Lou Whitaker Belongs in Cooperstown
This post is part of a series concerning the 2020 Modern Baseball Era Committee ballot, covering executives and long-retired players whose candidacies will be voted upon at the Winter Meetings in San Diego on December 8. It is adapted from a longer version included in The Cooperstown Casebook, published in 2017 by Thomas Dunne Books. For an introduction to JAWS, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball-Reference version unless otherwise indicated.
| Player | Career WAR | Peak WAR | JAWS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lou Whitaker | 75.1 | 37.9 | 56.5 |
| Avg. HOF 2B | 69.4 | 44.4 | 56.9 |
| H | HR | AVG/OBP/SLG | OPS+ |
| 2369 | 244 | .276/.363/.426 | 117 |
Lou Whitaker made baseball look easy. No less a writer than Roger Angell marveled over his “ball-bearing smoothness afield and remarkable hand-speed at bat.” But to some, the ease with which the game came to the Tigers’ longtime second baseman suggested that he lacked effort, hard work, or passion for the game, and it didn’t help that Whitaker wasn’t one for self-promotion. He let his performance do the talking, and for the better part of his 19 seasons in the majors, that performance spoke volumes. A top-of-the-lineup spark plug and an outstanding defender, he paired with Alan Trammell to form the longest-running double-play combination in history. He earned All-Star honors five times and won three Gold Gloves along the way, solid totals that nonetheless undersell his contributions.
Whitaker retired one year before Trammell did, and thus reached the BBWAA Hall of Fame ballot a year earlier. Shockingly, a player hailed as a potential Hall of Famer during his career received just 2.9% in 2001, which ruled him out from further consideration by the writers and prevented his inclusion on Veterans Committee or Expansion Era Committee ballots during the remaining 14 years that he could have been on the writers’ ballot. Trammell wasn’t elected by the BBWAA either, but after spending 15 years on the ballot, he and longtime Tigers teammate Jack Morris were tabbed by the Modern Baseball Era Committee in 2018, the first living ex-players elected to the Hall by any small-committee process since 2001. Their eligibility raised Whitaker’s profile, and this year, for the first time, he’s on a committee ballot as well. That doesn’t guarantee his election, but based upon the weight of his accomplishments, the honor is long overdue.
Though he was born in Brooklyn in 1957, Whitaker grew up in Martinsville, Virginia, a rural town of about 20,000 people, in a house full of 16 family members who spanned three generations. His mother, Marion Arlene Williams, had left Brooklyn and Lou’s father behind while pregnant with Lou’s younger sister. “My daddy is a first-class New York pimp,” Whitaker said in 1979, explaining that he never knew Louis Rodman Whitaker Sr. He grew up in such poverty that his family couldn’t afford orthopedic help when his legs grew crooked, “[s]o his uncles twisted and turned them inward every day.”
Whitaker’s legs straightened out, and he developed prowess on the diamond, impressing scouts with his hands and arm strength while at Martinsville High School, where he played third base and even pitched. On the advice of former All-Star infielder Billy Jurges, then a scout, the Tigers drafted him in the fifth round in 1975. After struggling at shortstop and third base in Rookie ball, Whitaker played exclusively at the hot corner in 1976, his age-19 season. Managed by future Tigers skipper Jim Leyland, he earned Florida State League MVP honors on the strength of a .297/.376/.355 performance with 48 stolen bases. In the Instructional League that fall, he met Trammell, the team’s 1976 second-round pick, and began a conversion to second base. The tandem took groundballs together for 30 days in a row, and clicked so well that Tigers general manager Jim Campbell, who promised the pair sports coats at the end of the season, bought them three-piece suits instead.
The pair roomed together at Double-A Montgomery in 1977, where Trammell won Southern League MVP honors. Whitaker took to his new position and hit .280/.374/.356 with 38 steals. “We went out to eat together every day, we talked baseball everyday and we grew together for 19 years,” said Whitaker in 2015.
Promoted to the majors when Montgomery’s season ended, the pair debuted in the nightcap of a September 9 doubleheader against the Red Sox, the first of their 1,918 games together. They joined 1974 first-round pick Lance Parrish, a catcher who had debuted earlier that week; the trio would form the backbone of the Tigers lineup for the next nine years.
