Kiley McDaniel Prospects Chat – 9/22/15

Kiley McDaniel: Lets have a baseball chat

Comment From GPT
Other than Christian Arroyo, who has impressed you the most in the Giants system this year? From what you’ve seen personally and the reports you get.

Kiley McDaniel: There hasn’t really been a huge riser in their system this year, but I like the guys they’ve added: Lucius Fox from July 2 and the draft crop of Phil Bickford, Jalen Miller, Chris Shaw and Andrew Suarez. Those guys are all 45s and 50s FV-wise to a system that needed some of those.

Comment From Rick
Can Austin Riley stick at 3B?

Kiley McDaniel: I didn’t think so last summer but he dropped some weight and now it looks like yes.

Comment From You up?
Will you ever have a chance to finish the tool grades for MLB players? Seemed like a cool idea

Kiley McDaniel: For all the big leaguers, that’s something I hope to have ready by Opening Day, but tossing PV/FV on all the big leaguers is something I could do much quicker.

Comment From Jack
Think Kike Hernandez will have much value moving forward in years to come? Is he destined for a utility role?

Kiley McDaniel: Pretty sure I mentioned in an earlier chat that a team told me they targeted him last winter to be their starting SS this year, but LA traded for him before they could. So I think he may still get that chance, but given the budget in LA, he’s more of a multi-positional guy or starter in case of injury.

Comment From Miles
Do you recall a time that you went to see a prospect with a certain level of excitement/trepidation and were completely blown away with how much better/worse a prospect looked? Does this happen often?

Kiley McDaniel: I saw Anderson Espinoza a couple weeks back with high expectations and he beat them. Same with Ozhaino Albies earlier this year. It’s tough given how I see players, because I’ll see most guys of note as a July 2 guy or on the HS showcases and when I see them there, there’s very little expectations.

So, covering the amateur world pretty closely means you kinda gradually discover these guys, often with no hype or just being told look out for this guy without much else to go on. Popup latin guys at the low levels of the minors seems to be an exception and now Jluy 2 guys that get locked up before the showcases from outside the DR (so they don’t go to the events) is another.

I discovered in my notes/video that I saw Albies at a July 2 showcase a few years ago in the DR when he was listed at 140 lbs. Needless to say I didn’t see a ton of ceiling there at the time, particularly with 50 guys I knew nothing about running around at once, you kinda disregard the littlest dude.

Comment From Zach
Brewers last two drafts under Ray Montgomery? A lot of late round fliers for unsignable players and underwhelming starts for Kirby & Gatewood starting to make those two drafts look thin?

Kiley McDaniel: This year was his first draft, so Gatewood/Harrison/Medeiros aren’t him, that was Bruce Seid before he passed away. Kirby was known to be an injury flier but at that bonus/pick it made sense to gamble on the known performance. I’ve liked Ray’s drafts going back to ARZ because he isn’t scared to take the guy that’s slipping for no apparent reason. Trent Clark was a great example of that this year, Braden Shipley a few years back.

Kiley McDaniel: I was talking to a friend with a team yesterday about the concept of drafting better than average over the long haul and we didn’t think there was a simple approach (tools, upside, HS, etc.) that would give a competitive advantage if done for 10, 15, 20 drafts in a row to where all the noise is eliminated by sample size. There’s a power to the industry consensus as a proxy for talent level and taking the guy (if there is one) that slipped a while for no good reason…that seems like it could be one of the strategies that needs to be in your quiver to get an advantage.

Comment From some guy
Have Sean Newcomb’s mechanics improved at all to help reduce his BB%?

Kiley McDaniel: They’ve always been fine, it’s more experience on the mound to develop more feel, improve sequencing and the focus to repeat for a whole outing. It should come with time to give him enough command to start.

Comment From Theo Hoyer
What are your thoughts now on Mark Appel?

Kiley McDaniel: The pre-draft concern about stiffness in his shoulders and general non-elite athleticism appears to have gotten a little worse. I know people mention mental makeup with him as a silver bullet to explain his struggles, but I think if he can find a delivery that works for him, all of a sudden you don’t hear that anymore.

