Let’s Make Some Deadline Trades!
We’re just about a week from 2022’s trade deadline, and so far, it’s been a quiet one. This weekend’s trade of Daniel Vogelbach for Colin Holderman is the most significant swap yet this July unless you’re a fierce partisan for Christian Bethancourt or Tyler Wade.
It would be highly unusual if we didn’t get a lot more trades of far more significance this week, but knowing what happens will involve some waiting. And since waiting to talk about moves isn’t fun, it’s about time for my yearly feature in which I kick things off with some trade imagineering. None of these are predictions of what actually will happen, but kind of a kickoff exercise where we have a lot of fun discussions — hopefully not too many of them involving people being mad at ol’ Szym!
The San Francisco Giants acquire OF Juan Soto from the Washington Nationals for SS Marco Luciano, P Kyle Harrison, OF Luis González, OF Heliot Ramos, and the privilege of not being P Patrick Corbin’s employer
I’m actually unconvinced that the Nationals trade Soto at all this week and expect a trade to be more likely in the winter than right now. While the Yankees seem to be the clearest target, I think them making a deal is the most likely at a point where they have more clarity on the status of Aaron Judge and how much money exactly they have to play with, especially with Washington’s apparent insistence on including Corbin in a deal.
Corbin is a giant monkey wrench; this is not a simple case of a small amount of money going one way or another, but a deal with more than $60 million remaining, with little hope of it being anything but a de facto charge. I think the inclusion opens the way for a team in a better situation to eat the $60 million rather than give another top prospect. For me, that makes trying to conjure a deal with the Giants work. San Francisco has payroll room to play with and doesn’t have the depth in top prospects that teams like the Yankees and Mariners can offer. Plus, it may just be my memory playing tricks with me, but I remember the Giants having a long relationship with another franchise corner outfielder with tremendous power and nearly clairvoyant plate discipline.
Ramos is basically one of the extras at this point, and González is included because Washington also appears to want current major league talent in return for some odd reason. If Washington’s red line is Logan Webb, I politely thank them for my time and look elsewhere; if I’m starting with a trade of three years of Webb for two years of Soto and a forced acquisition of Corbin, I’m not sure I’d include any prospects of interest. Two top-50 prospects and picking up Corbin’s deal, the financial equivalent of a 65 FV prospect, plus a decent MLB-ready player and an extra or two is as far as I would go if I’m the Giants.
The St. Louis Cardinals acquire P Luis Castillo from the Cincinnati Reds for SS Masyn Winn, OF Alec Burleson, and P Tink Hence
I’ve seen people talk about the Castillo possibility before, but that usually involves trading Matthew Liberatore to the Reds, something I don’t see happening. It’s more likely that they need Liberatore at some point again this season, even with Castillo on the roster, given the injury concerns surrounding most of the team’s rotation. Winn has had a solid year that looks even better when you consider how young he is, and Burleson can likely be in Cincinnati’s outfield fairly quickly. The Reds are fascinated with raw young talents (see Hunter Greene), and I think that Hence would be an extremely interesting pitcher for them. As for St. Louis, Castillo would stabilize the rotation quite a bit and give the team a head start on 2023. Soto would be even more fun here, but I don’t think that outfield is the greatest need.
The New York Mets acquire C Willson Contreras from the Chicago Cubs for 1B Mark Vientos
While some Cubs fans may think this is a light return, Vientos has been a favorite of ZiPS for a while, and it’s a similar return to what the Cubs received last year for a couple months of the services of Kris Bryant and Javier Báez (Pete Crow-Armstrong wasn’t as highly ranked then as he is now). Vientos has fascinating power, but he’s already hitting well in Triple-A, and I get the impression that if the Mets were that wedded to his services, we would already have seen him in the majors at some point this season. Instead, they have more faith in a J.D. Davis/Daniel Vogelbach DH combo.
The Mets have a hole at catcher with James McCann out with injury and, let’s be honest, they have a hole at catcher when McCann is perfectly healthy. New York is nursing a small lead in the NL East, and filling one of the biggest problem positions is a good way to help maintain it. As for Chicago’s end of things, Greg Deichmann has struggled this year for the Cubs at Triple-A, and there’s room for an additional 1B/DH with power at the major league level.
The San Diego Padres acquire OF Joey Gallo from the New York Yankees for OF Corey Rosier
The hiccup in a possible Gallo trade isn’t so much the prospect the Yankees get in return but the willingness of a real contender to take a chance on him amid a truly abysmal season. The Padres like to roll the dice a bit on these upside plays, and I can’t see any of the other playoff-relevant teams being as interested in Gallo as they are. While the Brewers might be a better fit, I’m not sure they’re as likely to take the gamble. San Diego needs power, and if the cost is minimal, seeing what a change of environment can do for a couple of months is an interesting play to me. Rosier would add some center-capable depth to the Yankee organization; ZiPS sees a peak from him that doesn’t look dissimilar from Brett Gardner before his power breakout.
