Mariners Break the Bank, Hope Robinson Cano Defies Odds

This time around, there was no Mystery Team. Rather than reports of back room dealings or whispers of an unreported offer, this courtship was about as public as it gets. The Mariners wanted Robinson Cano, and were willing to pay a premium to get him. And with the Yankees holding firm on their offer at roughly $175 million over seven years, the Mariners convinced Cano to leave New York by simply blowing away the next best offer. The final tally, according to Enrique Rojas: $240 million over 10 years.

It’s a monster of a contract, tied for the third largest in baseball history. Alex Rodriguez has signed two contracts larger than this, and Albert Pujols signed this same contract with the Angels two years ago. The Rangers paid the Yankees to take the first A-Rod deal off their hands, the Yankees are hoping MLB helps them get out from under part of the second one, and I just rated the Pujols contract as the most untradable contract in baseball a few months back. So, yeah, the history of contracts at this level isn’t exactly flowing with reasons for optimism.

That said, there’s a difference between $240 million in 2014 and $252 million in 2001. The relative value of what you can buy for $25 million a year has changed a lot over the last decade, and relative to the contracts being signed at the time, this isn’t really at the same level of either of the first two A-Rod contracts. The Pujols comparison is more fair, since it’s just a few years old and at the same price, but noting that the Pujols deal has become a disaster does not mean that the Cano deal is bound to be a disaster too. As I wrote in my piece on the Jacoby Ellsbury signing, we can find an example of any kind of player or contract that went poorly. Simply pointing out that the Pujols contract looks like a big mistake isn’t all that helpful.

That said, we generally know how these deals work: teams take on a lot of dead money at the end of long term contracts in exchange for getting early contract AAVs that are significant bargains relative to a player’s performance. Cano, for the next 3-5 years, is likely going to be worth far more than the $24 million per year he’ll be making, and if they backload the contract, the value up is going to be shifted even more to the front. For the next few seasons, Robinson Cano is going to be a huge bargain.

And that he’s going to be a huge albatross. The last few years of this deal are going to suck for the Mariners. It’s why the Yankees drew a line in the sand at seven years; they didn’t want to pay Cano $25 million per year age ages 38-40, because they’ve witnessed the negative effects of spending huge chunks of money on near useless players, even if you have a lot of money to spend. The Yankees decided that Cano’s short term value simply wasn’t worth the long term cost. The Mariners have decided that it is.

Who is right? Well, it depends on a few things, basically.

1. At what point does Cano switch from being an asset (relative to his actual yearly salary, not his overall contract) to a liability? The Pujols deal looks so atrocious because that point was actually year two, and it doesn’t like he’ll be worth his salary in any season from here on out. The Angels got one year of value and nine years of dead weight. That sucks. We shouldn’t expect the same from Cano, though.

Steamer projects Cano to be worth +5.4 WAR in 635 plate appearances next year. If you just started at that level and then subtracted half a win per season over the next 10 years, you’d end up with a forecast of +31.5 WAR over the next 10 years. Dan Szymborski tweeted out his 10 year ZIPS projection for Cano, and it’s actually even more encouraging.

Because he’s projecting very little decline over the next three seasons, the total forecast from ZIPS is +35 WAR over those 10 years. At +32 WAR, we’d be looking at $7.5 million per win; at +35 WAR, we’re looking at $6.9 million per win. That’s actually a little less than what the Yankees paid for Jacoby Ellsbury, and pretty much in line with the average price of a win in the market this winter. From that perspective, this isn’t actually a huge overpay, relative to what other free agents are expected to produce and what they have been signing for this winter.

But, not every market value contract is a good idea for every team. That’s the second part of the calculation; can the Mariners actually extract value from Cano in the years in which he’s expected to still be a premier player? This is a team that won 71 games and were outscored by 130 runs a year ago. By my estimation, before signing Cano, they were something like the 12th best team in the American League, better only than the Twins, White Sox, and Astros. Adding Cano certainly makes them better, but it probably pushes them up to being something like the 9th best team in the AL; they are still clearly not anywhere near the level of the Red Sox, Tigers, A’s, Rangers, or Rays, and still look to be comfortably behind the Royals, Indians, and Blue Jays. They’re now comparable to the Orioles, or the Yankees before they spend any more money. Robinson Cano doesn’t turn the Mariners into a good team.

