Are the Cubs Vulnerable to Strike Throwers?

I might need to prime you for this one first. I don’t know if this is something people are actually talking about, or if I just made this theory up. But it sounds like it could make sense, so let’s go forward. In Game 3, the Indians are throwing Josh Tomlin against Kyle Hendricks and the Cubs, in Chicago. That doesn’t seem to bode very well for the visitors. The Indians were already the underdog, and now they’re losing the DH and the home-field advantage. Our scoreboard page puts the Cubs’ odds of winning at 64%. You could argue a few points in either direction but the Cubs are supposed to win this game.

However, let’s theorize! How might you make yourself feel better about the Indians’ shot? We know Tomlin is by no means overpowering. He’s not a strikeout pitcher. What he is is a control pitcher, and in that regard he’s one of the best. He led the American League in strike rate, among qualified pitchers. He had baseball’s lowest walk rate, among qualified pitchers. Tomlin is forever around the zone, and, the Cubs offense just finished with the highest walk rate in baseball. Being disciplined about the zone has been a big part of the Cubs’ offensive equation. Doesn’t it make sense that the Cubs could struggle against strike-throwers, who consistently get ahead? Could Tomlin turn the Cubs’ discipline against them?

Pretty interesting theory, right? Yeah! No. Sorry, but, nope. Tomlin isn’t poised to turn the Cubs’ walk rate into a weakness. Sorry if I just spoiled the rest of the article, but if Tomlin is going to succeed, he’s going to have to do it simply by executing almost perfectly, just like everyone else.

We’ve run some similar studies before. Recently, I tried to take a look at whether the Cubs struggled to an unusual degree against great pitchers. We’ve also examined whether the Cubs struggled against power pitchers, or strikeout pitchers. This is another little study powered by the Baseball-Reference Play Index. I looked at the numbers for every pitcher who faced the Cubs this season. I looked at their numbers against the Cubs, and I looked at their numbers overall, against everyone. I separated the pitchers into four groups, of 77 pitchers each, ordering them by their overall walk rates. In the table below, Group 1 includes the 77 pitchers with the lowest season walk rates. The Group 4 pitchers had the highest season walk rates.

Here’s everything:

Obviously, this year, the Cubs walked the least against the stingiest pitchers. The Cubs’ walk rates go in the same direction as the pitchers’ overall walk rates. But the ratios are pretty consistent, with the Cubs out-walking the rest of the league by roughly 20%. It was the same against the best control pitchers and the worst control pitchers. And the next columns are even more important. By OPS, against the best control pitchers, the Cubs offense was 4% better than average. Against the worst control pitchers, it was 3% better than average. There’s maybe a little blip there in Group 3, but I wouldn’t read too much into it. Once again, there’s consistency here. The Cubs do better than average, whether the pitcher is a strike-thrower or a strike-wanter.

I’m sure it can’t be that surprising. It’s very possible this is looking into a theory you’d never heard before this very post. Now, it’s true I could’ve done this with greater rigor. I didn’t control for the identities of the Cubs’ hitters, and maybe they weren’t distributed evenly. I’m extremely skeptical that would be true, though, and I just don’t see any signs of a real effect. The thing about the Cubs is, they can hurt you in different ways. They’ll draw walks if you’ll provide them. They’ll hit strikes if you’ll provide them. This is typical of really good lineups. They can handle strikes and balls, and all this means is the Cubs might be a little extra aggressive going after first or second pitches.

The Cubs didn’t have trouble this year against Bartolo Colon, or Jameson Taillon, or Mike Leake. They struggled against, say, Johnny Cueto, but Cueto is something beyond just a control artist. Tomlin’s whole game plan is strikes, and that shouldn’t give him any particular advantage. Every at-bat is going to be difficult. And Tomlin almost certainly shouldn’t see the sixth inning. Perhaps not even the fifth.

I mentioned the other day that, according to our splits — which go back to 2002 — Tomlin has the biggest difference on record in performance with the bases empty, and with runners on. With the bases empty, he’s allowed a .303 wOBA. With the bases not empty, that’s shot up to .367. Nobody’s split has been worse, so that could be one key for Tomlin — keep the leadoff guy away from the basepaths. It would also suit the Indians to prevent Tomlin from even attempting a third trip through the order. I don’t think Terry Francona would dare to allow that, not in the World Series, not with a fresh bullpen. Tomlin’s outing should be limited, and he’ll want to keep people off base. That doesn’t even qualify as advice. That’s just saying something obvious.

The Indians will be underdogs in Game 3, just as they’re underdogs in the series. I don’t think there is any special key for Josh Tomlin; he just needs to hit his spots as often as possible, and hope. He’s not a bad pitcher, so that’s something. And he definitely impressed against the Blue Jays. This is another chance for the Indians to try to steal a win in advance of another turn for Corey Kluber. Do that and the momentum shifts. I just wouldn’t be counting on them to do that.