Melky Cabrera Suspended For Failing PED Test
MLB’s official account just sent out the following message on Twitter.
BREAKING: Giants OF Melky Cabrera suspended 50 games without pay after testing positive for Testosterone, a performance-enhancing substance.
— MLB (@MLB) August 15, 2012
Melky Cabrera’s suspension begins immediately, and since the Giants only have 45 games remaining in their schedule, this effectively knocks him out for the remainder of the regular season and the NLDS, should the Giants qualify for the playoffs. Losing Cabrera in the midst of their pennant chase will obviously hamper those efforts.
Cabrera was in the midst of the best season of his career, hitting .346/.390/.516, and had accumulated +4.5 WAR in 501 plate appearances. Taking his bat out of the Giants line-up creates a significant offensive hole, and this news probably makes the Dodgers the favorites to win the NL West.
This will also have massive ramifications on Cabrera’s future, in all likelihood. He is eligible for free agency at the end of the season, as a guy heading towards his age 28 season who had put together two straight terrific seasons, he was likely in for a significant payday. This failed test will certainly cast a cloud of suspicion on Cabrera’s breakout performance from last year (which was caused by a significant jump in power), and teams will likely be very wary of giving a significant contract to a player coming off suspension for PEDs.
Rather than pointing to the contracts received by the likes of Torii Hunter and Aaron Rowand, teams will now be equating him to the likes of Jose Guillen and Manny Ramirez. If this list of PED suspensions on Wikipedia is accurate, then as far as I can tell, no player has ever signed a deal for more than two years after previously failing a drug test, and nearly every player on the list had to go year to year for the remainder of their career.
Most other players who have failed drug tests have either been at the end of their careers — and thus easily avoided — or have already been under contract. How Major League teams approach Cabrera’s free agency should be a fascinating story. He’s probably gone from looking at a 5+ year contract to hoping for a one-year “pillow contract” where he can attempt to get through 2013 without any failed drug tests and hope that he can sustain a high quality performance, and the list of teams who are willing to take the PR hit to bring in a guy coming off a failed PED list is probably not that large. Cabrera has instantly gone from being one of the prizes of the winter to being a guy who will probably not have many suitors.
This failed test may end up costing Cabrera in excess of $60 to $70 million this winter. Because of the timing of the suspension, this may be the highest cost any player has ever paid for failing a drug test.
Just to settle my curiosity, I’ve set up a poll (after the jump) to see how this news affects your willingness to employ Melky Cabrera on your own. If you were a Major League GM and Cabrera offered to play for you at whatever number you considered to be a reasonable price — whether that’s the league minimum or $5 million — would you sign him? Or do you simply now see Cabrera as a guy you wouldn’t want on your roster because of the bad PR and the belief that he’s going to take a big step backwards if he stops using testoserone?
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
What took so long to write this article? 🙂
I wonder if this will give the Yankees a chance to sign him and reunite with Cano. (then again, they both played better when they werent together). No way the Yankees would have paid 10+ million a season for him while trying to get under the cap for 2014, but a 1-year deal with a good amount of change would fit. I’m looking forward to see how he is handled as a FA too.
for a team trying to distance itself from the PED fiasco i would think they steer far clear of Melky
It certainly wasn’t copy-editing. The article states “no player has ever signed a deal for more than two years after previously failing a drug test,” and that’s simply not true. It might be true that no player has signed a deal for more than two years after having been suspended for PED’s, but plenty of people who failed drug tests during the pilot program in 2003 signed multi-year deals after that.
Shut up.
Sorry Sean; it’s absolutely insane to think that, at a website where precise mathematical calculations are so highly valued, precise use of language should be set aside. Nobody will take your opinion seriously if it’s not written well.
Name one and not from the confidential pilot program in 2003 that was supposed to be anonymous and carried no penalties for testing positive.
Why should the confidential pilot program be excluded when the language used in the article clearly includes it? That’s exactly my point about why things need to be written properly to avoid confusion.
Seems like you just like to nitpick for its own sake.
But did they sign multi-year deals after it was REVEALED that they were on that 2003 list?
For example, A-Rod was outed a year after signing his big contract. After Ortiz was outed, did he get a multi-year deal? I think he’s had to go year-to-year since the deal he had at the time expired, or was there another deal in there? Honestly can’t remember.
Jim, if you need us to spell this out for you, then you’re simply not going to get it.
In the case of the 2003 tests teams did not know who did or did not test positive. They were unableto know if a person being signed was a user. If those people were known, they might not have gotten long-term deals, though I would expect many would have.
You’re trying to bring up an anonymous test in which there was no knowledge for tems to base things on for the sake of this trend of players’ not getting long contracts after testing positive.
I tried to reply to your reply but was unable. So here it is: Shut up.
Problem: The 2003 tests, intended to be anonymous, did not even tell what a guy tested positive for. So basically, it could have been a known synthetic testosterone, a tainted herbal supplement, or too many poppy-seed muffins before test day (which, for the record, will indeed make you test positive for opiate usage).
Plus, even applying a low burden of proof to steroid implications (e.g. http://www.baseballssteroidera.com/bse-list-steroid-hgh-users-baseball.html), very few of these guys received a deal of 3 years or longer after even having allegations. Clearly, teams will sign these guys, but they’re not going all-in on them.
Wow!
That is all.
Whoops. I would think a 1-year, $10 million contract would work well for both he and whatever team ends up signing him. He gets a chance to prove himself and sign a big contract after the year (or an extension during the year), and the teams gets to make sure that his performance isn’t due to PEDs.
