Mets David Wright Not a Golden Goose (Pt. 2)
Monday’s part one piece discussing the trade value of Mets third baseman David Wright using a rumored deal that he could head to Anaheim for Peter Bourjos-plus was met with mixed reactions as New York fans rushed to defend their white knight in the face of statistical analysis. In all, it proved to be an excellent conversation starter and segue into part two looking at the Mets continued need for young arms, even with the duo of Matt Harvey and Zack Wheeler, as well as the financial freedom dealing Wright allows.
Few organizations boast two top pitching prospects the likes of former first round picks Matt Harvey and Zack Wheeler. As pitchers like Johan Santana and maybe Mike Pelfrey potentially move onto new organizations in the near future, it’s comforting to know the next wave isn’t far behind. Add Jeurys Familia and Jenrry Mejia to the mix and the downside potential of the four young pitchers appears to be two starters and two back of the pen arms at a minimum.
Zack Wheeler Video After The Jump
However, the gap to what’s next in line is cavernous as it’s difficult to identify a single dependable starting pitcher from what’s left in the organization. Mark Cohoon, Chris “Family Night” Schwinden, Brandon Moore, Robert Carson, Kyle Allen, Collin McHugh, Darren Gorski, etc., are considered more bullpen or swing types at this point. Gorski had a fantastic 2011 season, but after scouting him a handful of times in 2010, I’d need to see him put together a second stellar season in 2012 for me to become a buyer.
Any of the three of Tyler Chatwood, Garrett Richards, or John Hellweg would split the middle and form second tier of Mets pitching prospects providing additional depth on the starting pitching side. It’s certainly not sexy, but definitely something the Mets organization could use.
Beyond discussing an Angels/Mets swap, the simple fact is dealing 15 million from the active roster and replacing it with a spread of minimum salaried pieces would allow the Mets to attempt to expunge Jason Bay from the current roster. At this point, fence or not, I’m ready to label the Bay signing a disaster and cut losses if possible. His 5-600 plate appearances would be better spread across a Nick Evans/Lucas Duda platoon in left field.
Like the Braves deal of Derek Lowe, I can envision a scenario where a team would be willing to take on a wins worth of salary and Bay and roll the dice. That would still leave the Mets eating 11 million or so per year over the next two, but a Bourjos or like player would still provide excess value even after the money paid for Bay.
Additionally, the four million or so saved after dealing Wright and Bay could then be shifted toward keeping Angel Pagan who is likely to play to his 2012 salary. If Pagan can return to previous defensive form at a corner, he may prove to be a steal.
A few years from now, baseball fans are likely to reflect on Omar Minaya’s legacy during his time as General Manager of the Mets and concede he was successful at building a bench and bullpen. And while the ability to develop piece players internally is often overlooked, an Arizona Diamondbacks week in review reveals a total of eight million spread across two light hitting utility infielders and a career backup catcher. To compare, Ruben Tejeda will make 10% of what the Diamondbacks signings will net over the next two years and produced only 0.2 less WAR than the threesome combined in 2011.
The Mets organization is in a position where they have a number of minimum salaried young players on the active roster and in the upper minor leagues who should provide excess value across a number of big league roles. Of course not all will wind up being viable starters, or even big leaguers in the long run, but this team will contend again when their young arms are ready to shoulder the load. Assessing the future and potentially signing those assets to long term deals at a pre-arbitration discount is the forward thinking play and best for the financial health of the organization as a whole.
Patience is key for the Mets as Minaya’s desperation to chase the wild card previously led to the Francisco Rodriguez and Jason Bay signings. Had the Mets stood firm and invested their resources more astutely, Jose Reyes might have already been extended and the idea of dealing David Wright would be a moot point. However, Alderson took the organization over in a period of transition due to no fault of his own. Fans seem to be looking back upon the Reyes/Wright years as the golden age of the Mets the same way Cardinals fans appreciate the work of Albert Pujols. One big difference though – Pujols has rings.
Mike Newman is the Owner/Managing Editor ofROTOscouting, a subscription site focused on baseball scouting, baseball prospects and fantasy baseball. Follow me onTwitter. Likeus on Facebook.Subscribeto my YouTube Channel.
Hmm…I don’t think Minaya made the choices that he made because he was chasing the wildcard, or anything else for that matter. I think they were just bad decisions-no terrible decisions. All teams want to win; that’s no excuse to overpay for players just because you “can” by virtue of being in a big market. Turns out the Mets couldn’t even afford those players in light of their recent financial turmoil.
But I think, depending on the type of players received for Wright, if he’s traded, that the Mets could actually be a competitive team in 2012.
