Looking for a Way Forward for the Red Sox
The Boston Red Sox 2015 season is starting to look like an abject failure. A week ago, they were not too far from pulling back up to .500 and were only five and a half games back of first place in a weak division, and they had an upcoming six game stretch against the Orioles and Blue Jays that presented a real opportunity to gain some ground on two of their competitors. Instead, the Red Sox lost all six games, are now 10 games under .500, and are eight games behind both the Yankees and Rays, and seven games behind the Blue Jays. In one week’s time, they’ve moved from being within spitting distance of first place to being equally far back of fourth place.
Nearly every move the organization made last winter is currently looking like a disaster. The big acquisitions of Hanley Ramirez (-0.4 WAR), Pablo Sandoval (+0.1 WAR), and Rick Porcello (+0.5 WAR) have resulted in a trio of highly paid replacement level performers, and the more minor acquisitions like Wade Miley (+0.5 WAR) and Justin Masterson (-0.2 WAR) have been just as ineffective. While the history of these deals won’t be written based on their first few months in Boston, it’s fair to say that things aren’t exactly working out according to the team’s plans.
And now the Red Sox are heading towards a crossroads. This experiment hasn’t worked, and with just six weeks to go before the trade deadline, the Red Sox have to start considering the fact that they may be sellers at the deadline. The upside of being terrible is that it’s a good year to be selling talent, but the Red Sox are struggling in large part because their big expensive acquisitions have been lousy, and it’s not so easy to dump $100 million contracts a few months after they were signed. The path forward for the Red Sox isn’t so obvious, but let’s try to figure out some priorities for this team’s short-term and longer-term future.
Find A Position For Hanley Ramirez
No part of this experiment has gone wrong in more ways than putting Hanley Ramirez in the outfield. Manny Ramirez might have shown Red Sox fans that a great hitter can still be highly valuable while playing poor defense in left field, but Hanley Ramirez is not Manny Ramirez at the plate, and the fielding, well…
I… I think Hanley Ramirez is a worse left fielder than Manny. Yeah I think so.
— Matthew Kory (@mattymatty2000) April 25, 2015
I've been watching baseball for over four decades. Hanley Ramirez is the worst defensive outfielder I've ever seen.
— David Laurila (@DavidLaurilaQA) April 25, 2015
By UZR, Hanley has already rated as 10 runs below an average defensive left fielder this year, despite playing just over 400 innings out there in the first two months of the season; that’s a -37 UZR/150; Manny didn’t have a season that poor in his entire career. DRS rates Hanley even worst, at -13, and while I only quoted two tweets from FG authors who watch a lot of Red Sox games, I think it’s fair to say that the general reaction to watching Ramirez play the outfield aligns with the numbers. Hanley Ramirez is just not a Major League quality outfielder, and he doesn’t appear to be trying to become one.
By signing Sandoval to play third base, the Red Sox left themselves no real options if this experiment didn’t work, however. David Ortiz is locked in at designated hitter, and while the team could trade Mike Napoli and stick Hanley at first base, I don’t know that I’d have much confidence in Hanley learning another new position on the fly. Indifference is a problem at every position on the diamond, and more and more, Hanley Ramirez is looking like a guy who just may not be interested in playing defense.
So for 2016 and beyond, the Red Sox probably need to view Ramirez as a DH. And that brings us to their next decision.
Figure Out What To Do With David Ortiz
Ortiz is 39, and currently hitting .229/.313/.414; it looks like his power is starting to erode, and while he might be able to rebound into being a decent hitter based on walks and contact, an aging DH with declining power isn’t exactly a franchise cornerstone. But Ortiz has a complicated contract structure for the next two years, with team options that automatically vest if he passes a year-end physical. It would probably be best for the Red Sox if Ortiz would simply retire after this season, opening up the DH spot for Hanley and eliminating their logjam of guys who can’t play the field, but he doesn’t sound like a guy contemplating walking away, and if he passes his physical and has ~$15 million in guaranteed salary coming his way in 2016, he may very well decide to try and go out on a better note.
Ortiz has full no-trade rights through the 10-and-5 rule in the CBA, so the Red Sox can’t trade him without his consent, and he’s previously stated that he doesn’t want to play anywhere besides Boston. So if Ortiz decides he wants to keep playing, and he wants to keep playing in Boston, the only thing the Red Sox can do is hope he fails his physical. But given that they probably shouldn’t carry both Ramirez and Ortiz on next year’s roster, then Ramirez’s future in Boston might be determined by whether Ortiz is willing to go away after this season.
If Ortiz wants to come back for 2016, Boston might not have much choice but to sell low on Hanley, shipping him to a team that doesn’t already have a DH under contract, and likely eating some of his contract in the process. The Dodgers bailed out the franchise the last time they were in this situation, but it’s probably not wise to count on anyone do them that kind of favor a second time.
Don’t Overreact To The Pitching Problems
The primary narrative regarding this Red Sox team surrounded their lack of an ace, with their five-decent-starters idea drawing a lot of suspicion from those outside the organization. And the team’s rotation hasn’t done anything to prove the critics wrong, putting up a 4.94 ERA that ranks as the worst in baseball. But of all the Red Sox issues, this is probably the one that can mostly be fixed by just remaining patient, because the primary driver of their poor performance is mostly just about failing in important situations.
Overall, the Red Sox starting pitchers — with the assistance of some poor defense — have allowed a .322 wOBA, 11 points higher than the AL’s average wOBA of .311. But a .322 wOBA generally doesn’t translate to 4.8 runs allowed per game; the Twins, for instance, have allowed a .323 wOBA but are giving up just 4.2 runs per game. The Red Sox do need better pitching to contend than they have now, but their staff’s results in the first half of 2015 don’t reflect the normal value of what you’d expect from the number of hits and walks they’ve allowed.
While Joe Kelly, Wade Miley, Rick Porcello, Clay Buchholz, and Eduardo Rodriguez aren’t likely good enough to win a championship without great teammates around them, neither is this group likely to continue to be a total disaster going forward. The team could definitely use another high-quality starting pitcher, but remaining patient with this group is likely a better choice than dumping a bunch of guys who are likely to start getting better results sooner than later.
The Red Sox have a number of real problems that are going to require active steps in order to fix them. They need to dump one DH, find a new left fielder, upgrade at first base, find a platoon partner for Pablo Sandoval, and add another talented arm or two to the pitching staff. That’s not all easily accomplished, and while the team has a good farm system, the best talents remain in the lower rungs of the minor leagues, so the team can’t really count on significant infusions of talent from within the organization.
The Red Sox are in a tough position. They’re better than they’ve played, and should be expected to perform decently in the second half if the team is kept together, but they’ve dug themselves a large enough hole that even a solid finish probably doesn’t salvage the 2015 season. The assembled pieces don’t make a cohesive roster, and the team needs to make some significant decisions about how to proceed the rest of this year and heading into next year. There are still some good pieces in place, but it isn’t entirely clear how the Red Sox are going to sort out the Hanley Ramirez situation, and unless Pablo Sandoval starts hitting, this doesn’t look like an offense that can carry a mediocre pitching staff.
The 2016 Red Sox are going to have to look a lot different than the 2015 Red Sox. How they get there isn’t so obvious, though, and the organization is probably going to have to make some tough decisions over the rest of the year. If David Ortiz doesn’t give them a get-out-of-jail-free card by retiring, unwinding this mess could be quite the challenge indeed.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
yes, a lot of teams have beaten them over the last two seasons.
Cheer up Sox fans, at least u get Porcello for the next 4 years at the bargain price of $82 million!!!
Did anyone think Porcello was a bad pitcher when he was with the Tigers?
Tigers thought he was a good reliever come playoff time last year.
You mean the Tigers thought he wasn’t better than Price, Scherzer, and Verlander? That’s not exactly the same as not a good pitcher.
That’s what happens when your starting rotation is Scherzer, Price, Anibal, and Verlander. Not a reflection of Porcello’s abilities at all.
it’s at least a little odd that you’d make a playoffs reliever your $20m #1sp, no?