But the Mariners aren’t done either. They’ve been linked to David Price. They now have to trade Nick Franklin, since Robinson Cano just took his job, and perhaps they can ship him to a team like Kansas City, Toronto, or Atlanta for a piece of some value that could upgrade another position. And they still have money to spend, as even with Cano, they’re probably still only looking at around $60 to $65 million in payroll for 2014. If they push that towards $100 million, they could easily still sign two or three free agents to fill some of the holes on the team and make themselves a more serious contender.

But I still can’t shake the feeling that the Mariners are traveling on the path that the 2013 Royals just took. They pushed in for James Shields and Wade Davis, traded for Ervin Santana, and signed Jeremy Guthrie in order to revamp their rotation and make a run at the playoffs. They went from 72 wins to 86 wins.

It was a huge improvement. It wasn’t enough, though. They still missed the playoffs, and now they have one year left before James Shields hits free agency; if they don’t win this year, then they gave up four years of Wil Myers to just be a slightly better runner-up.

I’m not opposed to bad teams trying to get better. In fact, I’m all for teams trying to win, even if they haven’t done so lately. I don’t think you have to be good before you should spend money, or try to make yourself into a contender. I do think, however, that teams should be realistic about the probabilities of contending, and should reserve their extreme future-for-present moves until they’re at a point at which upgrading in the short term is likely to push the team into the critical area where wins are most valuable.

If the Mariners were an 83 or 84 win team and then added Robinson Cano, that would make them a pretty legitimate contender, and perhaps the short term boost of a playoff run would help justify the long term cost of signing up for dead money years at the end of this deal. But I just don’t see an 83 win team around Robinson Cano. I see four above average players — Felix Hernandez, Hisashi Iwakuma, Kyle Seager, and Brad Miller — and then a host of players who range from somewhere between terrible and maybe useful. There’s potential, certainly, with guys like Taijuan Walker and Mike Zunino, so it isn’t out of the realm of possibility that a few kids could take big steps forward and help make the Mariners a good team again, but possible isn’t probable. You make moves based on what’s likely, not on what would be fun if it all worked.

Maybe the Mariners will find a way to add David Price without costing themselves a pitcher off their current rotation. Maybe they’ll make three or four good free agent signings that add enough value to push the team towards that 90 win mark for the next few years. It is possible. This could work.

It could also be a total disaster, though. If the other moves don’t come together, or simply aren’t enough to turn a bad team into a good team, the Mariners could easily have the best second baseman in baseball surrounded by a supporting cast that still doesn’t leave them with a better than .500 club. And this team is very vulnerable to injuries, especially to either Cano or Hernandez, who represent a huge chunk of the team’s chances of contention. A prolonged DL stint by either one probably sinks their season.

There’s upside and risk, as there is with every deal. For me, though, this is too much risk and not enough upside. When the Angels signed Albert Pujols a few years ago, I concluded with this:

I don’t know that spending $25 million per year on Pujols is actually going to provide a better return than using that money to lock up some combination of Aybar, Kendrick, and Haren, and if the Angels have to let several of those players go to keep their payrolls at reasonable levels, it’s not clear that they’ve actually improved their ability to contend during the time when Pujols still projects as an elite player.

If the Cardinals had signed him to this same deal, I think I probably could have talked myself into it. Pujols is great enough that this kind of contract isn’t totally crazy on its face, but when you look at the context of the Angels situation and how much this actually improves them, I just don’t know that this is how they should have spent $250 million. Perhaps Arte Moreno will approve payroll increases up to $200 million and they’ll be able to keep the core of their team together, but if I was an Angels fan, I’d be a little worried that I might be heading to the park to watch Pujols play with a cast of teammates that just aren’t quite good enough to keep up with the Rangers in the AL West.

The Angels are now contenders in 2012, but I don’t know if the present value added for the next year or two is worth the long term consequences of this contract. The Angels are going to need a lot of things to break their way in order for this to work.

I think I feel mostly the same here. This deal isn’t totally crazy on its face. There are reasonable forecasts that suggest that Cano could actually produce more value than you’d expect by spreading $240 million around across multiple players. But I don’t love the context of this deal. I don’t see the Mariners as being well positioned to take advantage of Cano’s value years. Like the Royals of last year, they wanted to move up their window to win, and they paid a big long term cost in order to do so. But it’s not clear that the window to win was close enough to reality to make it a good trade-off, and the risks associated with this kind of plan are extremely high.

