Launch Angle, Matt Duffy, and Potential Power Surges
We have launch angle for all batted balls last year! We’re still in the infancy of Statcast, and there have been some wiggles in the wobble so far, but with the new update to Baseball Savant, it looks like we can search all batted balls for launch angle. I’m giddy.
This should give us the chance to all sorts of great things later, but for now I’ll do something relatively simple that’s relevant to the newest big slugger in the game, Matt Duffy. We all knew he’d bust out like this, and now we know why.
Turn back to Alan Nathan’s excellent post on the long ball yesterday at The Hardball Times. It’s full of nerdy goodness, but there’s also a fun little factoid that runs through most of his analysis: the ideal launch angle for a home run is between 25 and 30 degrees. Given a certain exit velocity, that range is where distance on a batted ball peaks:
We can search for all balls that were hit between those degrees last year, now. Let’s set the exit velocity floor at 95 in that angle band first, since this chart from Nathan’s piece suggests that 95 mph and 25 degrees is when you start trotting around the bases. The list is full of the guys you would expect. People who hit the ball hard at the right angle get home runs. On the news at eleven.
| Rk. | Player | Results | Total Balls in Play | % of BIP |
| 1 | J.D. Martinez | 32 | 421 | 7.6% |
| 2 | Brandon Crawford | 26 | 392 | 6.6% |
| 3 | Jose Bautista | 28 | 445 | 6.3% |
| 4 | Paul Goldschmidt | 25 | 422 | 5.9% |
| 5 | David Ortiz | 26 | 441 | 5.9% |
| 6 | Bryce Harper | 23 | 394 | 5.8% |
| 7 | Chris Davis | 21 | 370 | 5.7% |
| 8 | Mike Trout | 21 | 422 | 5.0% |
It’s interesting to see J.D. Martinez do so well, maybe. He famously saw that other sluggers hit the ball in the air more and changed his swing to add more loft to it. And then after that famous case, you’ve got a bunch of sluggers and a breakout shortstop. This is how you power.
But let’s consider the guys who don’t hit it quite as hard. Let’s look at the batters last year who hit the most balls at that angle, no matter the velocity. The idea is that they — if only they added just a little more oomph, a little more velocity to their bat — they would cash in on their current ideal-for-power launch angle. This, like above, is percentage of balls in play in the ideal launch angle.
| Rk. | Player | Results | Total Balls in Play | % of BIP |
| 1 | J.D. Martinez | 48 | 421 | 11.4% |
| 2 | Brandon Belt | 33 | 349 | 9.5% |
| 3 | Paul Goldschmidt | 39 | 422 | 9.2% |
| 4 | Brandon Crawford | 36 | 392 | 9.2% |
| 5 | Bryce Harper | 35 | 394 | 8.9% |
| 6 | Jose Bautista | 38 | 445 | 8.5% |
| 7 | Kyle Seager | 45 | 529 | 8.5% |
| 8 | Matt Carpenter | 35 | 427 | 8.2% |
| 9 | Jay Bruce | 36 | 440 | 8.2% |
| 10 | Matt Duffy | 39 | 480 | 8.1% |
| 11 | Chase Headley | 36 | 448 | 8.0% |
| 12 | Ian Kinsler | 44 | 549 | 8.0% |
| 13 | Angel Pagan | 34 | 425 | 8.0% |
| 14 | Adrian Gonzalez | 37 | 464 | 8.0% |
| 15 | David Ortiz | 35 | 441 | 7.9% |
| 16 | Mike Trout | 33 | 422 | 7.8% |
| 17 | Joey Votto | 32 | 411 | 7.8% |
| 18 | Evan Longoria | 37 | 481 | 7.7% |
| 19 | Josh Donaldson | 38 | 499 | 7.6% |
| 20 | Logan Forsythe | 33 | 435 | 7.6% |
| 21 | Ender Inciarte | 35 | 473 | 7.4% |
| 22 | Brian Dozier | 36 | 488 | 7.4% |
| 23 | Daniel Murphy | 34 | 466 | 7.3% |
| 24 | Neil Walker | 32 | 441 | 7.3% |
| 25 | Mookie Betts | 38 | 524 | 7.3% |
| 26 | Curtis Granderson | 31 | 431 | 7.2% |
| 27 | Albert Pujols | 38 | 532 | 7.1% |
| 28 | Adrian Beltre | 34 | 510 | 6.7% |
| 29 | Buster Posey | 34 | 511 | 6.7% |
| 30 | Michael Brantley | 32 | 483 | 6.6% |
I’ve highlighted some interesting names for you. The non-highlighted names are mostly veterans and mostly power sluggers. But the highlighted ones? They’ve either recently broken out, power-wise, or are young enough that you can believe that they may break out in the future.
Hello Giants! Finding five giants among the top 40 suggests that “Bam-Bam” Hensley Meulens is doing his job as the hitting coach. But while J.D. Martinez averaged 95 mph on balls in this launch angle last season — kinda making him the ideal power hitter — and Brandon Belt (94.45) and Brandon Crawford (94.64) both hit the ball harder, Duffy lagged behind.
