Let’s Scout the Players Coming Over From Asia
It’s time for another cycle of prospect lists and, as has become customary, we’re starting with scouting reports on pro players in foreign leagues, with a focus on players available for MLB free agency this offseason. On The Board, you can access a fresh batch of scouting reports and evaluations for relevant players from Nippon Professional Baseball, the Korea Baseball Organization, and the Chinese Professional Baseball League in Taiwan, as well as reports on some young players we’ve identified as potentially impactful long-term prospects. For those who need a crash course on the age- and pro experience-driven lines of demarcation that dictate how MLB teams sign international players, we’d point you to a number of MLB.com glossary entries, including those on international free agency for those in Asian pro leagues, international amateur free agency and bonus pool restrictions, the Japanese posting system, and the Korean posting system.
It can be a bit overwhelming to sift through so many different types of players on that section of The Board — it’s a real apples and oranges situation when we’re talking about some guys who are in their 30s and others who are fairly young — so we’ve broken many of them into digestible subgroups below, with focus on the crop that is purported to be coming over this offseason. You’ll notice that some players appear across multiple categories. The Board has each player’s full scouting report and tool grades — think of this as more of a table of contents.
Murakami
Munetaka Murakami, 3B/1B, Yakult Swallows (NPB)
Like Roki Sasaki last year, the 25-year-old Murakami gets his own section because he’s pretty comfortably the most famous player of this group and his arrival is the most anticipated. At the time of his volcanic breakout in the 2021 and 2022 seasons, you couldn’t help but impatiently twiddle your thumbs waiting for the time when Murakami would matriculate to our shores. Now he’s doing so as real questions about his ability to make a viable rate of contact swirl around his profile. Murakami has very special left-handed power, easily a 70 or 80 on the scouting scale, and his 56-homer peak season exemplifies what he can do when he’s accessing that power regularly. In 2023, his strikeout rate regressed up to 28.1%, near where it was when Murakami was still an improving teenager, and it’s hovered in that range for the past three seasons. That’s a pretty big, scary number for a Japanese hitter trying to transition to MLB.
Murakami’s splits against good velocity (63% contact rate since 2022) and against secondary pitches (just above 50% in 2025) are even more concerning. Essentially, every secondary pitch type played like an elite offering against him in 2025. This may be because Murakami dealt with a litany of injuries from the end of 2024 through the middle of 2025 (toe, elbow, oblique), or it might be remedied with a tweak to the way his hands set up so that he can more regularly be on time against good fastballs. But if Murakami is only ever the quality of contact hitter we’ve seen the last three years, with no changes or improvements, he basically can’t be a good MLB hitter. Aside from Joey Gallo, there really isn’t precedent for someone making this little contact and having a sustained, successful career of any kind.
The general consensus among our contacts is that all it will take for Murakami to land a huge contract is for a couple of teams to have both the budget and the will to pursue him because of his power potential, and then try to make changes that actualize it. Elite left-handed power doesn’t grow on trees, and there are reasons to believe Murakami has been compromised and hitting beneath his true talent for the last little while. He’s going to be a very expensive lottery ticket. Caveat emptor.
Poised for Immediate Impact
Tatsuya Imai, RHP, Seibu Lions (NPB)
Kazuma Okamoto, 1B/3B, Yomiuri Giants (NPB)
Cody Ponce, RHP, Hanwha Eagles (KBO)
The 27-year-old Imai has steadily improved as a strike-thrower and innings-eater each of the last three years, and his fastball was still sitting in the mid-90s at the end of 2025 even though he’d worked 160-plus innings for the second consecutive season. Imai’s delivery arguably doesn’t take full advantage of his special athleticism and flexibility, and he might find another gear in MLB. He has the stuff of a good mid-rotation starter and is in his prime.
Okamoto, 29, is the bumper bowling version of Murakami. He’s safer and, especially during the last two years, has improved his contact performance against good fastballs such that we’re more confident his bat will translate immediately. He doesn’t have the same overall ceiling as Murakami and he’s a few years older, so his contract will probably come in below Murakami’s even though he’s a safer short-term bet.
Ponce’s deal should exceed the two-year, $15 million deal Erick Fedde 페디 got a couple of offseasons ago after he experienced a late-career renaissance in Korea much the way Ponce did in 2025. Ponce totally reshaped his physique, added two ticks to his fastball and developed a plus splitter, and the added velocity carried over to his breaking pitches, which got better as a result. Not only is Ponce totally different than he was when he left the U.S., but he’s totally different than he was only about a year ago. He should be able to contribute as a good team’s fourth starter and command a two-year deal in the $20 million – $25 million area.
