McDaniel: I joked earlier this week that me and Ben Badler see each other once a year, always on the same tropical island. Seems suspicious or funny in some way, but I haven’t figured out how to tell the joke yet. All the guys that are out there are friends, guys that I read and guys that I see at least once a year at events and games: Callis, Mayo, Law, Badler, etc.

Comment From Derek
Is this the time of year when you start getting an idea of which teams July 2 guys are signing with?

Kiley McDaniel: Indeed. I’ve got a list of 72 solid six figure prospects for July 2 that I’ve scouted in the last 6 months and have video of them all. I have teams that either have a deal or are heavily rumored to have a deal for 9 of my top 11 projected bonuses. I would edit the video, write the reports and whatnot, but I have a top 200 coming out on Monday, so I’m busy with that at the moment. Since the Cubans are most time sensitive, I wrote them up now.

Comment From baltic wolf
HI Kiley: I’m looking for a hitter with a very high ceiling for my upcoming prospect draft. I’m willing to wait on him since my other prospects are pretty good. Does Alex Jackson fit the bill? ETA?

Kiley McDaniel: Sure. Low-A this year, then could move quicker than level per year if he hits like expected, but should still take a couple years. In the 20’s of my top 200 at the moment.

Comment From Andy
I thought we were fun. Chatting with us shouldn’t be seen as work! And what do you mean “you people?”

Kiley McDaniel: You have pinpointed each of the jokes I was making in the intro so congrats

Comment From Pirates Hurdles
Now that he is going to play baseball full time, is there anything there with Anthony Alford?

Kiley McDaniel: Crazy tools are still there, so will be very interesting to watch in 2015. May even open at Low-A despite lack of experience.

Comment From RotoLando
What’s the subject of the upcoming podcast?

Kiley McDaniel: We start with Cubans, then move on to Carson’s questions, then close with the list of interesting things/stories I heard on my DR trip, which I think is really fun but what do I know

Comment From Josh I
Thoughts on Athletics’ SS prospect Yairo Munoz? Getting a lot of hype within the fanbase, but I don’t think he warrants the hype just yet. Higher ceiling – Munoz or Rangel Ravelo?

Kiley McDaniel: Heard some very positive and some very lukewarm reviews. Everyone agrees there’s everyday SS tools there, but differ on the likelihood of hitting the upside. 40/45 FV borderline.

Comment From Jimmy McGill
Can you tell your colleagues that Minor League WAR is a horrible idea and will lead to all kinds of bad analysis and opinions? Thank you.

Kiley McDaniel: Man, you’re gonna crush Cistulli’s spirit

Comment From Andrew
I’ve lost track, how many Cubans are about to sign now or might be available soon?

Kiley McDaniel: There’s about 50-70 out of Cuba and not with an MLB team right now. I just saw 18 of them workout and I wrote about the two that were there and worth getting excited about (Olivera and Alvarez) today. Moncada and Ibanez are the other two. I wouldn’t get too focused on all the other ones. They either haven’t had open workouts yet or aren’t that good.

Comment From John
While I know it is pretty clear that the NY media way over-hypes their prospects, what’s your thoughts on Matz – front of the rotation stuff? And I know its not quantifiable, but he grew up a Mets fan on Long Island, does that make it any more likely he exceeds expectations?

Kiley McDaniel: #2/3 starter stuff, but only one year of success and coming on the heels of TJ, so need to see a little more before I totally buy in like some have. In the 60s of my top 200.

Comment From somewhere in the midwest
I heard Hunter Renfroe threw a baseball thru a tire from 1000 feet away.

Kiley McDaniel: I heard that, but about Bill Bratsky

Comment From Bryce J.
Is there a cure to an addiction to sunflower seeds?

Kiley McDaniel: I substitute other snacks like beef jerky or tail mix and go low sodium on the seeds, or try to chew on toothpicks. It’s tough to kick the habit of doing something with your mouth while you sit still so long. Sometimes I’ll just say a bunch of stupid stuff out loud to keep my mouth active but I think you guys already knew that.