There are scenarios where this works out for the Mariners. There are more scenarios where Cano (and whatever else they add this winter) isn’t enough to help make this team good while he’s still producing relative to his contract, or where he simply doesn’t age particularly well and the contract turns into an albatross earlier than expected.

The Mariners have made a big bet on the second half of Robinson Cano’s career. Other elite second baseman have aged pretty well, and perhaps Cano will be more Joe Morgan than Roberto Alomar. The Mariners are now betting on it, and betting that the rest of their roster can get good enough to get Cano to the playoffs to justify this investment. We’ll see if it works out. I’d say I’m skeptical.

We hoped you liked reading Mariners Break the Bank, Hope Robinson Cano Defies Odds by Dave Cameron!

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Cory
Guest
Cory

The Mariners are now still trying to either trade for Kemp or sign Nelson Cruz, and then trade for David Price.

We’re watching franchise suicide here. The Mariners really are the new Royals. If I was one of their fans I’d be sick to my stomach. All they’re going to do now is compete for 3rd for the next decade.

Guy
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Guy

Trust me, I am definitely feeling nauseous.

Kurt Cobain
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Kurt Cobain

Is Cano a mulatto, a mestizo, an albino, or a libido?

J
Guest
J

this was brilliant. what the hell fangraphs readers.

Mitchell Below
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Mitchell Below

This is Seattle; mocha frappuccino.

dustin
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dustin

For those who don’t understand, you might want to read the lyrics of Nirvana – “Smells Like Teen Spirit”

Joe
Guest
Joe

Too many people thought it was racist and not Nirvana lyrics.

Well-Beered Englishman
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Well-Beered Englishman

The new Royals? Are you sure?

I suppose Dayton Moore would have given Francoeur 10/$240M if he had had the budget for it…

Cory
Guest
Cory

In the sense that they’re mortgaging all their current resources/assets in order to finish in 3rd place, yes, the new Royals.

Rauce
Guest
Rauce

“Mortgaging all their current resources…”
The impact on the Royals farm system by The Trade was massively overstated.
They lost a tremendous prospect in Wil Myers, but they won’t miss Odorizzi or either of the lottery tickets included.
I’m not defending The Trade, I’m just pointing out that the “they sold the farm” hysteria/argument is categorically false.
Overpay? Yes, but the Royals are definitely still a Top 10 farm system and maybe Top 5, with five prospects probably in the Top 100.

Preston
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Preston

They should miss Odorizzi right now.

Ruki Motomiya
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Ruki Motomiya

I love how trading Wil Myers is morgaging the entire farm.

The James Shield trade is only bad for the Royals if they don’t continue to go for it this year (which is my primary worry).

NS
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NS

Wil Myers was not the only player traded. Trading two top 50 prospects is pretty close to the definition of trading the farm, even among good systems.

Linus
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Linus

The Mariners haven’t mortgaged anything, not least because they don’t have that many assets. They sign the best 2B in baseball to a big contract, and suddenly they’re in a downward death spiral?

ASURay
Guest
ASURay

What have the Mariners “mortgaged” so far? They haven’t traded Walker/Franklin for Price (yet). So far, all they’ve done is spent money. Neither you nor I know how much money the team has and/or are able to spend. They could have limited resources, for all we know. The problem with the “don’t spend money on FA” argument is that is assumes some knowledge about a team’s financial situation. No one outside of the teams’ inner-circle has actual knowledge about that situation.

ValueArb
Guest

Odorizzi and Wil Meyers alone were worth probably $70M last off season, and then throw in the other two prospects.

KC gave up $70Mish of prospects and increased payroll $30M to get 2 years of Shields & Davis. Shields and Davis weren’t worth $50M last year, and won’t be worth it this year either.

KC hadn’t had a prospect remotely as valuable as Will Meyers and it will probably be years before they develop another. They did the trade to cement Frenchy for a half season in Right Field, and Frenchy/Shields/Davis KC produced barely over 4 wins by fWAR combined.

