Let Michael Conforto Play
Mets fans know the dilemma well. Despite already possessing probably the club’s second-best bat after Yoenis Cespedes, Michael Conforto might have a tenuous grasp on a roster spot.
Conforto isn’t a natural center fielder. Juan Lagares is a natural center fielder and is also nearing a return from a rehab stint to serve as the club’s fourth outfielder, a role which Conforto is currently filling.
Conforto is a more natural fit at a corner-outfield spot, but Cespedes has a solid grasp of left field and the Mets owe Curtis Granderson and Jay Bruce $15 million and $13 million, respectively, this year. Granderson and Bruce are atop the depth chart at center and right field.
Conforto is well aware of his situation. He’s well aware he has minor-league options remaining and a relatively paltry salary. Said the 24-year-old to Newsday earlier this week: “My situation is a day-to-day thing.”
Despite doing this on Wednesday night…
Michael Conforto got some extension on that home run. He crushed it a projected 422 feet, off the bat at 108.1 mph. #Mets pic.twitter.com/ElRj8AlVUX
— Anthony DiComo (@AnthonyDiComo) April 13, 2017
Regardless of the quality of contact he’s produced, his pedigree as a first-round pick, and the intriguing track record, Conforto isn’t a lock to stick in the lineup regularly or on the 25-man roster at all.
There’s the old adage that if you can hit they will find a place for you in the field. Will the Mets?
This is a player who posted a 133 wRC+ of as a rookie in 2015 over 194 plate appearances, when Conforto’s average exit velocity on fly balls and line drives was 96.1 mph, ranking him 22nd among hitters with at least 100 batted-ball events (just behind Cespedes). After an excellent start to 2016, a wrist issue and inconsistent playing time contributed to a lackluster sophomore campaign.
Still, despite 2016, Conforto was projected by ZiPS to be the Mets’ second-best position player in 2017. From our ZiPS post back in February:
Only four Mets field players recorded a WAR figure of 2.0 or greater in 2016. According to Dan Szymborski’s computer, six different Mets might be expected to reach that mark in 2017. Yoenis Cespedes (596 PA, 4.1 zWAR) receives the club’s top projection by a full win — and three of the club’s top-four forecasts overall belong to outfielders. One of those additional outfielders is Curtis Granderson (538, 2.3). The other isn’t presumptive right-field starter Jay Bruce (583, 1.2) but rather Michael Conforto (558, 3.0). Conforto, in other words, appears to be a markedly superior option.
And all Conforto has done this spring is hit like Kyle Schwarber Lite. He’s making life difficult on Mets officials tasked with setting the roster and lineup card.
Last year, Eno Sarris wrote about the development of power and how Conforto’s best contact hadn’t been ideal. Well, Conforto is making strides there early this spring. His home run on Sunday left his bat at 108 mph and landed 430 feet away in right-center field.
Conforto can hit. He might be the Mets’ second-best hitter and yet the Mets continue to struggle to find a place for his bat, giving him only two starts so far this season.
The Mets might have initially regretted picking up Bruce’s option, insurance in case Cespedes signed elsewhere this offseason. But Bruce has been productive to date this year, and might be benefiting from an attempt to launch more balls in the air. Bruce has hit four home runs in the season’s first week and is slashing .273/.385/.667 — in part, fueled by a 0.40 GB/FB ratio.
So what to do with Conforto?
A modest proposal: platoon Conforto with Lagares in center (which is how the Mets began last season), hope for the best defensively, and let him hit.
For starters, outfield defense is a bit less important behind the Mets, whose pitching staff finished ninth in strikeouts in baseball a season ago and ninth in ground-ball rate (46.5%). The Mets’ power rotation is again expected to miss many a bat and produce a better-than-average ground-ball rate.
But Conforto might actually be a superior defensive option to Granderson in center right now. In limited defensive work in center field, covering 48 innings, Conforto has been worth 1 defensive run save (DRS). In 952 innings in left, he’s been posted 9 DRS, exceeding expectations of his defense. Granderson, meanwhile, has declined as a defender and is already rated as being worth -2 DRS this season in center. In his last full season in center, in New York in 2012, Granderson was worth -7 DRS.
Conforto is the better offensive option going forward.
As for Lagares, he’s an excellent defensive center fielder, having tallied 62 DRS from 2013 to -16, but he’s posted well below-average offensive seasons in back-to-back years, including a 79 wRC+ mark in 2015 and an 84 wRC+ last season. However, for his career, Lagares has a wRC+ of 105 versus lefties versus a 76 mark against righties. Given what we know about platoon splits, that might actually be a fair representation of his true talent. There’s a place for Lagares’ glove as a defensive replacement, or perhaps with a fly-ball pitcher on the mound. And Lagares’ right-handed bat could serve as a platoon partner for Conforto who has struggled to hit lefties (.129 average in 62 at-bats) early in his big-league career.