Kiley McDaniel: I talked to that same friend I mentioned a few questions back about makeup, where “confident, failure doesn’t stick with him” and “arrogant, doesn’t take responsibility, thinks its always someone else’s fault” are easy to spot at the time, but with an 18 year old that’s heavily incentivized to obscure any potential problems, it’s tougher to notice. And let’s say the kid is more A than B, does giving him 7 figures and good press help move him from A to B? Can we measure someone’s susceptibility to change mentally before the money/praise is given to him? None of this specifically applies to Appel (more guys where makeup is mentioned as explanation for struggles), but the idea that makeup is something a scout can throw a grade on and not worry about again is kinda silly.

Comment From Dan
Has Greg Bird’s performance in the bigs thus far impacted your assessment of him? Personally, I’m surprised at how hard he hits the ball.

Kiley McDaniel: Showing this kind of game power this early is the only real surprise. Kinda figured he’d strike out a good bit and hit below .260 in his first couple hundred ABs. I’d say overall encouraging since game power was going to dictate if he gets to play next year or rides the bus between NYC and Scranton a bunch.

Comment From Fitch McTeer
Jorge Lopez just got called up. You gave him a 55, why the big jump? Do you anticipate any other nice prospects getting called up the rest of the way out?

Kiley McDaniel: Stuff was up a tick (92-95 t97 this year) and the command was a little better too. Was always a projection guy with three pitches and some feel, so this is what people were hoping would happen.

Comment From Logan
ETA on your 2016 draft update? Any chance for a sneak peak at your top 5 prospects/future grades on each? I need something to look forward to after a dismal year from my Braves

Kiley McDaniel: It’s in process, so a week or two. Blake Rutherford, AJ Puk, Jason Groome will likely be the top three, in that order.

Comment From Fitch McTeer
Richie Shaffer’s bat seems to have taken a step up. What would you grade his bat & game power now for FV? Can he make enough contact to be a starter?

Kiley McDaniel: Heard some rumblings of this from TB people after instructs and stuck him on the others section (35 FV) because without that, I wouldn’t have included his name anywhere on the list. Turns out those indicators were telling and he figure out his approach problems. I’d have him as a 40+ or 45 FV now. Still think there isn’t enough contact to start, more of a corner platoon power guy. Maybe a Marcus Thames type?

Comment From Joanna
Hi Kiley, I’m 17 years old and definitely want to be a baseball scout. How is difficult for a woman to get into this world? Have you ever know a scout work for an MLB team who was a girl? Thank you for your chats, always inspiring.

Kiley McDaniel: There aren’t many women in scouting, but in some ways that could help you since the game is getting more open minded in a number of different ways, while the close-minded guys are aging out. I’ll tell you what I tell everyone that wants to get into scouting: go to as many games as possible, write reports about all of them and don’t bother scouts while they’re working, but try to start a conversation when they have their guard down.

Comment From Mike
Is Luis Guillorme a legit prospect or is his bat not good enough? I hadn’t heard anything about him before the season.

Kiley McDaniel: Seemed limited a bit in high school, but saw him a few weeks back and he’s improved. There’s enough power that the bat can play and he was squaring it up for me, has solid numbers. Always been a good defender, so now he’s on the radar.

Comment From Torrey
Who is the next Latin player to breakout for the Phillies next year?

Kiley McDaniel: That GCL team was loaded. RHP Adonis Medina is the dude to watch there, but Jonathan Arauz and Arquimedes Gamboa are both SSs to watch, along with some others. Cornelius Randolph obviously another big one.

Comment From Gabes
If you’re running the ChiSox do you try Frankie Montas out as a starter in AAA next year, or just plug him in as the 8th inning guy at the bigs?

Kiley McDaniel: They can try and I wouldn’t fault them, but I think he’s a reliever after having seen him start 3 times.

Comment From Eminor3rd
Bro Benintendi is a hoss for real

Comment From Gabes
Will Tim Anderson develop enough plate discipline to be an everyday guy? Is this dependent on what his eventual position is?

Kiley McDaniel: I don’t think he needs to do much more, given the speed/power/defense combo and low bar to clear as a SS at the plate to be a starter. He could be an all-star if he does all those things and I like his odds better than most to do it since he’s still new to baseball and has limited ABs, but guys generally don’t change at this level, just make little adjustments.

Comment From Guest
How do you evaluate a player like Raul Mondesi who has never repeated a level, but has never put up huge numbers and is still really young?