Manager Ralph Houk started the rookie double play combo on Opening Day in 1978, but spent the first quarter of the season platooning them with a more experienced, less talented tandem, Steve Dillard and Mark Wagner. By late May, the training wheels were off, and the duo played daily. Whitaker hit .285/.361/.357 for a 101 OPS+ while playing defense that was 10 runs above average en route to 3.8 WAR. He beat out the Brewers’ Paul Molitor for AL Rookie of the Year honors, while Trammell tied for fourth. The Tigers, who had gone 74-88 in 1977, and hadn’t been above .500 since 1973, won 86 games, the first of 11 straight winning seasons.
Whitaker improved to .286/.395/.378 for a 108 OPS+ in 1979, stealing 20 bases (a mark that would stand as a career high) in 30 attempts, and again played strong defense en route to 4.5 WAR. He struggled the following season, hitting .233/.331/.283, as manager Sparky Anderson, who had taken the reins in mid-June 1979, moved him from the number two spot to leadoff to offset the loss of speedster Ron LeFlore in free agency. The experiment was abandoned in early June. Whitaker couldn’t salvage his season after being dropped to the ninth spot, but did rebound (.263/.340/.373) in the strike-shortened 1981 season.
In his first four full seasons, Whitaker had totaled just 12 home runs, but his power emerged in 1982, when hitting coach Gates Brown taught him to pull the ball more often, and he took to the leadoff spot using a more aggressive approach than he had tried before. He led off the Tigers’ half of the first inning with a home run four times, and set career highs with 15 homers and 22 doubles en route to a .286/.341/.434 showing and 5.4 WAR. After the season, he signed a five-year, $3 million extension, giving him the second-highest average annual salary of any second baseman besides Bobby Grich ($800,000 per year).
At age 26, Whitaker put together a career year in 1983, hitting .320/.380/.457 for a 133 OPS+ with 12 homers and 17 steals; his 206 hits ranked third in the league, his 40 doubles seventh, his 6.7 WAR fifth. He made his first All-Star team and won his first of three straight Gold Gloves. Though his overall numbers took a step back in 1984 (4.3 WAR, 112 OPS+), he and the Tigers stormed to a 35-5 start en route to a 104-win season and their first world championship since 1968. While Trammell earned World Series MVP honors against the Padres, Whitaker hit .278/.409/.389 and scored six runs in the five games, three of them in the opening frame as the Tigers struck first.
The champagne had barely dried when, 10 days into spring training in 1985, Anderson temporarily broke up his double play combo by moving Whitaker back to third base to accommodate rookie Chris Pittaro, a switch-hitting 23-year-old who had spent the previous year in Double-A. Whitaker gave his blessing to the change, but reversed his decision a week later; while Pittaro got off to a hot start at third base in April, by June he was in the minors, more or less for good. Spring training aside, Whitaker never played a defensive inning anywhere but second base in his entire major league career.
Though not quite as valuable as Trammell, whose defense at that stage was stronger, Whitaker was remarkably consistent from 1984-87, hitting a combined .275/.350/.432 for a 113 OPS+ while averaging 18 homers, 10 steals, and 4.2 WAR per year, ranging from 3.6 to 4.5 annually. He was elected to start three All-Star Games (1984-86) and made the fourth as a reserve. The 1985 game produced one of the funniest moments of his career. After Whitaker left a bag containing equipment and at least part of his uniform in his car, he had to scramble, borrowing a glove from Cal Ripken Jr., finding an Indians batting helmet, and resorting to a mesh-back adjustable Tigers cap and generic replica jersey from a souvenir stand at the Metrodome. A clubhouse attendant hastily stenciled his number 1 on the back of the ill-fitting jersey, which wound up in the Smithsonian.
In 1987, the Tigers won 98 games and — thanks to an 0-7 skid by the Blue Jays to end the season, the last three losses at the hands of Detroit — another AL East title. Alas, they were steamrolled by the 85-win Twins in the ALCS, losing four games to one. Whitaker went 3-for-17, his solo homer off Bert Blyleven in a Game 2 loss going for naught. His fine 1988 season (.275/.376/.419 for a 127 OPS+, his highest since 1983) ended in early September, when he tore cartilage in his right knee while dancing with his wife at a party. “We were doing a fast dance and I did the splits,” he said. “The first time, nothing happened. The second time I went down, I heard it pop.” The Tigers, clinging to first place but already skidding in the absence of an injured Trammell, went 13-14 the rest of the way, and finished second behind the Red Sox by one game.