Duffy’s 87.56 mph average on balls in this launch angle sits better in a group with Ian Kinsler (88.3), Nick Markakis (87.83), and even Michael Brantley (89.12). At least it’s better than Angel Pagan (84.75) and Ender Inciarte (83.5). There’s a decent range of outcomes here for Duffy, and if he can even push it to Buster Posey (92.32) level, then there’s another 10 homers in that bat.
The point is, Matt Duffy doesn’t need to undergo the transformation that made J.D. Martinez who he is today. He has the swing already. What he needs is to fill out, to get yoked, to add muscle, which is directly related to bat speed. That will give him exit velocity to take better advantage of his good swing plane.
The even better news is that Duffy realized this, planning to add weight going into this season. And the tools exist — Zepp just released a new version of their bat sensor which tracks bat path, bat speed, hand speed, and time to impact. I tried the thing, and even though I had a pitiful 42 mph bat speed, I was happy to discover the training videos that used proven weighted bat protocols to help increase my bat speed.
Hey, if I had a 25-30 degree natural angle on my swing, and all day every day in order to increase bat speed, maybe I, too, could hit 20 home runs in the major leagues some day. Hah. Not bloody likely. I’m no Matt Duffy.
With a phone full of pictures of pitchers' fingers, strange beers, and his two toddler sons, Eno Sarris can be found at the ballpark or a brewery most days. Read him here, writing about the A's or Giants at The Athletic, or about beer at October. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity.
Eno – great article. Really enjoyed it. Have you found an actual correlation between strength and bat speed? For instance, Adrian Gonzalez has plus plus strength but averagish bat speed. And Betts has plus plus bat speed with fair strength. If Duffy got stronger in the weight room, while he’d come onto more power, I’m not sure his bat speed would increase.
It’s really more genetics than anything. Every human is genetically pre-disposed to have a certain ratio of fast-twitch to slow-twitch fibers in their muscle mass. With the correct training you could maximize the use of all of your fast-twitch to have more explosive speed.
Obviously having a larger muscle mass would allow for more power to be applied with the same amount of speed.
Likewise, Adrian Gonzalez may be genetically pre-disposed to maintain more muscle mass than Betts, so no matter how much Betts trains he might not ever reach the raw strength totals of Gonzalez, but his bat speed could make up for it and allow him to hit just as many HRs in a season.
Is there any proof scientifically that adding muscle leads to added bat speed? I am going to go ahead and disagree with you on that assumption. If you scout malnourished, rail thin 16 yr old Domincans…they have ELITE bat speed with little-no muscle mass. Think bat speed is more of a function of fast twitch fiber and explosive hips than muscle mass.
To add to this hypothesis, maybe muscle mass (strength) decreases the deceleration of the bat that occurs when it makes contact with the ball. Less deceleration at contact could translate to more power.
Linked the research. 10% more muscle mass leads to 8% better bat speed. http://baseball.physics.illinois.edu/BRJ/SteroidsBRJ38.pdf
It rather says 3.8% bat speed / 3% batted ball speed. Still significant numbers.
Reading the article, the statement that increased muscle mass leads to increased bat speed (and the numerical model for that) is derived from very idealized assumptions. I would take it as a starting guess, not a reliable conclusion. For example, I am sure that not all added muscle mass is created equal when it comes to connecting on fastballs.
Yeah tell that to Barry Bonds
Someone help me! What should i expect from Brantley? When will he be back, and how limited will his production be?
I have a deal on the table to snag him in a trade while he’s on the DL, but cannot, for the life of me, figure out what his value should be.
He should be fine. Get him.
awesome stuff
Very interesting. But that list is dominated by flyball hitters. Duffy’s inclusion is contradictory, given his batted ball mix. I find it unlikely that guys like Duffy and Inciarte possess the skill to pound the ball into the ground >50% of the time, yet somehow consistently hit at the ideal launch angle when they do manage to get some lift. I see no reason to assume this is a sustainable skill. Personally, I think Duffy got lucky last year with the homeruns. Ironically, this data could be used in support of that assessment.
Disagree. FB/GB mix is very sticky year to year, which we will have to use in proxy until we have year to year on launch angle.
If your launch angle spray is a continuum, it’s totally possible to be concentrated between 10 and 30 and still have ideal angle on your fly balls. If you open this up to higher percentages, you get more fly ball guys, who are hitting it too far up in the air.
True, it’s possible. I just wonder if it’s likely to maintain from season to season. We’ll have to wait and see. StatCast is a truly awesome thing and I’m excited to see what we learn from it this year.
Actually it’s five Giants in the top 40.
And the Giants have three of the top 10, four of the top 14, and Posey is not even one of the four, he’s 29th.
Chicks “Dig the Launch Angle”?
while i don’t disagree,
“chicks dig exit velocity” is more the rage
Chicks dig pace. Work it like Josh Beckett pitching to Tulo, and the other stuff will take care of itself 😉
Interesting to see Angel Pagan in there. Last year he was playing injured, but seems to have his strength back. 3 extra-base hits already compared to 27 all last year. If he can stay healthy, he could have a nice little bounceback year.
