Kiley McDaniel Prospects Chat – 3/17/15

Kiley McDaniel: Alrighty sorry for the last start let’s get rolling

Comment From tigel
man this chat is pretty legit.

Comment From Bret
It can be hard to separate the media needing content in Spring Training from what the team is actually thinking, but there sure is a lot of talk about Miguel Castro especially, and even Roberto Osuna, breaking camp with the Blue Jays. Castro is even scheduled to go three innings against the Yankees tonight. Is this insane?

Kiley McDaniel: Well you want to see what you have in ST, so stretching the young guys versus top competition is your best indicator without adding them to the 40-man. Still hard to see either break with the club for development purposes, but good performances here will speed up their timetable.

Comment From meatballsfly
is there any chance daniel norris begins the year in the MLB?

Kiley McDaniel: I don’t follow the day-to-day buzz quite as closely as other writers here for MLB spots, but my assumption is Marco Estrada and Aaron Sanchez take the 4/5 spots and Norris is the top callup at AAA. Although he could take Sanchez’s spot and shift Sanchez to the pen if Norris really pitches well in ST.

Comment From Phillies113
Sikes Orvis from Ole Miss. Does he have a career ahead of him in MLB? Also, please tell everyone that I am not a troll. Thank you!

Kiley McDaniel: Sikes is a solid college player and org guy in the minors. Tough to see anything more than a cup of coffee here.

Comment From Brad
What does the best case scenario for Rasiel Iglesias this season look like? 170 innings ERA around 3? bunch of Ks?

Kiley McDaniel: Yeah, I mean that’s pretty good so tough to say he could do better than that having very little starting background. I still lean toward him being a long term reliever, but the tools are there to starts, there’s just no track record to go off of–he was a reliever in Cuba.

Comment From jocephus
i saw dillon tate on friday. he was good. hows that for analysis??

Kiley McDaniel: I’m totes scared of this competish

Comment From Joe
Pirate’s Catcher Elias Diaz seems like a guy to me that gets overlooked by Prospectors sometimes. His arm is crazy and he has improved with the bat the past two seasons. What are your thoughts on Mr. Diaz?

Kiley McDaniel: Solid 45 FV now that could be an everyday guy with a couple more adjustments. I’m on board.

Comment From Bobby Blownilla
Why the peak prediction for Pompey of an OBP in the .335 range when he was in the .370s and .390s last year? Thanks!

Kiley McDaniel: Good question, it may be higher than that but we have very little sample size at the upper levels, so there’s some projecting the walk rate to reduce a bit as the league sees him more and the pitchers he faces get better. Also, he was hitting over .300 in the minors, which he won’t consistently do in the bigs.

Comment From Vslyke
Out of all the Braves 27 and under OF candidates, who is the most likely to turn into a legit big leaguer: Cunningham, Almonte, Terdoslavich, or Eury Perez?

Kiley McDaniel: All 40 FV types with a chance to become a solid 45 and an outside chance for a few years as a 50 if it goes perfectly. I like Almonte the most of the group, but Eury Perez has more speed/defense so less is asked of the bat.

Comment From GSon
Wow.. This Kiley guy comes into the chat ten minutes late like he thinks he’s Dave Cameron…

Kiley McDaniel: I could repurpose this as the opening line to a rap

Comment From Matt
What is your opinion on teams holding back players to gain an extra year of control (i.e. Kris Bryant)? Do you think it is something that needs to be changed?

Kiley McDaniel: The rules make it the smart move and there’s always something a player can be working on, so it isn’t 100% disingenuous. The MLBPA needs to negotiate in the next CBA to change the incentives for teams so they aren’t pushed to do this. It’s their fault for making the system this way in an attempt to get established big leaguers more money…which is why it’s unlikely to change.

Comment From Shwing
What would be better, Piscotty as a 4th outfielder or Piscotty continuing to marinate in AAA? Seems like dude is what he is unless he has a power breakout. Odds on that?

Kiley McDaniel: Some guys have proven they can hit in AAA, so it wouldn’t be useful to force them to make adjustments (adding game power) at a level he’s already performed at, against worse pitching, then promote him and hope it all works. He seems ready for a new challenge and can fit in the lineup in a few ways.

Comment From Big Joe Mufferaw
Any risers on the prospect list this early in spring??

Kiley McDaniel: Heard positive buzz on some guys, like Jomar Reyes and Gilbert Lara, but no one has moved up a notch yet.

Comment From Redmile
You had previously indicated that the Phillies were connected to a J2 prospect in the over $3 million level. Are they likely to be active in the $1-3 million area also? Hoping they blow the limit big time instead of just sticking their toes in. Thanks.