Of course there is probably some team out there who will up that offer and maybe give him something like 3/$40MM (although not the 5/$70+ he probably would have got). It should be interesting.
I would think a team would be more likely to swoop in with a 3-year/$20m contract. 3/$40m is nearly market rate.
I’m thinking market rate, before the failed test, is more like 4/$60MM or even 5/$70MM. He’s still pretty young (28 next year) and having his second 4+ WAR season in a row.
So my guess is that he receives two kinds of offers: a 1/$10MM offer and a 3/$40MM offer by some team willing to take the risk. But that’s a lot less than he would have gotten.
Absolutely no way he gets offered 3/$40.
” So my guess is that he receives two kinds of offers: a 1/$10MM offer and a 3/$40MM offer ”
====================================
why in the world would he be offered a higher annual salary over 3 years, than he would get for a 1 year deal?
sorry, thats not how it works.
I think the market rate for him today is going to be slightly lower than the market rate would have been for him before the 2011 season… everybody is going to assume that his increased production the last two years was solely as a result of PED use, and pay him to be the player he was with the Yankees / Braves.
Which he very well might be. I’d love to see the Mets give him a year at 2 or 3 million since we don’t exactly have outfielders. If you take out the past season and a half, Melky’s pretty much sucked, without a single year with above average offense. His defense has also fluctuated from just above average to pretty bad. There’s a cloud over everything good he’s done, and justifiably so.
“….everybody is going to assume that his increased production the last two years as solely as a result of PED use.”
Right, and this is because Ryan Braun has sucked so bad this year compared to last year when he was juiced.
Ryan Braun has been a very good player every year in MLB – before, during, and after his controversial drug test.
Melky was not good for several years, and then suddenly became a very good player.
Which one sounds more like PEDs had an impact on performance?
No way Melky Cabrera gets anywhere near that kind of money!
He averaged 0.6 WAR for the five seasons in which he played about 3/4 of his team’s games until last season.
No team is going to give him credit for 2011-2012.
Somebody should, and probably will, sign him for $3-$4 million for one year at best.
Well hell. I think the entire male sex could be suspended.
John Kruk would only get 25 games.
Pretty much every vertebrate has testosterone at some level.
“This failed test may end up costing Cabrera in excess of $60 to $70 million this winter. Because of the timing of the suspension, this may be the highest cost any player has ever paid for failing a drug test.”
Not counting what he will receive in the future regardless. These “pillow” contracts given out in the past (Beltre, Pena) have each been over 10 mil for a year. Even if he got half of that, you still have to consider the money he will actually make in the following 4-5 years. He won’t cost himself 60 to 70 million unless he doesn’t play baseball again (unlikely).
Bro, he would have gotten 5/$85 this year on the open market.
And that depends on what a Hall of Fame induction is worth. I guess it’s true that technically McGwire didn’t fail a drug test but his use of PEDs did cost him the Hall. That might be worth more than $70 million.
Even if it’s not worth that much in endorsements, how many Hall of Famers would trade their induction for $70 million? My guess is not many.
All those whose careers ended prior to oh, say, 1990.
Are you kidding? how many HOFers even got $70 mil salary in their careers? I bet its 95% take the money over the HOF. Unless i made several hundred mil in salary at the very least, i know i would. If you’re from the Dominican Rep. you could feed half the country with that money.
chuckb, sorry but youre out of your mind
Would Cabrera have been good enough to even receive a big contract had he not cheated though? It’s a double-edged sword.
Highest cost for failing a test, not using PEDs.
Since we don’t know how his career would have gone otherwise, we can’t speculate on the net financial impact of his use.
Exactly. Maybe if he’d been innocent of PEDs, he’d also not be worthy of $70M.
Agree with this.
We don’t know when he started using, and we don’t even know IF they help.
What we do know is this: Melky was non-tendered by Atlanta after the 2010 season, and it was widely known that he let himself get out of shape. We also know he “recommitted” himself to conditioning and came into 2011 in great shape. We know he’s been a very good player since that point.
Do PEDs give you the eye-hand coordination to hit major league pitching? Probably not. Can they help you go from a fat blob to a ripped stud? I think so.
It’s not outrageous to think Melky “cheated” his way to his career turnaround.
A pretty good study from a few years ago that a lot of people conveniently dismiss showed that anabolic steroids did indeed improve hand-eye coordination to a significant degree.
However, we don’t know what he took, but if it’s just testosterone in some form and not a steroid, we probably should not assume the same effects.
But you raise an excellent point. Let’s say taking what he did only helped him get into and stay in the best shape of his life, and recover faster. Now that he’s seen what he’s capable of, does that lead him to just work harder and stick to protein shakes? And if he did that, would it be good enough to get him in the range of performance that he’s been at for the last two years? I think if it’s just a training issue, for the most part the issue is going to be his commitment. And now that we know he cheated rather than just working hard, we sort of have to rely on his history of being lazy.
@Paul ^^
dude, testosterone IS a steroid. its the DOSE that matters. you take enough testosterone and you’ll get HUGE.
Actually, Melky was not even technically non-tendered by Atlanta. To be non-tendered, the deadline has to pass while you are still on the roster without you being offered a contract and it makes you a free agent. The Braves didn’t wait that long. A couple days after the season, they outright released him, well before the non-tender deadline. The AJC beat writer reported something like this: The Braves today released Takashi Saito and Melky Cabrera. They released Saito because they were contractually obligated to do so. (Standard clause for veteran Japanese players without MLB service time to be free agents). They release Cabrera because he sucks.