WRONG. Porcello was not in the bullpen in the playoffs. Sanchez was sent to the pen. Porcello was suppose to start game 4 against the Orioles, but the Tigers got swept in 3. http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/09/30/tigers-playoff-rotation-has-scherzer-in-game-1-and-verlander-not-price-in-game-2/
@holymoly
Not really. Madison Bumgarner was a playoff reliever.
well, i guess my point is if contenders are building rotations of scherzer price verlander sanchez, how the heck does a huge market luxury tax team like boston enter the season with porcello as their #1? and how do they get called a contender when they do it?
Your point is you don’t like the sox and you’ll say pretty much anything in service of that point. We get it.
Porcello was 4ERA guy who ate innings and was a solid #4. He would pitch well for 5-6 outings, then have an earned run sink game where he could not get anyone out.
There are 100 pitchers paid half of Porcello or less in AAV that can do that.
The Red Sox are just going to throw a huge pile of money at some free agent starters this off-season. David Price and Jeff Samardzija will vault them all the way to third place next year!!
Ortiz is sitting at 475 career homeruns. There’s no way he retires short of 500. Ownership and the fan base are in love with him. He’s on this team through at least 2016. How about Ramirez at 3rd and Sandoval at 1st next season?
That sounds like a corner infield that can get them all the way to 4th place!
Let’s see how much they love him when he’s hamstringing their lineup next year. The Sox repeatedly throw players under the bus and lapdogs in the press feed it to the mentally deficient fan base.
Haters gonna hate.
Im willing to bet he finishes the year hitting 260 with 25 homers. It wont be ortiz fault if they fall short.
Ortiz only needs one more juiced up season to get to 500.
I thought the same thing about Fred McGriff and Carlos Delgado.
this is a team with no hope and no future. the phillies will be relevant again before the red sox have a winning season.
That statement you just made is baseless, but good for you!
That’s it! Aggressively leap to defend a team and front office that are headed for their second straight last place finish!
He didn’t do that. He wrote that the previous comment was baseless, which it was. So… That’s it!
You’re absolutely right. Mookie Betts, Eduardo Rodriguez, Xander Bogaerts, Rusney Castillo, Yoan Moncada, Blake Swihart, Henry Owens, Andrew Benintendi, Rafael Devers, Manuel Margot, Brian Johnson, and Devin Marrero don’t even exist!
Most of those guys are scrubs Goat, but ok.
All of those are useful pieces jn a vaccuum. Granted marrero looks l Ike a utility infielder, brian johnson will be lucky to be a backend starter. And you really can flip a coin on basically the rest of those guys minus betts and bogey as to whether or not they succeed. They still are valuable pieces despite not being pfoven mlers.
His comment is based on the blind arrogance that the Red Sox have shown by assuming that they will win based 65%-75% hitting and boldly suggesting that in 2015, in a league that is DOMINATED by pitching, they will contend with below average defense and a pitching staff with not a whole lot of direction.
Not if I have anything to say about it!
It certainly looked like a weak division two weeks. The division is 32-12 against other divisions in June:
Jays 8-1
Yankees 7-1
Rays 9-4
Red Sox 5-2
Orioles 3-4
Now, these clubs were already 24-9 in June at the point where the Sox started their losing streak, so at that point it was still in the process of strengthening.
So Dave’s narrative is a little out of temporal synch but still essentially accurate. The Sox entered June just 4 games back in what looked like a weak division. They went 5-2 but lost 1.5 games, then lost 6 straight and dropped another 2.5.
WAR projections had the AL East as the best division in mlb heading into the season, and by every stat other than win/loss record they have been up at or near the top all during the year, too.
The main issue is that all the non-Sox teams are average to above-average, so they tear each other to pieces due to the MLB’s imbalanced schedule.
You must be talking about the AL Central…
Nah. The Orioles are a lot better than the Indians.
…and my dad could beat up your dad! So there!
Was noting this last night – only division with more Ws is the NL Central, and no other division has a 4th place team playing .500. The “weak” AL East may not have a clear front-runner, but it’s beating other divisions for Ws and not just competitive (non-Sox) because all the teams suck.
wonder how much money they’d have to eat to get Hanley to neutral trade value right now.
I’d think a ton unless a team believes in him at third base (or short stop, but that’s probably a bridge too far).
If a team thinks of him as a third baseman, they might be willing to stomach the 3/66 that comes after this year if the Red Sox eat most of 2015.
If not, you basically have 10 teams (no AL East team will trade for him) and he just doesn’t have premium value as a DH, so I’d say about half.
Hanley Ramirez recently said that he considers himself an outfielder and is no longer an infielder. His tone suggests that he’s not open to the idea of going back to playing the infield.
I thought his tone was that he did not want to really try to be a good outfielder???
Does he actually want to just be a DH?
He could be saying that he considers himself an outfielder because that’s what he is in Boston, so why stir up shit?
I think that statement was made so as to not publicly speak out against management’s current plans for him.
Yeah, there’s a guy getting paid $100m over the next 5 years at his only other position, so there’s no way in hell he should be saying he’d prefer to play the infield.
He meant he considers himself someone who wants to be “out of the field” rather than “in the field”, as in he just wants to hit.
Trade Panda and plug in HanRam at 3rd.
That could get them all the way to Xth place!
No one is going to take Panda.
Hanley can at least hit, so he’s got more trade value.
“Find a platoon partner for Pablo Sandoval”
$95m platooned, declining 3b, who just finished torching the organization he left. What a joy to have on your roster.
Giants fans are still upset they let him go. I could see them taking on a lot of his money.
Thought Ortiz option vests on plate appearances. Sox should trade Papi if they can, move Pablo to first base, Hanley or Bogaerts to third base/ss. Wait for a healthy MLB catcher and find an ace for next season.
You realize that the article already mentioned Ortiz’s 10-5 rights?
How long are we going to continue the “well the rotation is fine, calm down” narrative here? There is basically three borderline replacement level guys right now, Buchholz and his forever inconsistent self and a rookie. Combine that with a bad defense, and it’s a mess. Stop excusing it.
Nonsense. Porcello has a 101 xFIP- (career 95), Kelly 102, Miley 116 (career 100). The three “borderline replacement level guys” are all OK third or solid fourth starters (with Porcello and Kelly having upside for better). You can certainly win a pennant with them and two top-of-rotation guys.
And the “bad defense” is +15 DRS except for Sandoval and Ramirez, who are a combined -22 (and have looked that bad). UZR has them at -14.3 and everyone else at +9.7. And that’s with Pedroia and Napoli playing at league average, Sandoval’s always been an average defender, and getting Hanley out of LF is the topic of this article.
A 100 ERA-/FIP- is not what a third starter is. That’s a fourth starter. Period.
Of those three, Porcello is the only one who has ever flashed the potential to be a third starter.
I wouldn’t call Buchholz, with 9 fWAR and 11 rWAR through his 5 full seasons a #3 starter, either. Between injuries and inconsistency, he’s a #4 as well.
Eduardo Rodriguez could be a stud #2, but he also could be a reliever for all we know. TINSTAAPP, and all that. Same for Owens
The flaw with the Red Sox rotation isn’t that they entered the season without an ace. It’s that they entered the season without any #3 caliber starters.
There is not a single person in their opening rotation of Buchholz/Porcello/Masterson/Miley/Kelly whom anyone should have expected to be an above-average pitcher. In fact, only Porcello should have been expected to even be average, between Masterson and Buchholz’s consistent inconsistency, Miley’s shift from the NL West to the AL East, and the fact that Kelly has never been a good starting pitcher in a full season league.
I stopped reading your comment when I saw the one-word sentence “Period.”
Cool beans.
I mostly agree. That being said, Miley’s certainly flashed the potential of a #3. His 2012 was a nice season by both ERA and FIP (and produced 4.2 fWAR), and last year he bounced back from an iffy 2013 as far as peripherals go, with a 3.50 FIP and career high 8.18 K/9.
I don’t think Miley’s proven himself as a #3 by a long shot, and I’m not convinced he ever reaches that bar, but I just disagreed that he hadn’t flashed any potential in that regard.