Kiley McDaniel: You’ll know when I write the next July 2 thing in a week or so (after the lists are done). Also, teams also aren’t done spending, so if they don’t show up in the next few articles, that doesn’t mean they won’t be doing something important. There’s plenty of uncommitted guys out there.

Comment From Nathan
Thoughts on Kolby Allard. His seemingly effortless delivery and stuff have me very interested for the Phillies at 10. Do you think he will be in that range?

Kiley McDaniel: I’ll see him a week for tomorrow in NC. He’s somewhere in the 5-15 area depending on his spring.

Comment From dennetOTM
One reason I’ve heard for the Phillies sitting out the bidding on Yoan Moncada is that they’re locked in to verbal agreements with players who aren’t eligible to sign until July. To me, that seems like a crazy reason to not be in on Moncada. What am I missing?

Kiley McDaniel: That wasn’t the reason the Dodgers only offered money post-July 2 (they don’t have deals done yet), but it was the same in practice: they wanted a full year of going over the pool and all the players that would give them instead of one player. More on who is going over and all that later.

Comment From Bobby Blownilla
What your gut instinct on Mondesi. I know he has a huge ceiling, but he seems to already be getting the “better in real life than fantasy” tag.

Kiley McDaniel: Well he’s a speed and defense SS that hasn’t really hit in the minors yet, so he’s gonna keep being better in real life than fantasy. He’s tough to evaluate given that he’s years young for each level and has subpar stats, though they look alright in context. He’ll probably hit better in the bigs than at many of his MILB stops.

Comment From Big Joe Mufferaw
There seems to be a big disconnect between some reports on Refsnyders’ Defence. I have heard some say it is avg and some say, he needs a lot of work. Where do you stand on this?

Kiley McDaniel: Fringy. Fine. If he hits, it won’t matter much.

Comment From Hammer Dont Hurt Em
Favorite place to eat in Tampa?

Kiley McDaniel: The Refinery and Star Anise and Bern’s and Taco Bus

Comment From Jim
What type of player could Alex Verdugo turn into, what’s his ultimate upside?

Kiley McDaniel: Mentioned here that he’s kinda like Joc Pederson, although Verdugo could also be a pretty legit pitching prospect

http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Comment From Spladash (NC)
I’ve heard varying predictions on Spencer Adams’ projection. I guess that’s why they’re projections. Will he be the ChiSox’s #1 prospect this time next year?

Kiley McDaniel: With a big year and Rodon graduating, I could see it, but Tim Anderson would have to be pretty bad.

Kiley McDaniel: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Comment From Bren
Since MLB seems intent on an international draft, do they have the capability (competence) to pull off a worldwide event that might generate some more interest and give fans a chance to see their teams add even more talent?

Kiley McDaniel: I’ve heard some rumblings about MLB reaching out to partners that would help them pull off the physical events (like pre-draft combines or regional MLB showcases in the US), so they’re clearly moving toward that goal.

That said, no one in the mainstream cares about July 2, so the only add’l interest a worldwide draft would get would be to say how crazy it is a 16 y/o Dominican was drafted over this guy from LSU I just saw on TV…like how it’s insane that Ryan Howard’s salary went from $500K to $4M in one year…that kind of audience.

I don’t know if anyone can pull off this kind of event, not because of the physical logistics, but because of the government cooperation, which I’ve talked about a lot in the past. I don’t think any new fans will pay attention to this that didn’t pay attention to the draft. The two markets should be separate and I hope MLB figures that out soon.

Comment From Grand Admiral Braun
Does Thor’s upside surpass the recently injured Wheeler?

Kiley McDaniel: Healthy Wheeler is better and has more upside

Comment From John From Toronto
Hey what can you tell us about Josh Naylor? Is he just a shorter Maple-dipped Rowdy Tellez? Where does he go in the draft?

Kiley McDaniel: I never really bought into Naylor this summer. He’s LH and has 60 raw power and a decent swing, but I saw him struggle at times and I’m always wary of a body like that…Vogelbach adjacent last time I saw him. There’s some 3rd-4th round buzz, but not for me.

Comment From Clive
How does Stroman’s injury affect his development? Is he just missing one season, or should we expect him to be worse going forward?

Kiley McDaniel: Ideally it affects nothing long-term and he’s back to normal in 2016. who knows if that’s how it plays out, since a whole host of other things could go wrong in rehab or not quite re-learning something the same way, etc. Shouldn’t change his projection, but there’s new risks now.

:

Comment From meatballsfly
respect your opinion, where are you on kendall graveman?

