Let’s Watch Adam Eaton Save 12 Runs
Bryce Harper may have slumped recently, but that doesn’t mean he hasn’t had a fantastic start to the season. He’s two homers shy of the league lead, and both the league leaders above him play half their games in Colorado. He simultaneously owns one of baseball’s best walk rates and one of baseball’s best isolated-slugging percentages. Bryce Harper is the man. Numbers weren’t necessary to make this point. All in all, Harper’s offensive performance to date has been worth nine runs above average.
Adam Eaton‘s been better. Not with the bat — Eaton’s just putting up his typical 117 wRC+ again. No, Eaton’s been better than Harper’s bat with his glove. Using Ultimate Zone Rating, our default defensive metric here on the site, Eaton’s glove has been worth a league-leading 9.6 runs above average. Use Defensive Runs Saved, where Eaton is running laps around the league with 12 runs saved, and it gets even better — Eaton’s defensive performance becomes equivalent to Mike Trout’s season at the plate.
So this funny thing is going on with Adam Eaton in right field — a position he’s playing on an everyday schedule for the first time, having moved over from center field to accommodate Austin Jackson — and, especially considering Eaton’s outfield defense has been something of an enigma in the past, this development is something that’s begging to be explored.
Adam Eaton’s made 10 noteworthy plays this season, which, combined with all the other routine ones, have already been worth 12 Defensive Runs Saved. That’s more than Josh Donaldson had all of last year. Eaton’s number might not (probably won’t?) stay that high all year, but it’s that high right now. Let’s watch Adam Eaton save 12 runs.
Play No. 1
According to Inside Edge (whose fielding data will be used throughout the entirety of this post), this was Eaton’s first opportunity on a non-routine play, occurring back on April 13. It’s a sinking liner in the gap, a tough play, and while Eaton’s route doesn’t look ideal — first breaking back and then correcting course on the fly — he ends up in a fine position to make the sliding catch.
Play No. 2
Good first step. Fine route. Made the catch. A challenging play, but not overly difficult. Inside Edge had this in the 60-90% bucket. A play that should be made more often than not.
Play No. 3
Eaton’s range and error prevention have both been pluses, but the arm is arguably what’s stuck out most. His five kills lead all outfielders, and his three runs saved with the arm are tops among right fielders, and trail only Leonys Martin when you include the rest. What stands out on this play is how close Eaton is to the plate when he fields the ball. Seven of his nine plus plays in the field have come on balls marked “shallow” by Baseball Info Solutions, so it stands to reason that Eaton’s shallow positioning is to thank for being able to make this play. That, and a good throw.
Play No. 4
You didn’t think we were going to get through this without something wacky going on, did you? One of Adam Eaton’s five outfield kills happened because Ian Desmond doesn’t know where first base is, or when he should stay on it.
Play No. 5
The most impressive thing about this play might be the masterful camera work. Good on you, CSN Chicago, for showing us the throw! We get a helpful cut to the runner before Eaton starts his throw, and then get to witness a superb heave in its entirety, knowing that Edwin Encarnacion is chugging toward third base all along. Well done, team. Well done, Adam Eaton, too, because this throw is beautiful. Eaton was one of 15 outfielders who had a throw clocked north of 100 mph by Statcast last year. The arm strength is legit.
Play No. 6
From later in the same game, another 60-90% play. Really more about not screwing up than making a great play. Didn’t screw it up!
Play No. 7
The Blue Jays have probably had enough of Adam Eaton. Now they know what it feels like when opposing teams hit balls toward Kevin Pillar.
Play No. 8
Joey Rickard blew it. Forgot how many outs there were, and Eaton gets another outfield kill gifted to him. This is why defensive outliers are defensive outliers, and why it can take a while for these things to even themselves out.
Play No. 9
Which isn’t to say Adam Eaton isn’t still making great throws! We’ve already seen two, and here’s another one right here! Perhaps a bit of an aggressive send, but Eaton still puts it on the money to get Rickard at the plate. Rickard wanted to get one back. It’ll have to wait another day.