I don’t understand how you can say that 100 FIP- is not a #3 starter. That doesn’t make any sense. Given that we know relievers perform better than starters, assuming you’re correct, that would mean the pool of relievers, #1 starters, #2 starters, and #3 starters are all above average. Then, you have your #4 starters who you’re saying are average. How bad would a number 5 (the only pitchers left in the pool) have to be to make that accurate. It would certainly be below replacement level, which doesn’t make any sense. Not that I care that much to quibble over a “true #3,” as that’s pretty much nonsense anyway, but your argument is just wrong. “Period.”
Cool Lester is right; on a contender, you’re number 3 SP cannot be average, unless your pitching staff is unrelated to your being a contender. If #3 is average, #4 & #5 are below average, #1 & #2 are above average, you break even on pitching. Even with 2 WCs, I don’t think of 0.500 as a contender.
The cumulative effect of mediocre pitching across the board is an over-exposed bullpen that has to go 3-4 innings every night.
Bostons’ other issue seems to be that these guys’ pitching styles don’t play well in Fenway.
Building off of what BMac said, calling someone a #1/2/3/4/5 starter is a scouting term. It’s shorthand for calling someone a 65+/65-60/55-60/45-55/40-45 player.
There aren’t 30 #1s, 30 #2s, etc. There are maybe 30 total 1/2 starters. A #2 is a Hiroki Kuroda or Andy Pettitte type. Someone you expect 3.5-4.5 wins from. Not every team in the league has a genuine number two.
The Red Sox, though, went in without anyone who could fairly be called an established #3, so it’s not surprising at all how rough things have been.
BaseballFan, you’ve got a point, but Miley’s total numbers over 2013 and 2014 are so impressively, metronomically average (104 ERA-/105 FIP-/1.8 fWAR/year) that I feel it’s most accurate to consider 2012 an anomaly and consider him a true #4, especially at the age of 28.
.550 looks like the lower threshold for contention with the wild card framework.
Cool Lester is spouting garbage. Of the 10 teams in the AL that are at least .500 (my arbitrary cutoff for contending), exactly 1 of them (the Rangers) has 3 starting pitchers with at least 40 IP who have FIP- better than 100. On 9/10 contending AL teams, a FIP- of 100 would be their 3rd best starter or better.
The issue isn’t that I’m “spouting garbage.” It’s that you don’t know what the term “number three starter” means.
Read a book, Lana. Or literally anything Kiley’s written on the subject.
Or this helpful article on the matter by John Sickels: http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/8/7/3226335/defining-1-2-3-4-5-starters
It’s not rocket science, kiddo.
I agree, yeah. At this point Miley is a #4. I just wanted to nitpick that he has showed the potential in the past, haha.
There’s still some hope he can put it together someday! Just hopefully not for Boston 😛
Hah, fair enough!
Love this line: “You can certainly win a pennant with them and two top-of-rotation guys.”
Sure – just add that.
I mean, I agree that the rotation is taking too much heat (much of their bad results come from bad defense, poor cluster luck, etc.), but isn’t the fact that they have no top-of-rotation guys kind of a big problem?
I love the way ‘Cool Lester’ uses FIP when talking about Porcello and WAR when talking about Buchholz. He’s clearly cherrypicking stats that make each player look worse than he actually is.
Porcello’s having a poor season, for sure. But calling him a 4th starter is a joke. he finished 48th in WAR for starters last season. 4th starters are between 90-120th place. Sure you can point out this stat or that one to make him look worse than he is, but theres no way that some 90th place starter in WAR (Tom Koehler, Marlins) was better than him last season.
…you do realize that WAR is based off of FIP, right?
There really isn’t any sort of manipulation necessary.
A fourth starter is a guy whom you expect to be worth between 1.5 and 2.5 wins in any given season. Per Kiley’s notation, a projected #4 gets a 50 FV. That’s MLB Average, or 2 WAR.
Over Porcello’s 6 MLB full seasons, he’s averaged 2.2 fWAR and 1.8 rWAR, with a 103 ERA- and a 99 FIP-. That’s textbook fourth starter production.
He’s absolutely got the stuff to be a #3, and he flashed that potential last season. The Sox bet on something having clicked, and that he’d be build on that to be a true #3 going forward. Unfortunately for them, it’s looking more and more like last season’s improvements were only a flash.
Also, you’re completely incorrect on 4th starters being “between 90th and 120th place.” There are not 30 No. 1 starters. There are not even 30 #1 and #2 starters. No. 1 starters are the very best in the league; guys from whom you expect to be in the 5 WAR range (or better) in any given season.
I looked at it this offseason and i was surprised by how well WAR slotted pitchers – at least when you normalize to war/100ip.
Basicalky there were actually about 30 5+ war/200 guys, 60ish 4+, 90ish 3+, 120ish 2+, when you used a decent minimum ip (i think i used about 50ip or somethng).
and then there were about 10 or so that came in around 6+ which is a pretty good cutoff for “aces”. I might check again now as the jays go into extras.
…but you can’t normalize WAR/100 IP when talking about starting pitchers. Durability is a hugely important part of what a starting pitcher brings to the table.
Last year, 14 players had 4.5 or more FIP-WAR, and 13 players had 4.5 or more RA9-WAR.
Over the last 2 years, 10 players have 9 or more FIP-WAR, and 12 players have 9 or more RA9-WAR.
Over the last 3 years, 8 players have 13 or more FIP-WAR, and 12 players have 13 or more RA9-WAR.
The classic definition of an ace is “Top 10-12 pitcher in baseball.” That holds up (roughly) with the 4.5+ WAR definition.
Including the aces, there are 20-30 pitchers producing 3.5+ WAR/year in each of those ranges, as well.
So…yeah. There aren’t enough pitchers in the first two tiers to go around, even before you account for teams with more than one.
well i think it’s actually crucial to separate skill from health. First we determine skill, then we can look and see whether health is a particular issue for a particular player. so i woukd always normalize to start.
on the other hand, i should probably normalize by starts instead of IP, as the ability to go deep into games is a definite indicator of skill.
this article will likely drop off thebfront page before i get to it but i’ll still try.
Health is a skill, though. Durability is a huge part of the value provided by a starting pitcher.
I’d definitely be interested to see what you turn up, though. I’ll check back for the next few days.
we all know the projections, but in addition i like to look at a recent sample to give us more and sometimes more relevant information.
the current year is too small a sample but addin last year to give us a solid 1.5yr sample of most recent performance i find can be helpful.
2014-15 as SP
Porcello 6.5ip/gs, 99era-, 100fip-, 97xfip-
Buchholz 6.1ip/gs, 125era-, 96fip-, 98xfip-
Miley 5.9ip/gs, 117era-, 106fip-, 100xfip-
Kelly 5.6ip/gs, 120era-, 112fip-, 108xfip-
Masterson 5.0ip/gs, 163era-, 124fip-, 112xfip-
So we have Porcello who has been able to give thoroughly average performance while eating a good amount of innings – an average #3 / good #4.
We have Buchholz and Miley who manage around league average peripherals but haven’t been able to translate that into an average era….or even close to average, and don’ t go especially deep into games either. These are probably guys you want to call #4s, though with clay that comes with more variability than with miley. Not sure if being a dependable #4 like Miley is more valuable than being a guy like clay who fluctuates wildly around the #4 level.
Kelly is well below average across the board, but not completrly useless. a typical #5 type.
Masterson hasn’t been mlb calibre.
At this point I see a #3, two #4s, and a #5…or at least that’s how they’ve performed over a large most recent sample, and i’m not sure there’s many factors which would make us expect any significant change to this performance.
I’d say Rick’s a strong 4 with potential to be a 3.
But yeah, otherwise I totally agree.
Masterson is the only one who i think was a bad idea to rely on. You hope kelly can match stuff and performance. Bucholz is a guy. Can dominate in stretches. Porcello is a guy they thought was finally getting there. Hes still not bad. Miley is fine as a 5. But i think they thought they were going to get hamels. If they had him all year i dont think a peep is said about the staff
Hanley’s likely to be a great DH as soon as he gets to do it full-time, so it probably makes more sense to live with him at 1B for just next year. Ortiz is actually not a bad defender and could play there two or three times a month, and if he and Hanley platoon at DH, you’ve limited Hanley’s 1B time to about 90 games. If he can play -15 defense, he costs you just a win, and you’ll more than make that up at DH over the next three years, compared to whomever else might fill the position.
not sure ~130wrc+ makes for a “great” DH.