Question is, WTF does testosterone do to enhance baseball ability?
I wouldn’t be surprised if he was. He tested positive in 2012, but in 2011, he had a very good year as well (4+ WAR). This season, you saw an offensive increase, but that also followed a 40-point increase in his BABIP, so a decent chunk of his increased production could be attributed to that.
If he has stayed in that .330-ish BABIP this season, he probably would have still been near .300, with 15 HR and 20 steals. He’d be a passable defender at a corner position as well. He probably wouldn’t have been THIS good, but he would have probably been somewhere near his 2011 numbers, adjusted for having to play in that park in San Fran.
AAAAAAHAHAHAHAHAHAH!!!!!!!!!
interesting take…. dodgers fan?
All Star MVP!
i wonder if he shrivels up and is never heard from again, like Manny.
I’m no scientist, but according to Wikipedia “testosterone is observed in most vertebrates,” which means we can look forward to all MLB players being gradually replaced by arthropods over the next several seasons.
I laughed.
I always thought Nick Punto was ahead of his time.
I, for one, welcome our new insect overlords.
Well, Hunter Pence is sort of taking Melky’s place…
Well done, Mr. Brockman. You need not worry about working in the underground sugar caves.
I’m creating a human centipede eighty-nine feet in length to serve as a pinch runner.
I literally laughed out loud when I just read that. Outstanding.
Pretty limited role though. I mean jeez…that strike zone.
Actually, the small strikezone may be an asset–almost every plate appearance results in walk plus 3 SBs. Most valuable DH in MLB history?
I don’t think so — no way it could stay in the batter’s box. It would be called out every AB on the first pitch.
Players’ union would demand non-discriminatory, player-specific batter’s box…
If McCutchen slumps over the remainder of the season, this could force MLB to confront the issue of statistics for players caught using PEDs. Cabrera is at 501 PAs and currently 2nd in the NL in BA.
The required number of plate appearances for the batting title is 502. He won’t be eligible for any of these awards. My guess is that MLB wanted this suspension to start before he got to the 502 PA.
They can add a hitless AB to his totals, and if he still has a higher average than McCutchen after that, Cabrera will be the average leader.
That’s how it used to work, at least. I’m not aware of any changes to that formula.
For things like a batting title, they can give the award to someone under the minimum if they still would have had the highest average even when you give them 0-fer’s for the remaining PA’s.
I thought for rate stats they padded to the minimum by treating every missing PA as an out (so someone who was 120-400 would become 120-502).
MLB has a history of giving a player the extra at bats to make up for it. So he will probably be given his extra 1 AB dropping his average something like .0006
That is if MLB will give him the extra at bat.
The policy is that they would add in additional ABs (equivalent to outs) and allow the player’s BA to count with the same number of hits and the qualifying AB total.
If the Giants play 162 games he would need to add only 1 AB, if they play a tie breaking game it would be 4. If a game is rained out and not made up he has already met the qualifying total.
You all are right. I forgot about the fact that they could add hitless at-bats to his total.
People keep saying “could” as if it’s some sort of option. Adding empty PA’s up to the minimum required is how it’s done. MLB could no more strip Melky of a batting title (should he win one this year) than it could strip Bonds of his 762 home runs. In other words, to do so, they would have to pretend that results from official Major League games were invalid, something they have never been willing to do in the past.
Yeah, you can bet MLB is pulling for Cutch to win outright. Last year the MVP, this year the potential batting champ. I thought Roids were out of the game.
Then watch McCutchen fail a drug test in the offseason.
I want to create a program that just automatically thumbs downs everything JimNYC ever says.
It must have been a bad batch.
Don’t blame Braun, blame the system.
Amazing how quick he apologized for it…just gives me the feeling that he used and didn’t care. Makes me feel like he went oh crap I was caught…I’m sorry.
He has known about the test results since close to the all-star break. The general public just found out about it today.
Right, but it still comes off so disingenuous.
The policy is that they would add in additional ABs (equivalent to outs) and allow the player’s BA to count with the same number of hits and the qualifying AB total.
If the Giants play 162 games he would need to add only 1 AB, if they play a tie breaking game it would be 4. If a game is rained out and not made up he has already met the qualifying total.
Hit the wrong thread here, sorry.
This is the most high-profile current baseball player to basically admit use and apologize. Usually, they make up some lame excuse and feign naivity. You’re saying you prefer that method?
I think it’s a nice change.
I’m saying the way he handled it (releasing a statement right behind the announcement) comes off as if he just was apologizing because he was caught, not because he felt sorry for breaking the rules.
A-Rod? Maybe that’s different because the admission came years after he ostensibly stopped using.
Tough crowd. I’m sure MLB, the MLBPA and the Giants all put their press releases together at the same time and hit send. Melky probably doesn’t really have that much say as to when his statement was going to get sent. I’m not sure what is ‘disingenuous’ about admitting after the fact, what do you want him to admit before he is caught?
Dunno about that.. Pettite basically admitted it etc etc.
I’d rather have him talk to the media and show that he’s sorry then just sending out a statement after the fact. Having a statement (which lets face it, he probably didn’t write himself or was cleaned up by someone) is such a quick and easy way to move away from the story. Standing in front of the camera and making some sort of meaningful gesture would greatly change my opinion on how he handled it.
Now obviously he could do that still, but at this point it is just a bunch of words that distance him from a mistake he made that he would probably continue to make if he knew there was no repercussions.
