Mauricio Dubón’s Tear Has Helped the Astros Weather the Loss of Jose Altuve

The loss of Jose Altuve to a broken thumb suffered during the World Baseball Classic has been a blow to the Astros, but while the team is off to an uncharacteristically slow start at 16-14, Mauricio Dubón has risen to the occasion while filling in for the eight-time All-Star. The 28-year-old infielder recently reeled off the season’s longest hitting streak, and on Monday exacted a bit of vengeance by collecting three hits that helped send his former team, the Giants, to defeat.

While playing for Team Venezuela in the World Baseball Classic quarterfinals, Altuve was hit in the right thumb by Team USA’s Daniel Bard, suffering a fracture that required surgery to set. At the time, the Astros estimated that Altuve would need two months before resuming baseball activity, putting him on track for a late May or early June return. The expectation was that unless general manager Dana Brown could add a player from outside the organization in the waning days of spring training, Dubón and rookie utilityman David Hensley would cover the keystone during Altuve’s absence.

It felt like a big opportunity for a nearly-forgotten player. The Astros acquired Dubón from the Giants last May 14, in a straight-up trade for backup catcher Michael Papierski, who played just five games for San Francisco before being lost to the Reds on waivers. It was the third time in five and a half years Dubón had been dealt; after being drafted in the 26th round out of a Sacramento high school by Boston in 2013, the Red Sox included him as part of the Travis Shaw/Tyler Thornburg swap with the Brewers in December ’16. Dubón played in the Futures Game the following summer but his progress to the majors was interrupted by a torn left ACL in May 2018. He topped out as a 45 FV prospect, no. 5 on the Brewers’ 2019 list, but played in just two games for the team before being sent to the Giants in a deadline swap that brought Drew Pomeranz to Milwaukee.

With the team in turnover, Dubón finally got a chance to play in the majors, and initially the returns were solid; he hit a combined .274/.325/.407 (97 wRC+) and was worth 1.1 WAR in 288 PA in 2019-20. He fell out of favor with a .240/.271/.380 (73 wRC+) showing in 2021 and early ’22, however, and couldn’t even hit up to that level in Houston, batting .208/.254/.294 (55 wRC+) while making 29 starts in center field, 12 at shortstop, five in left field, three at second base, and one in right field. Perhaps not forgotten, but with those numbers forgettable.

All of which is to say that expectations weren’t exactly high for Dubón coming into 2023, though his Depth Charts projection (.255/.303/.381, 95 wRC+ in 259 PA) wasn’t far removed from his first two seasons with the Giants. He got the call on Opening Day but went 0-for-3 again the White Sox. While Hensley started the next two games, Dubón singled off Mike Clevinger in his return to the lineup on April 2. That kicked off a 20-game hitting streak that lasted until last Friday, when he went 0-for-4 against the Phillies’ Aaron Nola and José Alvarado.

Dubón’s streak is the longest in the majors this year, surpassing a 17-game streak by the Phillies’ Bryson Stott, the only other player to string together one longer than a dozen games. It’s the longest by an Astro since Hunter Pence’s 23-gamer in 2011; Altuve (2018) and Michael Brantley (2019) have both had 19-gamers since then.

After going hitless on Sunday as well, Dubón rebounded by going 3-for-5 in a 7-3 win over the Giants in Houston on Monday — a game for which he was particularly motivated. “It felt really good, honestly,” he told reporters afterwards. “I was not treated the right way over there. … But with Dusty (Baker) here now, I’m in heaven.”

In the first inning, facing Ross Stripling, Dubón blooped a single into shallow center, stole second as Yordan Alvarez struck out, and came around to score on a José Abreu single. After striking out in the third, he dunked a single into shallow right-center off Stripling in the fifth, driving in a run, and in the eighth against Sean Hjelle, he laced an RBI double down the right field line to give the Astros a 3-2 lead that they never relinquished.

“He basically, significantly beat us today,” said Joc Pederson afterwards.