Might Not Come At All
Hiroto Saiki, RHP, Hanshin Tigers (NPB)
Jo Hsi Hsu, RHP, Wei Chuan Dragons (CPBL)
Drew Anderson, RHP, SSG Landers (KBO)
Lewin Díaz, 1B, Samsung Lions (KBO)
Our sources cautioned us that the 27-year-old Saiki, who has a plus splitter and surgical command, is not a lock to come over. Hsu is going to be fascinating because it’s probable that most MLB teams consider him a reliever. He may decide to head to NPB, where he’s more likely to start, and prove he can do it for a year or two before coming to MLB. He’s an amazing athlete, but he didn’t hold his velo throughout 2025. We really like him as a reliever and think he could be a set-up man. Anderson has spent time pitching in both Japan and (more recently) Korea. A move back to NPB will be lucrative, and perhaps more stable and convenient for personal reasons (Anderson is married to a Japanese woman, for one), so unless an MLB team blows him away, he might just stick around in Asia and be a star there. Díaz hit 50 homers in Korea this year even though he’s still very chase-prone. It’s plausible teams will be skeptical of that power translating the way it did for Eric Thames a few years ago.
We Disagree About
Drew Anderson, RHP, SSG Landers (KBO)
Sung-moon Song 송성문, 3B, Kiwoom Heroes (KBO)
We had a sizable gap in our personal evaluations of these two players, ultimately using the higher of the two evals for both. One of us thinks Anderson can be a big league starter, a no. 4/5 on a good team, while the other sees him as more of a reliever. And one of us sees Song as a second division regular at third base, while the other is terrified that his swing won’t play against pitches away from him.
Other Potential Starters
Anthony Kay, LHP, Yokohama Baystars (NPB)
Foster Griffin, LHP, Yomiuri Giants (NPB)
Kona Takahashi, RHP, Seibu Lions (NPB)
Kay and Griffin are seeking MLB deals while touting roughly the same lefty swingman-level stuff they’ve showed in the past, but now with multiple seasons of NPB starting success to bolster their pitchability reputations. Takahashi can really pitch, but his fastball misses bats at a single-digit clip and that might be a barrier. Any of these three could be a suitable fifth starter next year.
Guys We’re More Comfortable Projecting in Relief
Jo Hsi Hsu, RHP, Wei Chuan Dragons (CPBL)
Ryan Weiss, RHP, Hanwha Eagles (KBO)
Jon Duplantier, RHP, Hanshin Tigers (NPB)
Sho Iwasaki, RHP, Orix Buffaloes (NPB)
Takahiro Norimoto, RHP, Rakuten Golden Eagles (NPB)
Andre Jackson, RHP, Yokohama BayStars (NPB)
James Naile, RHP, Kia Tigers (KBO)
Zach Logue, LHP, Doosan Bears (KBO)
Riley Thompson, RHP, NC Dinos (KBO)
Several pitchers in this group rely on deception (Logue, Iwasaki), or need to pitch backwards due to a lack of fastball effectiveness (Thompson, Naile, Jackson), or have shaky command or stamina (Weiss, Duplantier, Hsu), and therefore have some degree of relief risk even though some of them have started overseas. Hsu is grouped with that last trio at present, but his US debut may not come until he has more time to ply his trade in the rotation. He could be a late-inning option immediately upon conversion. Weiss looked really nasty late in 2025 when he came out of the bullpen in the playoffs. Duplantier and Jackson are speculative projections based on their lack of fastball effectiveness, command, and stamina.
Barriers to Entry
Livan Moinelo, LHP, Fukuoka Hawks (NPB)
Raidel Martinez, RHP, Yomiyuri Ginats (NPB)
As we’ve noted in prior iterations of these updates, Cuban players like Moinelo (a no. 3 starter type) and Martinez (a dominant closer) are playing in Japan with the blessing of the Cuban government, and so would need to defect and establish residency somewhere else in order to sign with an MLB team.
High-Variance Names to File Away
Shunpeita Yamashita, SP, Orix Buffaloes (NPB)
Do Yeong Kim 김도영, 3B, KIA Tigers (KBO)
Shion Matsuo, C, Yokohama BayStars (NPB)
Dong Ju Moon 문동주, SP, Hanwha Eagles (KBO)
There are a lot of players who we’ve identified as worth following for future years (and we’ll continue to add and update more of them on The Board), but this group has a few key names that we want to highlight apart from the rest. Yamashita (stress reaction in his back) and Kim (hamstring) have had recurring injury issues that put a damper on their 2025 seasons. The 23-year-old Yamashita has a big league body and flashes three plus pitches; we consider him the best long-term prospect in NPB right now. Kim has a power/speed combo (he might end up playing center field) and some hit tool risk. Matsuo is a raw, athletic, 21-year-old catcher. Moon has a powerful arm action and something close to a big league starter’s frame.