Essentially a lineup of Pagan(CF), Murphy(2B), Davis(1B), Duda(RF) etc. is a reasonably solid core. In addition with Santana, Dickey-if they could sign a solid #3 starter, and Niese, you have a serviceable, reasonably good rotation.
My point is this team is not eons away from contention, but the holes have to be filled sensibly, while simultaneously improving the farm system.
It’s funny though-I’m not a Met fan, but I hardly view the Reyes/Wright era as a “golden era”. Instead I view it as the failed Minaya era and also as the “ownership meddles too much era”. Take 2004 for instance where the Mets traded Kazmir for some magic beans. The bad contracts, the underinvested farm system. No no no if I were a Met fan I would be breathing a sigh of relief that the front office is willing to make the “unpopular” though long-term beneficial choices. Those are always the decisions that are most fun to be a part of as a fan.
Apart from 2004 when Duquette was interim GM (not Omar), the Mets owners have not really meddled in baseball decisions. Omar had full reign until about 2009 when he killed his own career by calling out Rubin in a press conference.
The owners problem was hiring Omar in the first place. Not in meddling.
Omar was terrible, as I said, but there is no way you could possibly know the extent of ownership’s involvement unless you were in that room with them, which I assume you were not. I don’t remember the exact events as it’s been awhile, but I do remember reading that ownership was pushing for such and such deal(s) to be made because it’s “New York”, as if silly decisions can be made there but nowhere else.
Surely that takes nothing away from Omar’s assembling a 140M team that basically finished in last place. What a joke, but then again the Mets have been a somewhat disappointing, considering their financial resources, for most of their existence, just a fact. Sandy has done a great job so far IMO which, like I said, as a Met fan (which I’m not) I would be much relieved to see this new era arrive. As a Met fan I would hope that the Wilpons don’t just on Sandy’s back if he trades Wright or lets Reyes go. Personally I think it will be very difficult for the Wilpons to bite their tongues. But who knows, this is all conjecture.
*jump*, not just on Sandy’s back. Sorry about that.
“….but there is no way you could possibly know the extent of ownership’s involvement unless you were in that room with them.”
Then how would YOU know? You were not in the room either.
Sorry, but I AM a Mets fan who has followed the team closely. I read news reports surrounding the team more extensively than you. And I am telling you, apart from isolated incidences or periods of time where their GM was on thin ice already — like the Kazmir trade, when Omar wasn’t even the GM — the Wilpons have not meddled in baseball decisions. Nor have past GMs ever accused the Wilpons of meddling. Allegations that they have by outside people have never been substantiated.
What Omar did he essentially did on his own volition or with the advice of his own people he hired. The Wilpons’ problem during this time was being stupid enough to entrust Omar with their franchise. And then to extend him even after there were apparent problems.
@VCarver…holy cow you are the stereotypical Met fan…
I NEVER SAID I knew management’s involvement; I said this is all “conjecture”…I am merely presenting my opinion on the matter.
Jeez..I don’t really know what happened and NEITHER DO YOU…I don’t know why you keep trying to convince me of this, we remain with our own opinions.
Whatever…what do you want me to say? Give Reyes 10/$300, give Wright 15/$450, sign Pujols and Buerhle to whatever they want, great.
The one thing I guess we can agree on is that Alderson should’ve gotten a better haul for Reyes than 2 draft picks. Anyway whatever no one’s opinion matters except the NY Post. Just kidding, chillax.
I agree with your comment about the Reyes/Wright era, but not with the desperation moves. K-Rod was added for big money because the Mets thought they were a closer away from the playoffs.
Then, they went an off-season losing out on other free agents and signed Jason Bay out of desperation because once again, they felt they were close enough that they could take on another big contract with some risk.
Yeah Mike that’s a valid point and to a certain extent I agree with you. But even at the time they made those deals, I just had this feeling which I sometimes have which I describe as “piling crap on top of crap,” meaning often older teams in big markets can’t resist the urge to sign “just one more” free agent, instead of going the other way, and rebuilding or at least taking a so-called “risk” (when in actuality it’s usually much less of a risk, because of the much lower cost) of giving young players a chance.
The other team that has reminded me the most of this model the last few years is the Boston Red Sox (and I guess also the Yankees but that’s going off on a tangent).
We are essentially talking about the same thing MC. They were piling in, we just have a little different feeling about what the motivation was.
“Then, they went an off-season losing out on other free agents and signed Jason Bay out of desperation”
Which free agents did they “lose” out on? I don’t quite see it this way. I don’t see Omar signing Bay as a “desperation” move. I see it as Omar trying to fill holes in the roster and shopping to fill them. In terms of Bay and K-Rod, I have no problems with Omar having pursued them. The problem I have with those two are the terms of the contracts he doled out. Omar was absolutely terrible in terms of years/dollars/options that he gave players, often bidding against himself. That $17 million 2012 option in K-Rod’s contract is the perfect example. Totally unnecessary.
