Last Year’s Free Agent Bargain
Yesterday, we looked at Mark Ellis‘ new contract and how it makes it likely that he’ll end up being the best bargain of the 2009 free agent crop. Well, let’s take a look back a year later and see who (so far) has been the best signing from last winter. Here are the contenders:
Mike Cameron: 1 year at $7 million with $10 million team option for 2009
Signed to provide some outfield defense at a bit of power, Cameron exceeded expectations for the Brewers, having a terrific season at age 35 and helping push Milwaukee into the playoffs. Injuries and a suspension limited him to just 120 games, but that makes his 1.42 WPA/LI all the more impressive when you consider he racked it up in just 508 plate appearances. When you combine average to above average center field defense with a bat that’s worth 1.5 wins over an average hitter, you have a +4 win player. Based on Cameron’s 2008 performance, he was worth between $15 and $20 million on the free market, or more than twice what he actually made. Toss in the team option that now looks like a no-brainer, and Cameron was truly one of the best signings of the winter.
Milton Bradley: 1 year at $5.5 million
Like Cameron, Bradley missed about a quarter of his team’s games, but his excellence when he did play makes up for the lack of quantity. He racked up 3.33 WPA/LI in 510 plate appearances as one of the American League’s best hitters. Because he DH’d, he didn’t offer much defensive value, but he still comes out as a +4 win player compared to a replacement level designated hitter. Like Cameron, teams should have paid about $15 to $20 million for Bradley’s 2008 season, when he made a fraction of that. Even if Texas doesn’t re-sign him for 2009, they’ll pick up a couple of draft picks as compensation for him leaving, and get the benefit of an excellent season and some long term help for the franchise.
Kyle Lohse: 1 year at $4.25 million
Lohse was the clear bargain of the pitching crop, being one of the last to sign and putting up 200 innings with a 3.78 ERA. Considering how expensive pitching is on the free market, the Cardinals saved a ton of money by forgoing the long term contract types and dumpster diving with Lohse. If we assume that a replacement level starting pitcher would allow approximately 6.0 runs per game, that’s about 133 runs allowed over a 200 inning season. Lohse allowed 88 runs in his 200 innings, a 45 run advantage, which works out to about 4.5 wins. We have to adjust that down a bit, however, because replacement level starters don’t throw 200 innings per year (they get replaced by higher quality relievers), so we factor about half a win out. That puts Lohse right at +4 wins.
Interestingly enough, Cameron, Bradley, and Lohse all offered up very similar win totals for their respective clubs. Cameron was the most expensive, but also offers a 2009 team option which has quite a bit of value. Bradley will either re-sign with Texas or net them compensation for leaving, while Lohse’s performance fooled the Cardinals into giving him a brutal 4 year, $41 million extension. You could make an argument for any of the three, but I’m going to go with Mike Cameron as the 2008 free agent bargain of the year, since he will continue to provide value in 2009 for the Brewers.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
A few runners up at less than a million bucks: Chad Durbin, Jerry Hairston Jr., and Odalis Perez.
If +4 wins is worth between 15 and 20 mil, then why were the Cardinals “fooled” into the 4 year deal? If he’s +4 wins in each of just the first two years of that deal, it appears worth it to me, and anything he can contribute in years 3 and 4 would be a bonus.
Because Lohse has about a 5% chance of ever being a +4 win pitcher again. That’s just not his true talent level – his results were substantially better than his abilities. It happens.
Lohse is probably a +2 win pitcher heading for decline. Over the next four years, I’d imagine he’ll give the Cardinals about 6 wins compared to a replacement level pitcher. At $41 million, they’re paying almost $7 million per win.
Dave,you were able to take three very different players and reduce them to a “least common denominator.” Then point out that one of them was performing above his probable ability. Wow.
And to the think the M’s could’ve had Lohse and his +4 wins for relatively low risk but instead signed the worst contract they’ve ever signed…
Fernando Tatis or Jorge Cantu
How about Reed Johnson? I believe he singed with the Cubs for about a million dollars with the following stats .303 avg/.358 OBP/.420 SLG.
He’s also under their control for 2009 as he’s arbitration eligible.
Lohse is unlikely to repeat his performance. So the Cards will pay more money for less performance….for 4 years.
After watching cameron for a entire year he was not bargain. Although he played well in the field the guy strikes out an pathetic amount of time and his rbi’s and HR where good for missing the first 25 games. He hurts the team so much by not hitting the ball. He walks a lot cause he watches so many pitches. I have never watched a player watch more fastballs over the plate . Also i have never seen someone swing through more fastballs then he did, i swear there is a hole in his bat. The last thing the brewers need in there lineup is strikeout players. they need a contact hitter who gets on base more and puts the ball in play. The sad thing is there is not much on the free agent market to replace him.