Imai is the prize here and I think he will get the biggest deal. I would expect every team over the tax line to be at least somewhat interested. The Mets and Blue Jays will definitely be interested in offering a long contract. Probably also the Dodgers, Phillies, Yankees, Red Sox, Giants, and Cubs will be at least somewhat interested, although I’m not certain which ones will be most aggressive.
Unless a deal goes well over $175M—a distinct possibility—I think the Orioles and Tigers should be involved. But they probably won’t be if the price tag gets over $100M and I think it absolutely will.
I’d love a write up about him.
There’s a good write up on The Board, but the basic idea is that he was a smaller pitcher (under 6 ft) with a mid-90s fastball who was “effectively wild” as a starter. Looked to be a reliever in MLB if he came over but then this year he put it all together.
There’s not a great comp for him, but I think Brayan Bello is a very reasonable expectation. He could be better though. He resembles a younger Sonny Gray, although he’s probably a best-case scenario.
Just to follow up on this: Imai is somehow listed at 5″11, 154 pounds. That is super tiny! I don’t think he’s only 154 pounds, that seems awfully light. He would be one of the 5 lightest pitchers in MLB for sure if that was true.
I’m looking at him now and he was rail thin a few years ago but it looks like he has filled out nicely. Not as thickly built as Sonny Gray or Brayan Bello but maybe like Zac Gallen. Gallen’s three inches taller but listed at 189 pounds. Or maybe Cionel Perez, who is listed at 5″10, 175.
Murakami is going to be really interesting to watch. This is what scouting is for — but it may be that the scouting department that’s vindicated is the one that tells its team to pass. I kind of suspect he’s going to get a lot less guaranteed money than people have been saying.
How much are people saying he is going to get? You (usually) need two teams with a high valuation for a big deal, and the team that I would think would be highest on him is the Padres and they are out of money.
Who else could be involved and might be willing to spend big money? The Angels? The Nationals? The Rangers? Reds? Maybe the Mets if Alonso leaves. I’m not totally convinced any of these teams are going to be willing to bid high, much less two.
I saw some dumb article or other suggesting he might end up with a Seiya Suzuki-like contract, which I find… unlikely. The Giants and Yankees seem to be named a lot too.
I’m not sure where he would play for the Giants or Yankees. Chapman, Eldridge, and Devers have his possible positions covered in SF and McMahon, Rice, and Stanton have it covered in NY. Not that McMahon should stand in the way of upgrading third base, and I guess the Giants could trade Eldridge…
Dodgers can decline Muncy’s option if they believe he can make it to the end of Freddie’s deal at 3B
I think Stearns might prefer him to Alonso, although probably only if he gets less than he will actually get, at which point he pivots to maybe Okamoto or probably that Lewin Diaz guy (he really likes the KBO)
Seems like Okamoto is actually a better match for the Padres (both profile and pursestrings) than Murakami.
Not that he’s any kind of respected source, but Jim Bowden predicted 6 years $160m for Murakami. That seems….. wildly irresponsible
That seems Jim Bowdenish. He also predicted that Jack Flaherty would decline his one year player option for $20 million to sign a two year deal worth $22 million.
That…actually sounds plausible with an opt out? Basically the same thing as before. I don’t think his case has changed much, and I don’t think he has changed his mind about his own situation either.
Not 100% sure but I read jdbolick comment as saying that Bowden is predicting Flaherty turns down 1yr at 20M but signs 2yrs at 22M total (11M/year), which seems very unlikely
Not $22 million in each of the two years. Bowden predicted that he would sign for $22 million total over the two years.
Okay that seems unlikely! If he is struggling to get a higher AAV he will definitely sign a one year deal. That’s what he has done before.
I think there are likely teams that think they can reduce the SO rate, he is an interesting comp to Kyle Schwarber who also runs a high SO rate. There was a three year period when it was hovering in the low 20s. One thing that popped this season despite the injuries was his power production returned to the level it was in 2022. He really needs to be moved to 1st long term but a team that believes in him will be willing to live with him at 3rd until their 1st base or dh position opens. If a team sees him as essentially Schwarber who is much younger and is a marginally better defender that’s an appealing package.
