McClanahan “Highly Unlikely” To Return This Season, Worsening Rays’ Rotation Woes

“Dr. Neal ElAttrache” is up there on the list of three-word phrases you don’t want to see near a pitcher’s name. Not quite as bad as “Federal grand jury,” “Devoured by wolverines,” or “Drafted by Colorado,” but up there. Tampa Bay Rays ace Shane McClanahan visited the estimable orthopedic surgeon on Monday to get a tight left forearm checked out, and the results were not to his liking. ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported Tuesday afternoon that McClanahan is “highly unlikely” to return this season, in the words of Rays manager Kevin Cash.

Over Tampa Bay’s most recent run of success, the Rays have set great store by their pitching, and more recently by their rotation, which ranks third in the majors in WAR. But that success has come amidst a sweeps-week Grey’s Anatomy special in the medical department. McClanahan will be the biggest loss yet, as he leads Rays starters in innings and was one of the team’s All-Star representatives last month. The question, as always, is whether Tampa Bay can hang on, and what “hanging on” looks like for a club that’s already headed backwards.

The Rays were so good early this year we took them for granted. At the end of June, they were on a 109-win pace with an even better run differential, and nobody in the American League looked to be their match. On the morning of July 1, the Rays were 6 1/2 games up on their nearest AL competition; since then, they’re 12-18, which is just a game ahead of the A’s. The Rays are now two games behind the Orioles; their odds of winning the division (and by extension, clinching a bye) have been cut in half over the past 38 days.

Tampa Bay’s decline has been comprehensive over that span; through June 30, the Rays had a team wRC+ of 126, which put clear daylight between them and the second-best offense in baseball. The Rays also led the league in baserunning runs through that point. Since July 1, the Rays are 21st in wRC+ and 10th in baserunning. So this isn’t just about injuries in the rotation. But it’s not not about injuries in the rotation either.

I’m going to fudge the timeline here a little bit — it’s not like the entire Rays rotation came down with bum elbows all at once and then the team got swamped by the Orioles. But pitching depth is a concept that compounds itself either in abundance or in absence; nobody understands that connection better than the Rays, who have been rotating starters on and off the IL since this run of playoff appearances began:

The Rays have been able to make it work because of their ability to scout, develop, and otherwise conjure depth. President of baseball ops Erik Neander loves a midseason trade that brings in a fresh arm, and of course the team that popularized the opener has found creative ways to fill innings.

But in the past 12 months, the Rays have lost basically an entire elite starting rotation to some injury or other:

That doesn’t include Brendan McKay, the former no. 4 overall pick who hasn’t pitched in the majors since 2019, and since then has thrown just 28 professional innings at any level as he’s suffered shoulder issues, thoracic outlet syndrome, and most recently a torn UCL. It also doesn’t include Glasnow, who missed a start with a back problem but should return this week, or Zach Eflin, who had an injury scare two weeks ago; an MRI on his knee came back clean.

If every major league starter the Rays had were healthy, I don’t know if this would be the best rotation in baseball, but you’d at least have to consider the possibility. With McClanahan on the shelf indefinitely, Cash will be praying that Glasnow and Eflin can continue to eat big innings (far from a sure thing for either pitcher throughout their careers), and that new acquisition Aaron Civale continues to keep the ball in the yard.

Even then, that’s only three-fifths of a rotation at best. The next man up is probably Taj Bradley, who has the makings of Tampa Bay’s next ace but came down with a bad case of dingeritis around the same time the Rays’ season in general started to go south:

Bradley is currently in Triple-A getting straightened out, but McClanahan’s injury might rob him and the Rays of that luxury. The other minor league starter currently on Tampa Bay’s 40-man roster is Cooper Criswell, a big, soft-tossing right-hander with a weird crossfire delivery. Criswell has been OK in limited big league action this year (seven multi-inning relief appearances totaling 25 innings, with 24 strikeouts, 14 earned runs and — bizarrely — four hit batters), but I doubt Cash wants to start him in a must-win playoff game.

If McClanahan had gotten hurt two weeks ago, Neander would’ve had time to make another trade to shore up the rotation. Probably not a like-for-like swap, given the huge reported asking price around the likes of Dylan Cease, but someone who could have given the Rays another eight or nine quality starts from now until the end of the season. Now, that opportunity has come and gone.

On the other hand, putting it that way — “eight or nine quality starts” — feels like something the Rays, those irrepressible scroungers of innings, can fudge with the arms already in the organization. Still, it’s another unwelcome obstacle for a team that needs to start climbing up the standings, but needs to arrest its slide first.