Let’s Construct the MLB Season We Actually Want to See
The only thing we know for sure about the 2020 MLB schedule (brought to you by COVID-19) is that it won’t be 162 games. Whatever truncated mutant of a year baseball ends up with will likely be the shortest on record since at least 1994, when most teams got about 70% of the way through the calendar before the strike happened and canceled the rest. Given the current state of things in the United States — with coronavirus still rampant and several states and cities already issuing stay-at-home orders that will run through most of May — it’s unlikely we’ll get even that much of the season played. But no one knows for sure: MLB, like the rest of us, is at the mercy of a virus and its containment measures. Rumors of a 100-game season chock full of doubleheaders played in empty stadiums and a southern California World Series are nothing more than thin gristle to chew on while we wait for more substantive news.
Without a doubt, there are meetings happening in MLB’s now-virtual offices to try to plan for the future. Aside from Rob Manfred timing these Zoom get-togethers and demanding precious minutes be shaved off them, we can’t know for sure what’s being discussed, but how to cram as much of a baseball season as possible into an ever-shrinking window is likely top of the action list. Every day lost further complicates that endeavor, though, as does the fact that MLB’s normal schedule is already a wobbly Jenga tower of unequal matchups and cross-country travel. Like Tetris, every block has to fit into just the right place, or else it all piles up into disaster. Being an outdoor sport in a Northern Hemisphere continent already imposes hard limitations on how far into the year baseball can extend; losing warm-weather months makes it all the tougher.
But amid the carnage and chaos of how to fit too much baseball into too little time, there’s an opportunity for MLB to do something different, if not revolutionary. The sport has long been locked into the construct that is 162 games; now it’s being forced out of that comfort zone. Let’s use this space, then, to get weird, or maybe even find a better way to be. And how would that be, you may be saying to yourself. I’m glad you asked.
Trimming The Fat
Your average major league schedule also contains a lot of dead weight. Out of 162 games, there are only so many that demand attention or promise excitement. The rest are a relative dead zone of 7:05 pm weekday games between fourth- and fifth-place teams, or mid-afternoon Saturday tilts featuring Triple-A starters, or just more Pirates baseball than is medically recommended.
Duds are inevitable. What’s made that frustration even deeper in recent years is how many teams have embraced the idea of the season not mattering—that is, utilizing those 162 games not to see how many can be won, but as a kind of endless spring training, in which scores don’t matter and player evaluation is the priority. Through tanking and rebuilding, a number of squads effectively spit on the season, giving you an ersatz baseball that exchanges present enjoyment for theoretical future success. That said success is anything but guaranteed is a topic for another column; suffice to say that in today’s MLB, not everyone is trying, and the result is a schedule full of potholes that you can’t drive around.
That’s increased exponentially by the inherent unevenness of MLB’s schedule. Because of divisional alignments, Yankees fans were treated to 19 games against Baltimore amid its indefinite to-the-studs teardown, and though that amounted to 17 wins and approximately 28,000 home runs (23,500 of which came from Gleyber Torres), it also resulted in lots of ugly, ugly baseball that no one should have to see.
So why make people see it? Tell the Orioles to stay home. Tell the Tigers that they only get to be a part of the season if they commit to putting Casey Mize and Matt Manning on the roster on Opening Day. Tell the Marlins that their services won’t be needed unless they bring back the Dinger Machine and have it run constantly throughout the game. Tell the Mariners … well, I’m not sure what Seattle could offer to ensure a spot in the 2020 fixtures. But if you can find a carrot, tie it to the end of the stick that is the schedule. At the end of the day, haven’t we suffered enough through all of this? The cure to what ails us won’t be found in watching the Pirates’ $50 million machine grind its way to last place in the NL Central.
Create Some Cheap Heat
One of the inherent problems with MLB’s schedule is simply how long it takes to play the whole thing. The best matchups happen sporadically and occasionally far apart, and too often, it takes a while before the games you want to see show up on your TV. On the original 2020 slate, the Yankees and Astros — as close as the league has nowadays to a college football-style rivalry where real hatred floats in the air — weren’t going to meet up until May 15, and in Houston, at that. The Astros wouldn’t have faced the vitriol of angry, rabid Yankees fans until all the way into late September. Similarly, a Dodgers-Astros rematch wasn’t on the season’s original docket—an unforeseen misstep, given the enmity between both clubs.
Now we can get that drama upfront: Have the Yankees and Astros open the season in New York, and have them play an entire seven-game series. Well, now it can be, and hell, make it a two-week-long affair. Same with Houston and Los Angeles: make them clash early and often, until we’re positively sick and tired of it. And while the tension will dissipate over time, the saving grace is that those teams are all really, really good. Which brings me to a third schedule option.