It was an embarrassing end to the season, and over the winter, Whitaker drew criticism for his declining batting averages and the perception of his work ethic. His critics did have a point in that his once-adequate performance against left-handers had dipped from .261/.339/.342 for 1977-83 to .224/.297/.315 from 1984-88. But in a March 1989 article in the Toledo Blade, Anderson defended Whitaker when asked if he would accomplish more if he had the habits and hustle of Trammell. “Nobody will ever know for sure,” said the manager. “Change him and he might not be as good. Everything looks so easy when he does it. He’s got the most talent on the club. The most talent.”
Whitaker chafed at having to wait for a contract extension after the team signed Trammell to a three-year extension that winter; he still had one more year under his current deal. He also took umbrage at the “Sweet Lou” nickname, telling reporters, “Winners don’t smile, man. There’s a time to have fun, there’s a time to be serious. Guys that say I’m distant or aloof, that’s a real compliment. They don’t need to see me laughing.”
Whitaker’s 1989 bounce back traded batting average for power; he set career highs of 28 homers and 85 RBI while hitting .251/.361/.462 with 5.3 WAR. In mid-season, he finally signed a three-year, $6 million extension. His season was a bright spot amid dreadful years by Trammell, Morris and others that led to the Tigers’ worst record (59-103) since 1975. After a solid 1990 performance (107 OPS+, +10 defense, 3.8 WAR), he followed with one of his best seasons on both sides of the ball, hitting .279/.391/.489 with 23 homers for a career-best 141 OPS+ and strong glovework (+11 runs) en route to 6.7 WAR, tying his career high, and fourth-best in the AL — strong work for a 34-year-old.
Though his defense would quickly decline, Whitaker maintained that power even amid dwindling playing time over his final four seasons. Helped by a reduced workload against lefties (accounting for 10-20% of his PA instead of his typical 30-35%), he hit a combined .289/.389/.475 for a 131 OPS+ from 1992-95, averaging 14 homers in 419 plate appearances and reaching milestones that cued talk of Cooperstown. “When discussing possible Hall of Famers, don’t forget Tiger second baseman Lou Whitaker,” wrote Sports Illustrated’s Tim Kurjian in 1992. “He recently became the only second baseman other than Joe Morgan to play 2,000 games, hit 200 homers and collect 2,000 hits.”
“If history is any gauge, Lou Whitaker will be enshrined in the Hall of Fame one day,” wrote the AP’s Harry Atkins in 1993, as Whitaker approached 1,000 RBI. “I don’t think about baseball history,” said Whitaker. “I’ve never been to a library or bought a book on baseball history.”
At the end of the 1992 season, Whitaker and Trammell both reached free agency for the first time, but new owner Mike Illich ensured they remained in Detroit. The Braves and Orioles courted Whitaker, but the Tigers ultimately retained him with a three-year, $10 million deal. By mid-1994, he suggested that he would retire upon completing his contract in 1995.
Though Whitaker was the first Tiger to officially report to spring training upon the settlement of the players’ strike, a shoulder strain prevented him from playing until May 12, his 38th birthday. While he hit a robust .293/.372/.518 in 285 PA, he played sparingly as the season dwindled, starting just eight times apiece at second base and DH after August 12; similarly, Trammell rode the pine frequently, and Anderson looked to the end of the line, either via retirement or firing. In September, Whitaker and Trammell played their 1,915th game together, breaking the AL record held by George Brett and Frank White, trailing only the Cubs’ Ron Santo and Billy Williams (2,015, since broken by Jeff Bagwell and Craig Biggio with 2,029).
With the team closing the season on the road, and with minds not made up about retirement, Trammell asked Tigers management not to hold any special ceremonies to honor the combo for their September 23 Tiger Stadium farewell. Though heartily received by the sparse crowd of 14,083, the team found themselves on the wrong end of a 13-1 blowout by the Orioles. Starter Mike Mussina, who cruised along, instructed catcher Chris Hoiles to tell the pair to look for nothing but fastballs. “I was trying,” Mussina said, smiling, “to throw them as skillfully as I could down the middle.” Both players made outs, however. After sitting for a week, they made one-inning cameos in Baltimore on the season’s final day. Whitaker mulled signing elsewhere, but retired, while Trammell returned for one final year.