Every win matters for the Mets in what figures to be a competitive NL East. While their lineup is off to a productive start, it would be more productive, more often, with their second-most-capable hitter in the lineup.
We’ve always heard that if you can hit a team will find a place for you. For much of this spring it seemed the Mets were thinking that place was Triple-A for Conforto, but perhaps Conforto’s strong spring and torrid start to open the season in limited chances could force some more creative thinking.
The sooner they find a way to make a consistent lineup home for Conforto, the better off they will be.
A Cleveland native, FanGraphs writer Travis Sawchik is the author of the New York Times bestselling book, Big Data Baseball. He also contributes to The Athletic Cleveland, and has written for the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, among other outlets. Follow him on Twitter @Travis_Sawchik.
Here’s hoping the Mets don’t let the sunk-cost fallacy prevent them from playing one of their best position players and developing a young player who could be a perennial all star. I don’t like platooning him either, because that means you are taking away developmental ABs against LHPs.
(1) Trade Jay Bruce
(2) Let Conforto split time between the outfield and first base so that you keep his bat in the lineup.
(3) Sit Bruce.
(4) Sit Granderson.
(5) Some combination of the above.
Conforto has a good 13 PA (entirely against RHP, btw), and suddenly he deserves full playing time on a crowded, contending team? This is the Everyone Loves the 24-year-old on the Bench syndrome. #freewilymopena
Actually, Travis explicitly states:
“A modest proposal: platoon Conforto with Lagares in center…”
More like, “the guy blocking Conforto has a mediocre 5000+ career PA, and suddenly he deserves full playing time on a crowded, contending team just because he is making money that will be paid to him whether he plays or not?”
with a good spring, it seems conforto has adjusted or healed from whatever ailed him in may and june last year.
i think there was a case that many leading the conforto-starts-everyday charge did so for less-than-precise reasons but the evidence is building that the kid is ready and he’s showing it in his limited at bats.
He had a good spring and a good april last year too. He has proved nothing yet.
no. but with a very good AAA stint, a very good september, a very good spring and now a nice couple of starts early this season, there’s just more evidence that he’s either healed from a wrist injury or has adjusted to whatever was causing problems in may and june so more people are coming around on the argument.
unfair to say it’s just “start the 24 year old everyday” crowd.
Despite all the downvotes, you are 100% correct here. A lot of bullshit based on a callup third of a season, one good month, and a couple good springs. He had a great spring last year. And a great April. Then what? He hit under the Mendoza line and fell apart completely. Where is the proof that he won’t do that again? The mets have 3 good major league outfielders. That is who should start most nights.
“Then what?”
either his injured wrist caused problems in his swing or pitchers figured something out, or both.
I think it’s important to keep in mind that Conforto did report his wrist was bothering him in mid-June, and an MRI revealed sprained cartilage for which he received a cortisone shot. It wouldn’t really be all that much of a leap to think that he actually hurt it in early May, considering that is right around the time his average exit velocity suddenly tanked from ~95mph in April to ~91mph for the year.
Or maybe it was just a so-called sophomore slump, we don’t really have that proof you seek one way or the other what caused his slide last year. We do however have some evidence right now that what he did between his call-up in July 2015 through April 2016 was no fluke.
If this really is Michael Conforto as a player then sitting him on the bench is a complete waste, because this version looks like one of the better hitters in the NL.
I’m sorry, did you just seriously ask for “proof” of what a player’s future performance will be?
Have you….watched Jay Bruce play defense? I don’t need a defensive stat to tell me he’s cost the team already – he’s already misplayed two doubles into triples and simply hasn’t gotten to some balls. He’s looked like a mess out there. He’s been hitting out of his mind, which is why I’m okay with him playing for now, but there are three seasons worth of replacement level baseball from Bruce that tell me the Mets are lucky to be gettin this from him right now.
Bruce used to be a legitimately good player. He might’ve found something, but more likely he’ll return to being mediocre. Conforto deserves a chance to play and is a good Major League outfielder. Very likely better than Bruce or Granderson at this point.
Why on Earth would we even consider benching Bruce right now? He’s been our best hitter so far.
a voice of reason
Perhaps because he hasn’t cracked 1 WAR since 2013, has only even been a league average hitter once since then, and projects as a league average hitter with poor defense in a position low on the defensive spectrum?
I’m actually not in favor of outright benching Bruce until he cools down, but Conforto is, by ALL data we have available, a better hitter and fielder, and should play.