A-Rod admitted and apologized after being “caught”. Except he wasn’t actually “caught”, a reported leaked his name from a confidential test that was taken and wasn’t supposed to generate any consequences.
David Ortiz on the other hand, promised us all an explanation for why he was on that list.
We’re still waiting….
Replying to the notion that his admission was not enough. I could just be over-reacting, but it really seems to me like in the past few years we’re now in this mode where we think it’s appropriate to sit in judgment of people’s motives. Maybe this is some impact from reality TV or something, but really, when somebody breaks the rules and clearly is going to pay a dear price for it, move on. Do you want him to personally come to your house and beg forgiveness on bended knee?
Not to get into a whole nother debate here, but it reminds me of the “death penalty” for Penn State football take. Hey, the people responsible were held accountable. What does whitewashing history accomplish?
Again, I’m willing to admit that I’m just wrong, but I don’t get the unwillingness (among a large number of people, not to pick on one person here) to accept the proper outcome of a violation of rules or laws. Should we stone him in the public square? Would that make anybody feel better?
He just now admitted it, he lied to a reporter a few weeks a go. If he would have somehow gotten off he never would have admitted it. Plus, he knew he was guilty, and appealed it anyway so now he won’t be available for the playoffs, which hurts the giants even more.
Guilty people appeal their verdicts on a regular basis. Are people here really saying that if they had a process available to them where the possibility exists that they could get off for a rules violation or crime they committed, they’d take the punishment instead? I gotta say, I think you should be the one to face a criminal punishment or something as serious as losing the type of money Melky is losing before being so quick to judge whether or not someone has fulfilled some level of cosmic truthiness. Lying to a reporter is neither against the rules or illegal.
Again, I’ll go back to something being different here, because I should not be making this argument. I am all for severe punishments for people breaking the PED policies. I just don’t get the extra knife turn.
Give the man credit for confessing and apologizing. Most, if not all, the others just lied about it. Is that what you think Melky should have done?
You guys still disagree with me that he coped out? It was a save face moment like I said…he didn’t regret it and the news that has now come out proves that.
too bad it wasn’t aubrey huff
it certainly wasn’t huff’s testosterone.
Well Cabrera had to get it from somewhere… Tomorrow’s headline “Giants Training Staff Performs first testosterone transfusion between two live men”. It really accounts for Huff’s poor play (obviously not because he’s a poor player!) hahaha
If you want to see a good analog to what’s happening in MLB and really all of baseball now, just look to pro cycling. So many suspensions at the upper echelons of the pros that it has completely changed how cyclists train for their sport.
Athletes will be tested repeatedly and a ‘biological passport’ will be developed. When values that conflict with the baseline passport values and exceed a predetermined threshold amount, the athlete will be judged to have cheated by using an artificial substance. It’s not that Melky had testosterone in his system, its that he had an unexplainably high amount of it in his bloodstream when he was tested..
I literally just traded Melky, Morse, and Tyler Clippard for Matt Cain and Greinke. What I thought was a win for me looks like a coup now. The trade went through this morning. Looks like that one worked out.
I know. Literally the first thing I thought when I heard this new was, “How will it affect Los’s fantasy team?”
Thanks for the update.
Actually that should read “Los’ fantasy team”
K thanks.
You’re multiplying!
Actually there is no one rule to the possessive, it all depends on the English you are using.
Some English experts simply say you should use what sounds correct. In the case of the possessive Los, “Los’s” does indeed sound correct. However we would exclude the ‘s’ when using plural. Saying something to the effect of, the players’ values in relationship to your fantasy baseball league is of no value to this thread, would be accurate.
Los’s is gramatically correct because Los is not plural. Los’ is an acceptable alternative.
Ha you all are just jealous of my brilliant trade and some of yall are still stuck with the Juiceman on your team.
Actually, that should be “some of you all,” or, at least, “some of ya’ll.”
K THANKS!
It’s y’all, not ya’ll.
“My positive test was the result of my use of a substance I should not have used,” Cabrera said in a statement. “I am deeply sorry for my mistake.” – Melky
At least he just came out and admitted it. That’s gotta be a first?
Agreed, as a Giants fan this is devastating, but at least he admitted he did it. Braun is still playing because he got a good lawyer, go figure.
He likely knew about this long ago and appealed just like Braun, but lost his appeal and now has to live with it. Remember we should have never heard about the Braun positive test.
Braun is still playing because Shyam Das is a typical well-heeled arbitrator who wouldn’t know where to stand in a court of law let alone try a case or preside over one. Braun’s mouthpieces would have been laughed out of a real courtroom in front of a real judge applying the rules of evidence and contract law.
It’s easy to figure. Braun won his appeal because his sample was mishandled. Melky lost his appeal for whatever he appealed (so no, he didn’t exactly come clean when caught). You may not agree with the outcome, but it’s easy to figure.
Das did vote against the NFLPA in the bounty case about a month ago, so it’s not like he’s anti-establishment or anything.
Braun got off because the samples were mishandled. (And really, the idea of something this important [millions at stake] being left in someone’s basement is a bit absurd. Not that it makes Braun not culpable, but what was MLB thinking?). Melky’s failed test was well after the Braun debacle. I am sure MLB made sure that never happened again.
Braun’s sample was mishandled? Actually, it was handled in accordance with the typical protocol for that situation. Also, what do you mean, “what was MLB thinking”, the decision on how to handle the sample was made by the handler and the handler only MLB had nothing to do with. And yeah MLB has already made sure that will never happen again as in direct response to the Braun ruling the MLB and the union agreed to change the rule.