The Minnesota Twins acquire P Frankie Montas from the Oakland Athletics for OF Austin Martin, P Matt Canterino and P Simeon Woods Richardson
In the three-way fight for the AL Central, the Twins could use another starting pitcher, especially one who could return next season. Castillo fits the bill, but since I already sent him to the Cardinals, I can’t send him to the Twins also, or else the dream police may be coming to arrest me. ZiPS currently ranks the Twins as the No. 21 rotation in baseball, but adding Montas would bump that up to 13.
A lot of the shine has come off Martin as his power has not developed, but that’s less of a big deal for a team playing in the Corporate Name of the Year Coliseum (at least for now). One of Oakland’s strengths is its ability to churn out No. 2 starters at will, and I think the team could do well ironing out Canterino’s command and Woods Richardson’s lack of velocity.
The Atlanta Braves acquire OF Andrew Benintendi from the Kansas City Royals for P Freddy Tarnok, OF Brandol Mezquita, and OF Tyler Collins
The Yankees are connected with Benintendi regularly in the rumor mill, but I think that he’s a better fit for an NL team that has a lower probability of having road games in Toronto. The Braves could use an extra outfielder, and unless the bidding becomes fierce, Benintendi’s free agent-to-be status likely keeps the prospect return from being too rich, especially as he’s not one of Kansas City’s legacy players. Adam Duvall and Eddie Rosario haven’t been cutting it in left field for the Braves, and due to season-ending surgery, the former is no longer even an option. Tarnok gives the Royals a pitcher who is not too far away from the rotation, and Mezquita and Collins give them some additional outfield depth, of which the system could use more.
The Chicago White Sox acquire OF Ian Happ from the Chicago Cubs for P Jared Kelley, OF Oscar Colas, and P Norge Vera
I so want to get the White Sox in the Soto race, but I don’t see them having the prospects to tempt the Nationals, nor do I think that owner Jerry Reinsdorf is willing to shell out a hefty sum to keep him in Chicago for the next decade. Josh Bell is another possibility, but he’s not an outfielder, and I’m trying not to leave the White Sox with Eloy Jiménez and Andrew Vaughn playing the outfield simultaneously with Luis Robert out with blurred vision and lightheadedness. I’d also love to give them a second baseman, but the pickings are slim there.
Similar to the problems with a theoretical Soto trade, I don’t think the White Sox have the players to dent the apparent intransigence of the Pirates and Athletics to trade Bryan Reynolds and Ramón Laureano, respectively. That leaves Happ, a versatile outfielder who has put a disappointing 2021 season behind him. He’s a good enough outfielder to keep Vaughn from needing to wear a glove and can fill in at center field. Given the team’s situation, even his ability to at least fake being a second baseman has some value with the Sox.
Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.
Using your SFG trade as a starting point for a SEA offer — Soto + Corbin for Kelenic + Trammell + Marte + Hancock. Thoughts? I was thinking that Kelenic is the Ramos in the deal (young, talented, poor performance to date), Trammell is Gonzalez (Trammell is younger and had a higher ceiling as a prospect), Marte as Luciano and Hancock as Harrison. Luciano and Harrison are each maybe a tick above Marte and Hancock as prospects.
The talent isn’t too dissimilar, but does SEA have the stomach to eat Corbin’s contract?
Yeah, I think the M’s will be right there on this as long as they are willing to include Marte, and they should be with other SSs in the org.
I would guess this plays out similar to the Betts situation, where the Dodgers/Yankees become the favorites if the Nationals do indeed insist on dumping Corbin and not a pure talent return, whereas the Padres, Cardinals and others can offer pure-talent packages that line up better with the Nationals timeline.
The Dodgers and Yankees have a harder time offering equivalent pure-talent packages without dipping into talent already at the MLB level or that they’re expecting to contribute in a place of weakness in fairly short order. And since those things weaken the existing title push, it makes the benefit of adding Soto smaller (on top of any difference in current performance at that position vs the competitors, notable in the Dodgers instance because their LF is a lot better than the worst Padres corner OF slot, so the Padres realize more benefit from the same performance to the tune of an extra win to win and a half)
Marte and Luciano are very similar prospects, and Brash has a lot of similarities to Harrison. If you threw in Kelenic and offered to take back Corbin’s contract as well I think the Mariners would easily beat the offer here, even without including Trammell (who is better than Gonzalez) and Hancock. Kelenic is still much more valuable than Ramos. Kelenic could turn it around and even be an above-average regular; Ramos, at this point, looks like a possible 4th or 5th outfielder.
The M’s can also throw Kyle Lewis into the mix or rather than Trammell. So they can put together a very viable package of young players and prospects.
IMO, the big surprise for me is the requirement that a team take back Corbin. It sure seems like this is something that the Nationals are at least asking about. Maybe they just figure that the prospect value is so high it’s not even worth asking about what they really think Soto is worth and just put in Corbin instead.
I think everyone is adding Corbin to the trade simply because it’s close to impossible for a team to acquire Soto by himself. His value is just too high.
