LoMo Returns, Rays Continue Opportunistic Offseason

The Rays are one of the under-the-radar teams that the FanGraphs and PECOTA projection systems forecast to be in the AL Wild Card mix.

As Jeff wrote last month following the Logan Forsythe-for-Jose De Leon deal, the Rays have continued to add years of control and surplus value this offseason. While the Rays do not necessarily need pieces like Mallex Smith and De Leon for 2017, they have moved some of today for more of tomorrow. It’s generally a good practice for a small-market club that must constantly balance the present with the future. I wrote last month that the Rays would be wise to remain opportunistic and fill their second-base void internally and take advantage of the overcorrection against bat-only players that Dave Cameron identified earlier this offseason.

The market has long overpaid one-dimensional power hitters. This, though, feels like more than just a simple market correction. When perfectly useful players on one year deals for $7 million can’t get moved for even a non-prospect, it feels like the pendulum has swung too far the other way. It’s time to jump on this, contenders; these bargains won’t last forever.

And the Rays responded this week by signing one of the remaining such bats in Logan Morrison, who was, of course, with the club last season. There was such a supply of these bat-only, or bat-mostly, players that it caused Eno Sarris to wonder if they would all even find homes this offseason, so we’re happy to report Morrison, Chris Carter and Mike Napoli have all indeed found teams willing to employ them this week.

With their collection of transactions to date this offseason, the Rays have added a quality controllable arm, an interesting outfielder, while losing little, if any, production at second, first and in the rotation. The Rays are quietly one of the offseason’s winners.

It’s expected that Brad Miller will move from first to second base and take on the lion’s share of work there, though there are other internal options like Nick Franklin (against righties), Tim Beckham and perhaps in June, Willy Adames.

FanGraphs projects Forsythe to produce 2 WAR in 574 plate appearances at second base for the Dodgers and Miller to account for 1.8 WAR in in 410 plate appearances at second. So if you believe the forecasts, the Rays might actually have improved at second base because of the trade. I’m not sure I totally buy that — Miller is something of an unknown defensively there and Forsythe is a nice player — but the Rays had depth from which to fill the position.

With Miller expected to move to second, the bigger question then becomes how well Morrison performs at first base. Miller was also projected to produce two wins at first this coming season. Napoli, Carter and Morrison all entered the week as available bats and we can debate whether the Rays selected the best option available. Morrison signed for the fewest guaranteed dollars, a one-year, $2.5 million deal with incentives.

On the surface, Morrison performed in 2016 like Morrison always has, providing “meh”-level production from a corner position. Morris slashed .238/.319/.414 with a 101 wRC+ in 2016 and owns a .245/.325/.416 and 105 wRC+ for his career. He’s shown power, plate discipline and the ability to hit for average, but he has rarely put all his skills together at the same point in time.

He’s also been prone to weak fly-ball contact, producing the 27th-highest infield fly-ball rate since 2014 among qualified hitters. In 2015 and 2016, he recorded a modest 8% barrel percentage.

But the Rays have familiarity with a player who has increased his HR/FB ratio in each of the last three seasons, reaching 15.2% last season, which was the second best mark of his career. After a dreadful April, Morrison produced a 125 wRC+, .821 OPS and 14 homers over his next 86 games until he was shut down in September with a wrist injury. Jason Hanselman dug into what appeared to be an improved process after a poor April.

Morrison has better contact skills than Carter, he’s considerably younger than Napoli (Morrison will turn 30 in May), and he has more defensive versatility, capable of playing a corner-outfield position if necessary. And the Rays have familiarity with the player.

We’ll have to wait and see if the Rays chose the wisest investment option among the remaining bats available, but Morrison does allow for the Rays to complete an opportunistic offseason. Tampa Bay not only added valuable future years of control and surplus value, but if Morrison builds off his 2016 and Miller can handle second base, then the Rays will have made themselves a better team for tomorrow without suffering much, if any, production loss today.