What a shocker. I’ve been saying this guys been on PEDs for the last year and a half. Listen, ANY time a guy has a huge spike in offensive numbers, performance enhancing drugs are the obvious, and more often than not, correct answer.
Except for Jose Bautista right?
(I keed, I keed)
Really, and you are so sure than ANY time this happens PEDs are the cause? How are you so sure of this? I’m pretty sure you can look back long before the 1980s and see players who spiked here and there or came out of no where to have a great year. Why would this still not be able to happen without PEDs.
Greenies (which aren’t “PEDs” per se) say hello.
By your logic, Babe Ruth must have been on PED’s. There were multiple times HE had more homers than other entire teams did. Suspend him and remove his bust, plaque, etc from the HoF !
Hilarious coming from the Blue Jays fanboy.
You all can make a big ruckus if you want, but your just obscuring the facts. There is a clear and direct correlation that between huge upticks in performance and steroid usage in baseball. We’ve seen it enough times with Ortiz, Matt Lawton, ARod, Jose Guillen, Clemens, and now Melky, that we can stop acting all politically correct and accept that the fact that all those types of guys are using.
So Bautista’s juicing?
Jose Bautista has never once been linked to steroids, dummy, so he is not juicing. You can’t convict guys without any evidence just when it fits with what you want.
1533: “Listen, ANY time a guy has a huge spike in offensive numbers, performance enhancing drugs are the obvious, and more often than not, correct answer.”
1803: “You can’t convict guys without any evidence just when it fits with what you want.”
Huh.
Xao: everdiso has become so used to trolling himself he no longer realizes he’s doing it.
When did A-Rod have a “huge uptick” in performance?
Dude has been a stud since he was a teenager.
How true. For example, this thread contains a huge spike in the number of your offensive posts, so you must be on PEDs.
The rational comment must have been from the bizarro everdiso.
Big impact on the NL MVP race. Melky Cabrera obviously is no longer an MVP candidate. His loss makes it a lot more difficult for the Giants to make the playoffs, in which case Buster Posey’s candidacy is shot, as I believe voters will, in a tight race (like this one), want to vote for a guy whose team makes the playoffs. In my view, the frontrunner is Andrew McCutchen at the moment, but if the Cardinals overtake the Pirates (which appears to be happening, finally) and make it into the playoffs, while the Pirates stay home, Matt Holliday winds up winning the thing if he puts up big numbers down the stretch. Although, as was previously discussed a few days ago, the “Pittsburgh Pirates are finally good again!” narrative may be so compelling that McCutchen wins the award, regardless, assuming he plays well down the stretch.
Mixed blessing for the Giants, as $75 mil for Melky Cabrera never seemed like a good idea to me, and now they’re going to be able to get him at a huge discount, and as we’ve seen from Ryan Braun’s 2012, Cabrera is liable to continue to play at a very high level even without the aid of PEDs.
lol. Melky wasn’t going to win MVP.
Now I say McCutchen and Holliday have the best shot. Posey could be a darkhorse if he keeps mashing but it’s a long shot.
“Cabrera is liable to continue to play at a very high level even without the aid of PEDs.”
what do you base that on?
This probably improves Buster’s chances of getting the MVP, as Cabrera will no longer take some of his votes.
I think there’s another important angle here, related to how major league teams will approach Melky’s free agency. This case will do more to discourage other players from using PEDs than any suspension or reputation damage ever could, as so many use it to boost a payday. After what Melky stands to lose, many players might think twice about getting a little helper.
Meh. If we accept his Braves performance as his baseline, Melky was pretty close to being out of baseball if he DIDN’T use. Whatever contract he gets next year will still be more than he would’ve gotten in independent ball.
agree with that. some of the fringe players, they’ve got nothing to lose, especially a minor leaguer who wouldn’t get to MLB without PEDS. They’ll find the Victor Conte types, who will devise ways to get them to pass the drug tests. There’s too much money to be made throughout the sports industry.
and I gotta believe at least 50% of NFL players are on the juice, NFL just doesn’t want to catch them.
Melky was a lazy fat turd in Atlanta. I wonder where he’d be now if he just dedicated himself to becoming a more fit athlete sans steroids? Maybe not as good but certainly somewhere in-between.
Agree, he just saw $50-60 million fly out the door. That is big incentive to not take the risk.
That’s a big incentive not to get caught. Cheating still got him $6m this year that he may not have gotten otherwise, plus whatever he gets as a free agent. He was on the road to being non-tendered. Now, even if he bombs next year and washes out, he’ll have probably added $8-$12m onto his career earnings. That’s a pretty decent incentive to take the risk.
Not really. My guess is this is still a net positive for him financially given where he was 2 years ago.
there’s no way he’s in line for a $50-$60 mil contract without roids. He might have been out of MLB by now if you guess he started taking them just before he hit KC.
Just appeal it, bro.
Did you send him your lawyer’s number??
ok, will do.
roids.
Time for Todd Linden to pull a Ryan Vogelsong.
What’s the impact on the Giants? Does Blanco–who’s not that great–get most of the starts? Is there anyone they can bring up?
http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=kiesch001rog
Kieschnick has been on the DL for the past 2 1/2 months. Don’t think he’s gonna help the Giants any time soon.
Impact on the Giants.. two players suspended this year, for ped use…. balco from bay area.. Granted, Balco is shut down, but it seems that the region is still putting out peds and getting them in the hands of some professional players, somehow. Might want to look into that a little bit too.
i doubt it.