The Tournament Of Super-Champions: All Killer, No Filler
The league has looked the other way with regards to tanking (if not tacitly approved of it), and the result has been a regular season that, for a lot of teams and fans, simply doesn’t matter. The year takes on the air of the NBA, where all the games serve more as a warmup for the postseason and a way to jockey for draft position than as any kind of real drama. MLB has made it clear that what matters is October; its advertising takes a dual-pronged approach of “The players are young and cool and we’re letting them have emotions” and “The entire season comes down to one month and, by extension, the 10 teams that are allowed to take part in it.” And for the most part, we know in March who’s going to be alive in October. The American League has, at best, eight teams that are true playoff contenders—maybe 10 if things go unexpectedly well for the White Sox and Blue Jays. The glass-half-full view is that half the league is postseason-viable; the glass-half-empty take is that half the league is essentially mathematically eliminated before the year has even started.
So let’s take that reality out to its logical endpoint. Make the regular season one endless October. From whenever Opening Day is through the originally scheduled end of the World Series, the whole league is thrown into a March Madness-style tournament. Start with the worst teams as the lowest seeds and make them play a five-game series, or do single-game eliminations a la the Wild Card game. Does that mean a team like the Royals or Rockies might have a 2020 season that lasts all of one day? Sure, but it’ll be a more meaningful day by itself than whatever they would’ve done in a regular-length campaign.
From there, we move up to the better teams, all playing in best-of-seven series. Every week is high stakes and high-wire. Build it up until the two best teams are left standing in the de facto World Series. In essence, what I’ve created is “The World Baseball Classic, but longer and with full major league rosters,” and if you don’t want to see that, reconsider!
The unfortunate truth is that making an omelette requires some eggs being broken, and MLB’s 2020 schedule is going to see a lot of shells get cracked. One way or another, this year is going to be a mess of half measures and Frankenstein series. We might as well make sure that this corpse is as exquisite as it can be.
Strong argument for contraction. (Or promotion/relegation, or whatever.)
Relegation is too much of a free market and therefore too risky for MLB teams to consider.
The threat of relegation would destroy the value of small and mid market teams. The owners (and fans) would have to be crazy to do that.
Also, relegation would require massive organizational changes.
Why not start with simpler efforts. Such as extending service time and the major-league minimum salary to any player on the 40-man roster? That way, any player added to the 40-man roster to avoid the rule 5 draft will start accruing time toward free agency. The only players in AAA would be players that still need to develop, are blocked by a player on the MLB, or haven’t been added to the 40-man.
Give the owners something back by reducing arbitration to two years. The money saved from one less year of arbitration will go toward paying the MLB minimums to an extra 14 players.
I am all for relegation, but then the minors would have to operate and support stadiums that could support a “major league” experience, yes?
There certainly would have to be standards, yes.
you could start with just dividing the majors in two, I guess (which would be BRUTAL). And then just have relegation and promotion between the two leagues. We could call one the National League and the other the American League, even. You could even require certain stadium stuff to be a condition of promotion to the second league (as it pretty typical in soccer leagues with promotion and relegation). You could also allow relegated teams to buy their place back from a promoted team (how it mostly works in Mexico- I say mostly, it’s really weird)
Relegate the bottom 14 teams – they can all play amongst themselves, and the top 3 get promoted to MLB next year. The bottom 3 in MLB get relegated to the second tier.
MLB had 16 teams for half a century and it worked fine. A 16 team Premier League, and a 14 team Second Tier could work well.
That format might allow for expansion – the second tier could add 2 teams (presumably Montreal and Newark).
In the English Premier League, even the worst teams need to constantly try to win. The only problem is there is no playoff, so when Liverpool takes a huge lead there is no drama at the top. With both relegation and a playoff, MLB would have the best of both worlds.
EPL teams have tons of single knockout tournaments as well of….. varying importance (LOL Milk Cup). But Mexico plays two seasons with a league table and playoffs with promotion and relegation* and it works pretty well- it’s by far the most watched soccer league in the US, and pulls in better ratings than NBA regular season and any NHL game.
*in theory
While I think relegation is currently a pipe dream, I do believe MLB should reconsider its format to help address the incentives (or lack thereof) for trying to win every year. Whether it’s something like relegation or rewards/penalties for relative improvement/regression, I don’t know. But since we have such obvious disparities between good and bad teams, something should be done.
Newark? New Jersey?
As a fan not just of the physical game of baseball but also of the process of roster construction, I was actually looking forward to my team’s rebuilding effort this year. Just give us something approximating the regular season please.
If only the MLB was as creative an open to change as the NBA.
I think, as Ben and Sam discussed a week or so ago, the nature of a shortened season will be conducive to a lot more randomness. Hopefully we get an absolutely exciting mess of a year.
“a season of at least 94 games”- Paul Montfort
Personally, I’m most excited to see if someone can make a run at .400 during an 80-ish-game (or whatev) season.
forget 400, like an Eric Thames hitting 500 in an 80 game sample
I thought about this too. What might a pitching equivalent be? A perfect 12-0 season? Or a qualifing pitcher with an ERA under 1.00?
An 80 game season would mean a player needs 248 plate appearances to qualify for a batting title. Assume maybe 25 walks leaves 223 at bats and our .400 hitter needs 90 hits. Tim Anderson had 81 hits in 227 AB in the 2nd half last year so it doesn’t seem impossible.
Fuck Jon Tayler. Absolutely pathetic that the staff let this clown write for the site.
whut
Yeah, that guy sucks. Boo that man.