If the Nats want any hope of contending in the next 4-5 years, they should try. Fangraphs lists dozens of players for each team in its prospect write ups. Just because a team has never really traded more than 4-5 guys doesn’t mean they can’t.
The Nats farm is a joke. Their young MLB talent is underwhelming (being nice, Ruiz and Josiah have potential, sure). Getting a couple premium prospects for Soto and using the rest of his value to dump Corbin is essentially saying you don’t really want to rebuild right now. Even if you get a player that turns out to be great, that isn’t enough. The Nats are the worst team in MLB right now and that is with Soto. They need a haul of prospects and then a prayer that most of them turn out. Otherwise they will be perpetually hoping to maybe beat out the Marlins for 4th place for at least most of the rest of this decade.
Lowering the return because you demand that someone eat the Corbin contract, so that you can save money during a window when you’re not prepared to throw it at anyone anyway, because you’re rebuilding, would be a colossal waste.
Of course it would. But when have you ever known owners to let things like that get in the way of profit?
It only makes sense through the lens of selling the team. You probably have a bigger market for the franchise if the initial years’ payroll cash flow is as limited as possible. That said, it still sucks.
Agreed. But I don’t think anyone pays the cost for just Soto in prospects. So they’d have to wait and pass the time while Soto’s control dries up a little and the price comes down otherwise.
Without Corbin, what’s the equivalent deal from SF? I don’t think Luciano’s, Harrison, Mayos, Ramos gets you that close.
But for disagreeing about Ruiz (I think 2 fWAR is his floor), this is pretty much spot on. Including Corbin in a deal at the expense of prospect is infuriating, tbh. To get an idea of how bad the farm is with respect to position prospects, Eric’s system review has the closest 45 or higher position prospect with an ETA of 2025. Basically, no internal position helps for 2023 or 2024, the remaining years of Soto control.
I agree with you, I was just saying why Corbin is almost always included.
I saw something suggesting that the Nats did want the other side to take Corbin. Not sure how important that is to them but it’s something they want. IMO they’d be way better off just maxing the prospect return. Corbin’s deal expires in 2 years and they can just not spend money elsewhere until then.
lost in all the corbin talk is fringe possibility that he actually turns it around a bit on his own. in which case, the nats could just salary dump him for peanuts a year from now. I am a fan of corbin the reliever idea. Why not? hes as bad as one could possibly be right now.
and i think all the speculation has been speculation thus far, i haven’t seen a credible writer suggest that corbin is do or die. but maybe preller or jerry will be crazy enough to accept that to make it happen. i think thats what the nats may be angling for
Maybe its a negotiating ploy?
“If you won’t take Corbin we’ll want an extra 65 or equivalent.” 😆
The other angle I thought of is that by including Corbin in Soto deal you are then freeing up payroll over the next couple of seasons. Not that I expect Nats to compete but that gives them flexibility to sign several buy low players each off season with the idea they bounce back and are then later traded at deadline.
In theory the prospects on the sign and flips could be greater than the add’l prospects they would get for not including Corbin in a Soto deal.
The Lehners are selling and taking that money!
I think there are teams that could turn Corbin around. The Mariners are one and so are the Padres. Both of them should have confidence in their pitching coaches to get him back to at least average.
My take is on a similar vein. Corbin’s underperformed his xFIP 3 years in a row. While I’m far from an expert on being able to duly explain it, to my casual stat-nerd eye, I can see some teams out there thinking they might be able to get some kind of production out of him.
From there, it’s a matter of how much of a discount does that give on the talent cost.
Why does including Corbin have to mean the receiving team pays his entire contract? Nats can kick in a bunch of the money
If the Lerners are clearing the books for a sale, it makes all the sense in the world. They’re not going to be personally invested down the line, so prospect return doesn’t mean as much to their timeline. Clearing the books for less liability opens up more options as far as buyers.
The ownership situation is likely playing a role in this trade as well. The current Nationals owners are looking to sell the team shortly. Getting as many long term obligations off the book as possible will help in making the sale that much more appealing to potential buyers.
But, I think Dan is correct in that I doubt that Washington will move Soto before this winter. Realistically, no team can really offer comparable value for 2+ seasons of cost controlled Soto. So, squeeze what marketing value you can out of him for 2022. Rizzo will still be able to command a kings ransom for him in the winter meetings.
Mike Rizzo said in an interview this week that he didn’t want to ‘dilute’ return with selling bad salary, so I think he heard the outrage at the prospect (sry) of doing that enough to feel compelled to quell it specifically.
Happ is not going to help anyone on defense
At first I thought that the White Sox weren’t giving up enough, but the more I look at that deal…the more I think it’s fair?
He’s substantially better than all of Jimenez, Sheets, Vaughn, and Pollock defensively. So, yeah, he’d help the Sox on defense.
You’re in a Saw-like situation and have to choose whether to play Happ, Vaughn, or Jimenez in the field. Who do you pick?