The Giants farm is nearly bankrupt, partly due to bad trades. They might try something desparate like bringing Gary Brown up all the way from AA.
On second thought, with the Giants’ track record, they’re more likely to trade Brown for a rental.
Why are we assuming that the testosterone improved his performance? After all, Marlon Byrd proved using PEDs don’t impact your stats.
Until you realize that Marlon Byrd’s stats could have been even worse.
this doesnt make sense. how do you know he would even be in MLB if he hadnt used?
Context:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/marlon-byrd-an-example-of-peds-not-being-a-miracle-cure/
Uh how does Marlon’s episode “prove” ANYTHING? Learn statistics and logic, bruh.
Based on his name, I assumed he was joking.
Not surprised. You can’t turn from an average scrub to a superstar overnight without a little help.
The irony
Is probably intentional
Not only would i not sign him for 2013,i would in my ideal
world,have his ass out of MLB for 2 years minimum.
they need to penalize the team say, 5 games for an All-Star type starter that tests positive. maybe base it on double his WAR value?
this way there are repercussions for the teams also.
He’s missing 50 games. How is that not a “repercussion” for the Giants?
It will probably cost them the playoffs.
he cheated. he’d likely be a replacement level or so player based on his year in Atlanta if we can assume he started taking PEDs shortly afterwards.
(and i’m a Giants fan)
Kirk Gibson is right when he complains about this, only thing is he sounds like he assumes that none of his players are on the juice, which is laughable if you place any stock in what Victor Conte has to say. Seems likely that at least 5 Diamondbacks are probably on the juice too.
Voted no. The reason isn’t so much what I expect to happen, but the disproportionate response if he struggles next season. Everyone will say I’m an idiot because his collapse was supposedly so predictable. I just don’t want to deal with the criticism. It’s the kind of move that costs a GM his job if a would-be contender struggles.
More pertinent question: do the Giants make him a qualifying offer (~$12.5 MM) for arbitration?
Ooooooh, you nailed it! That is truly a very interesting scenario, and not just on the level. It is the perfect scenario for the love-hate relationship between so many Giants fans and their GM.
no way they offer $12.5 mil. after this.
Even the Giants aren’t that stupid.
On second thought . . .
LOLZ! and I have Jeremy Guthrie to show for it!….wait, whut?
He pitched a shutout last night!
Not surprised at all. Not saying I necessarily suspected Melky of roiding, but I am certainly not surprised in the least that his surge in numbers was the result of cheating.
Alfonso Soriano? If the Cubs picked up enough salary, the Giants could always release him.
Just had the same thought, makes some sense, but the Cibs would have to eat a ton.
I imagine they would for the right prospect(s).
Was also thinking….
Carl Crawford? (would he get claimed at this point?)
No way would anyone claim Crawford.
The guy needs Tommy John surgery. He’s a timebomb and because of that, he has one of the 10 worst contracts in baseball.
I’d offer a 1 year contract suitable to his 2009 performance, so something around 7-8 million. Hard to believe he would regress further than that seeing as his power didn’t really jump until 2011. He’s still considered a decent OF with average-ish production at the plate.
How do we know he started using in 2010? For all we know he’s been using for a decade.
How do we know he didn’t start using in May?
Wait….so Melky isn’t a true talent .350 hitter?
The Giants will bring him back. They brought Barry back even after it was widely know he was a roider.
Barry was a little different when you consider his history with the club and his assumed talent level prior to steroid use.
Indeed. I was still surprised that teams wouldn’t take Barry when he was willing to sign for league minimum. He would have probably still been a 2 or 3 WAR DH.
yeah, but… barry was the best of all time.
No, but he may have been the best of his time.
Today I am the greatest of all time!
I’m surprised no one has brought up his very close friendship with Robinson Cano yet. Melky was eating his way out of baseball and looked awful in Atlanta, and suddenly he turned into a superstar literally overnight. Not that surprised, the incentive to earn a big free agent contract is just too tempting for most players.
What… you mean like if you had a chance to make MILLIONS of dollars… a chance to be worshipped as a star on the field, on TV, in the media… a chance to set up your family for life… and leave a nice stake to your heirs when you go…
and ALL you had to do was boost your testosterone level up a few levels…
You’d say no????
Hell. I’d be on that in a heartbeat.
See guys at the gymn doing the same thing for a lot less payoff.
And back to the original comment, is there an insinuation that Robbie Cano is using?
What does this have to do with Cano?
It seems to me like when they WERE hanging out in NY, Melky was out of shape.
It was only AFTER leaving NY that Melky got ripped.
What is the implication here?
Two things:
1.He lied to a reporter and denied it a while back, and the reporter even felt bad enough that he issued an apology to Melky in an article. Anybody that thinks Melky is better than others for admitting it is foolish. He lied just in case he somehow got out of it, and then admitted it after the fact, knowing that denying it wouldn’t do him any good.
2. After how bad his time in Atlanta was, and after his little ‘show’ this year when the giants were in town, I have a feeling that the braves clubhouse is having a big laugh right now
Melky is laughing all the way to the bank, and likely will continue to do so for some time.
What? I’ll give you that he has already made a great living for himself, but he just got suspended WITHOUT PAY, and will receive significantly less in free agency than before. Plus, if he reverts back to old Melky next year he won’t be getting anything more than a minor league deal from then on. Don’t forget that he was below replacement level in Atlanta, and just above it in NY
Except he’s not getting paid. So he won’t be going to the bank.
