Kiley McDaniel Prospects Chat – 7/14/15

Kiley McDaniel: I’m back home after a day full of BBQ and travel delays yesterday. Have an article I’m wrapping up on interesting pro prospects I’ve seen recently and the oft-teased big prospect update (TM) is also in the works

Comment From the real brian
Would prospect Earl Sweatshirt receive an odd Future Value?

Kiley McDaniel: I see what you did there

Comment From Phil
After starting the year terribly, Dominic Smith looks to be slowly turning things around. Have you seen anything encouraging in his swing, or is this just a short hot streak?

Kiley McDaniel: Caught a game of him in Florida and hope to get another on my next trip down later this month. Two scouts I talked to said he was the best hitter in the league and the raw power is still there, so this is just one of those “power will show up in games later” situations. The track record of really good hitters getting to that power is very positive, so as long as the contact is still good, I think it comes together. The pre-draft Todd Helton comp is still in the ballpark.

Comment From Bren
There are a lot of conflicting reports out there on Gavin Cecchini’s defense. Can you fill us on anything you might be hearing?

Kiley McDaniel: He can play short, but it’ll never be fantastic.

Comment From Mario
If you could compare Ozhaino Albies to one current player right now who would it be? Jose Altuve?

Kiley McDaniel: Eh that’s kinda forcing it, but that might be the best one that’s out there, given the size and bat control. In Albies report (linked to on his FG page), I mention Furcal and Lindor. Albies having plus speed, D and arm alone makes him pretty different than Altuve. Albies is really unique.

Comment From Eminor3rd
Do you ever scout NY-Penn League games or is that too early to care much? I work for one of the teams and would love to host/meet you.

Kiley McDaniel: Never too early to care. I was the one that wrote up a 14 year old Venezuelan kid that 6 months later everyone is talking about (Kevin Maitan). I live in Atlanta, so that’s out of my easily reachable range and the higher levels of the minors are higher priorities.

Comment From Camp
Does Brendan Rodgers crack the Top 15 midseason list?

Kiley McDaniel: Not that high, but I’d think still top 50.

Comment From GPT
Who are the favorites to land Vladimir Gutierrez? And any update on Eddy Julio Martinez?

Kiley McDaniel: Gutierrez hasn’t had workouts for scouts yet and these Cuban players often change a good bit, often for the better between defecting and first open workouts, so it’s too early to know price or teams on him yet.

Got some word this weekend that the Giants likely don’t pay what’s necessary to land Martinez after paying Lucius Fox $6 million, so I think the Dodgers are the landing spot for Martinez as I projected a few weeks ago. May be a little lower than the projected $11 million, too.

Comment From Pirates Hurdles
Futures Game thoughts? Anything stand out in a positive or negative manner?

Kiley McDaniel: I tweeted that Brad Zimmer’s raw power went from about 50 to about 60 in the last 12 months, which I didn’t see coming. Trea Turner went from about 40 to about 50 in the same timeframe–he hit one in the second deck to left field at the end of his round. I hadn’t seen Nick Williams hit a ball that far before (off the black building in CF). I hadn’t seen some of the pitchers before, but they were all roughly where I thought they’d be. 102 from Frankie Montas was the highest reading I’ve ever gotten.

Comment From Thrillis
Gilbert Lara has been tearing it up, while Adrian Rondon has scuffled so far. Both have been playing against older competition any thoughts on both? How soon before we start making comps with R.Devers in regards to the bat with Lara?

Kiley McDaniel: Rondon is hitting 9% below league average as a 17 year old facing some guys 4 years older than him. That isn’t scuffling. I saw him for a game a few weeks back and it’s all still there.

Lara continues to rake and play shortstop, though I think he’ll end up at third. I’ll be interested to hear what scouts have to say about these two after instructs when I start slotting them near guys in the high minors.

People thought I was too high on Albies last year but he’ll be even higher this year. Some though 50 or so was too high for Devers. Seems like the super duper elite hitters in the short season leagues are a good bet on these lists to rise.

Comment From ayzzya
Has Jacob Nottingham mashed enough A-ball pitching this year to excite you as one of the better catching prospects in the low minors?

Kiley McDaniel: Yep, still more offensive-minded type catcher, but had made tons of progress. One Astros source was pretty meh on him and almost got me to leave him off the others of note section last offseason, but safe to say we’ve all changed our tune at this point. At least a 40 FV and probably a 45 FV at this point.

Comment From owensurett35
Kiley, what makes a draft pick closer than others to reach the big leagues?

Kiley McDaniel: Just the feel for performing. For pitchers, it’s command as long as the stuff is at least average and really helps to have a plus pitch. For hitters, it’s plate discipline and feel to hit.