Kiley McDaniel: I’m here on Graveman: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Late-rising unheralded senior sign took huge step forward last year and seems likely to find spot as back-end starter. Looked good in ST outing I saw last week.

Comment From Big Joe Mufferaw
Talk to me about Jose Pirela, Reggie Jackson called him the best hitter in the system. I know he has odd swing mechanics, but can he become more than a super utility player at the MLB lvl?

Kiley McDaniel: Backup at best for me. I respect Reggie as a player, but he’s been a punchline for a long time as an evaluator/coach.

Comment From Daniel
Is Manny Banuelos being forgotten about? His recovery from TJ has taken a while but shouldn’t he soon be getting the stuff back that previously made him a top prospect? Can he still be better than a mid rotation starter?

Kiley McDaniel: I put him in the top 200. More here: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Comment From Walt
Ian Happ – did you expect this much power from him? Already 5 HRs which is basically his high the last 2 seasons and 6 doubles

Kiley McDaniel: Good college hitters with power do stuff like this when they’re better than everyone else. He’s a 55+ hitter with 55+ game power. Probably the best bat in the draft.

Comment From Slapck
Hi Kiley, Can one ST boost a guy up the ranks significantly? (cough Greg Bird cough)

Kiley McDaniel: I’m already the high guy on Bird. And no, ST usually doesn’t boost a prospect that much, if at all.

Comment From John
Happy St. Patrick’s Day mr McDaniel

Comment From Sean
Kiley, Am I the only guy out there still carrying the torch for Rymer Liriano.? I feel his 20/20 potential is still within reach despite his lost TJS year. Is he the definition of post hype sleeper or are the skills just not what were projected? He’s still only 23.

Kiley McDaniel: Had him in my top 200 as well: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Lots of questions about “should i give up on” or “is it too late” or “so and so is underrated by everyone” and I have them as a 45 or 50 FV and on the top 200. Check those lists, people!

Comment From Total Clown
What is Anthony Alford’s game power ceiling? (Is it legit?)

Kiley McDaniel: Just wrote a bunch of words about this: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

50 to 55.

Comment From Big Joe Mufferaw
What K/9 would you expect from Jacob Lindgren in his first season (assuming he pitches around 50 innings)?

Kiley McDaniel: 10

Comment From Billy
You were higher than most on the Reds pitching prospects. With Cingrani in the bullpen, and Lorenzen possibly closing in on a bullpen role, do you still feel bullish on their young pitchers? Do you see these as temporary moves, moves made to clear the path to the rotation for other, more talented prospects, or just “win-now, best team on the field” decisions?

Kiley McDaniel: These two things don’t change how I feel about their young pitching. Cingrani wasn’t on the list and was probably a bullpen guy long-term and Lorenzen used to be a closer, so that was always a possibility, though likely isn’t the end of his starter career.

Comment From Eric Weinstein
Kiley – thanks for all your work. As a Cubs fan I’ve been very intrigued by your previous comments that one of your team sources said Bryant would be a CF if he were on that team. Do you share the opinion that Bryant could pull off CF? And given the Cubs organization strength in the IF compared to CF, do you think it would be worthwhile to try? Thanks.

Kiley McDaniel: Probably not any longer than he can play 3B, so wouldn’t really be tempted to try it. Plus Almora is right behind him and can only play there.

Comment From Sterling
With Yu Darvish out for the season with TJ, what are the chances of Chi Chi Gonzalez making the rotation? If he does make it, what kind of projection are we looking at? Also, are there any other prospects in the Rangers system who might be better options than Chi Chi?

Kiley McDaniel: Oh boy are you in luck I wrote a bunch about this here: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Comment From Miles
Can Quantrill still challenge for 1.1 even after the injury?

Kiley McDaniel: The 2016 draft class is crazy deep. Rankings on that coming soon. I wasn’t leading the Quantrill 1-1 bandwagon, he’s just one of the top 10 quality guys. Now he’ll be returning after the season starts in a crowded field. Hard to see him going top 3.

Comment From Tipenix Cameron
How old are you?

Kiley McDaniel: 29

Comment From Spalple
How likely is Severino to endu p a reliever?

Kiley McDaniel: I’ll go 70/30 starter over reliever

Comment From Nick
Sorry if this has been answered already, can you give an update on Brady Aiken? Also, early draft question, if you had 2 first round picks that would be the time to go for high upside guys right? Just from a game theory perspective that makes sense.

Kiley McDaniel: Depends on the specific player, can’t just dogmatically go for one type of player. Aiken should be pitching on Thursday, about 45 pitches or so for his first outing of the year. I’ll be down in Florida once he gets going full-speed to take a look.