Jimenez, if the goal is to have the best LF defense. He’s been visibly and measurably improved since coming back last year. He’s not utterly lead-footed and lacking range like Vaughn, his reputation as a defensive butcher has more to do with extraordinary defensive lowlights + hurting himself in silly ways that have mostly been resolved by playing LF with more common sense
If your goal is to have the best LF defense you should go with the guy who has graded out positively in LF over the last few seasons and not the guy who consistently injures himself with his inability to play LF
AC Slater knows his defensive metrics
“You’re in a Saw-like situation and have to choose whether to play Happ, Vaughn, or Jimenez in the field. Who do you pick?”
Just let the trap snap shut and end it all 😀
Not that I disagree with these trades, but not sure how you can honestly believe the team with the best record in baseball comes out of the deadline by just selling / getting worse? Has that ever actually happened ?
I don’t think he’s suggesting this is every trade that will be made
I would be very tired, and our editors very annoyed if I submitted a 45-trade, 8500 words article!
Yeah but think of the glory that would be yours.
But we’d love it!
Is trading Joey Gallo actually making the Yankees worse?
Most Yankee fans (and a lot of pundits) think that trading Gallo would be addition by subtraction.
But would it actually be true?
Well, see, when you give up a player on pace for a 0.5 WAR season (at a cost of $10 million)….it’s called addition by subtraction.
This seems like a higher return for Montas than Castillo, and I always thought of them as being pretty similar in terms of value. Although maybe ZiPs really likes Alec Burleson or something.
It does seem like a lot for a year and change of Montas, especially with the shoulder thing right now. A 50, a 45+, and a 45? Pretty steep.
FG isn’t too high on Burleson and Hence but Baseball America has both of those guys (and Winn of course) as top 100 prospects. That package for Castillo looks huge, IMO. Definitely more than the Cards would give up. If that’s the cost for a top pitcher the Cards will go dumpster diving again, as is tradition.
Burleson and Hence are Top 100 prospects according to BA? My goodness. If the Nats agree, they really should be the frontrunners for Soto. That’s like three different 50s; you add in Jordan Walker and you’ve got one heck of a group of players to deal from.
I admit I’m pretty skeptical of Burleson and Hence as 50s but if the Nats think that…then it doesn’t matter.
The differences with Soto (besides not wanting to give up Walker) is that the Cardinals can’t afford his salaries for the next two years, plus they don’t need an outfield upgrade in the first place with Bader coming back soon.
On the other hand, they definitely need a starting pitcher. I’m just not sure they’re willing to give up or need the premium of getting one with an extra year of control like Castillo.
If Martin wasn’t drafted in the top 10, is he even a 45 at this point? That Castillo package is much better.
I still think he’s a 50, IMO. I do think if you’re just scouting the stat line he’s a 40+, especially since he’s very likely a second baseman. But it’s hard to completely overlook the elite hit tool, and it’s not like he has 30 raw power. I certainly wouldn’t put him below a 45.
The complete lack of game power makes me think he’d get the bat knocked out of his hands the higher he goes. He walks a bit but that’s it. He’s Kevin Newman who doesn’t play short. A usable piece at the big league level for sure, but I sure wouldn’t want him as a centerpiece for a deal this deadline.
Martin has struggled all year and the pitchers Oakland is getting are on the IL/Rehabbing. The Castillo package crushes in comparison.
Yeah I agree that the Giants should be in the Soto hunt all the way. They’d be giving up a lot in this proposal but they might do that.
i am happy with any trade that does not include Bryan Reynolds. The Pirates offense is well, offensive, and it is nice to see a professional hitter . Absent him they are a wife and ground ball machine
Wife and ground ball machine? Awesome typo.
I love my wife machine.
Obviously, she keeps you grounded.
Frankly, they’re a whiff and ground ball machine even with Reynolds, but I agree that they’d risk redefining abysmal without him.
Same. Although I wouldn’t be averse to trading Bednar. Good closers on bad teams are a waste. Plus a bad-bodied, high-effort guy gives me Joel Hanrahan vibes where he falls off a cliff.
Not sure I see the Mets giving up all those controllable years again to the Cubs (PCA deal a yr ago). But they may be willing to push chips in. We’ll see. They may also be monitoring the availability of Christian Vazquez. I would be.
If Vientos & PCA are good players on the Cubs in the near future but Contreras comes to the Mets, I’ll take it.
I think they’ll live with parting with a non-elite corner guy.
If the Cubs are willing to take Vientos for Contreras the Mets should make that deal yesterday. I know that Dan said that ZiPs really likes Vientos but unless you think he can meaningfully drop the Ks he’s not going to amount to much. As it stands I think there’s a decent chance that the Mets get outbid by the Padres or another catcher-needy team on a deal for Contreras if Vientos is the return.
Vientos is just 22. The issue with him is less about his contact rate going fwd (which will almost certainly improve), it’s about what direction his secondary skills are moving. His mobility is already questionable and he may only be viable at 1B. Those things may limit his value, but otoh the power looks legit. The hope is that he matures into a more well rounded bat.