Kiley McDaniel: It’s really hard. He obviously looks good when you watch him, so its not like you can bury him on a list, but guessing how he’d perform if he was in Low-A like most of his prospect brethren is pretty tough when he hasn’t performed well in years, but he’s facing pitchers 4-5 years older than him.

Comment From Rick
To what extent do you think reader demand for your work comes from fantasy baseball? Does that bother you or is it irrelevant?

Kiley McDaniel: A good bit, but you can usually tell by the question wording what the motivation is. There’s still lots of fans that just want to know about their team. “Rank {list of 9 players} for me” is pretty obnoxious, but you can find answers for that stuff on the site if you click around, so I’m not hanging them out to dry.

Comment From Blue Cat
Does a guys age and promotion schedule make it harder to get a good feel for a player… for example, Brady Lail was promoted to AA as was OK as a 21 yr old, then promoted to AAA and was meh as a 22 yr old. To what extent do experience/age factors cloud the judgement of his performance?

Kiley McDaniel: Another tough one to interpret even after watching the player. The Low K rate potential back-end guy that’s young for the league and isn’t really trying to strike guys out. Every now and then, one can have a 6-8 K/9 rate all the way up the chain and/or notably improve with MLB instruction, like say Chris Heston. It would be dumb to try to guess which ones will do that, so you kinda just have to be okay with being wrong sometimes and hope you can call out the guy as he’s emerging in the big leagues for some partial credit.

Comment From Bronson
How does scouting the AFL compare to other professional leagues/venues?

Kiley McDaniel: Way more prospect heavy, so someone like me focusing more on the name guys will always have guys to watch in every single game. There’s plenty of games a few hours from me that I’ll skip because there’s only 3 guys on the field that I need to see or that have a certain level of prospect status and I have to use my time efficiently with so many players to cover. Otherwise, it’s pretty much the same, other than bigger stadiums and less fans. Oh, and autograph people everywhere for some reason.

Comment From CDM
Will David Berg ever be anything more than a middle reliever whose claim to fame is being the first player from the 2015 draft to debut in the big leagues?

Kiley McDaniel: Probably not

Comment From brian
they’re not prospects anymore, but how did Joc Pederson compare to Jay Bruce when they were coming up? Is that a strong comparison moving forward?

Kiley McDaniel: Eh kinda but not really. Both were top 30 or so prospects near the end of prospect status, but Pederson I think I had around 10-15, so he was probably seen as better and in part since he can play some CF and Bruce couldn’t. I already know someone will take this to mean that Pederson’s 2nd through 8th years will be statistically identical to Bruce, but that’s not how comps work. Just saying there’s some similarities in size/skillset at this juncture.

Comment From Steve
Sam Travis or Travis Shaw?

Kiley McDaniel: Sam Travis by a good margin

Comment From Bogey
Hello. When are you going to start the Evaluating The Prospects series?

Kiley McDaniel: Haven’t decided but should be in the next month or so. Posting them, I mean. I’m already lining up my notes and rankings updates and such and have been for over a month.

Comment From Jack Glasscocks Cup
Do Nellie Rodriguez or Bobby Bradley have a future at 1B in Cleveland? Bradley looks like he’s more than athletic enough to play the field.

Kiley McDaniel: Yeah he’s the better prospect, more tools and upside. Could probably play some LF if needed and came up as a 3B, but 1B is where he’ll end up eventually.

Comment From Kingpin
What are some of your favorite minor league diamonds to visit – does the atmosphere/ambiance make as much of a different to a scout as it can for a fan?

Kiley McDaniel: I like Clearwater the best in the FSL. Charlotte is probably best in the IL. Greenville and Charleston are my favs so far in SAL. Memphis and Nashville are the only PCL parks I’ve been to but both are very strong. Bham and Montgomery in the SL are both nice and I’m told Rancho is the best in the south end of the CAL, which is the only one I’ve been to.

Comment From Dave
Phillies fan thinking of the future question: what pitcher would you take #1 if the 2016 MLB draft was today?

Kiley McDaniel: LHP AJ Puk from Florida, but that’s still muddled for now, lots of guys in the mix.