Comment From Ciscoskid
Does the amount of the recent Cuban defectors hurt Moncada’s chances of getting that record signing bonus that was speculated? Kind of hard for teams to blow their budget for 3 years for just one player when you could blow your budget for several players.

Kiley McDaniel: If anything it increases it, because the concern with blowing past the pool this late if you aren’t the Yankees is you didn’t get 3 years worth of players. Now you can sign Alvarez and Ibanez and feel better about doing it.

Comment From somewhere in the midwest
Can you please rank these in terms of future awesomeness: Mazara, Renfroe, Judge

Kiley McDaniel: I have Mazara, Renfroe, Judge, but they’re all in the 35-60 range on my list, so that’s really freaking close

Comment From Anonymous Coward
What do the Braves see in Hector Olivera? Why spend money on a declining second baseman whose contract would probably only cover their rebuild years and a 2B prospect about to hit the majors?

Kiley McDaniel: Anyone is worth it for the right price

Comment From Alex
What’s the upside of Roberto Osuna? Seemed to have front of the rotation stuff prior to TJ.

Kiley McDaniel: I’ll say #3, but may adjust that up a notch to 2/3 if the stuff is the same next year with a little more command. Stuff was just okay pre-TJ and was notably better afterwards, kinda surprising the Jays.

Comment From Shawn
When compiling your report on a team, do you talk to mostly that team, or outside orgs? Seems like outside orgs would be more unbiased.

Kiley McDaniel: I talk to both, which you have to do. The team knows little developmental details and the plan going forward which you need to know. They also see signs from backfields and instructs on guys that are showing signs of a breakout that other teams will be less likely to know. They also know the short-season and DSL guys much better and don’t mind being honest about them that early since there’s little hype. But, yes, the rival teams give you a better sense of the overall value of the more stable, known prospects

Comment From Bill
Hearing this draft will be heavier on college position players than in recent years. Any names to watch?

Kiley McDaniel: How about like 125 names to watch? http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Add Jacob Nix and these guys to that list as well: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Kiley McDaniel: Surprising amount of college shortstops this year, too.

Comment From Vslyke
Are the Braves planning to be big July 2nd players? I’ve seen some speculation from you and others that they might go over the limits.

Kiley McDaniel: Yes, they might but by no means have they already committed to doing so yet. They’re in the mix on all these Cubans and in the higher levels July 2 guys as well, so the buzz of them being more aggressive is well founded.

Comment From Nelson
When you finish your proespect series, will you type any answers to chat questions or just paste links to every single question?

Kiley McDaniel: I already hire interns and robots to do my chats anyway, so what’s the difference?

Comment From Shawn
Do certain team’s scout have a reputation within MLB where the other teams know they aren’t very good (don’t have to say which team(s)?

Kiley McDaniel: Yes, but more specific scouts that a whole team’s staff. Scouts also have pretty detailed thoughts on which scouting directors are good/bad since one or two good/bad picks can make a guy appear to be better/worse than he is.

Comment From Colby
is your top 200 list going to be as in depth as your organizational list?

Kiley McDaniel: Well if I just re-published the long reports from the lists in the top 200, it would take 20 minutes to scroll down the page. But, yes, it will have more than just the names. There will be descriptions and links and add’l info.

Comment From Jared
Is it just me or does Hector Olivera look like he’s 50?

Kiley McDaniel: Covered that in today’s article. Age questions are real and they matter for Olivera more than the Cuban kids in their 20s.

Comment From Shawn
Do you think either Anderson Espinoza or Christopher Acosta have TOR potential?

Kiley McDaniel: They’re both 16/17 so that’s really hard to say with any certainty. Anything can happen, but they’re more mid-rotation upside guys at this point. Wrote them up here: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Comment From Hugo Z
If your salary guess on Olivera is correct, wouldn’t it seem odd for the Braves to go after him?

Kiley McDaniel: Not really. They have some money to spend and he could be a nice gamble. There’s a better chance he oustrips that contract and becomes a trade asset than the typical $5-7 million reliever.

Comment From Donnie
Does Jorge Mateo start in Low A Charleston or Short Season Pulaski?