…
Via excellent health and prolonged productivity, Whitaker ranks high on several leaderboards specific to second basemen. His 2,308 games at the position rank fourth, behind Eddie Collins (2,650), Joe Morgan (2,527), and relative newcomer Roberto Alomar (2,320). Of the top 16, 11 are in the Hall, with Willie Randolph (2,152), Frank White (2,151), Robinson Canó (2,124), and Jeff Kent (2,034) the other outsiders. Among players who spent the majority of their careers at second base, Whitaker’s 2,369 hits ranks 14th, more than any of them outside the Hall besides Canó (2,570) and Kent (2,461). His 239 homers while playing second (the strict split, not counting his homers as DH or pinch-hitting), are ninth, with Kent (351) first.
He’s not quite as high-ranking in rate stats, but still impressive. Using a 7,000 plate appearance minimum, Whitaker’s .363 on-base percentage ranks 15th, and his .426 slugging percentage 19th. His 117 OPS+ is in a virtual tie with Chase Utley for 11th, with Larry Doyle, Grich, the still-active Canó (all 125) and Kent (123) the only outsiders ahead of him.
Still, on the traditional front, Whitaker’s resumé feels a bit light. Beyond the Rookie of the Year award, his three Gold Gloves, and five All-Star selections is a lack of black ink and meager postseason numbers (two playoff teams and a .204/.350/.306 line in 61 PA). His modest 92 on the Hall of Fame Monitor, a metric where a score of 100 represents “a good possibility” for election, foreshadowed his uphill battle.
The advanced metrics approximate Whitaker’s standing in rate stats: 12th among second basemen in batting runs (209), seventh in baserunning and double play avoidance runs (48), 15th in fielding runs (77). It’s the combination of offense and defense that’s his true selling point. He’s the only second baseman besides Jackie Robinson who’s at least 200 runs above average at bat, 50 above average in the field, and 25 above average on the bases, and one of just 11 such players at any position:
| Player | Years | Rbat | Rfield | Rbase+DP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barry Bonds | 1986-2007 | 1129 | 175 | 50 | 162.8 |
| Willie Mays | 1951-1973 | 809 | 185 | 69 | 156.4 |
| Hank Aaron | 1954-1976 | 877 | 98 | 33 | 143.0 |
| Honus Wagner | 1897-1917 | 637 | 85 | 34 | 130.8 |
| Rickey Henderson | 1979-2003 | 555 | 65 | 148 | 111.2 |
| Roberto Clemente | 1955-1972 | 376 | 205 | 31 | 94.5 |
| Al Kaline | 1953-1974 | 471 | 153 | 26 | 92.8 |
| Lou Whitaker | 1977-1995 | 209 | 77 | 48 | 75.1 |
| Larry Walker | 1989-2005 | 420 | 94 | 50 | 72.7 |
| Jackie Robinson | 1947-1956 | 261 | 81 | 35 | 61.4 |
| J.D. Drew | 1998-2011 | 208 | 69 | 26 | 44.9 |
For as well-rounded a player as Whitaker was, it’s fair to suggest that he got a raw deal in terms of recognition. Just one of his top five seasons in terms of WAR (4.7 or more), and two of his top seven (4.5 or more), resulted in All-Star selections. Ten times he ranked either first or second among AL second basemen in WAR, but five of those times, he didn’t make the All-Star team. For example, he missed out on being selected during his 5.4 WAR 1983, while Grich and Frank White (3.7) played for the AL; likewise during his 5.3 WAR 1989, when Julio Franco (5.3) and Steve Sax (4.4) played, and during his 6.8 WAR 1991, when Alomar (4.6) played the whole game and Franco (6.2) rode the pine. While WAR didn’t exist at the time, we can now see how glaring some of those omissions were.