Play No. 10
Was that a dunk?
* * *
So that’s how Adam Eaton’s already saved 12 runs this year. Two plus plays with the glove (Nos. 7 and 10), three impressive kills (Nos. 3, 5, and 9), two additional kills handed to him by poor base-running (Nos. 4 and 8) and three harder-than-routine-but-still-expected-to-be-caught catches (Nos. 1, 2, and 6).
That’s not the entire story, though. Eaton also has 73 putouts without an error, and base-runners have only taken eight extra bases in 24 opportunities. In other words, in addition to his league-leading five kills, base-runners have respected his arm, too, which is another positive for his defensive ratings.
But those two numbers — 73 and 24 — reveal something else about Eaton’s defensive season: he’s had more opportunities than anyone else. His 73 putouts lead all right fielders, with a whopping 10-putout lead over second place. He’s had 48 balls hit to his zone — second-most in baseball. His 24 base-runner advancement opportunities rank sixth. All fielding opportunities are not created equally, and Eaton’s been fortunate in how many he’s received. He deserves credit for making all the plays that have been thrown at him, of course, but his season might look a bit different if White Sox pitchers hadn’t induced so many line drives to right field this season.
Eaton has graded out as something like a -5 run defender per season in center field throughout his career, and when we consider that center field is roughly 10 runs more difficult than right field, we should have expected Eaton to be a plus right fielder. The arm appears legitimate, and if Eaton likes to play shallow, perhaps that’s an endeavor better suited for right field, where a ball over the head doesn’t hurt quite as bad as it would in center. Eaton’s also had the good fortune of getting more action in right field than anyone else, which certainly hasn’t hurt his numbers, because he’s made all the plays. Get a ton of balls hit to you, and don’t screw anything up. That’s how Adam Eaton’s already saved 12 runs.
August used to cover the Indians for MLB and ohio.com, but now he's here and thinks writing these in the third person is weird. So you can reach me on Twitter @AugustFG_ or e-mail at august.fagerstrom@fangraphs.com.
I literally stopped reading after “and both the league leaders above him play half their games at Coors Field.”
Which is a shame because this article isn’t about he Rockies or Bryce Harper, and because I usually really enjoy August’s writing. I just can’t read an article that starts off by discrediting the achievements of Trevor and Nolan. Especially after a night when they both went deep in AT&T.
I literally stopped reading after “I literally stopped reading”.
I stopped reading after “the two leaders of the League of his half of their games played at Coors field.”
It is a pity, because this article is not about Brice Harper mountains or because normally, I’m really happy when Augustus wrote. I can not read the article to discredit the achievements and Trevor Nolan. Especially after a night when they were both deep in AT & T.
Story: 4HR at Coors, 7HR away
Arenado: 6HR at Coors, 6HR away
Maybe he should’ve written, “both the league leaders above him play half their games away from Coors Field.”
Certainly rolls of the tongue better than “both league leaders above him play most of their divisional road games at extreme pitcher parks in California.”
They have 2 home runs combined between them at those “extreme pitcher parks in California” – of their combined 23 home runs, 18 were hit in Colorado or Arizona which are both extreme home run parks.
Arizona is particularly an extreme hitters park this year for their opponents, given how awful their starting rotation has been so far.
They still have an edge playing at Coors. They might’ve hit 2 fewer if they played at a different park. Or maybe Harper would’ve hit 4 more if he played at Coors.
How about
Trevor Story: 4HR at Coors, 5 HR in Arizona (the park with by far the highest HR factor in baseball), and 1 HR at Cincinnati (the park ranked #7)
So those “extreme pitchers parks”? Yeah, Story has 1 (ONE) home run in any of them.
Now Nolan Arenado… He’s hit 9 of his 12 home runs at either Coors or Arizona, so he has 2 home runs in Chicago and 1 in San Francisco.
Happy now?