Kiley McDaniel: Just checked the schedule and looks like Touki is going tomorrow at 1 pm at home v Charleston (NYY affiliate), so I’ll probably go check that one out.

Comment From GSon
What can you say about Jorge Soler.. is that talent real?. or should the Cubs cut and run?

Kiley McDaniel: Young kid with huge bat speed and raw power that’s striking out too much. He can fix it. Don’t panic.

Comment From Larry
Bradley Zimmer promoted to AA this week. Whats a realistic ETA for him? Late 2016?

Kiley McDaniel: I would say 2016, yes.

Comment From Mike
Do you ever hear scouting reports from the DSL? Seems like box score watching isn’t worth it given how low the talent level is.

Kiley McDaniel: Yeah, but scouts don’t really watch that league, so it comes from team officials that are down there for something else and catch a few games, or PD guys watching their own team. So, it’s more whispers and indications that hard data since it’s so far away and just a couple short looks.

Comment From Guest
What do you think about Nick Banks?

Kiley McDaniel: Looked like top-10 talent last summer, changed his swing this summer to allow him to go to all fields better, which happened from what I saw with Team USA last week, but I think he’s gotten too mechanical and isn’t letting his athleticism show up at the plate. Still a first rounder, but more questions now.

Comment From Guest
Do you like Sherman Johnson as much as Carson does in the Fringe Five? Thanks

Kiley McDaniel: I don’t think anyone likes him that much, including Sherman’s mother

Comment From Giants Fanboy
Did you like what you saw on Beede’s day on the Futures Game? Can you share some thoughts? Thanks a lot!

Kiley McDaniel: 89-91, plus cut in many cases, didn’t throw a ton of off-speed, but showed solid feel. He was 93-96 t98 with above average offspeed the last time I saw him, just before the draft. I’ll give the Giants some leeway here on developing him, but it seems weird to completely change him this quickly into a pitchability, solid-average stuff type. That said, plenty of big league starters have less stuff, so it’s not like this can’t work and SF has a good track record with arms.

Comment From Sandy Kazmir
Since he was traded you never did an offseason write up of now-Rays super prospect Jake Bauers. I can’t find it on the Padres nor Rays links so is that something that you would like to rectify going forward? 19 year olds in AA obliterating the league (157 wRC+ since 7/2) are hardly a dime a dozen.

Kiley McDaniel: He fell between the lists, but he’s written up in the Wil Myers trade article linked to on Bauers’ player page http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Gave him 55 hit before the season, and I think I only gave out a handful of 60’s, so I was on it before the season, it’s just a tough profile as a 1B without huge power. Bauers was on the same travel team as Dominic Smith and JP Crawford in Jupiter a couple years back. That’s some bats.

Comment From Mike C
Have your long-term impressions of Tyrell Jenkins changed at all?

Kiley McDaniel: Have been told by a few scouts that the stuff have been about average this year, so probably down a bit but not considerably so. Should see him soon now that he’s at the affiliate closest to my house.

Comment From G
Did you gain any insight from the Future’s Game? How much value can be gained from scouting an “All-Star” type game such as that one?

Kiley McDaniel: Good for gauging raw power and peak velos, then you just take what you can get on defensive looks and for offspeed/command, feel for game type stuff. Some is just seeing physical changes, like how Schwarber has more life and quickness behind the plate than he did in my last look.

Comment From Mario
Connor Lien is a player that had 5-tool potential out of high school but took him a while to put together. Do you know anything about him?

Kiley McDaniel: Wrote him up here http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Big tools, was on the same HS team with Walker Weickel, Jesse Winker and Nick Gordon. As long as Lien is performing, he’s a guy.

Comment From bravos
Thoughts on once primo relief prospects Corey Knebel and Arodys Vizcaino? Word is Vizcaino might slide in at closer once Johnson gets traded….

Kiley McDaniel: Vizcaino was up to 99 on a rehba start recently and I heard he’s behind Johnson as the next closer…so, yes, I’d guess he gets a shot at some point this year

Comment From Mike
Javier Guerra now has 11 HRs…do the grades on his power need to be upgraded or is he just running into a couple?

Kiley McDaniel: Fringy raw power if I recall my notes from earlier this year correctly, plays to 12-15 per year or so in a good scenario, could easily be a tick less.

Comment From GSon
Bradley Zimmer was just promoted to the Akron Rubber Ducks.. does he stay in CF or is he destined to be a c-OF’er with speed, power and decent batting peripherals?

Kiley McDaniel: The pre-draft comp was Christian Yelich and he’s a tweener as well. I’d guess RF eventually, but maybe CF for a bit longer.