Whitaker’s career WAR is the seventh-highest of any position player outside the Hall, and second among those up for a vote this year:
| Rk | Player | Years | From | To | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barry Bonds* | 1986-2007 | 1986 | 2007 | 162.8 |
| 2 | Alex Rodriguez+ | 1994-2016 | 1994 | 2016 | 117.8 |
| 3 | Albert Pujols+ | 2001-2019 | 2001 | 2019 | 100.3 |
| 4 | Adrian Beltre+ | 1998-2018 | 1998 | 2018 | 95.6 |
| 5 | Pete Rose | 1963-1986 | 1963 | 1986 | 79.7 |
| 6 | Bill Dahlen | 1891-1911 | 1891 | 1911 | 75.4 |
| 7 | Lou Whitaker** | 1977-1995 | 1977 | 1995 | 75.1 |
| 8 | Larry Walker* | 1989-2005 | 1989 | 2005 | 72.7 |
| 9 | Mike Trout+ | 2011-2019 | 2011 | 2019 | 72.5 |
| 10 | Derek Jeter* | 1995-2014 | 1995 | 2014 | 72.4 |
| 11 | Rafael Palmeiro | 1986-2005 | 1986 | 2005 | 71.9 |
| 12 | Bobby Grich | 1970-1986 | 1970 | 1986 | 71.1 |
| 13 | Scott Rolen* | 1996-2012 | 1996 | 2012 | 70.2 |
| 14 | Miguel Cabrera+ | 2003-2019 | 2003 | 2019 | 69.6 |
| 15 | Robinson Canó+ | 2005-2019 | 2005 | 2019 | 69.6 |
| 16 | Carlos Beltran+ | 1998-2017 | 1998 | 2017 | 69.6 |
| 17 | Manny Ramirez* | 1993-2011 | 1993 | 2011 | 69.4 |
| 18 | Kenny Lofton | 1991-2007 | 1991 | 2007 | 68.3 |
| 19 | Graig Nettles | 1967-1988 | 1967 | 1988 | 68.0 |
| 20 | Dwight Evans** | 1972-1991 | 1972 | 1991 | 67.1 |
Yowzah. Whitaker’s career WAR is seventh among all second basemen, behind six Hall of Famers but a healthy 6.3 WAR above the average honoree. Less robust is his 37.9 peak score, which ranks 20th, below 12 of 20 enshrined second-sackers and a substantial 6.5 wins below the standard. While very consistent, with 11 of his 18 full seasons worth between 3.5 and 4.7 WAR — somewhere between an above-average regular and an All-Star — he had just four seasons more valuable than those, and only three that cracked the AL top 10.
Taken together — the point of my system, after all — Whitaker’s 56.5 JAWS is a mere 0.4 below the standard, a negligible amount in this context, and still good for 13th, behind nine Hall of Famers, Canó, Utley, and Grich. He outranks five of the six second basemen to enter Cooperstown since his retirement: Alomar (55.0, 14th), Biggio (53.7, 15th), Joe Gordon (51.5, 16th), Nellie Fox (42.9, 23rd), and Bill Mazeroski (31.2, 51st), and is less than a point behind the sixth, Ryne Sandberg (57.5, ninth). Whitaker may lack Biggio’s 3,000 hits, Sandberg’s MVP award, the defensive reputations of Gordon, Mazeroski, and Fox (all of whom outrank him in fielding runs) or Alomar (who does not). Nonetheless, he’s a very solid Hall of Fame candidate because he did so many things so well.
Unfortunately, the BBWAA voters didn’t see it that way. Eligible on the 2001 ballot, Whitaker was lost behind other first-timers including 3,000 hit club member Dave Winfield, 10-time All-Star Kirby Puckett (whose career had been cut short by glaucoma), former teammates Parrish and Kirk Gibson, and former AL MVP Don Mattingly. In a record-setting haul of ballots (515) of just middling generosity (6.33 names per ballot), Winfield (84.5%) and Puckett (82.1%) sailed through, while holdovers Gary Carter (64.9%), Jim Rice (57.9%), Bruce Sutter (47.6%), and Goose Gossage (44.3%) made progress towards their own plaques. While Whitaker outpolled his ex-teammates, his 2.9% wasn’t even enough to remain on the ballot.
ESPN’s Jayson Stark, whose seven-man ballot included Winfield, Puckett, Carter, Sutter, Gossage, Morris and Dale Murphy, left Whitaker off, noting, “His career numbers look attractive by second-base standards. But it’s hard to remember any period when Whitaker was looked upon as the greatest second baseman of his era. ‘Just’ a very good player. There’s no shame in that.” All six of Stark’s ESPN’s colleagues with a vote — Jim Caple, Peter Gammons, Bob Klapisch, Tim Kurkjian, Sean McAdam, and Phil Rogers — bypassed him as well.