He’s not getting paid NOW… for 50 games. His contract this year was $6 million? (per BBref)
So, he already made 4 million dollars this year.
Next year, he doesn’t get the “crazy money” contract… has to settle for what? 5 to 10 million dollar one-year deal?
I don’t know about you, but if I was making 9-14 million dollars over 2 years… I’d be laughing all the way to the bank.
Excuse me while I shed a tear for a guy making $6M for playing a game being suspended WITHOUT PAY for cheating.
There.
The man has banked more than ten million dollars playing baseball. He’s richer than you or I will ever be. He can survive a few months WITHOUT PAY.
If you knowingly cheated in order to improve your performance, and you feel no guilt about the monetary gains you reap from that… well then, you’re just a crappy human being.
Joe, in no way, shape, or form, do I say I approve…
I’m not judging him.
I say I understand why he did it.
And if put in the same position, I’m pretty sure I’d do the same thing. Because I believe most thinking people would.
Sure, you can understand the temptation, but just because it is a decision that you would make, or supposedly “that most thinking people would make” (you clearly hold baseball players in very low regard, since the majority of players don’t take PEDs) doesn’t make it ethical.
Joe, I appreciate your sincerity, and your moral standards (and I mean that… I am not being facetious).
But if I was a replacement level MLB player, and I had the opportunity to make millions of dollars, and substantially improve the quality of my life, and the life of my entire family, forever…
and all I had to do was cheat at child’s game… a game held in disproportionately high regard (a religion?) by a lot of people, for little apparent reason, other than to kill time and enjoy watching rich guys compete…
and the only thing that would happen if caught, is that I would be shamed, and lose a small part of my fortune…
you can bet that I would be boosting my testosterone level as high as needed to make _millions_ of dollars for my family.
Period.
Yes, I have morals, and they are all well and good. The welfare of my family is far more important to me. And the shame of cheating at a boys game would be a small (insignificant?) price to pay for that peace of mind.
I think most people would behave similarly, given that circumstance.
Couple years ago I was at a lecture by a sports psychologist who studies ethics in sports. She said multiple studies over many years showed that athletes have lower ethical standards than the general public. They generally attribute that these lower standards to the fact that almost all athletes at any level learn that cheating pays off, and the payoff is great. If you’re the high school football hero and you’re dating the prom queen, whereas if you were just some dude she would not look your direction, that’s a lesson. As you advance, it becomes going from a low minors player who makes sure to have dinner with your host family otherwise you don’t eat, to $400,000 for being the last guy on the roster, then $1m or so for just being okay. In case you’re not familiar with how much money that is, it’s the kind of money that lets you live on a completely different planet from the rest of us. And when you get into multiples of it, that payoff is so staggering that we’re not talking about temptation. The only thing preventing most players from doing it is that they value their reputation more than they value more money when they already have enough to allow them to live a life apart from the rabble.
damn fool needs to get a Gov’t job – that way when you get suspended its always WITH pay.
@Phrozen
I’m not particularly wealthy right now, and I’m about the same age as Melky. I’d wager a tidy sum that eventually I’ll have a higher net worth than him, and I am not saying this to brag.
@TKDC: As they say… an athlete and his money are soon parted. Particularly true of football, but it’s surprising how many baseball players end up bankrupt.
How is ‘yes’ winning? Are you Fing kidding me? Every Braves fan is gleefully laughing at this news, as we knew Melky was garbage all along.
i wouldn’t say that he’s “garbage” just because he used roids. He’s a cheater for sure but i would say i think more highly of him than i do Ryan Braun for the way he’s handled being caught. Braun essentially got away with it and the media around here are happy to give him a pass for some reason (Bruce Jenkins). If you believe Victor Conte, Braun is guilty guilty guilty.
I’m a Braves fan. I like Melky and I’m sorry that this is where his career has ended up, nothing to laugh about.
I’ve read various reflections on how this damages the Giants chances (losing Cabrera might deprive them of a victory that keeps them out of the playoffs), but there’s another way to look at it: what if the Giants win the division by one game? They are getting the advantage of the extraordinary performance their cheat has put on for a hundred games. If one member of a relay squad is found to have taken drugs the whole lot lose their medals: isn’t it time MLB started punishing teams for cheating performances, not simply with subsequent suspensions?
Yes, the Giants benefit from his cheating, but unless they had knowledge they shouldn’t be punished. Barry Bonds, which at minimum was willful disgregard of the obvious after he increased his hat size, is a different case and it might be a good idea to give the commissioner the power to vacate wins NCAA style in cases like this.
Vacating wins is literally the stupidest punishment in existence. The NCAA can say those games didn’t happen, but reality says otherwise. How about using a real punishment, like taking away draft picks or fines.
Either a game happened or it didn’t. If it happened (which it obviously did), there’s a winner. If it didn’t, opposing players didn’t accumulate hits, strikeouts, etc.
agree with that – in the case of Melky it should be about 5 games forfeited for the Giants.
Can we go back to 2009 and award the Giants the wildcard because the Dodgers had Manny Ramirez??
Totally agree Steve, this is just the lamest of knee-jerk reactions I’ve heard in a while…
i think you mean, award the rockies the division…
ok, MLB needs to start penalizing teams in the future though because this can’t continue.
I’d fish for him if I was in charge of a low budget team
I’d fish for him if I was a big budget team. I’m a Phils fan, and I’m hoping this gives them a shot at signing an otherwise unsignable player (given their likely self-imposed budget restraints, and the need to sign multiple players).