I mean, he’s definitely already a 1B / DH type. Hard to profile as an R/R 1B.
Now, granted, the Mets have a pretty good example of a guy who beat the odds in Pete Alonso. But it’s worth noting that Vientos’s K rate in AA (28.4%) and this year in AAA (32.3%) are both higher than literally any single year that Alonso has had in the majors (Alonso’s highest was 26.4%). His offensive production looks a lot like the 2018-present version of Miguel Sano, and Sano is barely rosterable. Or Tyler Austin. If he improves, he’s…Mark Reynolds? Wil Myers?
How is it hard to profile as a R/R 1Bman?
Alonso
Mountcastle
Mancini
Cron
Abreu
Miggy
Gurriel
France
VGJ
Christian Walker
Goldy
Aguilar
I can go on, but, well you get the idea.
I think JD Davis is likely to be traded somewhere and Vientos probably hasn’t been called up because he was hitting 217316/370 vs righties in Syracuse headed into the break. I can’t take anymore of Mazeika(who can’t hit or catch), or Nido playing everyday when he’s carrying around a career wRC+ of around 50 yet Buck didn’t pinch hit for him with the game on the line Saturday night. McCann has been horrendous when he’s played. I would rather trade a lesser prospect and get Christian Vasquez from the Red Sox if they are gonna end up selling.
Vientos for Contreras sounds pretty dreamy to me.
The Mets have to keep pushing chips in while holding on to the best of their minor leaguers. Vientos is probably blocked by Baty at 3rd and Alonso at 1st, and with that K rate, I’m not giving him the DH role (plus I believe they have Vogelbach for one more year & can get a platoon pretty easily).
I have followed Vientos for a long time & hope he has a great career. But the HUGE hole at catcher for the Mets needs to be filled.
Question is would the Mets use Contreras as the catcher or the dh? I hope the former but the people that cover the team have talked about how high the team is on McCann’s and Nido’s defense and the pitchers love throwing to them.
I’ve heard that, too, but I doubt Scherzer, Bassitt et. al. would mind Contreras coming to the team.
As a Yankee I would LOVE that Gallo. Honestly DFA’ing him at this point would be a win, but getting any prospect return would be huge.
I am very curious about the Twins/Montas trade. That is the return the Twins got last year for Berrios (who also had 1.5 years of team control) plus their #6 prospect. Is Montas that much better than Berrios or have Martin/SWR lost that much value in the past year?
I think the answer is both.
with price, kimbrel, anderson, and heaney ($48.5mm) coming off the books this year (leaving aside other free agents that i think la will make a significant effort to retain), i’d think a package of cartaya (his bat should carry first base even if ruiz is “blocking” him)/busch/pages/stone/amaya from the dodgers for soto and corbin (with the nats eating 50% or more of his money) makes sense.
the dodgers carve out a lot of prospect value, but retain miller and vargas (who, with pepiot, are the most ready to contribute this and next year), add a generational bat to an already potent lineup (with budget to extend him), give themselves optionality to trade or even nontender bellinger, and trade from positional strength.
the nats effectively give themselves an infield for the next half decade, cut a lot of capital expenditure (good for the team sale) and can add more pieces with the bell trade to secure the majority of a starting lineup. a 2023/4 lineup including ruiz, cartaya, busch, pages, garcia, and amaya, and a rotation with gray and stone at the top, are worth considering.
I don’t think that package beats the SF or SEA offer.
It depends a lot on what the Nats think of Cartaya, but catchers that far away from the majors have a high rate of breaking down and there are some real issues with his hit tool. I wouldn’t put him on the same level as Luciano or Marte, but maybe the Nats would.
I don’t think the Dodgers want to trade for Soto right now and instead, like the Yankees, would rather see how things look in between seasons with more certainty. If SF (or StL) wants to empty the cupboard, then they should as the marginal difference is bigger for them, obviously. But I think Dan’s point about LAD/NYY is correct based on their behavior and current status.
I do, however, see Friedman raiding some central divisions for pitching depth as he’s done with Trayce Thompson/Jake Lamb on the offensive side. DET/PIT have a need for minor league talent and some useful arms that LAD might be able to optimize (as they are wont to do). The Yanks are probably trying to turn Gallo+ into a reliever, I imagine.
Yikes, in this fantasy the Yankees really miss out on all the top targets eh? Maybe they’ll get David Robertson back at least.
If the Yankees include Peraza in either a Montas or Castillo deal, don’t they jump to the top of the list? I understand you’re trying to provide a more diverse set of trading partners, but I would think the Yankees would outbid either of the offers shown here with Peraza, Vasquez, and some other pitching prospect.
Yes.
As you may have noted, I’ve tried to avoid exact trades that other people have been speculating on, as much as possible. The idea is to workshop other interesting things!
On the Board, Peraza is a 50 and Vazquez is a 40, so that would imply the extra player would have to come from their 45+ range (a Gomez, Pereira, or Arias) to be roughly equal. Of course who knows how well the receiving teams’ valuations would match the Board.