“So far” includes nine baseball games. Jay Bruce has played 1,270 other baseball games.
Now is not the time to have Conforto play against lefties. Not when you have three outfielders on the roster (Cespedes, Lagares, and Bruce) who hit lefties fairly well.
Bruce has a career 90 wRC+ against lefties. The last 3 seasons, 51, 78, and 77. Even this year in his hot start it’s 42. He does not hit lefties and provides below replacement value in the field and at the plate when starting against them.
Would love to see Bruce going elsewhere in exchange for pretty much any value at all — that’s obviously the optimal solution to the log-jam from the Mets’ perspective — but I’ve got to say I think Granderson is the likelier trade candidate at this point.
Problem is they’d basically have to give him away. Even if you decide to bench Grandy or Bruce, or just equally share time between they and Conforto, having that extra depth in case of injury is probably better than the AA reliever they’d get.
Personally I’d make sure Conforto plays 75% of the time or more, and you can split the other 125% between Granderson, Bruce, and Lagares (vs LHP only).
If there’s 300% available total, Cespedes will need some off days, so there’s a little bit more available there.
My ideal percentage breakdown for PA would be 95% Cespedes in LF, 5% Conforto, 65% Grandy in CF, 20% Lagares, 15% Conforto, 60% Bruce in RF, 40% Conforto, 85% Duda at 1B, 15% Bruce, with Conforto DHing when necessary , Flores sharing third with Reyes in like a 60/40 split, Reyes getting some time backing up Cabrera & Rivera backing up Walker. But it’s a good problem to have too many players you think are productive. Hopefully it’ll work itself out.
In a purely rational world I’d agree with this — why not just keep Bruce around as a bench bat, what does it hurt? — but it looks to me like as long as they have Bruce around, they’re going to overuse him.
Trade Conforto to the White Sox for Nate Jones and Todd Frazier. Sox will cover Frazier’s salary. Puts the Mets in a better spot to win the World Series.
For what it’s worth Conforto has a 0.178 BABIP against LHP in his career so far, so maybe with a few more ABs we could see that number creep up
Cespedes, Bruce, and Granderson are all on the wrong side of 30… Odds are at least one of them are going to sustain an injury at some point this season. You can’t really move Granderson or Bruce’s contracts and you definitely don’t want to trade Conforto. I say play the season out, because having too much depth is never a bad thing… Although the defensive alignment can be awkward at times.
I’d include Duda in there as well. I hate to hope for injuries, but I have to say that as a Conforto owner, I kind of am. How about Bruce to LF for either Giants or Angels? That would seemingly be an upgrade that either team could afford and wouldn’t cost prospects.
That this is even a discussion is insane. And 95% of it is Terry Collins’ fault.
Yeah, what was Terry thinking when he signed Granderson and Cespedes and traded for Bruce. Terry was so stupid to make the decision.
If I’m not mistaken, Terry Collins is the Manager of the Mets and not a part of the Mets front office so he didn’t actually sign or trade for any of the players you listed.
whoooosh
It is insane that people keep putting prospect potential over major league track records, season after season. The kid is blocked by 3 major league outfielders. One of them will go down, and he will get his moment. Then we’ll see what he’s got. So far he’s proved nothing new. (he had a great april last year, then what?)
Please characterize Jay Bruce’s major league track record, using facts and numbers.
Lenny smells.
I concur
I wonder how heavily they have concsidered moving one of the OF to 1B. of course Duda has hit well so far so they have to give him a shot first.
Bruce got a little bit of time at 1B this spring, but apparently was not comfortable there.
Earlier in the off-season the Mets discussed getting Conforto some time there (which many Mets fans were hoping for), but as Spring rolled on they instead opted to get him more playing time in CF. It sort of makes sense when you think about what kinds of offensive gains Conforto may stand to supply in CF over Grandy/Lagares vs over at 1B over Duda/Flores.
why? there’s duda vs. righties and flores vs. lefties. only bat in the OF good enough to put those guys on the bench is cespedes…
Too bad he can’t play 3B.
This would really solve so many problems.
What does the author suggest the Mets do? Obviously you’re not going to bench Bruce with the way that he’s hitting. I guess benching Granderson could make sense. Personally I think the smart thing to do would be to have Granderson and Conforto split time in center and also give Conforto occasional starts in RF for Bruce and LF for Cespedes.
“Obviously you’re not going to bench Bruce with the way that he’s hitting.” And yet, obviously, that’s exactly what they should do
For all the people complaining that Conforto is just “potential” and has largely been a bust to date, please note that, even with his struggles last year, Conforto has had about a full season’s big league plate appearances (555 PAs total) and has, in that time, put up a wRC+ of 113 and a WAR of 3.7 (he has graded out as a plus defender and runner, which helps his WAR total). Of course, this is almost exclusively in PAs vs. righties, but he’s already had a meaningful amount of big league success as a young player. By the numbers, he very much deserves to be a starter on this team.