Comment From Tipenix Cameron
Can you give me your thoughts on J.R Murphy? The yankees REALLY like his defence and from what he has done with the bat, it seems like he could be a avg MLB hitter. What does he future look like?

Kiley McDaniel: Here’s all the words I wrote about him here: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Murphy is somewhere around Refsnyder as an upper level position player ready to contribute to the big league team, but scouts are a little more wary of Murphy’s chance to become an everyday player. He’s a 50 hit, 40 power type without a ton of offensive impact, but he’s better defensively, with a plus arm and at least average defensive skills. Some scouts still see some aspects of defense for him to work on, but indications from the analytical folks are that he’s an above average framer, so if that holds up and he reaches his offensive upside, there could be an everyday catcher here.

Comment From SMC
Yasmany Tomas. His ST line looks not dissimilar from Abreu last ST. Is he that lost?

Kiley McDaniel: He looked really bad at the plate in the game I saw. Heard the 3B defense hasn’t been good. Not bullish.

Comment From Larry
Thoughts on Wendell Rijo?

Kiley McDaniel: My report on Rijo from here: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Rijo is an aggressive hitter and his advanced feel to square it up bails him out, though he’ll need to tone down the approach at the upper levels. His solid-average power, fringy speed and average defense profile well at second base.

Comment From Curt
How come Randy Johnson never needed TJ? How come Pedro never needed it? What the hell is going on.

Kiley McDaniel: Bodies differ. Smoltz had two TJ’s with a motion that looked like it might cause injuries…and he’s still a HOF.

Comment From Joe – Canada
What would you say the Hit/Raw Power/Game Power FV for Nick Castellanos is?

Kiley McDaniel: Might all be 55’s

Comment From King Kunta
thoughts on to pimp a butterfly? and what happened to hedges?

Kiley McDaniel: Only listened to a few track so far, seems like a multiple listens needed type of album.

He’s in the top 200 and he hasn’t hit in two years

Comment From mtsw
Does Jason Garcia make the Orioles roster? Bullpen situation looking very crowded for them, barring a trade or two.

Kiley McDaniel: I think he will

Comment From Hoff
Given the Cingrani bullpen demotion, does this speak volumes about what the Reds think about their top pitching prospects like Stephenson, Raisel Iglesias, and Michael Lorenzen? What say you?

Kiley McDaniel: I think people are reading too much into this. He fits in the pen. They wouldn’t demote a guy that doesn’t deserve it because the guys behind him are good.

Comment From John
why is everyone shocked about the bryant situation, this literally happens every season

Kiley McDaniel: Everyone latches onto a topic like it’s sportscenter with Tebow and TO and Favre, etc. Bryant is the guy now and that’s the #1 topic related to him

Comment From David
What’s the chance Rob Refnsyder becomes a top-12 second baseman at his peak?

Kiley McDaniel: 5%

Comment From Tribe Fan
Which tool is the most difficult To scout and project according To you?

Kiley McDaniel: Hit tool. Took me 6 articles to explain how to do it

http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Comment From Guest
Hes not as late as Jeff

Comment From Jon
I’ve seen your report on CWH prospect Tim Anderson. What would you want to see in his development this year that could improve his chances of being above at at MLB?

Kiley McDaniel: More patient approach is all, really

Comment From Nick
Greenville too conservative a placement for Moncada?

Kiley McDaniel: Can’t be too conservative with a guy that hasn’t played in awhile that has tons of hype. Want him to succeed early.

Comment From Illinois Guy
so I’m a student at Illinois, and I’m getting pretty hyped about Tyler Jay. Is there any chance he’s actually legit or am I delusional?

Kiley McDaniel: Very good chance to go in the 1st round

Comment From Michael
Hearing so many conflicted reports on Tropeano, one guy said he’s a garuanteed reliever, another pegged him as a potential ROY candidate. What do you think?

Kiley McDaniel: With two disparate opinions, the truth is usually somewhere in the middle

Comment From Vic
Will Brandon Finnergan be a SP?

Kiley McDaniel: I think so, but not a slamdunk

Kiley McDaniel: Gotta go and wrap up the STL list for tomorrow.

Also, there’s still a ridiculous amount of questions about players I’ve written at length about recently. If I didn’t answer you question, click around and see if what you want is already at the site.

The most recent prospect list, with links to all the other ones: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Top 200 list: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

And also, there are some reports in normal articles, so go to the player’s page on FG (search at the top left corner of the site for his name) and look at recent articles about him