It would be the 5th highest wRC+ among DHs right now.
You mean among the 12 qualified DHs (including HanRam)?
true, but isn’t 5th out of 10-12 qualified DHs closer to mediocre than great?
iirc the top DHs are guys posting 150+ wrc+, no?
and even those guys you probably don’t want to be paying $20m/yr for.
iirc the top DHs are guys posting 150+ wrc+, no?
2013-present, no one exceeded 141. Ortiz himself is at 135.
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=dh&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2015&month=0&season1=2013&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=17,d
2012-present, only Ortiz and Encarnacion exceed 131 – and they top out at 141 and 144.
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=dh&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2015&month=0&season1=2012&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=17,d
hmm don’t know if that’s the best split to look at.
2015: Cruz 175, Fielder 153, Arod 143
2014: Martinez 166, Encarnacion 150, Cruz 137
2013: Ortiz 152, Encarnacion 144, Mauer 143
I mean Hanley wouldn’t make a bad DH, but be probably wouldn’t be a great one, and definitely not a $20m one.
I agree that arc’s splits aren’t really relevant, because they include bad years so far this year. If you’re looking at what top DH’s post, you should look at the top #’s each season, rather than how a top DH performs over the course of 3-4 years.
And if you take 2015 out – since nobody would say Ortiz or Encarnacion are top DHs this year – then things look much more rosy. 2012-2014, they’re both between 148-150.
Wait, why would you want to ignore data in favor of single season samples? You used the term “the top DHs”, not “the top DH seasons”.
None of the players you just listed sustained their one-season performances over greater samples, but Hanley won’t be a great one unless he does?
Really weird to call a larger sample irrelevant.
I took it to mean “the top DHs each year are guys posting 150+ wrc+”, like if someone said “the HR leaders usually hit about 40 HR”. That doesn’t mean anybody averages that many HR over several seasons – it just means the league leader is around that range.
That may not be what he actually meant, but that’s how I interpreted it.
Also, Hanley’s 2015 RoS projections are in the ~130 wRC+ range, but he’s on the wrong side of 30, so that is likely to go down for 2016-18, and that is before factoring in the DH penalty.
Edgar Martinez had eight seasons with a wRC+ of over 150, seven of those as a DH, and Edgar isn’t even in the Hall of Fame. So 130 is not impressive at all.
(Perhaps that was a bit sarcastic.)
If Ortiz does retire, it’s still unclear how Ramirez hits as a DH – not everyone hits as well as a DH as they do playing a position.
It also reminds me of the Baseball Prospectus comparison of free agents re-signed by their former team, and those who sign with another – free agents that signed with another team tend to do worse, whether it be that their former team knows of health issues, etc., or another reason. The Giants tried to re-sign Sandoval, but they are more loyal than most clubs. As others have mentioned, Pablo’s hitting this year will likely improve significantly, though he’s under more pressure as a high profile free agent signing for Boston than he would have staying with San Francisco, so his performance may suffer because of that.
Or the fact that he’s under a lot less pressure, because whether he goes on the Paleo Diet or eats his way out of baseball, he’s got $100m in his pocket.
Ironically you say he wouldnt make a 20 mil dollar dh yet list prince, v mart, mauer an a rod all who literally make the same 20 mil.
unless im mistaken only vmart signed his contract as a DH
Biggest issue for the Sox imo is their lack of impact performers. This was pooh-poohed in the offseason but imo it’s crucial to building a contender. Pedroia is the only one who is all that close to impact performance, but even then he hasn’t been even a top 50 type player last year or this year, nor was he projected to be this year. He’s not even a a clearcut top 5 2B anymore.
I think everyone understood the decisions to not pay elite players like lester and ellsbury for their decline years, but that doesn’t mean you don’t need elite players to contend.
and handing out a bunch of $20m/yr contracts for 3war type players never seemed like a good idea to anyone. even Dave’s article about the Hanley and Panda signings admitted these moves could only really make sense if future moves made up for it (which was a rather strange analysis of course). These guys have been worst case scenario so far, of course, but even getting back to recent performance wouldn’t mame them core impqct players on a contender i don’t think
so where are they going to get the stars? xander and betts have a decent chance but i’m not sure there’s good odds from the other prospects. they don’t have much financial flexibility left, and even if they did, stars usually only come available in their decline years, so that would require a shift in philosophy.
IMO, they’re probably best positioned to move some of their deep prospect pool for elite controllable/signable performers.
But imo fangraphs has a history of underrating the importance of having elite performers, which i think is an offshoot of overemphasizing “value” additions. Value is important but performance is more important.
I think a pair of 22 year-olds who project to have 3.9 and 3.5 WAR (averaging bWAR and fWAR), the latter (Betts) despite insanely bad BABIP luck*, have more than a decent chance to be impact players.
I also had Christian Vazquez projected as the 5th best catcher in MLB this year, based on Steamer / ZiPS and his pitch-framing record.
*And it is luck; I’ve got a nifty regression formula based on Hard%, Popup%, Oppo%, BB%, K%, GB%, and IFH% which has its own regression model)
Betts/Bogaerts are both on pace for 2.5-3.5ish war which is solid. They definitely have a decent chance of improving into star quality 5+ war players….but that’s hardly a guarantee. Even being 22 doesn’t guarantee that kind of improvememt. Plenty examples of kids that age who don’t follow with that kind of improvememt.
As for Vazquez…this is exactly why other baseball fans get so fed up with the boston market. This guy was a nothing prospect to start last year, didn’t hit a lick all year, and then suddenly with a small sample of good defense as a rook boston fans and media are projecting him as an above average starting catcher. this is craziness. Even his small sample pitch framing numbers were no better than what guys like David Ross put up every year, and Ross bas a much better bat and people still don’t think he can start. This happens too often with boston prospects – especially when it comes to nebulous qualities like defense – it’s not good enough for the boston market that guys like vazquez bradley iglesias are good defensively……instead even based on tiny samples, even when stats are good but not jaw dropping….the boston market starts calling these guys ALL WORLD DEFENDERS and GENERATIONAL BEST IN LEAGUE DEFENSIVE PLAYERS.
this has to stop. there are a crapload of amazing defensive players, who have put up better small sample defensive numbers than these boston kids, who never became regular mlbers.
Yup. Very much this.
Although, I’d say that I really like Betts’s chances at being a 4-ish guy, and I think Bogaerts can/will be a star.
Yes, it’s definitely true that Vazquez had a small sample size in 2014. And I know Fangraphs is a bad place to bring this up… but eyes don’t lie.
We’d all prefer a couple hundred games of data before we jump to conclusions but sometimes ya still gotta watch players play. Apply the eye test to Vazquez behind the plate for a couple games. Of course there are many similar players when we only look at a small statistical sample.
Anyway, you’ll have to forgive us Sox fans for getting excited about a 23 yr old catcher with defensive ambitions. We just came off of a few years of Saltamacchia after all.
Further more… Iglesias and Bradley ARE all league defenders. Most of the league would agree on that. Heck Bradley almost won a Gold Glove from AAA last year.
you Boston fans have to stop this. they are just a couple amongst hordes of great fielding youngsters. there ia nothing all world or generational about them.