Odorrizi/Myers were worth 2.7 fWAR in barely a half season combined, plus a savings of $15M a year. Obviously the Royals would have needed another pitcher. A free agent who was available, Anibel Sanchez will make less than $24M on the first 2 years of his deal, and giving him 20% more to sign him not only would have added 6.2 fWAR to the Royals, but subtracted it pretty directly from their division winner. Given Odorizzi would have pitched more in KC and Myers likely is brought up sooner, that probably would have added another 6 wins or so, and deducted almost as many from Detroit.

But Anibel Sanchez was best possible case. What if the Royals couldn’t have signed him and would have had to settle for Dan Haren or Edwin Jackson? Haren/Myers/Odorrizi gets them the same or higher fWAR, and they keep 5 years of the youngsters locked up for their future, plus two more lower level prospects.

Edwin Jackson gives them even higher fWAR, and again keeps their farm system flush, and their future payroll manageable.

And before someone says fWAR for pitchers is based on FIPS, not actual results, and points out that Jackson/Haren were terrible and mediocre, just stop, because they were both better than Wade Davis. Wade Davis had a 5.38 ERA, and threw substantially fewer innings per start and for the season than EJax. Davis’s fWAR of 1.7 is LOLtastic, as is the fact that KC gave up Odorrizzi to pay Davis $8M.

There is no defense, one of the worst trades in recent memory, that gave away hugely valuable assets to entrench two awful performers (Davis & Frenchy) just to save a few million a year on aquiring a very good starting pitcher.

After Shields leaves, the smoking crater this deal left is going to be even more apparent.

Balthazar
Guest
Balthazar

No organization has, or ever will, come out ahead on a 9-10 year contract. There’s the decline/injury aspect. There’s the tied to one skill-set/personality aspect. There’s the inherent lessened need to perform when a guy has huge money guaranteed forever: the org owns his time less than he owns the orgs assets and media leverage. Contracts of this term are dumb; in most cases driven by ego, in others by desperation. (I don’t see _this_ deal driven by either, it’s worse than that.) Cano is a good player, now. I have my reservations on how he got that way, but this isn’t the place or time for that. The stupidest part of this deal outside of the length is that the Mariners just signed a marquee player at the _one, single position_ where they have all of depth, quality, youth, and inexpensiveness. Sure, Cano is better than what’s there now; he’s done it, we don’t have to project. But stupid team design is just . . . because Mariners. My one hope is that this is three-years-and-moved, in the manner of the Whale Deal for Fielder down to Texas. If the Mariners buy Cano’s good years, presuming he continues to have them, and shift him on even at a $$$ loss, I can’t say too much against that. I’m not counting on that outcome.

But to me, this signing has nothing to do, really, with what Cano does ON THE FIELD. Mariners’ ownership and still current team president are a pair of media shills who have no comprehension of the business in which their asset nominally produces—competitive professional team sports—but see asset enhancement entirely a function of branding and media strategy. Wins? Those are hard to get, and Mariners flounder-ship has a lousy record on acquiring those through managing their asset. But player-face branding, cable media on-selling, and contant “Come down to a family-friendly experience reveling in Player X and Player Y” [so what if we lose and overcharge you, you stupid, horrible, little people you],” _THAT_ is what Mariners’ ownership understands and pursues, relentlessly and ineptly in equal measure. Mariners owner-level has ‘mangaged their asset’ to real paper gains, yes—but a fraction of what they could have achieved for the team valuation had they bothered to win and keep the seats full. The Mariners’ asset strategy—promoting—has been pursued at a huge opportunity-cost to an effective asset strategy—winning.

Cano, and more Famous Namz to come, are here to pump of the floundering media strategy of the Mariners, not to perform and win on the field. That is my view. And yes, in that regard, Howard Lincoln and Chuck Armstrong ARE desperate. In Seattle, our ever more popular football team is having the finest season in its history; our local soccer team sells out 35K tickets every game to frenetic fans in what is a national phenomenon; . . . while our baseball team clocks in >12k listed sales a game, and is in danger of sinking below the draw of minor league hockey. That is because a) the team doesn’t win, b) they lose damn ugly at an historical level of excresence, and c) the first wave out of the farm system in the rebuild did a collective face plant even while the team’s media department was trying, risably, to promote them as family-friendly superstars (which none of them will ever be, the latter part). So what does our braindead trust of craggy, whitebread, old boys see as the solution? “Get me Famous Namz, damn you!”