Kiley McDaniel: Charleston

Comment From Jobu-Cerranos Locker
Are you putting out a top 100 list? If so, when? Thoughts on Tim Anderson? Huge potential right?

Kiley McDaniel: Yep, have him around 50. Super toolsy dude: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Comment From Pat G
What are the chances Piscotty grows into 20 HR power? He’s a big dude right?

Kiley McDaniel: He has 20 homer raw power, just not in games. It’s an adjustment and the question is if he hits for the same average if he taps into the power in games.

Comment From Guest
When do we start seeing the lists for the Angels, A’s, etc.?

Kiley McDaniel: Those are the next two after the top 100, so maybe a week from today

Comment From Shawn
Do you think Trey Ball can make it work in the rotation or was he a miss?

Kiley McDaniel: Too early the tell, should be rotation guy in minors for another year or two at least. Don’t count him out yet.

Comment From @MaineSkin
Would you select Addison Russell or Yaon Moncada in a Rule 4 tomorrow?

Kiley McDaniel: I have them both in my top 8 prospects overall, but not in the top 2. So that’s really close. Would lean Russell due to the longer track record and more defensive value.

Comment From NYM
Is Gilmartin ever going to be more than a below average back of the rotation starter at best?

Kiley McDaniel: That’s about it

Comment From Pat G
Lewis Thorpe a good bet to break out in 2015? What sort of prospect is he?

Kiley McDaniel: A very good one w/a chance to breakout in 2015 as you suggest. More here: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Comment From JC
which prospect has the bigger ceiling David Dahl or Manuel Margot and is more likely to hit it

Kiley McDaniel: I have them within 5 spots of each other on the top 200 and they have a similar level of experience, so the upside/risk is pretty similar. Slightly more upside to Margot, slightly better chance to hit upside to Dahl.

Comment From Rico Brogna
When teams (or scouts) evaluate ‘make-up’ what are they really looking for? Coachabilty? work ethic? chemistry with teammates? Helping old ladies across the street? Not a kicker of puppies?

Kiley McDaniel: Nebulous combination of all of those things and more. Puppy-kicking is still a divisive issue in the industry.

Comment From Curtis
Who has been the most hyped prospect of the past 20 years? Strasburg? Harper? anyone look to join the short list in the near future? We heard of Harper at an early age….

Kiley McDaniel: Both Upton brothers, Hosmer, Pedro Alvarez, yeah that’s much of the list

Comment From Bad
Whats the word on Jose Berrios? Still have potential and what is his ceiling?

Kiley McDaniel: In the 20s on my top 200 so yeah lots of potential. More here: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Comment From Andy
What’s the cutoff for the top 100+ list? Basically ranking all the 50+ FV guys?

Kiley McDaniel: Yep, 140 50+ FV guys, then included the 45+ FV guys, which came out to 200 even

Comment From Curtis
Are the scouts who sit behind home plate at minor league games ever accessible to the common fan? If so, how might one strike up a brief conversation?

Kiley McDaniel: They’re basically sitting at their desk doing the most important 3 hours of work for the day, so not really. If you catch them at the right time, maybe you could chat for a bit or sit near them and just soak it in, but not really a time to chat them up.

Comment From erik
Since you have heard rumors of possible DR kids signings with the dodgers, knowing whom they might be, would it be worth foregoing those kids future talents for Moncada and Yadier?

Kiley McDaniel: To put that in context, Moncada is 8th on my top 200 and Yadier is 57th. Not one of the July 2 guys from last year is in the top 200. You tell me which one you’d rather have, even if it’s a bunch of July 2 kids.

Comment From Mike
Do you know of any good amateur talent in the Atlanta area that will be draft eligible in the next year or so?

Kiley McDaniel: 2015 Draft HS: CF Daz Cameron and 3B Cornelius Griffin and SS Jalen Miller and 2B/LF Jahmai Jones are 1st/2nd round types and RHP/C Tristin English, 1B Brandt Stallings, RHPs Nick Neidert and Dakota Chalmers are top couple round types
2015 Draft College: GT’s Matt Gonzalez is top 5 rounds with a good season
2016 Draft HS: OF Seth Beer and LHP Jonathan Gettys are the top guys
2016 Draft College: Robert Tyler, RHP at UGA is a top 10 pick type

Comment From Kiley McDaniel
When do I plan on finishing the prospect series (all teams, top prospects list, org ranks)?