Top CF uzr/150 seasons since 2011 ( minimum 500 innings):
1. Bourjos ’12: 40.8
2. Dyson ’14: 36.6
3. Lagares ’13: 33.1
4. Fuld ’14: 31.3
5. Gentry ’12: 30.6
6. Gomez ’11: 29.3
7. Gutierez ’11: 28.8
8. Pollock ’13: 28.6
9. Gomez ’13: 27.2
10. Enciarte ’14: 25.5
11. Lagares ’14: 25.3
12. Dyson ’13: 25.0
13. Cain ’13: 23.9
14. Bourn ’12: 23.4
15. Bradley ’14: 22.6
16. Hamilton ’14: 21.7
17. Blanco ’13: 20.0
18. Bourjos ’14: 20.0
19. Harper ’12: 19.1
20. Pollock ’14: 19.0
Top SS uzr/150 seasons since 2011 ( minimum 500 innings):
1. Simmons ’13: 23.9
2. Simmons ’14: 18.4
3. Ryan ’12: 16.0
4. Hardy ’14: 15.4
5. Barnes ’13: 14.2
6. Peralta ’12: 13.7
7. Cozart ’14: 13.0
8. Ryan ’11: 12.8
9. Peralta ’14: 12.7
10. Hechavarria ’15: 12.6
11. Janish ’11: 12.2
12. YEscobar ’13: 12.2
13. AEscobar ’13: 12.1
14. Barmes ’11: 11.8
15. Barmes ’12: 11.3
16. Peralta ’11: 11.2
17. Hardy ’12: 10.9
18. Simmons ’15: 10.8
19. Ramirez ’11: 10.0
20. Crawford ’12: 10.0
21. Hardy ’11: 9.7
22. Escobar ’11: 9.3
23. Cozart ’12: 9.3
24. Rollins ’12: 8.7
25. Andrus ’12: 8.5
26. Drew ’11: 8.4
27. Tulowitzki ’11: 8.4
28. Iglesias ’13: 8.3
29. Aybar ’14: 8.0
30. Ramirez ’12: 8.0
I’m a Yankees fan and Boston hater, and I buy into Vazquez.
He was certainly not a nothing prospect, for starters. And his defense is good enough that he can be one of the top defenders in the majors. Yes, better than Ross.
He’ll never be a great hitter, but he’s showed enough to hope that he can be a somewhat average bat for the position. No power and average bat speed, but decent discipline and contact.
@Damaso-
So since 2011, Bradley has flashed top 12 ability (removing duplicate seasons by the same player)? That list is silly – look instead at how he compares to the league average. Pretty damn good in the field. Your argument defeats itself.
And before you say it, I’m a Yankees fan.
He said they had a chance. And they do. His main point, which i could not possibly agree with more strongly, is that fangraphs underestimates the importance of capital E elite transcendent talent regardless of value.
If betts or xander become stars great. But recall the clock is already ticking on xander. The cheap value years are evaporating.
If it takes him until arb 2 to become a star well most of the value is gone already.
Imo teams like the red Sox shouldn’t balk at getting less than ideal value from a guy like Lester (not him specifically of course).
Add a no doubt ace to the sox and this team looks much much different. All the SP slide down a spot. A 5 win improvement in this the current parity environment is may huge.
Also cheringtins results have been abysmal.
Process is important (though it can easily be argued the process has been terrible) but results matter more.
Is Lester a no doubt ace? He has only 1.3 WAR so far this season and his 5.6 mark last year was likely an aberration, considering that was the highest WAR of his career. Lester is a #2 starter in my opinion. “Aces” are guys like Kershaw, Felix, Sale, Scherzer, Kluber, etc.
Its not just about cheap value years. A lot of the value on those guys is that they are essentially on short term deals. Allowing you to reevaluate. People are so hung up on getting above market value production when in reality you never get an in prime guy on one or two year deals. That in itself adds quantifiable value.
As a big Vazquez fanboy (huge fan of his framing abilities), I’m intrigued by this ranking. What are your offensive projections like for him?
Lester is “elite” but Pedroia is not? I want whatever you’re smoking.
fair enough. you’re right, he and pedroia are at a similar level.
Lester was elite last year though, which made the call tougher.
I stopped reading when you said Ortiz’s power is starting to erode. Ortiz is hitting 288/398/547 against RHP, good for a 156 wRC+. His ISO is actually higher vs RHP than it was last year.
The problem is that Ortiz is worthless against LHP.
The solution is to platoon Ortiz, and he’ll be just as productive as he was last year vs RHP. The issue is still finding a spot for Hanley, of course, but let’s not pretend that Ortiz is declining offensively. He clearly can’t hit LHP this year, and I don’t know if we should expect him to next year, but he’s really not showing any signs of declining vs RHP. At least vs RHP, that’s not a bat you want out of the lineup.
Stinking against LHP is still stinking as a hitter.
I agree with your point, he’s still a great option against RHP, which is the majority of SP. The issue is that he’ll have to sit ~2 games a week, and he’s easily LOOGY’ed in later innings.
He has definite value, but it’s tough to swallow a 3/4 time DH. I hope they can work some other platoon players around him, such as acquiring a 1B that smashes lefties, but isn’t great against righties, then move Nap to DH when facing a LH SP.
Dave’s point was that his power is dropping, which isn’t exactly the case. He’s struggling vs LHP, which may drop the overall ISO, but to describe it as Dave did is to imply he’s not aware of the fact he’s still destroying RHP. He didn’t even acknowledge that he’s still crushing RHP, so to me it comes off as he’s unaware.
Yeah, it’s not ideal to platoon a DH, but Ortiz is still a useful player and isn’t the problem with the Sox. I know you want to find a spot for Hanley but Ortiz is showing he’s clearly more effective than Hanley against RHP.
“a 1B that smashes lefties, but isn’t great against righties”
Napoli.
This was my thought as well. Hanley has a .376 wOBA vs. LHP this year and .390 for his career. Why not use Hanley as the DH against lefties and Ortiz against righties? That’d not only play to each player’s offensive strengths, but mitigate some of Hanley’s defensive problems.
Why are Red Sox comment sections so universally terrible? I get they are a big market and have a pretty vocal, pretty obnoxious fanbase. But that describes several clubs. Even on fangraphs it’s nearly impossible to find a half-reasonable conversation about baseball rather gradeschool shitflinging occasionally dressed up in some data.
Their fans are really stupid and aggressive and take pride in it. People actually put “masshole” bumper stickers on their cars here.
That’s more Pats fans than Sox fans.
The people with Masshole stickers were saying “I don’t like baseball” in 2011 and 2012, and then crowing “Worst to first, BOSTON STRONG!!!!!” in 2013.
“The people with Masshole stickers were saying “I don’t like baseball” in 2011 and 2012, and then crowing “Worst to first, BOSTON STRONG!!!!!” in 2013.”
Utter nonsense. Stick to dry-humping stats, it’s obviously working out very well for you.
Hah, don’t even try, kiddo. I’ve lived in Boston for 15 years.
The “Masshole and Proud!” types were the first to trash Tito when he go scapegoated, and the first to jump off the bandwagon when the Valentine hire mysteriously didn’t work out.
They “had only ever been football fans” when the Sox were in the cellar, and then in 2013 they blew up Facebook, first with outrage about the Middlebrooks interference call, and then with joy about how they’d been here the whole time a few games later.
They were screaming “Anything is possible!” and singing Coach Jags’ praises in 2008, but now they “don’t like” basketball and college football.
The “Barstool Generation” of Boston fans are spoiled bandwagoners convinced that they’re lovable underdogs. They’re why actual Sox fans get a bad rep, even though they have great communities like OtM.
Also…they all skip leg day.
don’t forget all the Bruins fans that popped up when they won the Stanley Cup a few years ago. The die hards are truly some of the most loyal fans, but seriously 9/10 people couldn’t even name a Bruins player before that cup run.
Yeah, I’ll root for the Bruins during the playoffs, since I don’t care enough about hockey to have any real loyalties, but I’d never claim to be a Bruins fan.
It’s a mystery to me too. If you compare other teams with highly vocal, aggro fan bases and outrage-heavy media coverage — say, the New York teams and the Phillies, for starters — the relatively-well-informed sites’ Sox discussions seem almost always to go worse. It may be off base but I’d conjecture that the Sox fan base or at least its Internet presence has less of a firm separation between the well-informed fans and the vocally irate ones than other teams’ have managed.
Yeah, as a guy with split NY/Philly loyalties (it’s complicated, blame Jersey), we seem to do a much better job of segregating the people who want to bitch from people who want to talk about baseball or football.
The fact that it’s a big market team with an obnoxious and entitled fan base is definitely part of it. I think another factor is the “underdog” reputation that Boston enjoyed, but did not really deserve, for many years. I think people got really sick of that narrative and eventually that metastasized into resentment.
I’m a Sox fan myself though, so my perception may be a bit skewed.
I’m a Mets fan, and I will absolutely put Mets fans up against Sox fans any day for offline, in-person, and traditional-media-based obnoxiousness (to say nothing of Yankees fans!). But the way it plays out online among well-informed fans seems really weirdly different. Maybe it’s just a matter of FanGraphs and a few other sites having a small handful of highly committed Red Sox trolls/pot-stirrers, I don’t know.
the amount of offseason fellating of seemingly obviously questionable moves, along with condescending dismissal of any dissenting opinions, on both fangraphs and other media, has engendered plenty of annoyance and schadenfreude.