I don’t think he plays third base in the majors at all, which puts a lot of pressure on the bat. I do believe that he can improve his contact and strikeout rate, I’m just not sure if he can improve it enough.
1st base has been under performing in terms of production over the last few years. Only 16 1st basemen have a wrc+ above 100 it’s lacking the thump it used to have except for a few elite bats. He’d be best off at 1st no question and it seems like the league is moving away from poor defenders playing at least a position higher than they should. Red Sox and Phillies were the most guilty of this. Some of the rule changes have helped make individual defense more important.
Cool to read James Fegan’s work again! Big fan from The Athletic days!
I originally followed Fegan on bsky in hopes of getting prospect nuggets, but it’s been surprisingly pleasant to watch him chronicle the life and times of the Chicago White Sox.
He also has been back covering the White Sox as the beat reporter for Sox Machine.
It seems that the new order of things is for the best baseball players in Asia to come over to MLB as soon as they can. While it’s fun for us, I feel sorry for the Japanese, Korean, and Chinese fans. Their leagues are being turned into feeder/minor leagues for MLB.
I do think it cuts both ways, though – it’s viability as a proving ground should attract stronger Quad-A types.
The best NPB pitchers are absolutely coming over because there’s a long track record of success of NPB pitchers in MLB. Yamamoto was probably the best to come over in a while, but Sasaki, Senga, Imanaga, and Imai were / are also among the best.
The hitters have had less success because you don’t see the same sort of velocity in the NPB as you do in MLB. Seiya Suzuki has been a successful MLB hitter by any objective standard with a career wRC+ of 127, but he regularly posted a wRC+ of 175 or more in NPB. It’s the guys with a lot of power like Suzuki, Murakami, and (to a lesser extent) Okamoto who get a lot of attention. There are a lot of excellent hitters who are a lot like Yoshida, but not as good, and they put up huge lines in Japan but don’t get enough interest to make it worth their while to come to the US.
It typically takes a year for them to adjust and some fan bases let’s just say don’t want their new shiny signing to spend a year “not living up” to their deal. I’m a Red Sox fan and I would classify our fan base as being hostile to adjustment periods. NYY might be the worst but Boston is right being them in terms of being potentially toxic. That’s a tough environment for a player. Also they should only sign with teams that know what they are doing because the adjustments they need to make are real.
The biggest issue with Masataka Yoshida that was known when he signed was his fielding and that’s largely remained true, the Sox valued him as a average fielder but he’s really a DH and overvalued him. His roster fit when he signed was much different then it’s was over the last season. (Though the Sox were deep in their defense is optional phase lol). His first two years were actually fine with the bat and people were giving the Sox props for valuing the bat. Yoshida not recapturing that form in his return from the shoulder injury and subsequent surgery is a concern and will make it hard to move him, even if he had returned to form the contract was overvalued for a DH like him. If he was an average defender the his performance would be perfectly reasonable with the contract he has. But for a straight DH that could give corner OFs an occasional day off the contract should have been half of what it was.
Shoulder injuries can happen to any player and it’s just part of the risk of signing long term deals with anyone it’s not unique to Japanese players.
I think the idea was that Yoshida’s defense and offense would be helped by Fenway’s left field. I think that was probably correct (pre injury at least) but they’re paying him to hit in the 125 wRC+ area rather than the 110-115 range. The first one is comfortably a starting DH, the second one has to provide some actual defensive value to play.
Although my point wasn’t about his overall hitting line, rather that if his production takes this much of a hit coming over than I don’t have that much hope for players with a similar style who aren’t as good.
I agree that it’s a bummer for them but how new is it? How many superstars in the past 20-30 years have chosen to stay in Japan or Korea?
Tbf MiLB is turning into a feeder league for all these leagues
Eh, I could think more abt this
Yeah, MLB has been eliminating loads of MiLB teams and wants to use college as their minors, I think.
How much do you think the Dodgers will end up paying Murakami?
I don’t think the Dodgers will go for him. He’s a boom or bust project who will likely play 3B, 1B or DH, all spots they already have covered. More likely they’ll splash cash for outfielders.
If I had to guess, I think the Mets, Phillies, Mariners and Padres make the most sense. I think it’ll come down to if a team with enough payroll space has a development department that says “We can fix him!”. Otherwise It’s probably not worth it.
Nice analysis. Thank you.
I get that you can dream on the power but it’s just really hard to see a major leaguer in Murakami as a 1B/DH. Without being disrespectful to the competition level of the NPL, we’re talking about an inability to hit velocity that you’d see at high school showcases or NCAA DII.
I think Eric makes a strong case that if he doesn’t fix whatever happened to him he’s just not a Major League Baseball player.