The Detroit News’ Lynn Henning, whose coverage of the Tigers extends back to when Whitaker was drafted, said in 2017, “It wasn’t that people didn’t appreciate him, but if ever I’ve seen a case where every voter figured, ‘Someone else will put him on, I’ve got other fish to fry,’ that was it — a perfect storm. I’ve never seen anything so utterly flukish in Hall of Fame voting.” To Henning, the lack of a boost from television exposure or analytics — two things that would have played in his favor in a later era — hurt him as well.
Whitaker’s exclusion cast him into a baseball purgatory, as he could not be considered by the Veterans Committee or its successors until his BBWAA eligibility period expired in 2015. Though considered for inclusion on the 2018 Modern Baseball Era Committee ballot, he missed the final cut, but his absence didn’t go unnoticed, particularly as his former teammates made the ballot on their first try. Said BBWAA secretary-treasurer Jack O’Connell, a member of the 11-person Historical Overview Committee that assembled the ballot:
“There was no decision not to include Lou Whitaker…. His career was discussed along with many others, but he did not get sufficient support to make the ballot. There were quite a few other players from that era who might have been worthy of inclusion, but we were limited to 10. This does not mean Whitaker or anyone else who did not make the ballot will be excluded forever.”
Upon being elected, Trammell said, “It’s never going to change that Lou and I are going to be linked forever, as we should. My dream now is, at least in two more years, that Lou gets on the ballot and at some point and time he makes it.”
The first part of Trammell’s dream as come true. At last, Whitaker is on the ballot, no small triumph given that the likes of Grich (who also failed to receive 5% in his only appearance) and Keith Hernandez (who lasted nine years but only twice broke 10%) are absent, and that Modern Baseball ballot-mate Dwight Evans (who lasted three turns) has been waiting since 1999 for another chance. Whitaker belongs in the Hall of Fame, but while his appearance on this ballot doesn’t guarantee his election, he’s finally, rightfully in the conversation again.
Brooklyn-based Jay Jaffe is a senior writer for FanGraphs, the author of The Cooperstown Casebook (Thomas Dunne Books, 2017) and the creator of the JAWS (Jaffe WAR Score) metric for Hall of Fame analysis. He founded the Futility Infielder website (2001), was a columnist for Baseball Prospectus (2005-2012) and a contributing writer for Sports Illustrated (2012-2018). He has been a recurring guest on MLB Network and a member of the BBWAA since 2011, and a Hall of Fame voter since 2021. Follow him on BlueSky @jayjaffe.bsky.social.
I think the Trammel narrative will help enormously now because everyone loves a good story like Tinker to Evans to Chance
“For example, he missed out on being selected during his 5.4 WAR 1983,”
I think you mean 1982. He was on the team in 1983.
Fixed, thanks.
You don’t have Larry Walker listed as on a BBWAA ballot in the table
I don’t think it’s a big surprise that Whitaker did so poorly in the HOF voting. He’s the classic case of the guy who did lots of things well but none of them outstanding. And those types almost always do poorly in HOF voting.
-He hit for a decent batting average but wasn’t contending for batting titles
-He stole a few bases but never more than 20 in a single season
-He drew walks but only had two seasons in the top 10
-He had some power, but 4 seasons between 20-28 home runs is nothing to write home about
-He was a plus fielder at an important defensive position but it’s not like he was the Ozzie Smith of second baseman
-As Jay mentioned, he never led the league in anything (other than games one time) and most of his top-ten finishes tended to be between 7th-10th
In the end, he had no calling card. His case required more reflection and analysis. And some of the tools that help his case simply weren’t available at the time.
Ditto what emh1969 said.
Utley will be a very similar case as well.
I don’t think it is a coincidence they are both 2B.
Excellent perspective and summary.
Typo here: ” ranging from 3.6 to 4.5 annually.” I know you mean WAR but I’m also sure you meant to write it.
“…and 4.2 WAR per year, ranging from 3.6 to 4.5 annually.”
Perfectly clear if you include the clause before it. No need to write WAR again.
