Matrix Reloaded: February 21, 2025

The heavy lifting for the offseason appears to be over, unless there’s a big trade coming down the pike. (Remember, Dylan Cease wasn’t moved from the White Sox to the Padres until March 13 last year.) But that doesn’t mean nothing has happened in the last week; there were still some stragglers on the free agent market who found teams as spring camps opened, and there’ll be more yet in the lead up to Opening Day. Let’s go over the moves, all of which are updated in the Offseason Matrices document.

Free Agent Signings

Cubs Sign Justin Turner for One Year, $6 Million

• Esteban Rivera’s Write-Up of the Deal
• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Cubs

Turner’s days of getting significant action at third base are over, so I don’t think his acquisition is going to give Matt Shaw any less of a chance of winning the job out of camp. Most of Turner’s plate appearances are likely to come against lefties, spelling lefty-swinging first baseman Michael Busch. The Cubs could also theoretically do some rearranging (Ian Happ to center, Seiya Suzuki to left) to give Turner some DH run against lefties, but that’s a big defensive downgrade from Pete Crow-Armstrong.

Pirates Sign Andrew Heaney for One Year, $5.25 Million

• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Pirates

Heaney hasn’t been anything spectacular over the last couple of years, but he’s a pretty good bet to take the ball for 25-plus starts for a third straight season. He’ll follow Paul Skenes, Jared Jones, and Mitch Keller in the rotation. Bailey Falter is likely to take the fifth spot, with Johan Oviedo, who is coming off Tommy John surgery, also in the mix. Heaney’s recent dabbling in bouncing back and forth between the rotation and bullpen could prove useful down the stretch, assuming at least one of Bubba Chandler, Mike Burrows, Braxton Ashcraft, and Anthony Solometo is ready to contribute at some point this year.

Nationals Sign Lucas Sims for One Year, $3 Million

• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Nationals

Sims signed a deal identical to the one Jorge López got last month, and both will be taken into account for the Nationals’ open closer job after they non-tendered Kyle Finnegan. Sims ended the season with a rough 15 appearances for the Red Sox in which he walked more batters than he struck out, but has a good track record of swing-and-miss stuff. Derek Law and Jose A. Ferrer could also get outs in the late innings for Washington.

Rockies Sign Scott Alexander for One Year, $2 Million

• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Rockies

Alexander is one of just two relievers who is 100% assured of a spot in the Rockies bullpen, along with presumptive closer Tyler Kinley. Seth Halvorsen and Luis Peralta had excellent (small-sample) MLB debuts last year, Victor Vodnik showed some flashes and picked up nine saves, and former closer Justin Lawrence is out of options. Alexander’s ability to get grounders with the best of them should work quite well at Coors Field.

Rangers Sign Luke Jackson for One Year, $1.5 Million

• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Rangers

The top six (!!!) relievers in the Rangers’ projected bullpen weren’t on the 2024 club, though Texas is plenty familiar with Jackson, who made his MLB debut with the team in 2015, the last year of Mike Maddux’s first stint as the club’s pitching coach. The Rangers are probably all set with the bullpen now, with those top six spots locked in and no fewer than 10 arms vying for the final two.

Athletics Sign Luis Urías for One Year, $1.1 Million

• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Nationals

Urías figures to compete with fellow new Athletic Gio Urshela for the open third base spot, and he can also spell Zack Gelof at second base when he needs a day off. It’s possible that the A’s have just one open roster spot remaining for a position player, with the top contenders being Esteury Ruiz, Max Schuemann, Darell Hernaiz, Brett Harris, and CJ Alexander. The Other Max Muncy could make his debut sometime this year.

Nationals Sign Paul DeJong for One Year, $1 Million

• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Nationals

DeJong is settling for a much more limited role than he signed for last year, when he agreed to a $1.5 million contract with the White Sox early in the offseason to be their starting shortstop. Despite hitting 24 homers in his best season 2019, DeJong had to take a deal for two-thirds of his 2024 salary. With the Nationals, he’ll have to fight for plate appearances at third base with José Tena and Amed Rosario, while also occasionally spelling CJ Abrams at short. Alas, the free agent market isn’t always rational, especially this time of year.

Guardians Sign John Means for One Year, $1 Million

• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Guardians

For the 2025 Guardians, Means doesn’t mean too much. After undergoing his second Tommy John surgery in three years last June, it’s hard to foresee the lefty pitching for Cleveland at any point this year, since his first rehab took 16 months. If his recovery goes well, the Guardians have a $6 million club option for 2026, a bargain for a pitcher of Means’ caliber so long as he is healthy.

Who’s Still a Free Agent?

Remaining free agents who could plausibly earn a major league deal include:

• Catchers: Yasmani Grandal, James McCann

• Infielders: Jose Iglesias, Anthony Rizzo

• Outfielders: Mark Canha, Alex Verdugo, David Peralta, Manuel Margot

• Utilitymen: Whit Merrifield

• Designated hitters: J.D. Martinez

• Righty starters: Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn, Spencer Turnbull, José Urquidy

• Lefty starters: Jose Quintana, Patrick Corbin

• Righty relievers: David Robertson, Kyle Finnegan, Dylan Floro, Hunter Strickland, Dillon Tate, Craig Kimbrel, Héctor Neris, Joe Kelly, José Ureña

• Lefty relievers: Jalen Beeks, Andrew Chafin, Brooks Raley, Ryan Yarbrough, Drew Smyly, Will Smith