I think Reds fans revolt if they trade Castillo to the Cardinals. I, for one, would be mildly displeased 🙁
By the time the Reds are good again, the Cardinals won’t have Castillo *or* the prospects!
I’m not saying the front office should consider the optics, especially if the Cardinals offer is truly the best out there. I just don’t think that watching a division rival improve to the Reds detriment exactly promotes a positive fan experience. Especially since that means we’d likely see Castillo kick the Reds ass 5-6 times next year.
Well, it’s possible they could extend Castillo with Mikolas’s salary coming off the books after 2023.
the in-division trade stuff should have been watered down so as to be almost inapplicable at this point, no? with interleague play so common and the various wild cards, who really cares? get the best bang for the buck, always and wherever.
I don’t think the Reds should have any concerns about trading Castillo to the Cards, for the reason Dan mentions. The Reds are getting pasted right now anyway, so who cares if Castillo makes their lives miserable for a couple of years? They’re already miserable.
But if I was the Cards it would depend a lot on their internal evaluations of the players. If you believe in them more than other likely prospects going to the Reds for Castillo I’m not sure I want to deal with that later.
There’s still an unbalanced schedule where you play intra-division games a lot more often. There’s also the first round bye in the playoffs if you can win the division with a better record than one of the other division winners in your league.
Next year there will only be 14 games total between division teams. Trading a SP, they’re likely only to face him 2-3 times in the year (and realistically the Reds should be happy with even a WC, there’s almost no way they are getting a playoff bye in the next couple years, any NL Central team would be lucky to).
No worries. There is no chance the Cardinals make that trade.
Well, they could if the actual prospect price isn’t as steep as depicted here. If the Reds really want all 3 of those high-level prospects, then I agree the Cardinals won’t do it.
My question for Mets fans (or, hell, anyone who knows our prospects), would you rather give up Vientos or Mauricio at this point? Mauricio is generally ranked higher, but I’m pretty skeptical of his sub .300 OBP at AA. I’d deal either for Contreras, even though as I type it I really hate the idea, being a prospect hugger and all.
Definitely rather give up Mauricio, though I’d hope he could net both Contreras and Robertson (he wouldn’t).
Dom + Mauricio might be though. It depends how well regarded Mauricio still is. For a team with a SS gap and some rebuilding years to try him out, he does have a lot of value, and the Cubs reportedly have interest in Dom too.
You can still dream on Mauricio, and he’s a middle-of-the-diamond guy. Vientos might be a good DH/1B if he cuts the K rate, but I don’t know that we can expect much more than that. Vientos for Contreras sounds great to me.
I’d much rather give up Vientos. I also am not high on Mauricio but he’s over a year younger than Vientos and there are some similar contact red flags. And most importantly, it is a whole lot easier to profile as a shortstop than as an R/R 1B.
I still think that the most likely teams to acquire Gallo will do so my simply waiting for him to be cut to make room for whenever the Yankees replace him with. It’s probably the same with Sano – why pay to jump the line on waivers…for a guy who is bad enough to be on waivers in the first place?
ZiPS still has Sano at a 123 wRC+ rest of season, and he’s under contract at a pretty reasonable price next year. Plenty of teams could use that at DH. He’s unbelievably frustrating during his long droughts, but still a useful player who’s worth something in return.
IMO Sano looks done. He’s barely even rosterable at this point.
He had 65 really bad PAs this year, no doubt. But his K%, BB%, and xWOBA are really right in line with his career and he’s looked terrible for 65 PAs before. I dunno.
No one looks good with a .121 BABIP.
To further advocate, Sano had a 53% hard hit rate and a 24% line drive% despite that BABIP, and was at .333/.422/.795 on his rehab assignment. He’s back on the Twins active roster now, so I don’t think he’ll get DFA’d this season. That 2023 option probably depends a lot on how he finishes the year.
I suppose but Sano wasn’t really rosterable last year either, was barely rosterable in 2020, and was replacement level in 2018. And he’s constantly hurt. He’s among the most obvious candidates to have their team option declined anywhere in MLB.
And yet ZiPS still has him at about 2 WAR/600. The option probably gets bought out, but he’ll have a job somewhere. Especially with the universal DH. Milwaukee?
Teams pay to jump waiver order all the time. That’s what’s happening when a DFA’ed player gets traded. If the GM thinks that there are multiple teams with interest in someone like Gallo then it totally makes sense to offer something. We’re not talking real prospects here though. I could see Gallo going for Pete PTBNL.
It’s a real shame that Adam Duvall had a season-ending wrist injury. Moving him back to the corner from centerfield really helped him. In June his wRC+ was 134 and in July it was 166. He had 10 home runs and had turned things around at the plate. Now the Braves really do need another corner outfielder.
After Jorge Soler missed 4 games of the NLCS because he was unvaccinated and tested positive for COVID, I am leery of acquiring unvaccinated players. I know MLB changed its COVID health protocols for 2022 so that someone is only tested if they are symptomatic, but that adds another level of uncertainty to their availability if there is another wave of COVID in the autumn.