Right now he’s probably about a 60% contact hitter in MLB, if you assume a mix of fastballs above 93 MPH, those below it, and secondaries. There is not a single MLB player with 600 PAs over the last five seasons combined with a contact rate that low. The only players I can find with of any sample size at all if we extend back to 2016 is some years of Joey Gallo, Jabari Blash, and post-rookie Keston Hiura.
He probably has to have a contact rate of 64% or higher to be a viable MLB player at all (the Chris Carter zone). That’s enough for the power to play, but not enough to be the starting 1B on a good playoff team.
Improvement from there will have big rewards. Players like Ohtani and Judge and Tatis have had monster years while in the 66% to 70% range. You can see how for guys with elite raw power how you go quickly from Quad-A to middle of the order hitter. That’s what teams are buying.
Interesting and it’s wild how much his contact rate has fallen.
Keep in mind that the average fastball velocity in Japan is 91.7 mph, so he hasn’t seen that many high velocity fastballs. Okamoto isn’t all that much better against them, and in both cases, I think lack of exposure affects those numbers. Mechanically, I don’t see much wrong with Murakami’s swing that would prevent him from making contact, as his bat speed is well above average.
I do wonder if these struggles against velocity are worth worrying about. I think I’m remembering correctly that Mastaka Yoshida had poor numbers against good fastballs in Japan, but has had above average numbers against fastballs all 3 years in MLB. That’s a sample size of one, of course, but I would love to see more data.
For hitters coming from Japan, their success against good velocity is often mentioned. I would love to see more data on this for context. How have other players with varying levels of success against good velocity in Japan fared when they’ve come to MLB?
I suspect Murakami ends up alot like Michael Busch: a 1B/DH with platoon splits that keep him from being like a popular teevee star. Could be a bargain since the conversation is already at supermegaduperultraster or bust
There’s a scenario in my head where the Cubs trade Busch for Logan Gilbert, sign Alonso since his market is already pretty tanked (its basically Mets, sleepers, and the Cubs have shown some opportunistic behavior in FA like Darvish, Swanson even), and sign Murakami as a corner LHH power bat behind Shaw and Alonso as well as DH
Add somewhere this post:
– power, patience, age, and a big jump in flyballs are all huge positives coming over
– another potentially huge advantage is a (edit) flyball approach (/edit) LHH with huge power and any type of “versatility” on defense is already viable for any bench in the league with an obvious matchup against RHP
– Somewhat like a LHH Torkelson? An org can sign him as a “3B” but really once under contract he has no say if he wants playing time to earn a second contract in the league.
– Full time starters are already less of a thing in this more NFL version of MLB, probably all negotiating are as aware of The Data. Maybe his mgmt team has a different perspective on how to navigate the league? Keep in mind Ohtani had a 26 % K rate way back in the ancient times of 2016 playing NPB ball, didn’t become a full time hitter until his 4th year
Seems in play…what would the corporate nonsense lingo be…an agile(?)…org can find 300-400 PAs + tons of time with coaches and trainers over the next couple years to end up with a cheap power starting 1B/DH on the back end…I’d also throw out that the current format with 400 playoff slots for 12 teams, more balanced shedduels, more reliance on non-starters really blurs that rebuilding or not binary everyone’s been working with, and many of the best FAs will be considered “projects” or “risky” (for instance the popular again RP -> SP track)…lotta words here
BTW for shiggles this is a roster I imagine is possible *entering* 2026…Excuse that I assume a couple players are available via trade:
DH: Suzuki, Murakami, Caissie, Alonso
C: Kelly, Tyler Heineman, JC Escarra
1B: Alonso, Murakami
2B: Hoerner, Trey Sweeney
SS: Swanson, Sweeney
3B: Shaw, Murakami
LF: Happ, Lane Thomas, Caissie
CF: Crow-Armstrong, Thomas, Caissie
RF: Caissie, Suzuki, Thomas
SP: Logan Gilbert*, MacKenzie Gore**, Horton, Wicks, Taillon
RP: Edwin Diaz, Jose Alvarado, Devin Williams/Camilo Doval, Palencia, B. Brown, Austin Gomber (2026 Thielbar but cheaper), pick ‘em
* straightup for Busch?
**for Ballesteros, K. Alcantara, Jon Long, J. Rojas, K. Kepley
Some minor leaguers I’m paying attn to in this scenario: J. Wiggins, Ethan Hearn, Juan Cabada, Luke Little, Carter Trice, Pedro Ramirez, BJ Murray, Josiah Hartshorn