Does the AL get the World Series now?
I wouldn’t sign him, because the risk of a backslide into a bad contract is too great and if he does terribly at the starting CF, my head is going to be up to the plate for what happens, seeing as I’d be the guy who hired a PR problem that isn’t doing enough to make up for it. This is before considering the possibility that he fails another test and gets the 100 day suspension, making him useless to me and more of a PR nightmare.
Now, if he goes through all of next year without failing a test and puts up good numbers…
Somewhere, Jonathan Sanchez is enjoying a small but meaningful moral victory.
Congratulations to Jonathan Sanchez on his first win of the season!!
what does one have to do with the other? he embarrassed himself with the Royals regardless what Melky does.
maybe the Royals’ GM is saying “told you so”?
If I was a GM I’d use this as an opportunity to completely lowball him this offseason and try and get him for something like 4/32. I could care less if he’s suspended for 4 games next year and any tangible PR hit is likely erased by the team getting better.
this
If I were the Giants, I’d extend a qualifying offer to him, which he should accept. If he doesn’t, well hello draft pick.
Even if Melky is a good bit worse than he was this year, he’s still going to be well worth a 1 year deal at about 13MM. Especially to a large payroll, contending, team like the Giants, and there’s no risk beyond 2013.
Of course, there’s an argument to be made that he should take a 4/32 deal if offered.
4/32 for a mediocre player is no lowball. It would take a few highballs to offer that.
This poll is stupid. You’d be a complete idiot not to sign him to a minimum contract.
Braves fans disagree.
This. I voted no, and would have even if he hadn’t been suspended (although there would be no such poll in that case). Melky burnt his bridges with the Braves and their fans, then bought a few WWII surplus flamethrowers and went back and torched the ashes of the bridges.
If this issue is vital to the integrity of the game, then MLB needs to find a method… a system… something… that puts an END to this issue. Its ridiculous to go around blaming players, or expecting them to behave in a way that is directly contrary to their own selfish best interest. (and lets face it, enhancing your ability to make millions of dollars is CLEARLY in any player’s best interest)
Have the players urine tested after every game. Or blood tested once a week. Or x-rayed. or MRI’d. or whatever the heck is required to keep everyone in the league “clean” from PEDs. You cannot tell me that we don’t have the capability to detect the cheats (nearly) 100% of the time. Its just “inconvenient” to make these extravagantly paid prima-donnas wait around at the end of every game to pee in a cup.
So, if the only thing holding MLB is “inconvenience”… I’m thinking they don’t value the integrity of the game very highly.
So, why should we?
I’m tired of the nonsense. Expecting a young guy from the D.R. (or anywhere) who is struggling to make it in MLB to NOT try to do anything possible to make it in the MLB is simply delusional. So, either let it go, or put a real stop to it.
Isn’t Melky’s suspension evidence that they ARE testing players and catching them?
50 games is a pretty large penalty, and Melky will take a huge hit financially this winter.
I am satisfied with the way the system worked here.
Plenty of sport have made a “real” effort, but you just made a pretty compelling argument about the cheaters’ incentive…that particular arms race doesn’t always turn out the way you seem to expect.
As a Braves fan, this makes me very happy.
great, another player with a breakout late in his career turns out to be chemically drive. hate to say it but this makes all late break outs have to prove they are clean to me rather than the other way around
What a miserable way to go through life…
I voted yes, but I thought I should qualify that “yes” meant 1 year, $5 million.
I, too, except more like $3 million.
I’d take the chance to sign a good player on the cheap, but the Dodgers now have Puig in the system along with Jerry Sands so OF aren’t really a priority. Isn’t it funny how a team picked to finish last will probably win the division and the touted Angels/Giants are going to flop?
how are Uribe and Schmidt working out for you?
Thing is, with most players you say, “Well this will give him something to prove next season, so let’s take a flier on him and see if the drive for self-redemption pushes him hard enough in the gym to compensate a bit for putative PED-performance loss.”
But with Melky, who the hell knows what’s in his head? (I’ve suspected for a long time it’s just Tom & Jerry cartoons.) (In Spanish.)
of course i’d sign him. it’s an automatic below market value deal
To know whether it would be “above market” or “below market” we would need to have a better handle on Melky’s true talent level; when he started juicing; the likelihood that he will do so again in the future; etc etc. It’s hard to know what his baseline or expected performance is, thus making it difficult to judge what his fair market value is…
Any team will sign him, it’s all about the money these days. That idiot Kirk Gibson saying there should be more extensive penalties?? Right up until it’s one of his players, then he won’t think that way. The people that should be pissed are Melky’s team mates, they could potentially lose a stack of post season money because of him.
…although they might not have been in contention to begin with, without Melky’s stellar, steroid-fueled performance over the first 4 1/2 months of the season…
Without steroids Melky would have never this good a season, meaning he would have never made 60-70 million unless he didn’t get caught.
It’s quite obvious to me, he took them with KC as well, just didn’ get caught. So for a legit Melky Cabrera season we need to get back to his Atlanta days when he got non-tendered after an 83 OPS + and horrible defense.
So basically throw away the last year and a half and then make an offer.
Glad to see someone else mention punishing the ownership/management. I see the point about stripping games already played not really being a fair punishment. Back to draft pick punishments. Other options are surely out there too if we agree on this basic premise of punishing owners (well not individual owners, just corporations) and holding the business directly responsible.