Comment From Mike
Klay Thompson’s bro is having a fine cup of coffee. Is the amount of game power a surprise (14 XBH in his 27 hits)? Has his hit tool gotten better? His K rate in AAA this year (19%) dropped significantly compared to 2104 in AA (25.4%),and his MLB rate is 22% now past 60 AB, the point at which it stars to stabilize. Does this bode well for him being a .260 instead of a .230 hitter? What chance do you give him to be a perennial 2.5-3.5 WAR player?

Kiley McDaniel: The tools are goofy: 55 speed, 55 arm, 60 raw, NFL TE looking dude with a smooth swing that can play a decent CF. The concern was always approach at the plate and how much of that power he can get to. I don’t think we have a conclusive answer yet, but he appears to have made enough adjustments to get a real shot in the bigs.

Comment From Eli
Thoughts on Caleb Cotham, Brandon Pinder, Nick Goody, James Pazos? Any of them project as legit high-leverage bullpen arms?

Kiley McDaniel: If high leverage is 8th/9th inning then I don’t think so, but NYY has a pretty high bar to clear to pitch in those innings with Robertson, Miller and Betances recently.

Comment From MSW
Conforto… that swing, the opposite field power, how can he not hit 25+ in a full season?

Kiley McDaniel: I projected 22-25 as his true talent level, and, in any given season, that means he could hit 30 just thru statistical variation…so yeah, bro I’m with you.

Comment From Extra Crispy
What 2015 draftee has impressed/surprised you the most so far? What draftee has disappointed so far?

Kiley McDaniel: Mentioned Allard, Benintendi and Ke’Bryan Hayes earlier and standouts from the early picks. You can’t really disappoint me the summer after being drafted, there’s too many potential (good) explanations for struggles.

Comment From tony
is alex verdugo a top 100 prospect? whats his ceiling?

Kiley McDaniel: More than a couple guys have mentioned Joc Pederson as being the most similar recent prospect they could think of, but again, let’s not get carried away. He’s in that top 100-150 general area, yeah.

Comment From EC
Any thoughts on the Astros front office folks getting so many looks in other organizations for GM positions? Confirmation that they were on to something?

Kiley McDaniel: The more progressive front office people in the game always though the HOU group was onto something, it was more a matter of it working and them getting that job security boost that results give you and then the old school guys would realize they were witch-hunting up the wrong tree. I’m a little surprised they’ve succeeded so much this year, so maybe they get a little extra dap for that, but it wasn’t hard to see before this season that they had turned this thing around.

Comment From Phineas J. Whoopie
In a parallel universe, Trey Ball honored his commitment to the Univ. of Texas instead of signing directly out of HS and he just finished his sophomore year. Extrapolating from his Sally & Carolina League performances (which otherwise would have been his freshman & sophomore years in the Big 12), what would Ball’s draft stock for 2016 look like? Is his stuff still as promising as it was in 2013?

Kiley McDaniel: I’ll take a stab at this since I’m doing draft stuff now. I’d guess picks 30-50. Especially if he was going both ways at Texas, he’d get the benefit of the doubt on the pitching side. Eric Lauer at Kent State is in that general area right now and is a similar prospect.

Comment From Guest
Know anything about David Stearns? Good hire?

Kiley McDaniel: Good dude in our limited interactions and what I’ve heard. I actually had a friend in the game message me after my GM article to tell me I should’ve included him and I said he was in the mix but I didn’t because I was trying to list the guys I thought would get a job this offseason and I thought he was a year or two away. Messaged that guy back yesterday to say whoops.

Comment From Mike Brito
Any thoughts on the big name Cuban prospects that are able to sign in the 2015 period? I’m guessing the Dodgers will sign EVERYONE…

Kiley McDaniel: That’s a safe assumption, but they obviously won’t sign them all in the end. It’s still pretty hard to handicap, since there’s older guys like RHP Yasiel Sierra (think Raisel Iglesias type) that will get an MLB deal w/some real money and then a whole big group of young guys, with some rumors that there’s names that haven’t been written about yet and weren’t big names in Cuba that have emerged in the DR and could be huge guys.

Combining the uncertainty of the talent, lack of games, one bidder with way more money than everyone else that isn’t afraid to use it and then the uncertainty about who is eligible and when….it’s ripe for confusion and drastically varying bids from teams on the same player.

Kiley McDaniel: That’ll do it for this week