Kiley McDaniel: Couple more weeks? Not sure.

Comment From Guest
How big are the Phillies going on July 2nd?

Kiley McDaniel: Potentially very big

Comment From Yankees!
I love Jose Ramirez’s raw stuff but is his future value dimmed because of a stacked bullpen?

Kiley McDaniel: And he can’t stay healthy

Comment From c
Could the Yankees land Bickford at 16?

Kiley McDaniel: Don’t think he’ll last that long

Comment From Big Joe Mufferaw
Are you a fan of the current IFA rules?

Kiley McDaniel: Sounds like MLB is angling to make them worse, so I guess I have to be

Comment From Yankees!
What does Rio Ruiz’s upside look like? What about his ETA?

Kiley McDaniel: Lots of detail here: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Kiley McDaniel: For reference, if you have a question about a prospect, type his name in the search box at the top of the page, then look at his recent articles. Good chance I’ve written about him pretty recently.

Comment From Big Joe Mufferaw
I read an article on RAB yesterday about prospect fatigue (players dropping in the rankings simply because they have been prospects for so long and people expect more and more, and even if they keep moving up, they move down the list) Ex: Gary Sanchez. Do you buy that as a legit issue?

Kiley McDaniel: I suppose, but I try to avoid falling into that trap. Sanchez has real concerns that have nothing to do with prospect fatigue: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Comment From Yetty
Yoan Lopez wasn’t on your D-Backs list a few weeks ago. Where would he slot? How does he stack up against The Nats Lopez who burst onto the scene last year?

Kiley McDaniel: Yoan is in the 150-200 range. Reynaldo is around 50 or so. Yoan is a maybe starter, possible reliever with above average stuff, Reynaldo is likely a starter and has plus stuff, hits 100 mph.

Comment From dude
Will the Yankees sign one of the Cuban players before the start of the season? Are they aiming to sign more than one? Olivera a fit?

Kiley McDaniel: They’re in the mix for all three of the ones that are subject to bonus pools, so maybe? Haven’t heard them on Olivera, but it’s just money so maybe they’re in stealth mode.

Comment From Tommy Lasordid
Have you ever been paid by a major league for your opinion? Any desire to be an MLB team scout?

Kiley McDaniel: Yep, already worked for 3 teams in scouting before this job. The internet is a better option for me right now, but would consider going back to a team for the right job, conversations happen every now and then…but this job is pretty sweet.

Comment From Tommy
Josh Donaldson only getting $4.3 million seems awfully unfair…

Kiley McDaniel: That’s the system his union agreed to, so take it up with them

Comment From c
Luis Torrens as a possible breakout prospect candidate?

Kiley McDaniel: Yep. Jason Kendall like tools: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Comment From Dan
I know he was just on your 40 or other names list for the Rox, but could Kevin Padlo make a Ryan McMahon like jump if he rakes in Low-A at 18? I think he showed WAY more polish than pre-draft indicated.

Kiley McDaniel: Yep, he’s one of the guys that moved from off the list to on the list after it was published, still 40 FV but upwardly mobile

Comment From JIMMY
Vincent Velasquez. What is your opinion on him and when will he be in majors?

Kiley McDaniel: Big injury questions, but #3 starter stuff. Needs to stay healthy and pitchers that can’t do that often keep getting hurt, so we’ll see.

Comment From Matt
Could Ozhaino Albies be the next Mookie Betts-esque peak prospect?

Kiley McDaniel: Not exactly sure what this means but I think the answer is yes

Comment From STLScott
Would Greg Bird be in your top 100? How much difference do you see between him and Josh Bell?

Kiley McDaniel: Got lumped together in the top 200 ranking process and both got shifted down a bit, to just outside the top 100

Comment From Damon1
What’s your evaluation of the Yankees July 2nd class at this very early stage? Do you seem a bunch of them as Top 100 guys in the next couple of years?