Dont’ hang all this on Jack Zd; we’ve heard far too much of that, most of it erroneously in my view. Yes, Jack had a free hand his first three years. When the first wave of his acquisitions crashed, he came under pressure to get ‘promotable bats’ as far as I can tell. Mariners flounder-ship has a long history of interfering in major personell decisions, exactly of the ‘get me a top of the rotation starter, get me a RH power bat with national cred’ kind of way. When not being ludicriously pinch-penny the other way—and both modalities ever at EXACTLY THE WRONG TIME. Which this signing of Cano is from any standpoint than a desperate ploy to fool the fanbase by propping up the media strategy. Any signing like Cano is made at the ownership level anyway, but all of this fits the past M.O. of Mariners’ Ownership & Cronies as far as I read it.

The Cano deal, in and of itself, may not doom the Mariners; it may even pay off for a few years. Texas got a few, good, big years out of A-Rod (and we now know just how he got big-good to deliver those, don’t we?). What is realy chilling for me as a trying-to-remain fan of the Mariners is the thinking _behind_ the acquisition as I lay it out here, supposing. Seeing the young guys sort themselves out, form a core, and win has been the sole reason to still follow this sad-sack shop run by very rich fools. The kind of rockheaed, media whore, thinking evident to me in this latest patzer move has been very, very costly to this franchise over the last 20 years. And I do guarantee also this org will _never_ win in post season so long as Howard Lincoln has anything to do with major decision making here; he really is this dumb and that bad. And it looks like the controlling vote on major decisons here will only reach competent hands when somebody pries the greasy joystick from his cold dead fingers. Sometime around when Cano’s decline years reach the elevator-shaft-left-open trajectory, yeah.

Dayton Moore
Guest
Dayton Moore

You know, Frenchy is still available.

Hmmm.

Leftfield Limey
Guest
Leftfield Limey

“All they’re going to do now is compete for 3rd for the next decade.”

With payroll at $65m post Cano deal maybe but maybe not.

The Mariners have been trying to pick the lock to escape the basement for the past deacade but were not getting very far and have decided to see if blowing the hinges off does the trick.

Deelron
Member
Deelron

They escaped the basement by adding an Astros sub basement, sadly we count from the top.

Steve Holt!!
Guest
Steve Holt!!

And the astros sub-basement has a pretty good elevator.

ValueArb
Guest

Giving Cano roughly a tax adjusted 60% more than the Yankees or anyone else offered is like blowing the hinges, the door, the frame and the foundation off.

tz
Guest
tz

Sounds like someone should add a whine cellar to the sub-basement, for all these comments.

chuckb
Guest
chuckb

Because Francoeur and Cano are equally good.

Cidron
Member
Cidron

In one GM’s mind they are. Looking at you Dayton Moore.

BFR
Guest
BFR

Bear in mind that competing for 3rd over the next decade is actually an improvement.

LaLoosh
Guest

aside from dealing Taijuan Walker for 2 yrs of David Price, why is this plan suicide? They have 2 aces in their rotation and just 60M committed to 2014?? They can easily add Choo and deal Franklin for something useful. It’s the right time to try and compete. Should they wait until Felix is 34?

Preston
Guest
Preston

As long as they’re willing to spend more and make reasonable trades (I agree trading Walker for Price would be dumb) then I think they can compete. But they need to be honest in assessing their talent. Ackley cannot hit well enough to be the starting left fielder on a competitive team and Smoak probably shouldn’t be counted on either. Ackley, Smoak and Montero probably don’t have a ton of value, but moving them for a reliever would probably be better than giving them any playing time on a team meant to contend.

Linus
Guest
Linus

Trading Walker for Price would not be dumb at all. Jesus Christ, is Fangraphs in some kind of downward spiral toward YouTube comments level?

Overvaluing prospects is the modern stathead version of overvaluing RBI.

Preston
Guest
Preston

It’s not about over-valuing prospects. Price isn’t cheap, and Walker is MLB ready. If you think walker is a 1.5 win pitcher and price is 4.5 you’ve improved 3 WAR for 17.5 million in 2013 and 2014, but Price is a FA after that. If you spend that money on an OF you get a huge upgrade (Mariners RF produced -2.1 wins last year) and get to keep Walker for 6 years at a low price keeping you competitive window open longer. I guess if the Mariner’s are going to pay big for an OF AND trade for Price, and they plan on signing Price long term then it makes more sense. But that’s a lot of money.