Unless the Blue Jays fall out of it, even National League teams have to contend with the possibility that an unvaccinated player will be unavailable for 3-4 games of the World Series.
I think Colas/Vera are being undervalued here, they’re both very arrow-up in their first years stateside. Including both plus Kelley for Happ, who’s a useful player who would improve CHW, but is probably playing over his head per xwOBA/wOBA, is a little much. Jose Rodriguez + Matthew Thompson + like Kelley or Kade McClure, depending on haggling, would be a package that accomplishes the intended effect
I don’t agree – 1.5 years of a 2-4 win player who can cover multiple defensive spots should get you something pretty worthwhile back. Especially because there are going to be a lot of teams in the OF/CF market this week, and by all accounts Reynolds and Laureano aren’t available in it.
I think Happ brings a surprising return, because your backup if you need someone who can hack it (Happ it?) in CF is the super exciting Michael Taylor.
The other part of it is that those prospects going back aren’t really that good. They’re fine. They just look better because the White Sox don’t have anyone else.
‘2-4 win player’ seems a little heavy for a guy that never cracked 2 WAR in a season before this year. He’s got a career 2.5 WAR/600 but has never played enough to get 600 PA. I partially buy the improvements that have him on a career year, but it’s hard not to be a little skeptical of this year’s production (in which he’s outperforming his xwOBA and running a high BABIP) when he has a pattern of either partial seasons with great rate performance, or fuller seasons with mediocre rate performance.
I see you were too sentimental to trade Mancini.
What about the Red Sox forthcoming firesale?
If I am the Giants there is no way I would trade 3 of my top 5 prospects for a two year rental of Sosa (who will be getting $20 million plus in arbitration) plus the cost of Corbin’s contract ($55 million in 2023-2024). Keep the prospects and buy a free agent outfielder in the off season.
This is definitely a case of “you get what you pay for.” Which isn’t to say it’s the right move but it seems pretty fair.
Which FA are you getting that is anywhere near as good as Soto? Judge is about it and he’s 7 years older than Soto and lags him by quite a bit in the projections. Premium players command premium prices. If Soto truly is available, the Nats are getting a lot of good young prospects.
Who says they need anyone near as good as Soto when they can keep all their best prospects and pay the guy a significantly lower salary? The only issue is it doesn’t help them this season.
Hi, Dan. I just wanted to complain about your proposal to have Oakland trade Montas to Minnesota for a struggling Austin Martin and two injured pitchers. Why is it the A’s can’t get at least one healthy AND productive prospect?
Shades of Sonny Gray…
Jorge Mateo was hitting better than Martin is…
Jerry Dipoto exists and you didn’t do a mock trade for Seattle?? Blasphemy!
I can’t complain about this piece, but I agree it would be more fun with at least one bat**** crazy Seattle trade. Something in which Ohtani ends up in Seattle and Anaheim gets Kelenic and more? Or trading for Jazz Chisholm somehow?
I think the Cardinals would rather go with a rental starting pitcher. Besides the cheaper prospect cost, they do have Mikolas, Flaherty, Matz, Hudson, and Liberatore all coming back next year (along with potential depth of Woodford, Reyes, Pallante, Thompson, and Oviedo), and Wainwright might not be done yet.
The issue with that, though, is that most of the rental starters likely to be available aren’t very good. The best choices would be Quintana and Syndergaard, but there’s very little quality rental talent potentially available beyond them.
Agree. The Cardinals aren’t going to trade any of their top guys unless they bite the bullet for someone like Soto. And even then, they’d rather deal from their own arbitration guys (O’Neill, Bader, Hudson, Knizner, etc.) or prospects below the top-10 (Yepez, Nunez, Baez, Love, etc.).
I can’t imagine Mo trading Masyn Winn to any team in the division for any “available” player. They loooooooooove Masyn Winn.
A rebuilding team like the Nationals wouldn’t want any of those arbitration guys in return, anyway.
The Cardinals need to deal away at least one corner outfielder. They have O’Neill, Carlson, Yepez, Burleson, Dickerson, and Nootbar as options out there. I have a feeling Burleson will be on the move.
I could see that, but I’d rather see Burly drop into that DH/fourth outfielder role next year when Pujols and Dickerson are gone.
Yepez plays mostly DH, Nootbaar is a bench bat and headed back to AAA once either Yepez or Bader returns, Dickerson has been better lately but is still mostly a bench bat who will be a free agent at the end of the year (if not DFAed before then), and Burleson is fine staying in AAA for now.
It’s possible they could trade Burleson to land a starting pitcher, but it’s not necessary to include him in such a deal. If he stays, then he might get a September call-up, and he’ll definitely be strongly considered for a bench and part-time DH role next year.
