LeBlanc Getting It Done
The Padres improved to 17-10 last night and are, in my mind, undoubtedly the biggest surprise story of the 2010 season thus far. This fast start is largely in part of fantastic pitching. The Padres pitching staff carried a 2.92 ERA and a higher but still stellar 3.74 FIP into their contest against the Colorado Rockies on Tuesday night.
Tuesday’s starter Wade LeBlanc has been a large part of the tremendous performance. He held the Rockies to two runs on seven hits in six innings, striking out four and walking two, not allowing a home run. Remarkably enough, this was quite easily LeBlanc’s worst start – it was the first one in which he had allowed more than one run or had a negative WPA.
LeBlanc’s ERA skyrocketed up to 1.15 from 0.52 as a result of this start. His FIP is also no longer sub-2.00. LeBlanc has mainly succeeded to due a ridiculous 95.5% LOB% in his first three starts – only one of the 24 runners that have reached base off him have scored. Still, we’ve seen some very encouraging things in LeBlanc’s peripherals that suggest that he can be a successful pitcher in the major leagues.
LeBlanc’s strikeout rates in the major leagues in 2008 and 2009 were a very low 5.91 and 5.83 respectively. Given that LeBlanc is not an extreme control pitcher, these rates simply weren’t high enough for LeBlanc to produce at the major league level, and he compiled -0.8 WAR in those two seasons and 67.2 IP with the Padres. That rate is way up this year, up to 7.71 K/9, even after last night’s slightly lacking four strikeout night. That’s not a terribly surprising increase, as LeBlanc is still young, at age 25, and had a strikeout rate above 8.00 in two stints in AAA, as well as in A+ and AA. This increase is supported by an increase in swinging strikes, up to 8.8% from 8.2% in 2009 and 7.7% in 2008. LeBlanc is also walking fewer batters, at 2.31 BB/9, down from a 4.02 career rate.
Obviously, LeBlanc isn’t this good. He’s not going to be able to constantly strand runners. His stuff – an 86.7 MPH fastball, a cutter, a changeup, and a slider – likely isn’t good enough to strike out 7.7 batters per nine innings. He’s been a fly ball pitcher his whole career – 42.8% rate – and that hasn’t changed at all in 2010. However, the improvements we’ve seen so far suggest that LeBlanc has the potential to become a league average pitcher, and likely is no longer the below-replacement level pitcher that has been forced to bounce between the majors and the minors. For now, though, he’s getting the job done in a big way for the 1st Place San Diego Padres.
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He’s cool. His approach sort of reminds me of Ted Lilly’s.
I think you may be selling LeBlanc a tad short. No, he’s not going to be front of the rotation starter. But his fastball velocity has been increasing as he gains confidence and experience, and some of his secondary pitches (changeup in particular) are really good. Also, he’s always shown pretty good control and ability to locate his pitches well.
I think he could be a somewhat above average pitcher, especially given that he’ll be able to play half his games in Petco Park.
It will be interesting to see what happens to LeBlanc when Chris Young comes back. However that may now be a bit further off based on yesterday’s news of a new MRI for Young and the results of said MRI being sent to Dr. James Andrews. It can’t be good for a low payroll team to get nothing from their highest paid players. Young this year and Peavy and Giles last year.
plus, he can hit for avg. (which is beneficial to himself by producing his own run supports), as well as play some good defense.
Not sure about this, but hasn’t the fact that he’s picked off a relatively large number of baserunners led to that extremely high strand rate? That seems to somewhat offset the headline number
Isn’t his strand rate (now a still high, but at least lower, 90.3%) almost completely offset by his high .353 BABIPA? The higher than expected K/9 and BB/9 rates are still there, but for the most part I think he’s just pitching abnormally effectively rather than actually being all that lucky.
While it’s true that LeBlanc doesn’t have a plus fastball, the big “secret” (as maestro notes) is his changeup which is a plus pitch. According to pitch f/x he has thrown the change 27% of the time this year and has a 17% whiff rate on the pitch. He’s sort of a like a lower-velocity Cole Hamels in this respect, in that the change is the primary weapon and the fastball is really there to set it up. Read up in any of the old Baseball America scouting reports and you will see the change mentioned constantly.
Of course, the lower velocity on the fastball means he needs to command it well to be successful. His first stints, the FB was only about 85mph and he was nibbling too much and got killed when guys would sit on the change. Now, he is more confident, is throwing more like 86-88mph on the FB, and the change is becoming a real weapon.
kvazales is also correct to point out the pickoffs. LeBlanc has an amazing move, and totally shuts down the running game.
Obviously, he isn’t THIS good, but the increased K rate is for real and he can be a solid #3 or 4 starter in the bigs.
“Obviously, he isn’t THIS good, but the increased K rate is for real and he can be a solid #3 or 4 starter in the bigs.”
This is pretty much my point.
that was my point too! 🙂
You’re apparently not the only one who sees the Hamels comparison. Here is an article from today comparing the pitch f/x data for the changeups of Hamels, Sabathia, and Buerhle.
http://friarforecast.com/?p=1739
League average can certainly be a #3 or #4. I agree.