Linus
Guest
Linus

Walker is MLB-ready? The kid still walks the ballpark.

Preston
Guest
Preston

He pitched at the MLB level last year, thus he’s MLB ready. I mean I guess everybody could always use a month in AAA to make the transition easier. His walk rate has been fine at every level other than the 57 innings at AAA last season, so I wouldn’t worry too much. And if he K’s batters at that rate he can afford the walks anyways.

Nyyfaninlaaland
Guest
Nyyfaninlaaland

This is totally a grass is greener argument. Walker hasn’t had enough time to show his true value, so because of that his value is high.

But Smoak, Montero, and Ackley, though still rather young, are busts since we’ve seen more of them in the majors. So they’re worth a bag of balls.

Methinks the truth lies somewhere in the gulf between.

ValueArb
Guest

Overvaluing well compensated veterans is much riskier and dumber than overvaluing prospects. When the prospect flames out you aren’t also stuck paying $30M or $240M for them.

Johnston
Guest

TINSTAAPP

James
Guest
James

I think this is what they are thinking… getting the most out of Felix’s prime. Cano doesn’t have injury problems and should hit well enough for long enough that the deal isn’t absolutely horrible for a while… What is more likely to happen in a few years – Felix being injury free and pitching at the same level he is now or Cano being injury free and hitting at the same level he is now?

Steve Holt!!
Guest
Steve Holt!!

Imagine if they did get Price. He may be the worst of the front three starting pitchers. And a decent outfielder would perhaps vault them a little further toward contention. Not the worst way to try and be relevant.

68FC
Member
68FC

As long as they don’t trade Walker/Zunino for a very short term upgrade (like Price), I’m okay with this. The Mariners have money to spend right now and they might as well spend it on big upgrades. The Walker for Price deal would just be terrible because it would be like paying market value for Price (money wise) and trading away a young cheap player that could be near Price’s production in a year or two.

sixto lezcano
Guest
sixto lezcano

Signing or trading for some of the best players in the game is “franchise suicide.” Have we possibly lost a little bit of perspective?

Has it really come to this? We *don’t* want the best players to play for us? It is simply crazy on its face.

Who am I to tell people how to feel? But I’m not sure everyone quite understands the two-WC era just yet. Finishing 84-78 is now a reasonable target and a window for glory. And jeez, the money these teams have! Why wring our hands raw in December? Think positive!

ValueArb
Guest

Finishing 84-78 is more a ceiling not a target. Once the Cano contract goes bad they will be fielding teams with one hand tied behind their back for half a decade.

I’m all for signing Cano. The Yankees offered $175M when state/city income taxes are 11%, so effectively $155M. Why did the Mariners have to offer $95M more when they have no state income taxes? Methinks 8 years $200M (33%/net $45M more than Yankee offer) still gets Cano and doesn’t sink the franchise from 2018-2023.

Simon
Guest
Simon

I bet the Yankees would have matched 8/200. The Yankees decided they weren’t playing at 10/240. It doesn’t mean that 7/175 was really their absolute limit – just that once the Mariners made their offer, the Yankees didn’t have a response that they wanted to make.

Noah Baron
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Noah Baron

Let’s just say that if the Mariners want to make the playoffs they better make another major signing besides Cano. Cano by himself is simply not enough.

Linus
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Linus

What? “The new Royals”? Are you in a contest for “dumbest thing said on the internet” or something?

diderot
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diderot

You don’t know any of those things to be true.

H.Villanueva
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H.Villanueva

While the franchise may be overextending itself at least it looks like its doing so for great players (nelson cruz excluded). Its a gamble that could pay off. Did anyone in their right mind ever think KC had a real shot after their bargain basement binge last off season?

ValueArb
Guest

I thought KC had an excellent shot at saving Dayton Moores job after he gave away the future to play .500 baseball for 2 years.

ValueArb
Guest

Next year when JackZ rolls into the Porsche dealership to pick up his brand new $190k 911 turbo after his new extension, I’m guessing he writes the check for $242,000 and tells the salesman to keep the change.