Comment From Matt
Just had fantasy minor league draft. Took Trea Turner over Orlando Arcia and Tim Anderson. After reading a bunch, seems like he might have the highest potential upside. Thoughts?

Kiley McDaniel: In broad terms, I think I’ll have Arcia and Turner in the top 40 or so and Anderson around 50-60…so not an enormous difference, but Anderson is 3rd of the group

Comment From Bryce
Do you ever see games in the Texas League? Seems to be a bit of a blind spot

Kiley McDaniel: Blind spot in terms of traveling to Texas for MILB games, yes. For information, no. Got 3 scouts that saw McCullers this season in a 24 hour period when Chris Mitchell wanted some notes before McCullers first MLB start.

Comment From Larry
Do you collect all the wacky giveaways you get at minor league parks?

Kiley McDaniel: Generally don’t get them because either I come in before the gates open for BP, or guys that look like scouts are passed over when they hand stuff out. Big bag = no giveaways. Maybe my scowl impacts that as well.

Comment From Brandon
Do you see Kyle Holder or Jorge Mateo as the Yankees future SS?

Kiley McDaniel: I’d go with Mateo for now, but Tyler Wade is in that mix and I still believe in Angel Aguilar.

Comment From beerdude!
HEY ENO! Was wondering about your thoughts on Allen Webster ROS — his swstrk% is low but z-mov x-mov and his grips seem to be on point in a dynasty league his BAR is on the uptick as well?

Comment From Guest
Are the Phillies going to go big on international free agents next year?

Kiley McDaniel: Wouldn’t surprise me, but I’ve already heard strong rumors of 3-4 teams going over next year and they didn’t come up. I would bet that’s up to MacPhail at this point and if he waits much longer to make the call, there won’t be any elite guys left…but there will always be Cubans popping up.

I have notes on a handful of high level Cubans that haven’t been reported yet as defecting and are more the Yadier Alvarez type–young, not a high profile guy in Cuba, but a big prospect now–and I’ll share once things get settled. You could plan to go way over next year and not sign any $2M+ July 2 guys.

Comment From Joe H
Braves DSL OF Randy Ventura is putting up great numbers. Is he a legit prospect?

Kiley McDaniel: 80 runner, CF fit, lots of contact. Nice low bonus find by the Braves, will obviously have to prove it at higher levels, but has a carrying tool already.

Comment From JC
I know it’s been like a month, but has any 2015 draftee’s performance surprised you thus far?

Kiley McDaniel: Nice to see Rodgers performing. Not a surprise by any means after he mashed against good pitching with wood bats, but struggled a bit with aluminum against bad pitching this spring.

Comment From Bryce
Is Nick Williams a top 50 guy at this point? The Gallo/Mazara/Williams/Brinson four pack looks ridiculous right now.

Kiley McDaniel: I think he might be

Comment From Giants Fanboy
When can we expect the big prospect update Kiley? Maybe three weeks from now?

Kiley McDaniel: That’s about the over/under. It’s big.

Comment From Billy
What’s the raw power and speed of Anthony Alford?

Kiley McDaniel: Report here: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

55 raw, 70 speed. Huge priority guy to see when I head back down to Florida.

Comment From soaktherich
The Red Sox picked only one HS pitcher (Logan Allen, 8th round) in their whole draft (along with a couple late-round JUCO hurlers). Is this unusual? Some kind of strategy or do teams’ boards just shake out like that sometimes?

Kiley McDaniel: BOS has mixed all four quadrants (hitter/pitcher, HS/college) well for years, so I don’t read into that at all. Sometimes a mixed strategy will end up looking like a deliberate lean one way or the other when it’s just a random distribution of players in reality. Like when you get 7 heads in a row on coin flips.

Comment From Zach
Who is looking like the best July 2 from last year? Espinoza, Lara…?

Kiley McDaniel: Based on pre-season rankings, I had 1. Lara (SS, MIL, 45+ FV), 2. Rondon (SS, TB, 45 FV) and 3. Brayan Hernandez (CF, SEA, 45 FV) if I remember correctly, then Juan DeLeon (RF, NYY), Anderson Espinoza (RHP, BOS) were among the top-rated guys in the next group of 40+ FV guys.

Comment From Jose Valentin
How much can stolen base numbers in the minors be attributed to poor defensive catchers?

Kiley McDaniel: And pitchers that are slow to the plate and runner with good instincts…that’s like 60% of it. Raw speed doesn’t tell you a ton in the low minors. Lots of 45-50 runners with 5x the SB they’ll ever get in the big leagues.

Comment From The Boat
What’s your take, if any, on NYY SS Hyo-Jun Park? How does he compare to other guys in their system like the soon-to-be-top-100 Jorge Mateo?

