Let’s Fall in Love with Greg Bird Again
In 2016, catcher Gary Sanchez packed a season’s worth of production into the final two months of the campaign, recording more than three wins during that brief period. Last year, it was Aaron Judge who broke out — to such a degree that he nearly won the AL MVP, in fact. Sanchez wasn’t half-bad himself, building on his rookie season with four more wins.
At this time a year ago, though, neither Sanchez nor Judge was the story of Yankees camp. Rather, it was Greg Bird. In Grapefruit League play last spring, Bird hit eight home runs and posted a 1.654 OPS over 51 at-bats. He appeared poised to build upon 178 promising plate appearances as a rookie when he slashed .261/.343/.529 (137 wRC+) in 2015. But after missing all of 2016 with a labrum tear, the first half of Bird’s 2017 season was again derailed — in this case by a foot injury.
The first baseman’s numbers were ultimately pretty ugly, as he slashed just .190/.288/.422 in 170 PAs.
Upon his return from injury, however, Bird managed to show some life. In 29 second-half games, he recorded a .253/.316/.575 slash line and 126 wRC+. And his underlying batted-ball tendencies are even more encouraging.
The next stage of the air-ball revolution is not just about “up” but another direction.
Getting the batted ball up is the first step. After elevating, though, the next stage of the air-ball revolution — of the quest for maximum batted-ball efficiency — is pulling those air balls. Common sense dictates why that is: not only are MLB ballparks shallower down the lines, but batters typically have the most power in that direction.
The data support that line of reason, as well. Consider the following batted-ball data from last season:
| Field | AVG | SLG | wRC+ | % of batted balls |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opposite | 0.297 | 0.502 | 102 | 34.8% |
| Center | 0.394 | 0.698 | 180 | 36.1% |
| Pull | 0.569 | 1.299 | 389 | 29.1% |
Among all hitters to post at least 100 plate appearances in 2017, Bird had the ninth-lowest ground-ball rate, a figure that was in line with his minor-league record.
And out of 396 hitters to put at least 50 batted balls in the air last season, Bird ranked within the top quarter (60th overall) by pull percentage at 36.5%.
So Bird is avoiding ground balls at an elite rate and pulling more of his line drives and fly balls than most major-league hitters. That’s a promising combination: AL batters slugged 1.307 with a 398 wRC+ on pulled air balls last year. It’s particularly good in light of the right-field dimensions of Yankee Stadium, which make it one of the most favorable parks for left-handed pull power. According to FanGraphs’ park factor splits, the adjusted HR factor for left-handed batters is the highest at Yankee Stadium (128) of all major-league parks — six points over the next two favorable parks (Baltimore, Milwaukee).
Some actual footage of this ideal fit: a 344-foot Bird fly ball that went for home run last season:
https://gfycat.com/DishonestNewIslandwhistler
While we’ll have to see if Bird can hit lefties — or if he’s even allowed to face them much — the Yankees ranked only 14th in baseball with 72 home runs by lefties against right-handed pitching. As powerful as Giancarlo Stanton, Judge and Sanchez are — a trio of bats we project to combine for 127 home runs this coming year, one short of the Giants’ team total last season — they are all right-handed. Bird is the Yankees’ top left-handed power threat and he projects to be a good one. (If you’re curious, the single-season team home-run record is 264 set by the 1997 Seattle Mariners.)
Depth Charts forecasts a .253/.342/.493 slash line, 120 wRC+, and 31 homers for Bird in 588 plate appearances. Coupled with adequate first-base defense that’s good for a 2.1 WAR projection. Not bad, but with health, I think Bird is a good bet to exceed those solid projections. Bird had our attention last spring when he was the star of the Grapefruit League. He showed promise down the stretch when he returned to health. He should have our attention again.
A Cleveland native, FanGraphs writer Travis Sawchik is the author of the New York Times bestselling book, Big Data Baseball. He also contributes to The Athletic Cleveland, and has written for the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, among other outlets. Follow him on Twitter @Travis_Sawchik.
