Let’s Build a Scouting Report on Lucas Duda’s Arm

You’ve got an opinion on the Eric Hosmer play. Y’know, the one where he broke from third on a ground ball that didn’t get out of the infield grass and scored the tying run in the ninth inning of the World Series? Y’know, the one where if he would have been out, the game would have been over but he wasn’t and now the Royals are world champions? That’s the one. You’ve got an opinion on the Hosmer play, I’ve got an opinion on the Hosmer play, and even if you say you don’t have an opinion on the Hosmer play, well, that’s your opinion.

Immediately, people began debating whether he’d have been out with a good throw. Because Lucas Duda didn’t make a good throw. But that’s not the part that has my attention. The result was the result. I’m more interested in the process.

You see, the legend of the Kansas City Royals’ advance scouting department has grown to near-mythological proportions. The stories say it was the advance scouting department that discovered David Price tipping his changeup. Price’s Jon Lester-like avoidance of pick offs to first base. Jose Bautista’s inclination to throw to second base from the corner in right field — which allowed Lorenzo Cain to score from first on a single in the ALCS. Now, the advance scouting department has struck again:

@AmazinAvenue How does it make assumptions when the Royals internally talked about taking chances against Duda? This wasn’t willy-nilly.

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) November 2, 2015

This has been the set-up. I want you to now forget everything you know about the Hosmer play, about Lucas Duda, about what the metrics say about him and what you’ve seen with your eyes, about the Nostradamus-like premonitions of the Royals advance scouts and about everything you’ve read since last night. To the best of your abilities, wipe the slate clean.

Slate clean? Cool. First, the most basic information about Lucas Duda. He’s 29 years old, he’s a Major League baseball player, and he throws right-handed. He’s roughly 6-foot-4, and he weighs 255 pounds. His first season in the Majors, he played exclusively left field. Since then, he’s transitioned to become a first baseman, but for his career, he’s spent 40% of his time in corner outfield spots, and 60% at first base. In 3,000 innings at first base, he’s committed three throwing errors. In 2,000 innings in the outfield, he’s committed two more. Based on that information and that information alone, give me your opinion of Lucas Duda’s throwing arm:

Now for Phase Two. It’s a little tricky to pin down all the times a first baseman threw a ball with intent, but I was pretty thorough in my searches and with the help of database guru Jeff Zimmerman I’m willing to say with about 95% confidence that I found everything I was looking for. Everything I was looking for amounts to this:

• Every throw Lucas Duda made from first base this year; and
• Instances of Lucas Duda throwing home from first base, from past years; and
• Instances of Lucas Duda throwing errors at first base, from past years.

Remember: clean slate! You don’t know anything about these three items. You’re about to, though, because I’ve prepared 20 video clips. Twenty clips is a lot! I get that. But they’re all roughly four seconds in length, and this is your best chance to watch baseball for the next five months. You can knock these out in two minutes. Best part is, you get to pretend you’re an advance scout for the Kansas City Royals! You’ve always dreamed of working in a Major League front office. This is your big chance. Watch with a keen eye. Try to pick up on any useful trends. Along with basic arm strength and accuracy, look for things like footwork, transfer, and mechanics. Keep in mind: you’re an advance scout for the Kansas City Royals and this is the World Series!

Okay, Mr. Advance Scout. You’ve done your individual research. Now, tell us your opinion of Lucas Duda’s throwing arm, given the basic information provided at the start, plus your film study:

You’ve seen about all there is to see. That was roughly every throw Duda made this year, plus his throwing errors from years past, plus his throws to home. I couldn’t find any instances of him throwing across the diamond to third. The Royals advance scouts did more homework than this, but they watched all the same clips you just did. Your personal opinion, now, should be set. Let’s fold in some outsider opinions.

First, we’ll go with the Fans Scouting Report. On a 1-100 scale, Duda’s arm strength has been rated by the fans as 40, 41, 23 and 40. His accuracy has been rated as 32, 35, 21, 45. First basemen typically don’t score too well in the Fans Scouting Report, but every year he’s been included, he’s scored in the bottom-half of the arm sections.

Now, to pull from two columns written, one by Jeff Passan and the other by Andy McCullough. These two might be more plugged-in with the Royals organization than any other reporters on the planet.

First, from Passan’s:

‘[Hosmer had] heard, before the series began… that first baseman Lucas Duda was susceptible to aggressive baserunning. As Yost said: “Make them beat us.”’

From McCullough’s:

‘[Hosmer] knew the first baseman, Lucas Duda, is a mediocre fielder.

“Bless his heart, Duda,” first-base coach Rusty Kuntz said. “He’s a good bat.”

The Kansas City scouting report on Duda mentioned his sidearm throwing motion. His volleys often tail away from the intended target. And so catcher Travis d’Arnaud reached in vain as the ball skittered away. Hosmer slid across the plate to tie the game.’

The Royals scouts say that they saw Duda had unorthodox, sidearm throwing mechanics. They say they saw a lack of consistent accuracy. They say they saw that Duda didn’t respond well to unusually aggressive baserunning. Now that you’ve got basic info, film, plus the reported word of the Kansas City advance scouts, one more poll related to Duda:

McCullough’s technical specifics are interesting, but Passan’s note might be the most important part of the calculus in Hosmer’s decision, in my opinion. Maybe you noticed it in the clips above, but, as far as I can tell, Duda’s only ever thrown home, from first base, three times in his entire career. He’s never had to make a throw quite like the one he made in the ninth inning of Game Five. Hosmer’s got good enough speed. The Royals had a 3-1 lead in the series. Third baseman David Wright’s throwing strength, as reported by both Passan and McCullough, as evidenced by recent Fans Scouting Reports, and as evidenced by this year’s Statcast data, is among the worst in the Major Leagues. It would have taken strong throws from both Wright and Duda to get Hosmer at home, and a clean tag by d’Arnaud.

I’ve tried to abstain from injecting my own opinion into this piece, but it kind of feels like the perfect storm to take a risk in attempt to capitalize on the weaknesses of your opponents by forcing them to make a play. And it sure seems like the Royals advance scouts did their homework and nailed another one. Granted, all that information wasn’t running through Hosmer’s head during the split-second he needed to make a decision. Hosmer certainly knew some, if not all, of this info beforehand, but sports are reactionary. He saw the grounder hit to Wright. He knew nobody was there to cover the bag at third, lessening his risk of taking wider secondary lead as Wright looked him back. He saw Wright hesitate after looking him back. He took the risk. It paid off.

TangoTiger ran the math and figured Hosmer needed to be safe roughly 33% of the time for it to be a worthwhile risk. Because this is all fascinating to me, I want to include one more poll to wrap this all up. Try and forget the fact that Duda made a bad throw and Hosmer was safe at home. Only consider what you just learned in this post, and answer the question: did Eric Hosmer make a wise decision in breaking for home?