Max Scherzer’s Big Strikeout Numbers
Max Scherzer’s four starts since returning from Toledo have been quite good. Although he has given up a number of runs, he is striking out lots of batters while not giving up a huge number of walks — a recipe for success. Here are his numbers broken down before and after his time in AAA.
Before:
8 starts, 42 innings, 26 Ks (5.6 per 9), 16 BB (3.4 per 9), 9 HRs, 5.89 FIP
After:
4 starts, 24 innings, 33 Ks (12.4 per 9), 10 BB (3.8 per 9), 3 HRs, 3.33 FIP
Scherzer claims to have made some mechanical adjusments in AAA and the results bear this out, as he is throwing his fastball a solid two mph faster (91.8 mph before heading down, 93.9 since). His change is 1.5 mph faster and his slider is the same speed. One would think that given this jump in fastball speed Scherzer’s increased strikeouts would be the result of more swinging strikes against the fastball. Interestingly, this is not really the case.
Swinging Strike Rate
Before After
Fastball 0.053 0.057
Change 0.113 0.191
Slider 0.140 0.229
Breaking and off-speed picthes almost always have a much higher swinging-strike rate than fastball, so that should not be a big surprise. But I am surprsied that Scherzer’s recent jump in strikeouts is largely the result of an increase in swinging strikes on his breaking and off-speed pitches rather than his fastball. I am sure that the work he did on his mechanics improved his slider and change, but it is also possible that the increased swinging-strike rate on those pitches is due to the increase in speed of his fastball. The effect one pitch has on subsequent pitches in an at-bat is complicated, interesting, and not well understood, but Scherzer may offer an interesting case study in which the results from an improvement to one pitch type (increased fastball speed) is seen in other pitch types (change and slider swinging-strike rate).
Dave Allen's other baseball work can be found at Baseball Analysts.
Dave, what do you think is the better metric, swinging strikes/total pitches or swinging strikes/swings? I’ve always preferred the latter, but I’d love to hear what you think.
Lucas,
I am not 100%. I used to use misses per swings exclusively but Jeff Sullivan showed that misses per pitch correlates very well with strikeout rate. I guess the thing to do would be to compare how well each one does at predicting strikeout rate and then go with that one.
Fascinating. I assumed that misses per swings is better since it isolates the variable. Someone (I forget who) explained misses/swings as being a better way of evaluating a particular pitch, and misses/pitches as being a better way of evaluating pitcher performance.
Who are the 4 teams he has pitched against?
We’re talking about 12 total starts. If you want to read into that, go aheAd. I’m not.
The odds that Max just happened to fix the mechanical errors he has had likely since junior high in a manner of a handful of minor league starts is unlikely.
My guess is Scherzer has a string of 4 starts last year that was just as impressve as these 4.
I like Max but mechanics are not unlearned and relearned that quickly at this level. My guess is we’ll see the 09 Scherzer in ’10 and he’ll pretty much be the pitcher his whole career.
His last four starts have been against Oakland, KC, the White Sox, and the Nationals. None of the four exactly qualify as offensive powerhouses.
He didn’t makeover his mechanics to be smoother or some such. There was a small hitch in his delivery that limited his fastball velocity. It’s now back up to the levels where it has been his whole career except for the early part of this season. I don’t see what’s so hard to believe about that.
He didn’t change mechanical habits from junior high. He developed a mechanical error in his first month with Detroit. He fixed it. Not hard to do.
http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.aspx?playerid=3137&position=P&pitch=FA
So he was throwing as slowly as he had in the majors in the first 8 starts, goes down, comes back up and is throwing right where he was before if not harder. Somehow this doesn’t equate to a mechanical fix?
I think a great comparison can be made between Scherzer’s mid-season resurgence and Francisco Liriano this and last year. Just looking at Liriano’s plate discipline metrics, there is almost no difference in his contact rates, and his zone percentage is still league average or less. However, he gained almost 2 MPH on his fastball, and that seems to have made all the difference. It’s well known that in his monster 2006 season his 95 mph heater was effectively useless, while his slider and change were absolutely beastly, and once again the same thing is happening. Of course, that’s because he has mediocre control of the heater, and he uses it for little more than to get ahead of the count and set up the offspeed, relying on its velocity and movement to keep it out of the stands while doing so.
I guess it just follows one of the cardinal rules of pitching; get ahead in the count, and you have the advantage. A 92 MPH heater is a lot easier to sit on than a 94 MPH heater. The former is one basically any non-pitcher can get around on consistently, while the same can’t be said for the latter. With the former, you need to throw quality pitches or the hitters will smack you, but add a couple of ticks to the heater, and now you can work up in the zone, throwing right down the middle, and it’s not guaranteed it will get hit. Not only are the hitters not guaranteed to square up the fastball, they are behind in the count, and now they have to figure out whether or not the pitcher will throw his offspeed pitches, and that creates indecision, and more whiffs as a result. Having filthy movement on these offspeed pitches only adds to the whiffability.
Perhaps someone can expand this further, i’m blank right now.
Again, a great example of why one needs to think. Numbers are only numbers, it still requires knowledge of the underlying data and what created that data, to understand and make sense of those numbers.
If the author understood pitching, he would realize that fastball velocity does affect the effectivity of other pitches, especially a slider and change. The swing & miss is induced, at least in part, by the hitter mistiming his swing. And the mistiming is produced when the hitter swings at pitch he thinks is going 95 MPH, but is actually going 85 MPH. Of course, the less speed differential between the pitches, the less likely a hitter is to actually miss the pitch entirely. Here is a good article explaining why the speed differential matters for both a fastball and changeup (http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/anatomy-of-a-pitch-change-up/).
Numbers are fantastic, but they augment hard work and research regarding the underlying realities, they do not substitute for it. Next time do some research into how pitching works!
Actually, this is a really good jumping off point for more study — how much do secondary pitches (mostly change-ups and sliders, maybe power curves) benefit from better fastballs — both velocity and command of them.
With better fastball velocity, the hitter has to commit just that much sooner for all pitches in order not to be behind the fastball. That puts him out in front of the change-up and gives him less time to realize the slider is moving differently than the fastball.
You could compare pitchers with similar velocities/movements on change-ups and sliders, but group them by fastball speed.
Good thought. I’d like to see analysis like this.
Small hitch in his delivery that limited his velocity?
That sounds like something you’d tell Nuke LaLoosh and then have him wear garters to correct it.
All the mechanical things Max does wrong and a little hitch is the culprit for the bad start.
It’s possible, and I’m not a know everything, but it sounds like a load.
Geez, I just read the article at the Tigers site.
Heck, why do the Tigers even have have a pitching coach? Max figured it out the very first day of his demotion. Shuh.
Go get em Nuke.
After Max’s next poor start tell him to hold the ball like an egg, don’t think, have fun, put the rose in the front, breah through the right eyelid, and understand the relationship between his right arm and his left testicle.
I really like Max, but really.
He didn’t have velocity, he made a minor mechanical adjustment, and now he’s got velocity. Look at the velocity charts from his games this season. It’s obvious that something changed. I don’t understand what’s so hard to believe about that.
It’s possible. I’m just having some fun with it.