This is what you get for sharing a log in with your kids
This comment was so out of the blue and over the top, I could not stop laughing. I have to give a thumbs up vote for the absurdist humour.
Well done processguy17!
Nope.
I do miss seeing divisional play be more the norm. I am over intraleague play. The 32-game schedule proposed on ESPN has some interesting ideas to it.
One thing MLB should absolutely do if they have a shortened season is to lift TV blackout rules. Fans still might not be comfortable attending games.
This season I just want to see them get weird with it. My only hope is that after they get weird with it, Manfred doesn’t decide he likes any of the ideas.
Thanks for the laugh I got from this line: “Aside from Rob Manfred timing these Zoom get-togethers and demanding precious minutes be shaved off them, we can’t know for sure what’s being discussed…”
That was good, though I personally prefer “more Pirates baseball than is medically recommended.”
Given that it seems like things are going to be shut down for a long time (for good reason), I think we should have the teams’ managers play MLB: The Show against each other in lieu of an actual season. We could broadcast the games on the MLB network. Let’s see Joe Maddon pilot the Angels against Bob Melvin playing the A’s.
I enjoy FanGraphs for the insight and detailed thinking the website brings to the game. This article quickly goes off the rails, and off the same cliff Wile E Coyote falls off in the Roadrunner cartoons. Season too long? Bad teams stay home? Etc. Who is to say that the Baltimore fan can’t get to see his or her team play the Yankees. The season ,ALL the games, is what makes the game what it is. I miss the game, and I’m confident MLB is doing everything that can about this. If the author of this article feels the season is eighy games too long , maybe he needs to follow another game. But look out, because the hockey season( at least when their is no virus) will last until June, ditto for basketball.
I appreciate the Baltimore fan, and they’re not really the problem. I don’t appreciate the tanking team that puts an uncompetitive team on the field on purpose in order to build a super strong team years later. The Cubs and Astos did it, the Marlins are doing it. I’d like to see these teams not get such a large reward for losing. Baltimore’s issues may stem more from Chris Davis and some unfortunate management mistakes. I don’t think they intended to be in their current position. The silver lining – they stink during what is kind of a lost season anyway and are a year closer to relevance.
It’s a real slap in the face to the FG writers that were laid off that this was published
You guys never, ever mention any potential positive about the “pointless” games. Do you know how nice it is to have a “story” narrated to you for three or four hours.. maybe five or six if you get extras or listen to the pregame? If anything, I thought a stay at home order would be illustrative of the intrinsic value of it. I remember driving out west and having nothing to pick from on the radio except for COL@AZ April baseball a couple years ago, and being really grateful to have it. It doesn’t really matter what the playoff odds are if you like having a game on as part of your day. Last February, I was so glad to have it back that I put on other teams’ ST broadcasts.
Good luck with the MLBPA, not to mention the PR nightmare post tragedy of telling four teams/cities to go screw!
Just a bare bones thought, have MLB be 24 teams, with promotion/relegation to AAAA (or whatever it’s called. AAAA would start with the Orioles, Royals, Tigers, Mariners, Marlins, Pirates, the new Montreal Expos, Portland Mavericks, Las Vegas Outlaws, Charlotte Teal Sox and some promoted minor league teams so that there’s 16 althoghter. Baseball would have room for growth in AAAA and fans aren’t stuck watching the Yankees beat the Orioles 17 times. It’s not realistic, I know. It might not be better, but it might not be ridiculously bad either.
This doesn’t seem serious in terms of a viable option for the 2020 season, but in a way, it’s onto something. If you are the royals you get to play the pirates all year or any other bottom 10 team from the year before. The top 20 teams play the top 20 teams. Maybe allow two team from the bottom 10 to play in the wild card and “graduate” the next year. The other 8 teams in the playoffs come from the top 20. You’ll never see a team tank or hold back a player or not sign free agents in this scenario. Say what you want about the cheapskate A’s. They’ve won less that 74 games only twice in the last 22 years. Poor teams are capable of that if they’re smart and they’re trying. If your team isn’t doing that they go in the bottom 10 where revenue problems will bite you until you wise up.
It could be automatic promotion an relegation, or and this might be fun, a seven game series to determine who is in MLB-Level A. If the Royals were first in Level B, they might play the last-place Rangers to see which is in MLB the next season. The second-place Teal Sox might play the second-worst Reds. A team couldn’t sell off it’s closer and players in their final year without risking a consequence of spending a year ag a lower level. It might be fun to see the Dodgers line up their best pitchers against the Giants, as they try to force them into the Expos’ play-in game.
I understand this was largely a joke, but it sure seems like an awful lot of people who pay attention to baseball don’t like baseball. I constantly read that there are too many games and there are too many teams and games go on too long. Meanwhile, I, and the people I talk to just look forward to having a game to watch every night, and the worst day of the week is the off day.
This isn’t just a problem with baseball; NBA fans are notorious for the same thing. But I would think the long layoff without baseball would make us appreciate how much we usually have of it, not the opposite.
The problem people have isn’t really with games being too long, it’s with the same amount of baseball being stretched over a longer period so there is more dead time in any given game.