He’s supposedly fully healthy now, surgery fixed his knee issues, and I think he had other issues that got taken care of too.
Last time he had contract year, he helped Giants win championship in 2012. Should be lock to temper his Wild Horse ways in order to stay healthy and to say the right things and not rock the boat. He wants one more big deal, and he can get one if he has a good year, wherever he bats.
Matt Duffy is an interesting hitter. His development from his college days and first year of pro ball is simply astounding.
2010: .244/.245/.291 (Long Beach State)
2011: .266 .298/.290 (Long Beach State)
2012: .244/.336/.289 (Long Beach State)
2012: .247/.361/.286 (Salem-Keizer)
2013: .307 .405 .418 (Augusta)
2013: .292 .342 .509 (San Jose)
2014: .332 .398 .444 (Richmond)
2014: .267 .302 .300 (San Francisco)
2015: .295 .334 .428 (San Francisco)
I couldn’t find too much information as to how Duffy took this huge step from a college version of Johnny LeMaster to a prodcutive major league hitter. John Sickels wrote this right after Duffy was called up to the majors in August 2014.
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2014/8/3/5962993/giants-prospect-matt-duffy-from-18th-round-to-mlb-in-two-years
Nice article on his evolution, credits coach in Cape Cod league: http://blogs.mercurynews.com/giants/2015/08/10/how-matt-duffy-went-from-zero-home-runs-in-501-collegiate-at-bats-to-a-solid-nl-rookie-of-the-year-candidate/
Also, this article discusses the book that is his batting bible now, from the same coach: http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2015/08/04/giants-matt-dufffy-nl-best-rookie-not-joc-pederson-kris-bryant/31116445/
Great Stuff Eno!
Would it be completely irrational to expect a big break out season from Belt this year? If the dude can just stay healthy, is a .280/25/10 season within reach? Basically Joey Votto light?
Duffy hits a lot of ground balls but he has clearly different kinds of swings in different situations. I remember early last season before he’d taken the 3rd base job from mcgehee he started every once in a while taking what looked to me like a classic home run swing, it looked completely natural and self-confident, like tapes i’ve seen of ted williams, you’ll recognize it immediately, i didn’t see it at all in 2014, he’s this skinny guy with no muscles at all, i was thinking what is he trying to do? But then what do you know, he started to hit homers. He still chops a lot at the ball a lot, that’s clearly his more traditional swim, and he got 20 infield hits last year, so you can’t argue with that either.
Regarding belt, i have the feeling that aside from playing in at&t his hr numbers are affected a lot by topspin which keeps the ball in the park sometimes even if he crushes it and the launch angle is right. He did it in his first at bat of the season vs milwaukee and i think it’s pretty common for him. He golfs the ball and the spin pulls it down.
Launch angle on Baseball Savant for all 2015 batted balls?
Guess I have to cancel any plans I’d made for this weekend.
Awesome article. Is Brandon Crawford known as a big HR guy? I’ve never known him as such, at least not on the same level as the dudes in that first table. Poised for bigger power numbers this year than in the past?
He hit 21 hrs last year and was among the leaders in fb distance
Is Inciarte’s inclusion on this list just a fluke? He looks like more of a groundball/slap hitter to me.
Great article as usual!
I would add that you could have discussed Crawford as well, there are many who doubt his power and expect him to regress. He was on list of hitters who hit HR on 95+ MPH pitches, seems like the Giants look for that or something, the ability to hit pitches that are that fast.
Crawford was also among the leaders in fly balk distance last year, more evidence thatit wasn’t a fluke. It would be interesting to see if his launch angle changed last year. On the other hand, he hit 21 homs already last year and isn’t a skinny guy like duffy, so even if he doesn’t tegress it’s likely he isn’t going to hit a lot.more, whereas duffy only hit 12 homers and could definitely muscle up.
Got to watch out for those fly balks.
Interesting too that of the top 15 HR hitters last year, 7. including the top 4 not named Harper, are not on this list.
Watching most of those guys makes it obvious why they aren’t on the list. They are *trying* to hit HRs, which increases the lift on the ball. They have elite bat speed, which makes up for the increased angle. Most of the guys on the list are keeping a level swing and shooting for line drives.
Makes you wonder how many HR some of those guys would hit if they had more of a line drive approach. The bat speed is still there, so the angle would be the only change. At this point it’ll never happen effectively, given how long those guys have been swinging the way they have, but it’s interesting to think about.
Doesn’t a good launch angle but limited exit velo mean that you maxed out your potential? I guess it would be easier to raise the swing angle than it is to add batspeed.
I think 23-30 degrees is a too small range so that the sample size is not enough.I would suggest looking at 20-35 degrees. 20-35 is about the common HR range (unless you are Nelson Cruz or Stanton who can probably hit one out at 15-45) and gives you a bigger sample size to work with.
Meant 20-35 of course.