None of those plays looked overly impressive to me. His defensive stats seem to be a combination of having a lot of opportunities to make slightly harder than routine plays and bad baserunning.
Don’t forget that it’s also 1 month of sample size. I know that SSS is a boring argument, but the Signal/Noise ratio of these shaky-at-best defensive metrics need to be taken with a whole shaker full of salt this early on.
Play 5 looks very impressive to me. He had to run a long way just to get to that ball and make a perfect throw afterwards. Sure it was Encarnacion running, but typically a bloop down the right field line like that gets a guy from first to third every time.
“two additional kills handed to him by poor base-running”
“he’s had more opportunities than anyone else”
The article clearly addresses both of these points. The entire article was really about looking into where the huge number was coming from, not claiming that Adam Eaton is suddenly making countless amazing plays…
I am not criticizing the article. I just thought that his best plays would be more impressive. He has some very good throws but I think the Encarnacion play was a result of poor baserunning. It looks like Encarnacion got a terrible jump on the play.
5/7/10 look pretty solid to me, the rest are meh.
Jay Bruce and Mark Trumbo make zero of those plays!
You’re right… the camera work on #5 was AWESOME.
camera work on #9 was terrible
A lot of these look more impressive just because he’s so small. A tall guy running same routes and same speed would have a much easier time, but he makes them anyway.
On those 60-90% plays, that’s 60% for short guys and 90% for tall guys. 😛 Kudos to him.
Which completely dismisses the quality of his arm. And also assumes that all outfielders have Mike Trout’s combination of size and speed.
Wait….
Do people actually call OF Assists “Kills”?
Where did this come from? This isn’t volleyball.
Kills are the terminology used by Baseball Info Solutions for plays where an outfielder directly throws out a runner without a relay.
An outfield assist is something entirely different from a kill, because an outfield assist can include relays and can also produce outs in *spite* of the outfielder who threw the ball, rather than due in part to the outfielder who threw the ball.
To wit: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/khris-davis-has-four-assists/
Remember that poll that asked readers if they were hitting/pitching/defense nerds?
I’m so glad I’m a defense nerd.
There’s another really good play he made on Adam Jones in last weekend’s series where Jones hit a ball into the corner that is a dead certain double basically every time, except he hit it hard, Eaton got there very quickly (range) and played the bounce off the side wall absolutely perfectly (read) and immediately fired the ball back in (arm) and held Jones to a single. And Jones looked like he’d have been out had he gone for it. Though it was only a base saved rather than turning a baserunner into an out, it was a good display of what Eaton is bringing to the table in right.
What I was wondering was if the defensive outfield stats get bumped up/down the same way as pitchers. Based on the Coors Field effect, hitters stats are discounted and pitchers stats are a premium, so why not outfield defense? Coors Field is huge.
My understanding is that UZR is park adjusted, but I was not sure if others were.
The huge outfield makes it easier to make plays, not harder, because there are more balls in play. Same effect applies to Kauffman.
What makes Coors harder though is (again) the altitude/air. Since the ball travels farther off the bat you have to triple whammy of 1) more balls leaving play, 2) more variable batted ball distance, and 3) more difficult (longer) throws.
I may not be understanding your point in the first sentence, because it seems counter-intuitive to me. Counting stats like DRS and WAR would be affected by number of balls in play and thus number of Runs saved/lost. The adjusted stats should not be impacted by how often, but instead attempt to measure the effectiveness.
Actually the enormous outfield at Coors results in a ton of hits dropping in. In fact at this point it has much more effect than the altitude.
I enjoyed this. A lot more pleasant than “Let’s Watch Pablo Sandoval Eatin 12 Buns”
As a Jays fan, i hated Eaton that series!
Those throws are all on the money. I was wondering the other day if the sox will move eaton back to center next year or if they realize to just sign a plus defensive centerfielder and get offense elsewhere.