Of course, how the Mets get him more playing time is a difficult thing to figure. The Mets have four or even five starting quality outfielders, and although I would like to see what the author proposes (Conforto/Lagares platoon in center), at least until/unless Bruce stops hitting, it seems a bit awkward to bench Granderson. Grandy has played almost every day the last several years while other Mets have struggled w injury, done everything the team has asked of him, been worth on average 3 fWAR/year the last three seasons, and been a leader both on the field and in the clubhouse of a playoff team. I don’t pretend to know how one measures clubhouse chemistry, but I would worry about benching such a popular and integral part of the team. Before the season, I hoped for the Mets to find a trade partner for Bruce, who was always a weird fit on this team and who has been the least productive player between the Mets outfield options for the last 3 years on average, but he’s hit very well this young season so he’s not likely to sit, at least not at the moment.
Some sort of outfield merry-go-round seems the most likely strategy at the moment, although because I’m a Mets fan I suspect that injury is what will decide the starting lineup for the most part going forward.
Or just teach him first and bench Duda.
why on earth
You do know that a healthy Lucas Duda is a really valuable player, right?
To some extent, I do think it’s worthwhile for them to see what they have in Bruce. There are several players across the league that have taken a fly-ball approach, and turned into better hitters. Bruce came into spring training and mentioned that new approach, and so far it’s panned out.
Coming into this season, he hit almost as many ground balls as fly balls in his career (and he was pretty consistent year after year). He hit half as many line drives and ground balls.
So far this year he’s hit 8 ground balls, 20 fly balls, and 7 line drives. I typically look at this type of thing as a fluky week, but when it happens right after a player says he’s going to do this, then it should take a little more notice. Aside from his ’14/’15 seasons with his knee issue, he was consistently running a wRC+ around 120. With good health and a new approach, why not see if he can meet or surpass that? At the very least, it would make it a lot easier to trade him.
As for defense, I have no idea what to think about his abilities. From what I’ve seen, it looks like he doesn’t take the best routes. But DRS has liked him for most of his career. DRS didn’t like him during the injured 2014 season (-6 DRS), and thought he was dreadful with the Reds last year (-11 DRS in 4 months). But he was average to very good in RF in every other part of his career, including +3 DRS in his time with the Mets. I’m blacked out of Reds games so I didn’t see a single inning last year – but I’m curious what led to such a poor rating that was out of line with the rest of his career. Did he suddenly get much worse in the field (only to get better with the Mets), or was it a fluky sample?
I agree that you have to keep Bruce in there for the foreseeable future for exactly the reason you outline. Before the season started he specifically mentioned trying to get the ball in the air more and avoid ‘the death to LHB that is the ground ball’, and he’s done exactly that so far. It’s an especially good move for a guy that consistently runs a 15~20% HR/FB rate, it could easily lead to 35-40 HR. He’s also done this sporting a 13.0 BB% and 8.7 K% for the young season.
Regarding his defense, I only have a bit of eye-test to go off of from his time with the Mets. He doesn’t look good out there, but I’ve definitely seen worse. His routes and jumps are alright, his foot speed is bad, his glove is solid once he reaches the ball. His arm has been very inconsistent though, I’ve seen some rainbows to the cut-off man, but a few pegs at home plate as well (like his strike to get Ellis at home last night).
IMO, the easiest path to playing time for Conforto might be to sit Jose Reyes, or at least play Reyes sparingly. Let Flores play full-time at third with Reyes spelling Cabrera and Flores, and getting pinch hit PA.
They have 152 games left.
If Flores plays, say, 130 at 3B, Duda 130 at 1B, Cabrera and Walker 135-140 each at SS/2B, that leaves playing time for Reyes across the infield, and TJ Rivera backing up Walker.
Bruce could get the 22 starts at 1B Duda doesn’t take, opening up 22 games for Conforto there. If Bruce needs time off, which he will, there are 10 games opened up right there. Now he’s at 32. If he DHs in all the AL parks, that’s another 10. 42 games. 10 games each playing for Cespedes and Grandy gives him 62 or so starts. He’ll be entering enough as a PH or double-switch man that he could get 300-400 PA total and then become the full-time RF after the season. He needs AB though, and he’s one of their best options.
It’s a good issue to have, but I wish they’d find a way to play him more consistently. A Bruce trade or Granderson being benched if his struggles persist seems the likeliest option, but I like Granderson a lot so I want him to play too, and Bruce has hit well in this very limited opening week and a half.