“He’s the only second baseman besides Jackie Robinson who’s at least 200 runs above average at bat, 50 above average in the field, and 25 above average on the bases, and one of just 11 such players at any position”
I really hate these. Pick some lower bounds where player X qualifies and compare to everyone above that. The 300+ HR and 300+ SB club is my go-to example:
By offensive value Barry Bonds, A-Rod and Mays are inner circle HoFers
Carlos Beltran, Bobby Bonds and Andre Dawson are all solid-to-fringe HoFers based on their career offense
Reggie Sanders and Steve Finley’s offense doesn’t getting them within sniffing distance of HoF standards, but they are on the same list as a couple of legendary offensive players!
“10-time All-Star Kirby Puckett (whose career had been cut short by glaucoma),”
Granted, he was already into his decline years at that point. I grabbed all players who through age 32 (Puckett’s last significantly above average year), who were +/- 10% as far as PA, wRC+ and fWAR rate (n=19) and on average they put up 8.1 fWAR for the rest of their careers.
The top six of those 19 were individually above the sample average; they collectively averaged 18.9 fWAR ages 33 onward. If Puckett matched that, we’re looking at 58.3 fWAR. Even if he matched Paul Molitor, age 33 onward (#1 in the sample), we’re still looking at 63.4 career fWAR.
He got 82% of the votes on his first ballot and even being generous with a late career what-if, that doesn’t seem justified.
Of course, different times- this sample averaged, age 33 onward:
555 hits, 70 HR, 307 RBI and 288 R
Subtract out Puckett’s age 33-35 and add those in:
2367 hits, 212 HR, 1092 RBI, 1088 R … meh? IMO you basically have to assume he ages like Paul Molitor or Tony Gwynn or Tony Perez to get to what look like HoF numbers and just ignore the Andy Van Slyke, Matt Williams, Bill Madlock possibilities…
Given his body type, I expect he would have aged like Julio Franco.
Franco was worth 31 fWAR through age 32 and 11 afterward. If Puckett had the same ratio, he’d have finished at 53.4 fWAR.
Puckett’s decline was almost all defense. He could still hit.
And he was always going to get into the HOF. Voters of that era were enamored with high batting averages and 200+ hit seasons, Throw in lots of gold gloves, All-Star game appearances, perceived leader of two WS teams, and a likable personality (since the dark stuff hadn’t come out yet). He basically had everything that voters love.
BTW, in the second half of his final season, Puckett hit:
.347/.411/.580
I’ll take that kind of “decline” any day of the year…
This is an important point. To me at least Puckett looked like a guy who would have raked into his late 30’s. If his defense reached a point where he couldn’t field anymore the Twins would have moved Puckett to DH. I have no problem believing that Puckett would have continued to rake into his mid to late 30’s like Paul Molitor, Edgar Martinez, and David Ortiz did.
Concur, Puckett was going to do fine. He was going to get the counting stats (i.e. he definitely would have hung around for 3,000 hits) and he had narrative up the wazoo. He got the Koufax treatment when he retired, and then of course all the bad stuff came out later.
I was at Induction Weekend in 2018 in Cooperstown. Lou’s presence was felt very heavily. His induction at the time certainly felt imminent.
I’d vote him in based on that 1985 All-Star game alone! What a fun part of baseball history
The All-Star game story is a hoot, and the linked article contains assertions/examples of Whitaker being an airhead. If true (or widely believed among HOF voters), could that have affected his one and only time on the ballot?
Interesting cases in that non-HOF WAR list. Rose, Ramirez, and Palmeiro are out for obvious reasons. I have no idea who Bill Dahlen is, and don’t particularly care about any pre-integration players getting in. ARod is an enigma. I really don’t care either way about him. He’s probably too good to exclude, but he did serve a suspension for Biogenesis. Cano in the same boat. So maybe 14 out of the 20 should be elected, including Grich and Nettles who are long overdue.
Bill Dahlen is worth getting to know. His problem was mostly that he played for several teams so wasn’t championed by any of them. Also supposedly wasn’t a popular teammate.
Highest fWAR of any eligible position player not in the HOF, excepting PED cases and Rose.
His peak is not Hall of Fame. Using Baseball Reference WAR he has 5 seasons where he is top 25 in MLB rWAR among position players; with only 1 year in the top 10 plus an 11th place finish. Someone comped a lot to Whitaker is Ryne Sandberg who had 4 top 5 finishes in MLB rWAR plus an 11th and a 12th. 6 seasons of a top player. That’s a Hall of Famer (for me as a small hall person) where Whitaker (who is an excellent player) falls short.