I had just noticed Eaton’s incredible defensive start last night, and was wondering when someone at FG would write about him. He’s leading all three major sites–FG, BBRef, and BBPro–in defensive value/runs saved, which, given the differences in metrics used (particularly BBPro)is quite rare. Plus he’s doing it in spite of his negative positional value (i.e., he’s leading even in the metrics that include positional adjustment).
His 1.4 dWAR at BBRef is a pace for > 8 WAR for the season, which means he could be a replacement level hitter (wRC+ or OPS+ about 75-80) and still be an MVP candidate. The BBRef record for dWAR in a season is 5.4 WAR.
But of course it’s a very small sample size. The general rule for OF that I’ve heard is that it takes about three full seasons’ worth of defensive stats to get as stable a figure as one season for offensive stats. So we might look at Eaton like an average hitter who’s batting .450 with 5 HR in his first ten games of the season.
I never really understood what a frozen rope had to do with throwing a baseball until I watched Play number 5, but now I kind of understand.
perhaps the lack of spectacular plays reflects how the current RFs are poor defensive players… this would boost some of Eaton’s numbers, correct? I’m not intimate with how defensive value is calculated.
and “base-runners have only taken eight extra bases in 24 opportunities” how does that compare to other RF and OFs?
“Didn’t screw it up!” was high praise for a White Sox fielder the last couple of years.
On a serious note, odd that a team that fielded four left handed starters (until John Danks got DFA’d) including the two best left handed starters in the AL by WAR so far would have a RF that has the most chances of any RF in baseball. I guess Quintana, Sale and Rodon generate some really weak, late contact. Which plays into how shallow Eaton plays.
Those guys see a of of right-handed batters and hit the outer corner a lot at 92-94. Keeps Brett and Adam really busy on the right side.
My understanding is that most balls hit in the air go to the opposite field as opposed to the pull field.
He did it again the absolute madman
Yeah, he made another great play last night.
Anyone saying these aren’t “impressive plays” has never played outfield at a high enough level. It’s incredible difficult to get a great jump, take a great route, and time your lunge/leap perfectly. Not only that, but his throws have been about as accurate as humanly possible – with the exception being the double up throw.
These are all impressive plays. Had he not made them, no one would be asking why the play wasn’t made.
Listening to the Twins broadcast of Berrios’ last start, I heard Jack Morris say about Statcast and OF route efficiency(I’m paraphrasing here): “I don’t care how efficient their route was: I just want them to catch the ball.” Which is kinda like saying about NASA engineers: “I don’t care about how good they are at complex math, I just want them to put men on the moon.”
Typical DRS/UZR article.
“Instead of actually breaking down how DRS/UZR has calculated these totals, lets run a clinic in confirmation bias with these GIFs! Look! Look at how well these cherry picked GIFs prove my point!”
Why are you so salty? The article clearly states that Eaton not only has received more chances than anyone else, but he’s also capitalized on them. August then picked out 10 videos that showed why Eaton has racked up so much DRS, including two that were gifts due to baserunning mistakes, which he also acknowledged were gifts for Eaton. I don’t get why you have such a pessimistic view on this article.
BenRevereSaidSteroids:
May 6, 2016 at 09:24
Member DRS / UER typical.
“No other DRS / UER calculated fund, which allows you to run a clinic in a room with GIF! Look! See how cherry picked GIF show!”
George Springer is the best defensive right fielder in baseball
Oh. I thought this said “Lets Watch Adam Eaton Save 12 Nuns.”
Play number 10 really just looks like a routine fly ball made difficult because he was playing so shallow. Play 2 and 6 also look pretty routine (I mean they are 60-90 plays) so it seems odd that he got DRS for each of them.
Playing shallow helps him make plays like #3. A player like Jose Bautista can’t play that shallow because he couldn’t get back and he would give up too many extra base hits. Outfield defense is all about trade offs.
As for the 60-90 plays, it’s sort of like a free throw. The average player is expected to make 60-90% of free throws, but it’s definitely a good thing to go 3-3 from the FT line.