As a Soxfan, reading this and other sections of Redsox-pieces, it’s hardly a result of the Redsox-fans commenting. I mean, just look at the hate the team gets but also rationally discussion commenters like Eric are getting.
Can anyone recommend a good place to find GIFs of Hanley Ramirez playing LF? I want to witness this terribleness for myself?
You really don’t. Trust me.
Trust him.
I don’t know. He looks ok here:
http://mlb.mlb.com/images/7/9/6/125664796/052015_bos_ramirez_non_throw_med_bvpt4ecl.gif
He can’t play the monster at all. Honestly Manny Ramirez , at the time a giant question mark in left field , could at least play the monster on a day where he felt like playing defense. I think the apathy aspect is a really big part of it. Hanley has also gained like 40 pounds, upper body muscle mostly , in the offseason and can’t run and field like he could in his prime.
Napoli appears to be done, he can’t hit a fastball. I don’t know how that happened, but he sure hits like a man with concussion syndrome. Maybe the sleep apnea has already done it’s damage. The aging Ortiz can’t hit a fastball unless it is under 93, often a lot under. Play Ramirez at 3B, Sandoval at 1B. Cut Napoli loose. DH Ramirez against LHP. Bradley in center, Betts in left, Castillo in right. That is a team that can play .500 ball. Ortiz should be cut loose over the winter. Sentimentality comes with a price, and the Red Sox cannot move on with his plow in the ground. If Ramirez and Sandoval come around in their new positions they will at least be tradable.
The loss of Vazquez was pretty significant.
It seems to me that the man at the top is by far the most important piece of any team, be they called GM or some new obscure title. all the rest is noise. I count maybe five who keep their teams in play over long periods of time, and the rest are mediocre or terrible. Whoever makes that book, the Boston’s are not in it. It is amazing how underpaid great GM’s are. What is a Friedman worth to a billion dollar franchise? Or to one to one who’s value could be tripled with him around?
Good summary. Watching the Red Sox sign two big-name designated hitters this offseason while the Dodgers turned their name players into young assets or useful platoon bats really illustrates the difference in end result a top-tier front office can make when there’s a big payroll.
The Hanley signing seemed pretty good at the time. Then they signed Sandoval, and suddenly both signings looked weird.
Yeah, I was really worried by the Hanley signing.
Then the Sandoval signing came and I laughed and laughed.
I’m pretty sure I read articles here describing how both Hanley and Panda tended to loft a lot of balls to left, which could lead to massive gains in wRC+ when translated to the short left field in Fenway. With breakouts Mookie and Bogaerts joining Pedroia, Ortiz, and Napoli, I was concerned they were building an offensive juggernaut.
Yeah, it will be a blow to all the egos involved (and therein lies half the problem up there – too many egos) but I’d have to believe the best solution (this season) is to have Ortiz and Napoli share DH and move Hanley to 1B. Then they can at least fix the OF… whether that means Bradley, Rusney and Betts or some other combo.
Panda obviously isn’t going anywhere and any solution that involves moving Xander is absurd. Panda will likely regress to his career norms eventually anyway.
Was always amusing how RSN plus the lapping media always brushed aside any talk about the lack of a rotation with “well they’ll just go out and acquire some SPs during the year if they need any…” Ahh yeah.
I mean, Panda’s declined offensively in each of the last three seasons. If he’s below a 110 wRC+ this year, I don’t think anyone should be surprised.
I understand the Hanley signing, and willing to try him out in LF. Considering his offensive upside and that his contract was only 4 guaranteed years, it made sense when they signed him because he would eventually take over for Ortiz at DH. Elite RH hitters, which is what he can be, do not come around often, and especially not at only 4 guaranteed years, when guys like Stanton are getting 10 years. So I was OK with that, and still am.
The Porcello extension I didn’t mind, because at some point you need to spend money to acquire starters. It’s well documented that they didn’t want to take on the risk of a pitcher over 30. So instead of paying an ace and hoping they stay one (Lester), they decided to should risk elsewhere, in this case by paying a young pitcher like an ace and hoping that he becomes one. All in all, i was for it because the red sox can afford contracts with high AAV. That’s there advantage.
The Lackey trade I don’t mind, because the upside of Kelly and/or Craig was higher than any minor leaguer they could have gotten for him. It was again a risk on their part by buying guys with high ceilings at a low point. There was always a risk neither would hit that ceiling, but if either did the trade would pay dividends. I’m all for going for high ceiling players when you have an opportunity.
The Pablo signing never made sense to me. He has been an average to slightly above average player at best in his career. He doesn’t have a good approach, he doesn’t have a lot of power, he doesn’t move very well. The only thing he had going for him was that he was relatively young, but even then its not like he was Porcello young as Porcello. I would love to know what the FO was thinking when they signed him, because I can’t think of a good reason for 5 years, 100 million.
Why was the Lackey trade any good? He’s better than any pitcher on the staff right now (except maybe the Eduardo), he would’ve been cheap, and short term.
Craig is terrible, and Joe Kelly needs to be moved to the bullpen. I get why someone might like the ‘upside’ of a pitcher who throws 95, but trading away your best pitcher for it?
This is coming from a Sox fan who hated Lackey on the Angels, hated the original signing, hated the first three miserable years with him, but came around a bit when he shed 40 pounds in neck fat coming back from TJ surgery.
uh, not to mention was set to play for $500K this season. Yeah, I understand the obsession with assembling RH power bats but I that swap never made any sense. Craig was clearly damaged at that point.
Mozeliak and the entire Cards Fo must’ve been hysterically giddy when that deal was agreed to. “Wait, you’ll take Allen Craig and Joe Kelly for John Lackey at $500K?! Uh, ok…”
Yeah, it’s impossible to be too harsh on the Lackey trade. Not only did they give up a tremendous value, but Allen Craig is due $26.5 million through 2017. It would have made sense for St. Louis to give up something like Kelly just to get rid of Craig’s contract while receiving nothing in return.
I didn’t say the Lackey trade was good, I said I didn’t mind it. You can’t judge a trade based on the results, because hindsight is 20/20. You can only grade a trade based on the approach the team made at the time. After last year, I don’t think the Red Sox FO expected to compete in 2015. They certainly thought they would be better than what they’ve been so far, but Lackey would not have made them a competitor this year.
So they sold Lackey for 2 high upside guys, at the expense of a cheap, solid SP in 2015. Allen Craig was a reclamation project. They bought low on a guy that was derailed by injuries, in hopes that they could get him to return to his previous highs. Kelly was in a slightly similar position, where his stuff is better than the results. If either of those bets had worked, people would have said the trade was excellent. It’s classic floor vs. ceiling, and the Red Sox were going for ceiling. You run the risk of looking like a fool when the players don’t reach their ceiling, but so what? The reward is worth the risk because Lackey was gone after 2015 anyway, and probably would not have helped this years team significantly.
Buying low naturally entails more risk, otherwise the price wouldn’t be low. If STL was asking for Bogaerts or Betts or some other cost controlled young player, you don’t do it. But Lackey was expendable, and ceilings of Kelly and/or Craig would be franchise altering. So I’m OK with it.
George, we said this about the Lackey trade the day it was made: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/cards-improve-by-adding-lackey-not-paying-craig/#comment-4657279 It was that obvious right from the start. And you’re letting defensiveness lead you into hyperbole by calling Craig and Kelly “2 high upside guys.” They weren’t. They were lottery tickets, only if lottery tickets cost you $26.5 million as well as the best starting pitching bargain in baseball.
Actually I should have qualified that by saying the best bargain of starting pitchers who are past their years of team control.
Yup, my feelings exactly. The reason for getting Sandoval might have been the thin 3B market and a counter move to a more aggressive hitting approach, since the Redsox hitters have been too patient.
So far, it really backfired more then even I believed. I thought this signing will hurt in maybe two years, not immediatly. Then again, he often catches fire after these streaks in which he can’t hit anything. Maybe it will get better after all (although likely much to late to matter anyways).