Kiley McDaniel: Wrote a ridiculous amount about all of them, including video of almost all of them here: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Lots of upside, but none are on top 200 radar just yet. Anything can happen in a few years.

Comment From zigs
Kiley good work as always. Mind giving me a little more info on Jon Gray? Does he still look like the surefire ace from last year and what do we see from him this year if he makes it to the bigs?

Kiley McDaniel: Lots of detail here: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

I’ve always been the low guy on him, more #3 starter for me.

Comment From Cole
Thoughts on Zach Collins from UM?

Kiley McDaniel: 55 raw to all fields, feel to hit but 1B/DH fit, so he needs to rake. Could go 1st round with two more big years.

Comment From Rory Gilmore
What is Bradley Zimmer’s power grade/ceiling?

Kiley McDaniel: 45+ now, 50+ future raw, probably about 50 future game power. projectable guy with LD approach, so still pretty uncertain how it plays out

Comment From Curtis
Who’s your favorite prospect that (essentially) you alone, compared to other experts, are high on?

Kiley McDaniel: Sounds like Albies is my guy, but I think Keith had him in the middle of his top 100, so I’m not really that alone. I mean, cosmically we all are alone but I don’t think that’s what you mean.

Comment From Shawn
Do your shirts fit you like Yoan Moncada’s fit him?

Kiley McDaniel: Mine are a little tighter

Comment From Andrew
I’m in the L.A. area, what amateur players should I try to see? (Since College Baseball is here)

Kiley McDaniel: UCLA is solid with Poteet and Kaprelian, but two D2 guys are better than both, Staumont at Azusa Pacific and Ponce at Cal Poly Pomona. HS ranks are deep as usual. Chris Betts, Kolby Allard, Kyle Molnar, Brendon Davis, Kyle Dean, Drew Finley are guys to watch there.

Comment From Norman
on the 20-80 scale, how would you grade this july 2nd class? is there an overwhelming favorite for best hitting prospect?

Kiley McDaniel: Better than last year, so maybe 60? Still pretty early.

Comment From Nate
On a scale of 1-10, how big are the Dodgers J2 agreements? I’m trying to comprehend what type of haul they would be giving up to go over slot for Moncada in this period.

Kiley McDaniel: One big guy is all I know of, but it’s one of the top guys

Comment From Cole
What rounds do you foresee Daniel Reyes possible going in?

Kiley McDaniel: 1st round talent, but lots of swing and miss questions and LF fit, so probably more 2nd-3rd unless he goes nuts this spring

Comment From dude
It appears you are good at your job. We tend to appreciate that here.

Kiley McDaniel: thanks, bruh

Comment From Colby
What will the astros do with Tony Kemp if he continues to produce?

Kiley McDaniel: Probably continue to tell me that I’m ranking him too low

Comment From Dave
Speaking of the Yankees July 2nd class, did they choose the wrong year to go all out?

Kiley McDaniel: Well they signed like 8-10 guys and every year has a good 8-10 guys. The difference is if the top couple are elite or just very good. Really tough to know that a year in advance with 15 year olds.

Comment From Clock
Adrian Rondon-how far away is he and is he legit?

Kiley McDaniel: short season in 2015, Low-A in 2016…so far away but totes legit

http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Comment From dude
Are you going to rank the draft eligible players before June?

Kiley McDaniel: Already did here but should have an update in another couple weeks or month once we get going

http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Comment From Hi Erix
Hi Kiley – I read fangraphs every day, but I’m never sure what to look for when you post videos of guys. Any general tips for what to look for when watching them? Like for us 9-5 desk jockey types. Right now it looks like guys throwing balls and swinging bats.

Kiley McDaniel: Well that is all that’s happening. For hitters, you’re looking for looseness, athleticism and bat speed in the video (you can’t really see raw power since you can’t see where the ball goes). For pitchers you’re looking for good athletic, repeatable simple delivery and movement on all pitches, and I’ll mention velo below that. Just need to get reps so loose/athletic/easy is something you can see rather than have someone tell you it exists. Yadier Alvarez has all of the things I mentioned in today’s article.

Kiley McDaniel: Alright that’ll do it for today, time to get back to that top 200 ish