Via The Athletic’s Andrew Baggarly, Dubón’s beef with the Giants went beyond a lack of playing time — he lost out mainly to Thairo Estrada, who outhit him handily in 2021-22 — and had more to do with the organization’s philosophy:

Dubón’s issues in San Francisco weren’t with one manager or coach. They were more systemic than that. It wasn’t much of a secret around the team that Dubón didn’t agree with the Giants’ roster scheme and didn’t fit their well-established preference for hitters who control the strike zone, draw walks and hit home runs — a philosophy that manager Gabe Kapler executes more than orchestrates.

After getting some pushback, Dubón clarified his comments on Tuesday to make sure that his former teammates understood that his ire wasn’t directed at them. He went 0-for-4, leaving him with a .305/.327/.390 line and a 101 wRC+ — not exactly All-Star caliber but still much better than many expected the Astros would get during Altuve’s absence. It’s not hard to see how the Giants’ philosophy and his own would collide, as he has yet to homer and currently has the majors’ second-lowest walk rate (2.7%) among the 179 batting title qualifiers. In fact, he has by far the lowest Three True Outcomes rate of any qualifier:

If you’re wondering, Max Muncy leads the majors with a 58.4% TTO% — meaning that I’ve bookended the rankings with my coverage in the past several days — followed by Matt Olson (56.4%), Patrick Wisdom and Gunnar Henderson (both 53.6%). As you can see, it’s not easy maintaining even a 100 wRC+ when you’re not walking or homering very often; only four of the 12 lowest TTO rates are accompanied by production that’s league average or better.

So what’s changed for Dubón? In his telling, it’s not a mechanical fix but going up to the plate with a plan, something that’s rubbed off in his conversations with teammate Yordan Alvarez, an elite hitter but a very different type of one given his power. Via The Athletic’s Chandler Rome:

“We talk more about approach more than anything else. I haven’t changed my swing. I haven’t changed anything, it’s just a new mindset,” Dubón said. “Pick a pitch, go with a plan. If you’re going to die, die with a plan. Don’t try to change it. Don’t be afraid to go up there and fail with a plan. I’m going to fail, just fail with a plan.”

That plan has shown up in what Dubón is trying to do. More:

“He’s staying more inside the ball,” hitting coach Alex Cintrón said. “In the past, he was trying to hit balls out of the ballpark and drive the ball in the air. Now he understands that he can do that in the game, but if he stays in the middle or to the opposite field, he has a lot more chances to get on base and get hits.”

Cintrón’s comments jibe with the contrast between Dubón’s 2023 stats and his previous body of work:

Dubón is certainly not hitting the ball hard; his barrel rate places in the eighth percentile, his hard-hit rate in the 12th, his average exit velo in the 13th. He’s going oppo more than ever and producing the highest groundball rate and groundball/fly ball ratio of his career – and it’s working, thanks in part to his speed (which is up to the 83rd percentile after three years in the 71st-75th range). His slash numbers aren’t out of line with his Statcast ones:

It’s worth noting that 95 batted ball events isn’t a small sample anymore; we’re past the point where these numbers start to stabilize. That’s not to say all of what Dubón is doing is going to hold up; already he’s regressed a bit since the end of his hitting streak, during which he batted .341/.367/.435 (126 wRC+). I’m particularly skeptical that a hitter with a 40.9% chase rate (just 1.1 points above his career mark) can continue to be as productive as he is while making so much contact outside the zone, though to be fair, that contact has a notably smaller footprint than in years past:

The real test for Dubón will be how he performs when Altuve returns and the playing time gets harder to come by. That time may be coming soon, as Altuve was spotted taking groundballs on Tuesday, his first baseball activity since the injury and a few weeks ahead of schedule. Even given Dubón’s versatility and ability against lefties (117 wRC+ career), there isn’t an obvious platoon fit for him, because Alvarez and Kyle Tucker are the lineup’s only lefties and they can handle same-side pitching just fine, thanks. His best opening for a share may be in left field, where 27-year-old rookie Corey Julks is hitting .284/.289/.407 with just a 1.2% walk rate. The guess here is that Dubón’s hard work to shore up his game will be rewarded, and that Baker will do what he can to keep his bat fresh. It’s not a world-beating bat, but as my dive into the Yankees’ dregs once again reminds us, good depth isn’t easy to come by.