Still, the shaky defense of him is another heavy problem…
A team like the Red $$$ox can afford to eat 1 mistake, no matter how expensive.
If Hanley is a clubhouse cancer – and all indications are such – even when they’re playing well, they’re pretty much never worth what their agents sucker at least 1 GM into paying for (on the grounds that he’s paying his manager darn good $$$ just for jobs like this, never mind that the player’s previous – and equally qualified – managers couldn’t manage to do so).
When said cancer is playing awfully, You.Have.To.Dump.Him. Now. However. If all 29 other team’s think he’s that useless, then yes, cut him.
re: Josh Smith
Great work. Ramirez needs out of left in the worst way. I have never seen such awful defense. As a lifelong Sox fan it’s hard to admit that it’s time for Ortiz to go too. However, it is that time. Hanley can hit. DH is made for him now. No one is going to trade for him and take on a healthy part of that deal. Remember the Dodgers did NOTHING to keep him at all. I doubt interest has grown at all. Even if Panda was producing at the rate he normally has in the past he is still wildly overpaid in my opinion. clearly needs a platoon partner. If Ortiz were to retire or fail that physical I’m sure you can resign Napoli on the cheap considering he’s struggled this year as well. I’d like to see them keep him around. I don’t feel he’s done and he sees a ton of pitches per plate appearance. As far as the pitching goes, it may be time to utilize some active patience. I agree that these guy have some upside and it will more than likely improve, but maybe something needs done. Pitching should not be this awful with Farrell as manager.They need an upgrade there. Just one. I’m not sure who though.
Is Hanley worse at LF than Ortiz is at 1b? Ortiz at 1st is always an option.
Definitely. Hanley is perhaps the worst defensive LF in recent history. Ortiz is below average at 1B but not horrible.
Ortiz at 1B doesn’t seem horrible, but I think that’s mainly because people only see him there a handful of games every year. A full season of Ortiz at 1B is something else entirely.
And then there’s the considerable risk of injury inherent in having a hefty 39-year-old play the field.
Ortiz at 1B is not really an option.
I had a long response typed out that I mistakenly vanquished into the depths of the internet, but basically, as a Red Sox fan, all of the moves they made in the off-season truly demoralized me as a fan. The thought of a future lineup that included:
Castillo/JBJ/Margot
Moncada/Chavis X Pedey Devers
Swihart/Vazquez
with Rodriguez, Owens, Johnson and the likes on the staff is now locked in the back of my mind. It seemed like the offseason acquisitions were not fully-fledged, and that the Red Sox have effectively blocked out the sun for several of their prospects who were so close to the show. I have been highly disappointed in the front office.
-Although it has been incredibly nice to be able to watch the young talent that has presented itself.
really seems like despite Ben’s data-driven unemotional reputation, this offseason was reactive rather than proactive.
and over reactive at that.
got outbid for Abreu/Puig…..rushed out and destroyed the bidding for two much lesser performing Cubans in castillo and moncada.
misjudged the Lester situation….rushed out and handed porcello and miley hefty extensiins sight unseen.
had an awful year offensively…..rushed out and signed two of the best available bats without actually seeing if they were good fits or even that good bats.
just seemed like instead of targeting players that really fit even if they cost a bit of a premium, ben just took what the market dictated….and didn’t even manage to get bargain prices even then.
I agree completely. it still still boggles the mind (and everyone elses it seems) that they would sign both. OK, sign Hanley, I’ll deal with it, but then sign Panda on top of that?
I loved the Hanley deal for them.
The Panda deal was terrible from the start.
I saw it the opposite. Panda has always have good defensive value. SHer that hits from both sides. Doesn’t K a lot. Add Fenway effect. And I thought it was only a slight overpay.
I never understood the Hanley deal with assuming he’d just be fine in LF. That seemed bizarre from the beginning. I think that I was expecting a Napoli trade and Hanley to 1B but that never happened.
I assumed that the Hanley deal was for him at 3B when they signed him, and he only got pushed to left by the Sandoval signing.
Also, Sandoval has declined offensively in each of the last three seasons, has a terrible body that almost certainly won’t age well, and his defensive prowess has been massively overstated, considering his career UZR/150 of 1.2 at 3B.
Moncada’s not an overpay. I’d kill to have gotten him.
well, except we can’t know that. our info is 2nd hand scouting reports from non-game situations. we do know that the red sox paid a good deal more than most anyone else thought he was worth…and theirvrecent track record in these valuations is questionable.
far too early to panic but the silence around moncada this year has been deafening. him staying a looong time in extended was eyebrow raising…..and now his dreadful initial performance in games has to be concerning.
when you pay this much for a 20yr old prospect you expect him to be a fast riser and in mlb contention by the end of next year at the latest. you don’t expect him to be on a normal prospect path starting at an age appropriate 20 in low A being 3-4yrs away.
and you DEFINITELY don’t expect him to look completely out of his depth even in low A.
kid better pick it up soon or that deafening silence is gonna get broken by some angry criticism.
Eh, the Yankees and Dodgers were in the same neighborhood. The Dodgers are just planning on going big this summer, and the Yankees apparently completely cocked up their negotiations.
He was more expensive than most teams could afford, not than most teams thought he was worth.
The kid is 20 years old, and hadn’t played organized ball in a long while when he was signed. I think he’ll be fine.
I was confused by the moves as well. I think the root of it was that Cherington thought he had to make some big splashes on MLB talent to reassure the fan base after the disaster season last season. Of course, the best way to do that would have been to simply re-sign Lester, but alas…
Way too early to count out the Red Sox–particularly if you take the position that the team will be poor both short and intermediate-term. I don’t believe it–there’s plenty of talent, just a little under-organized and somewhat under-performing, They need to reshuffle the pieces somewhat, and the Ortiz situation is very difficult to reconcile. They cant’t trade Ortiz, and he’s certainly not going to want to stop playing with 500 so close. He believes in his own HOF destiny. If he really can’t hit anymore (and I’m not convinced of that) then the Red Sox need to do what the Yankees didn’t do with Jeter–ease him back and try to put him in positions where he has the best chance of succeeding.
wow, if Bud Black can be fired, Farrell should have been canned weeks ago…
While I agree patience with the pitching staff (even 20 mil a year patience with Porcello) will pay off but the lack of an ace is a real tough ting to watch considering sox fans can’t necessarily count on that one shutout game very five days . Not to mention, while Farell has been a fairly experimental manager and it’s not exactly paid off, Miley has no right to jaw off to him when he’s in the tank nearly every start. Miley’s gotta go faster than Ortiz does imo
My bad didn’t mean to reply
The $400+ million outlay to acquire Craig, Castillo, Ramirez, Sandoval and Masterson, along wither the extensions to Miley and Porcello are baffling. You would have thought they learned their lesson from the Punto trade. But it seems that the organizational philosophy remains the same since Theo days. A massive infusion of cash to jumpstart the next great Red Sox team, supplemented by the maturation of prospects. It worked in after 05 and 06 to build the 07/08 teams, but has now failed twice.
While I agree patience with the pitching staff (even 20 mil a year patience with Porcello) will pay off but the lack of an ace is a real tough ting to watch considering sox fans can’t necessarily count on that one shutout game very five days . Not to mention, while Farell has been a fairly experimental manager and it’s not exactly paid off, Miley has no right to jaw off to him when he’s in the tank nearly every start. Miley’s gotta go faster than Ortiz does imo
This team has been a disappointment, no doubt.
But a modest upgrade could be had with a few small tweaks.
Napoli traded (for almost nothing I presume).
Hanram at 1b, he is an infielder and can’t be worse, plus less chance for injuries. Let’s not forget how amazing he hit in April before he got hurt.
Roosney Castillo to left, Jackie Bradley Jr in right.
OF defense just goes through the roof.
This team’s real problem has been the slow development of some young players, Bogaerts and Betts are still both 22 and were brought up too young and have struggled. Let’s see what they develop into.
How has Betts struggled exactly? He has 2.9 WAR in his first 113 MLB games, even with a .250 BABIP in his 61 games this season. I will take that from a 21-22 year old prospect every single time.