Kiley McDaniel: Tools like another Korean SS Hak Ju Lee. Here’s the report from this offseason

SS Hyo-Joon Park (Video the only non-Latin prospect in the recent July 2nd group is an 18-year old Korean shortstop that draws both lazy and accurate comparisons to Rays SS Hak-Ju Lee; Park is a plus runner and lefty hitter that has the skills to stick at short and the active swing that’s common overseas, but had some trouble against top arms in instructs)

http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Comment From teabag
javier guerra have the highest floor of infielder in greenville?

Kiley McDaniel: Well, the floor of any player in A-Ball is never making the big leagues, so in that way they’re all the same. Tied with you and me.

Comment From Sean
Should I be worried that the Diamondbacks haven’t signed Swanson yet? Or is getting a high pick next year enough to not worry so much?

Kiley McDaniel: He almost definitely signs, but the player you would get next year may also end up being a better prospect, so you should be good either way WAIT WAIT IS THAT DAVE STEWART’S MUSIC???

Comment From Danny
Any reports of improvement of Gary Sanchez’s defense? Does he have a shot at staying at catcher?

Kiley McDaniel: Always had the tools to stick, sounds like it’s been better performance wise this year.

Comment From Jordan
Hi Kiley, first time asking a question here…I have never heard a baseball analyst say that a team is too aggressive in the international market. So my question is, are some teams too aggressive, and if the awnser is no, the question is, why aren’t ALL teams more aggressive?

Kiley McDaniel: Well the July 2 market is a positive ROI investment, so even if you pay $1 million more than the next highest bid on every player, you’re still “making” money on the deal. So, in that sense, any amount of money, short of doing it with your eyes closed, is a good idea.

The reason all teams don’t go nuts is owners are generally old rich dudes that get pleasure from their big league team winning, which they can enjoy in person and brag about to their rich friends, rather than people like us getting excited about a teenager that’s 5 years away. There’s a bunch of other factors, but that’s the main issue.

Comment From soaktherich
How long was it between the time you heard about the Touki trade and the time that you said to yerself “I had that kid on the podcast; I bet I could get a pretty sweet exclusive-ish follow up interview with him”?

Kiley McDaniel: What else would I ask him?

Comment From LASims
Have you ever considered taking your talents to South Beach?

Kiley McDaniel: I will be going there in a few weeks so I’m STRONGLY PRO

Kiley McDaniel: and also STRONGLY BRO

Comment From soaktherich
In your sortable J2 board, is your “Proj.Team” now the actual team that the player signed with?

Kiley McDaniel: Nope, haven’t updated those, but 95% of the time, it’s right. The prospect update will add some clarity on this issue.

Comment From Jimmy Johns
How many hours a week do you actually work? Do you pretend to work harder than you actually do?

Kiley McDaniel: shhhhhhhhhhhh

Comment From JDYANKS
Is Bradley Zimmer’s comp still Yelich, or has he elevated out of that expectation?

Kiley McDaniel: Yelich produced 4.3 WAR last year. That’s a great outcome where Zimmer was drafted. Could still be even better than Yelich, tho.

Comment From soaktherich
Reading Dave C’s trade value piece, I was reminded that there’s still no way to easily compare trade values of players or prospects (so, is a 70 FV buy worth two 60 FV guys or three? Is Dave’s #10 guy worth the #20 and #30 guys together?). There needs to be a formula that combines things like ceiling future WAR, floor future WAR (I’d average the two), position, injury risk, contract value (I’d put it on a log scale), years of control, etc.; all the things that factor into trade value, to end up with a score that is additive, so a guy with a 900 trade value (TV) is worth two guys with 450 TVs or three guys with 300 TVs. It should also apply to both pro players (Dave C’s list) and prospects (your list) since those two groups get traded for each other all the time. Can you just do that already?

Kiley McDaniel: Funny you mention that

Comment From Derek
Michael Reed doesn’t seem like the prototypical corner OF, but Nori Aoki strikes me as a reasonable if somewhat imperfect comp: 350-ish OBP, low power, good speed, above avg RF defense. Would you have him in your Top 100 right now?

Kiley McDaniel: Brewers guy mentioned that to me this offseason. Not a crazy opinion.

Comment From RS
Who has the highest velo FB in the minors? Ray Black, Anthony Reyes?

Kiley McDaniel: and Montas

Comment From aight
Does Nick Williams have 60+ raw power? Could he be a potential 60/60 hit/power guy in the future?

Kiley McDaniel: It’s 70 raw. Hit the farthest ball in BP two days ago. Tools are there for 60/60 but hard to predict that with less than a season of this kind of performance. Appears he’s made changes, tho.

Kiley McDaniel: Alrighty I have some other stuff to work on so that’ll be all for today