Yes Whitaker has a career case more than a peak case
“Shockingly, a player hailed as a potential Hall of Famer during his career received just 2.9% in 2001…”
Just one guy’s experience, but I was a baseball fan for most of Whitaker’s career, and never once heard him described as a potential Hall of Famer. Which his vote total bears out. Whitaker was a great player who was thought of as a good player while he was active, but his HOF viability only became a thing when WAR went mainstream and people were (somewhat surprised) to find out he had a ton of it.
I.e., totally dig the support for his candidacy, but it was not a shock at all when he was one and done.
Yeah, I was surprised by that sentence as well. I remember Whitaker quite well and don’t remember many people thinking of him as a potential HOFer.
Even his greatness is based more on a long-track record of “very goodness”. He only has 3 seasons in the top-10 of player position WAR – a 4th, 5th, and 8th. Even guys like Jim Rice and Tony Perez had 4 such seasons. The only recent player elected by the BBWAA with only 3 Top Ten Seasons was Puckett. But even Puckett did better than Whitaker with a 1st, 2nd, and 9th.
He played second base to the score – it worked once
Same here. Having living through Whitaker’s career, I never considered him one of the best players in the game. He just wasn’t in the conversation.
I get that the HOF isn’t just about the best players, but just about every player on the fringe of being HOF-worthy now has a largely media-created story line about how they deserve to get in. Worse, arbitrary stat cut offs (“He’s the only second baseman besides Jackie Robinson who’s at least 200 runs above average at bat, 50 above average in the field, and 25 above average on the bases, and one of just 11 such players at any position”) are usually the main ammunition used as justification.
the HOF, and HOF voters, need to decide what it’s purpose is. Should it reward fame? Stats? Longevity? Lou Whitaker was a good player for a long time – that’s about all you can say about him.
There is a lot of truth in this post.
I wrote similar below. I was a baseball fan before Whitaker played a game in the majors. I never heard him discussed as a potential HOFer.
OK sure Whitaker, Grich and Utley should all be recognized. Hopefully they will be before they pass. Poor Ron Santo.
I would add Randolph to the list. He’s a step behind the other three but definitely deserves more consideration then what he received.
True. To me, the lost HOF candidates are the ones who don’t even get the Whitaker treatment of being reconsidered. That’s Randolph.
Love this series, Jay!
A fine player who was amazingly consistent (and productive) to the very end. A bit surprised his career ended when it did. I thought at the time, and even more so now, that it looked like he had a couple more years in him, even as a platoon DH bat who could also play some 2B. I wonder if there were more advanced metrics available back in ’95 if he’d have found a more welcoming free-agent market.
I feel a bit guilty saying this as I followed Whitaker’s career from the beginning, was definitely a fan, and have been sabermetrically inclined since picking up my first Bill James Abstract in 1982. That all said, I’m still a bit lukewarm on his candidacy. I certainly won’t be bothered at all if he’s elected, but his case is built on longevity and consistency of “goodness.” He gets a WAR bump due to his position and when he played. I generally like a higher peak in my HOFers. He’s benefiting now while retroactively looking at his career through the WAR lens. I do disagree with Jay’s statement that he was hailed as a HOFer during his career. I don’t remember that discussion at all, and I was not particularly surprised when he was one-and-done by the BBWAA.
As said, I’m fine if he gets in, but no matter how many words I read about why he should be elected, I still walk away questioning if he should. It all depends on what you’re looking for in a HOF candidate. To me peak and dominance are key elements.
To those questioning whether Whitaker was described as a Hall of Famer during his career: Jay cited two early-90’s instances from national writers in the article. I think that counts, and certainly his resume only improved from that time frame forward.
Some thought he deserved it before the ballot: Cal Ripken at one of those off-season dinners said he thought Trammell and Whitaker should be in the Hall of Fame.
Also an article from a baseball blog way back
http://baseballcrank.com/archives2/2000/12/baseball_hall_o_2.php
For what it’s worth, Jayson Stark put Whitaker among the best who only survived one ballot
https://www.espn.com/blog/jayson-stark/post/_/id/1051/delgado-deserved-far-better-in-hof-voting
and Jayson Stark was part of the committee putting in Morris and Trammell
https://www.cooperstowncred.com/why-jack-morris-absolutely-deserves-his-hall-of-fame-plaque/