Kris Bryant Is Faster Than Everyone Thinks

Kris Bryant has a lot going for him: he’s second in rookie WAR this season*, he’s part of a long-term Cubs future that looks increasingly rosy, and he’s part of a positional rookie class that has produced the third-most first-half WAR (prorated to 600 PA) in the past 40 years. In short, he’s been everything the Cubs could’ve asked for, showcasing the power, patience, and stolen bases that were expected out of him once he hit the majors.

*All stats current as of Thursday.

That last tool — speed — might be translating to steals somewhat on the back of manager Joe Maddon’s coaching style, but Bryant’s stolen-base skills have never really been in question. He stole eight bases in just 68 games at Double-A and seven in 70 in Triple-A during 2014; this season, he’s produced right about on that level, with eight in 83 games, and that’s obviously a great return for a player with the potential to hit 30 home runs. No one seems to confuse Bryant with a speed demon, however, as he’s not a player whose skill set is based solely around his ability to run.

That final point is precisely why we’re here, because Bryant is currently leading a category you might not expect him to, and one usually reserved for those speedier players we just mentioned. The category he’s leading isn’t home runs, or ISO, or even K% (though he is close to leading that one). Instead, take a look at the top 15 this season for highest infield-hit percentage:

Bryant doesn’t hit a lot of ground balls. Only about 34% of his batted balls are on the ground (relative to a league average of about 45%.) Bryant’s lack of propensity to hit grounder is just as much a driving factor here as his speed is, because infield-hit rate is simply infield hits/ground balls. However, when Bryant does hit a ground ball, it has resulted in an infield hit almost one in five times, which is something that warrants some attention.

To give you some perspective, Mike Trout led this category last year at 15.9%. The year before, Trout led with 16.2%. We all know Trout is a freakish combination of Hall of Fame NFL linebacker and Hall of Fame MLB outfielder, and that’s why we hear anecdotes about how people can loudly hear him running up the first-base line from the dugout while in a loud stadium. The guy is born to lead categories like this.

So what’s going on here with Bryant? Is this just noise — with Trout primed to eventually regain the top spot — or is there something behind his ground balls disproportionately ending in infield hits?

Let’s look at some examples. First up, his most recent infield hit, which was on June 18th:

The infield was shifted, and this is one of those combinations of Danny Salazar going for the ball and not being able to cover first; it’s not an error, just a particular type of unfortunate hit. Everyone gets these kind of hits every once and a while. How about another one, from June 6th:

This could have been ruled an error. Very hard-hit one-hopper, yes, but almost right at Anthony Rendon. Here’s another one from May 6th:

Another one-hopper hit very hard to a relatively sure-handed third baseman. It could’ve been ruled an error, but like the last one, the scorer probably took how hard the ball was hit into account. Maybe it’s not a coincidence that it was a hometown scorer on both occasions, but that’s starting to split hairs. Here’s a final example, his first infield hit of the season:

So there have been a variety of infield-hit types from Bryant. There is a lucky one; there are the line-drive one-hoppers that are extremely hard to field; there is a slow chopper that he simply legs out. Everyone is going to get a few lucky ones, but most of Bryant’s 13 infield hits fall into the latter two categories, being either very hard-hit or a slow roller/chopper that he beats out. That isn’t a coincidence, as you can’t very well play Bryant like a hitter who’s going to lay down a bunt on the third-base line for a hit. The infield must play back because he forces them to play back with the types of balls he puts into play, and when he puts a slow roller into play, the defense has to scramble.

Bryant probably won’t lead this category at the end of the year. Through a full season, it’s the Trout and Marte types who usually rise to the top based on their superior blend of tools. It’s a rare type of player that truly blends power and speed, forcing the infield to play back and opening up the potential for many types of infield hits, and Bryant currently leading this category shows he’s at least in this arena. That brings me to this, a conversation between Baseball Savant founder Daren Willman and well-known baseball physics guru Alan Nathan:

@darenw @msimonespn Here is plot of BA vs exit vel from April ’09 HITf/x. Similar trends but more granular. pic.twitter.com/PfYvX5Y3YA

— Alan Nathan (@pobguy) May 16, 2015

We can see that a low batted-ball speed results in a hit more often than a mid-range batted-ball speed, and we can apply that idea directly to Bryant’s infield hits. With the defense usually playing back, the mis-hit balls are going to have a greater chance of turning into hits. There isn’t really much way around positioning a defense that way against him, given that Bryant also has the tendency to pull balls very hard. The third baseman is going to be exposed one way or the other.

We’ve seen Bryant steal bases in the minors and majors; we’re now seeing Bryant’s formerly low-steal teammate Anthony Rizzo swipe bases this year. Having great speed isn’t necessarily a requirement for stealing bases. The difference between Bryant and Rizzo is that the former has the type of raw speed that forces infielders to rush throws and charge balls, changing usually routine plays into difficult ones. We knew Bryant could steal bases, and we knew he could hit for power — we’ve known that all along. Now we have confirmation that he has translatable speed, which is something different altogether, and is yet another problem for the opposition to deal with.