Am I crazy to think that Corbin might still be a useful pitcher? Obviously that contract is way underwater and the ERA is high, but his xFIP is 3.97 and he seems to be able to eat innings. He could be a useful 5th starter and every team could use one of those. Put him in front of a better defense and I have to think he could run an ERA somewhere in the mid 4s. With Seattle trying to limit Kirby’s workload, they are an injury away from regular Justus Sheffield starts and that makes taking on Corbin’s contract a little more palatable.
Devan Fink wrote an article here proposing a method for fixing Corbin. so I think it’s plausible.
As it turns out, Devan is now interning with the Washington Nationals (he’s still only something like 21) and Corbin is still bad. So either Corbin hasn’t been able to change, no one has taken Devan’s advice, or the issues are a little deeper than a quick fix.
Since then Corbin has increased his SO%, decreased his BB%, and reduced his HR rate. He is just running a .368 BABIP this year. Part of that might be him, but I just feel like he isn’t a true talent .360 BABIP guy.
FWIW, WSH has a team BABIP of .303 while SDP, SEA, NYY, and LAD are all under .280.
Our defense is bad
5.62 xERA doesn’t look good either. He’s getting hit hard.
His ERA has been 2 runs higher than his xFIP for 330 innings now, and it matches his xERA pretty well. He’s probably still worth a roster spot, but his value is pretty much zero.
Since 2020 he has run a .337 BABIP, the next highest qualified pitcher over that period is Gausman at .310. He’s such a huge outlier that there has to be some part of it that is him, but the gap is so big I find it hard to believe.
That’s fair enough. If he were a free agent, he’s the kind of guy that a bad team would pay a couple million bucks to soak innings while the prospects develop and maybe hope to tinker with and flip at the deadline, or try and convert into a reliever. Chris Archer’s 1/$3.5m with a mutual option contract, for example.
Yeah, I was thinking of him in the Archer mold, who is another guy who consistently underperformed his peripherals. That is the kind of piece that you don’t think anything of until you need it and don’t have it. It’s easy to look down on mediocre innings eaters until you have to call up struggling AAA pitchers for spot starts and end up burning your whole pen.
I’m sure last year’s Padres know exactly what you mean.
That is much lighter than I would have expected for SOTO. Not even a fv60. i would hope we could do much better than that.
This would be a pretty awful trade deadline if this is the only thing the Yankees did.
Patrick Corbin and Cash to balance contracts for Joey Gallo
I wouldn’t even go that far for Soto. Take out Gonzalez and I think that actually works. That Corbin contract is awful and if the Nats wants to shed it, they are going to have to give up a lot. It makes way more sense to me for them to just eat it the next two years and get highly thought of prospects that are available for 2024 and beyond
SWR dealt at the deadline for a top pitcher? Again? That would be amazing.
The Cardinals haven’t made a significant trade with the Reds since Dmitri Young decades ago. It has been about that long since the Cards and Cubs have made a significant trade. These teams just don’t make major deals.
Also, Mozeliak doesn’t trade for top-tier pitching. He has been at the helm for many years now, so his patterns are fairly easy to identify. He likes to acquire good players whose contracts prevent giving up too many prospects. The one pure prospect trade for Ozuna turned out terribly, so I’m not sure he wants to try again. I think you’ll see a fringy starter and reliever acquired. We’ll see!
The Goldschmidt and Arenado trades are also pure prospect for star player trades that have worked out pretty well so far.
Still, I agree that the Cardinals aren’t likely to go after a top-tier starter.
With Rizzo announcing he isn’t looking for teams to take Corbin, can you redo the soto trade to a more realistic team. Giants just don’t have the prospects. Mariners and Yankees still make the most sense
The Gardner/Rosier comparison strikes me as a really bizarre one to make. Not knowing anything about Rosier, I’m kind of assuming that puts him in the 4th or 5th OF mold.
I think most would consider Gardner’s power breakout to have occurred in 2014 when he hit 17 HR (or maybe 2013 when he had 8 HR but his ISO jumped pretty signficantly to .143). Gardner, however, had fWARs of 6.2 and 5.1 in 2010 and 2011 (before being injured almost all of 2012).
So that makes the comparison sound like Rosier is a surefire star or superstar if that’s the comparison being made. Even if you think those Gardner WARs are extremely inflated (e.g. by his great defensive #s, relatively high BABIP, or other reasons), you’re still probably talking about a 3-4 WAR all-star level of production.
Sure, the ZIPS projections for Gardner when he was in the minors were probably similar to Rosier’s projections now, but virtually no one will be able to tell you what Gardner’s older ZIPS projections were offhand (even amongst the more hardcore of the Fangraphs cognoscenti).
White Sox aren’t trading Colas since they just signed him. Bad business in a world of shady relationships and side deals.
Dan, there is simply no way the Reds will trade Castillo to St. Louis.
You know as well as I do that the city has calmed quite a bit from the on-field, awful April and even worse comments from the front office. If the Reds big trade is the 1a SP of the deadline to our rival, Fountain Square will literally be covered in blood.
Love the Cheap Trick “Dream Police”reference!