I don’t think Betts has struggled considering his age – but I think it’s pretty fair to say he has underwhelmed compared to projections to begin the season. This is particularly true given his poor offensive performance to date (and I don’t disagree that some of it is luck, though I think the baseline for his hitting from last year was too short to establish an expected babip), and the fact his WAR total is really based on defensive performance which is subject to small sample size stability issues. Again, we’re not even half the season through. Mookie might end up with a 120 rc+ by the end of the year or might even be sent back down to AAA.
The real problem with Red Sox prospects and really all prospects now (damn you Mike Trout) is how a half season or even a full season when they initially come up is overemphasized in future projections. Xander is a good example of a guy who came up and raked and then slumped and was consequently somewhat dismissed to begin the season. Now he’s streaking with the bat and red sox fans are excited about having the best ss in the AL. That might be true – but he’s young and a streaky hitter – it’s not going to be surprising when he slumps again and sox fans start complaining that he hasn’t a clue at the plate like they were earlier this year. This isn’t just endemic to the sox though – every fanbase does it (see Javier Baez, Jesus Montero, Profar or Bauer). In the red sox case though, their fortunes hinged on a number of different young players doing well this year. There are other teams like that (Astros, Cubs, Mets) and they’ll all experience the same growing pains.
Man, Mookie has been stinking it up with the bat. A bit too passive IMO.
But i do understand he has positive value due to his fielding, etc.
Guess all the skeptics/complainers were right about holding the brakes on FG mookiemania.
How many more last place finishes before people, all people everywhere, come to the realization that Ben Cherington is simply over his head as an MLB general manager, and the magical 2013 post-season doesn’t change that fact?
I say three more — not counting 2015.
You know it’s scary when I trust Ortiz at 1B more than Hanley.
Ortiz will probably still play next year to get to 500. Hanley can not play any position defensively…Possibly 3B like he did with LA, but that’s it. Put him at 1st and he’ll drop the simplest passes.
Sandoval is in the same rut; horrible defense. It’s pathetic seeing the Giants get the better end of the deal. I don’t like Sandoval playing 1B either if he bobbles everything.
But regardless Napoli is definitely gone, so is Victorino…And Masterson (No, him and his 88 MPH fastball can stay out of the BP thanks). If Nava decides to stay in this unfathomable slump so is he. All of a sudden we don’t have an OF. Craig, JBJ, and Brentz are never going to be major league worthy, which means they’ll probably just spend the next several years in Pawtucket unless they decide to use their brains and trash them. This leaves Castillo and Betts, 2 more massive disappointments.
I don’t want to wait 8 years for our irrelevant Single A “legends” to get promoted and then perform average at best.
We’re stuck with all these tumors, period. And Porcello’s ridiculous extension that never should’ve happened. Ownership is in way over their head.
Wow, you really believe they all are what they’re showing now???
Seems to me like they don’t care at all, sure.
But, but….the position adjustments say a SS should have no problem to move to LF. Hanley should be at least a league average LF’er they say.
Red Sox can’t be sellers, they must be buyers. Why?. If they finish in last place again it will be 3 times in 4 years they have done so. They will have missed the playoffs in 5 of 6 years. This all with the 2nd largest payroll in a league when 1/3 of teams make the playoffs.
Sure they won in 2013 thanks to the Dodgers gift of taking on their large contracts and everyone exceeding expectations with the highest BABIP in MLB since 1930 but the Fenway faithful pay the highest ticket prices in baseball and another August/September of meaningless baseball (similar to the mid 60’s) won’t be tolerated w/o big drops in attendance, ratings and revenue in 2016. Henry has to be a buyer and get this team back in the race, unless he is too busy watching Liverpool play soccer.
What happens to Ortiz’s options if he’s released? Do they go away or do they automatically vest?
As for Hanley, if they want to try to motivate him, shouldn’t they just bench him until he demonstrates that he gives a crap? He’s basically replacement level, so there’s no real performance cost.
I think they’re afraid to take his bat out of the lineup, honestly.
Q: So, which contract was the biggest overpay?
A: All of them.
The way forward? Replace John Farrell with Will Ferrell. Replace Ben Cherington with Bear, Paddington.
Isn’t the easy non-panic solution to all this to platoon Napoli and Ortiz (Napoli can’t hit righties/Ortiz can’t hit lefties) at DH, move Sandoval to 1B (where he has 63 games of experience so it isn’t entirely foreign), move Ramirez to 3B then roll with an OF of Betts-Castillo-Holt/de Aza until Victorino is healthy?
I don’t disagree, but that’s where Farrell’s ability (or inability) to manage men and their personalities comes into play.
The platooning of Nap & Papi would represent a sort of demotion for each, as would the shifting of Panda to the cold corner. Plus hasn’t Hanley expressed his distaste for returning to the infield?
This is exactly the situation that calls for managerial skills, the big managerial skills that could turn a team in the right direction — much more than the tactical in-game grey-area managerial minutiae we scrutinize and even occasionally obsess over so often as fans.
So how does this dumpster fire get fixed? Let’s look at some culprits. First, if Cherington is so stupid that he brought in Panda, Miley, Masterson, and Porcello, then he deserves to go right now. But the Hanley move I like. You can deal with one guy like that (see Ramirez, Manny), and he still has trade value. But LF? Really? If this was all Ben’s doing, he should be fired and never get another front office job in baseball. But it seems to me is that this was all about marketing, about two last place finishes in 3 years. And this is why I think this part is about Larry having John Henry’s ear, with Ben being a mere sock puppet. These deals reek of Lucchino. It reeks of marketing to the pink-hatters. Ease Lucchino out of the player personnel decisions, and let’s see what Ben can do. If he in fact turns out to be inept, he’s gone.
Second, Farrell. He should go NOW. Why? Well, he’s clearly lost control of the club (it probably happened mid-2014), they don’t respect him, and they certainly don’t play for him. Not to mention, he’s simply not a good manager. Case in point – leaving Rodriguez in the game in the 4th inning Sunday. Was he getting hammered? No, but you could see he was frustrated, and that led to a HR that broke the game open. And bringing him out for the 5th? Inexcusable. This is a young kid trying to establish himself. Despite his early success, he’s fragile. Farrell should have gotten him out of there in the 4th and protected him. You leave a veteran ace out there for the 4th and 5th, not a promising rookie. Him you protect. No excuse for what Farrell did. In fact, leaving him out thee probably hurts his development going forward, and they need this guy. Aside from that, why have him (or Betts and Swihart) around at all while the team circles the drain? What’s he learning? A bad attitude? Check. How to be dysfunctional? Check. How to bail on interviews after the game, leaving the young guys holding the bag? Check. Anyway, the 4th and 5th innings are a microcosm of why Farrell should go. Now. Will a new manager save the season? Probably not, but we’ll never know unless they axe Farrell. And there’s always the chance of Morgan Magic. It’s a 1% chance, but that’s more than they have now.
Finally, the players. Get what you can for everyone that was brought in. Seriously. I can deal with a mediocre ballclub, IF they hustle, try, and play the game hard. These guys don’t. Ask yourself, what would Bill Belichick do? He’s been successful because he cuts dead weight while they still have value to someone else. He reinvents his roster! As Branch Rickey said, it’s better to trade a guy a year too early than a year too late. How’d that work out for the Dodgers? Rickey, like Belichick, was a cold-blooded judge of talent and a master of nurturing what talent he had. Too bad the Sox don’t have a man in charge like either of those guys.
I agree with the ownership ideas. Seems like a pattern: Theo builds team and minor league system, wins (see: Chicago Cubs). Ownership thinks – that doesn’t seem so hard and signs Gonzalez and Crawford, etc. results: no balance, lots of losing. Team rebuilds on minors/youth, feels pressure after flopping as the defending champ, and then panic-signs two big hitters and spends a lot on a blah pitcher. Results: no balance, lots of losing. What HAS been consistent? Henry and Lucchino. Anyone who thought Hanley would 1) play hard in LF, and 2) hustle for a losing team wasn’t paying attention forever. Weren’t there concerns about this when he was with the Sox originally? Now Papi and Panda don’t hustle and the kids follow along. Team is out together like a 12-y-o’s video game team.
Daily reminder that the Red Sox are worse than the Dbacks but no one will acknowledge it