I have never fallen out of love <3
I actually thought he was going to be a better hitter than both Judge and Sanchez when they were all coming up…Bird seemed like a much better hitter than either one, and he had more than enough power.
I think we can pretty safely say he won’t be a better hitter than Judge, but I still think he’s got a chance to be a Top 5 1B.
You can always renew your vows
But what do we know about his contact ability? He ran an alarming K rate in his debut and a not-great one last year?
He seems like a Four Outcome player – walk, HR, K, and ground into the shift. As Pod pointed out, he also ran a very high ground-ball into the shift rate last year.
that rate is just a combination of teams positioning for him like a pure pull guy, and him being a pure pull guy. as the article stated his groundball rate is not high. he may have abnormally low production on those groundballs but it’s not a big loss in the big picture.
In a small sample, Bird’s body of work against MLB left-handers has actually been better. In 81 PA vs lefties, he has slashed .257/.346/.500 with .243 ISO and 127 wRC+. But in 267 career PAs against major-league RIGHT-handed pitchers, Bird has left a dismal trail of .218/.307/.470 with an ISO of .252 (there’s your hope!) and a wRC+ of 108. His K rate is 27% against both sides. Mike Podherzer’s profile snippet for Bird seems a little more sobering, which is a good thing.
I just can’t Nick Johnson did this too me too many times.
Travis,
Short and sweet, but to the point. With Judge, Stanton, Sanchez, Didi, and Bird, lust seems more appropos than love.
If he can stay healthy, he should at least be useful and has the potential to be very good.
If.
AL batters slugged .798 on pulled air balls, but the table shows pulled air ball SLG of 1.299 overall? What the holy hell is happening in the NL?
I’m not sure where the .798 number came from – the 1.299 is correct, but it’s 1.307 in the AL and 1.289 in the NL. (This is the slugging percentage on all line drives and fly balls that were pulled in 2017.)
Ok, after playing with the split tool a little bit, the .798 is what AL batters slugged on ALL fly balls and line drives last year, not just ones that were pulled. Perhaps Travis can fix that sentence?
Fixed. My apologies.
His monster homer off of Andrew Miller in the ALDS will never be forgotten.
Tino Martinez believes he’s a great hitter, not just an average hitter like the projections show. If he’s even say, slightly above average .275ish he could be the LH version of Paul Goldschmidt but w/ more power. I don’t think he’ll get there yet but, the sky really is the limit w/ Bird. If healthy, I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s better than both Stanton and Judge next year.
1. The projections available on Fangraphs think that Bird will be somewhere between 14% better than average and 24% better than average as a hitter, so I’m not sure where you’re getting that the projections think he will be an average hitter.
2. Is the “.275ish” that you reference as being slightly above average a batting average, BABiP, ISO, wOBA…? because .275 is neither slightly above average nor particularly comparable to Goldschmidt’s output in any of those categories.
3. Technically, every “he” in that paragraph with the exception of the last one references Tino Martinez. Sorry, I’m that guy.
4. I agree, if we assume full health for Bird all year, there is probably a decent (but still <50%) chance that he is better than both Stanton and Judge this coming season. It would be far from the craziest thing that's happened in baseball.
I think he is good. His K rates in the minors weren’t that high either so there might be room for growth, I think he can be a low 20s guy.
He might be a lowish babip guy though. It was higher in the minors but in the majors those pull/fb guys tend to be lower babip guys since they dont hit many grounders but if they do it is always pulled and also because FBs just have a 130 babip.
But of course while FBs are rarely hits if they are not homers,homers don’t count for babip but they are hits. Bautista is a classic example of the low GB pull hitter who had low babips but sometimes a higher average then babip.
He did run a 126 wRC+ in 29 second half games…and followed that up with a 151 wRC+ in 13 playoff games. He’s hit lefties well in his career, especially in Game 3 of the ALDS. xWOBA loved him last year too. I haven’t fallen out of love.