Mets wanted Holliday and they wound up with Bay. I’m not sure what more needs to be said about that.
That’s not true, Mike. The Mets actually pursued both Bay and Holliday simultaneously but concentrated first on Bay. Moreover, they reached an agreement with Bay (around 12/29/09) before Holliday was even off the market (the following January).
Perhaps they might have pursued Holliday more vigorously had his price not been so high and his agent not been Boras. Regardless, he was still on the market when the Mets signed Bay.
So, since they didn’t “lose out” on Holliday, what free agents did they lose out on that winter?
Again, there was no desperation in their signing of Bay. Just bad judgment in their contract offer.
Semantics VCarver. Bay went off the board first because Holliday was a Boras client and wanted Bay to set the market. The Mets flinched and signed Bay. This doesn’t mean the Mets got their man… not in the least. Additionally, the Mets were also rumored to have an interest in Lackey and Wolf and didn’t land either. Many, including myself viewed it as a desperation move at the time and a kneee jerk reaction to a bad 2009 season.
Boras never intentionally waits for others to set the market. Quite the contrary. Other agents and their clients usually wait for top Boras clients to sign and set the market. Just like we saw yesterday with Papelbon signing before any other top closer.
The idea that Boras waited for Bay to set the market is totally fictional and can’t be substantiated.
No, the reason the Mets didn’t sign Holliday is not that they “lost out” on him. They actually had Bay in their sights first and foremost from the get go because he was more affordable.
It’s untrue to characterize that as losing out or as signing Bay a “desperation move.” It was a calculated move as the Mets targeted Bay early on in the season.
Mike, I don’t think its fair to say that Mets fans were blindly defending Wright “in the face of statistical analysis.” I do think it’s ironic that you acknowledge Gorski’s fantastic season (statistically speaking, of course), but that you’d want to see him do it again before you’re sold. That sounds an awful lot like what Mets fans were saying about Bourjos on Tuesday.
I also have zero idea as to what the last paragraph has to do with David Wright’s value in the league, or how barren the Mets farm system is, other than to troll Mets fans.
Dunston,
The big difference is that I’ve scouted Gorski pretty extensively and saw a lefty throwing 85-87 MPH with a changeup, but fringy off speed stuff. To compare my feelings about Gorski in this case to a 24-year old CF who is coming off a 4 WAR season is kind of funny – especially when Gorski is only seven months younger than Bourjos and hasn’t been above A-ball.
I’m not comparing Gorksi to Bourjos at all. I’m merely pointing out that because you have extensively scouted Gorski, you’re allowing yourself room to see beyond his numbers. But, in the very first paragraph, you make fun of Mets fans for defending Wright “in the face of statistical analysis.” So I guess if I say I’ve been watching Wright extensively for the past 5 years, and don’t think that at 29 he’s washed up, then it’s cool? Or does that also defy analysis?
I don’t have a problem w/ analytically looking at the Mets prospects (and truth be told, I don’t think Gorski will amount to much either. Old “prospects” terrify me). I do have a problem w/ the underlying snide tone and snark that seem to have against the Mets. I may be reading too much into it, but I get the sense that you’re enjoying tweaking the fanbase a bit, easy target as we may be.
And for the “Mike Minor waiting in the wings” analogy, who do the Mets have waiting in the wings to play 3B? Turner doesn’t hit will enough to play 3B, Murphy’s health is a legitimate concern, and I’m not sold on his defense. So I’m still waiting to hear why the Mets would trade their only viable third basemen at a time when his value is the lowest it’s ever been and when his contract is more favorable to the Mets than any other team. So they can resign Pagan?
One last thing about Wright and his value: on the Mets, he has to play third because they’re in the NL and Ike Davis is the future first basemen. On the Angels, he could theoretically DH and is athletic enough (judgement call, I know) to play first base, where his errant throws wouldn’t be as big of an issue. Over his last three down years, his average RC+ is 124, which would put him as the 5th best DH this year (350 PA min).
Dunston,
As I’ve said pretty much everywhere, I grew up a Mets fan in the 80’s and actually started writing for Metsgeek. I would not be writing here if Mets fans were not the backbone of my readership at Scouting the Sally.
Will I occasionally pop something “snarky” in there, sure, but most people who know me over at the other site and through Twitter would probably say I’m one of the most accessible guys out there.
The snark has nothing to do with Mets fans. It has more to do with the idea of waxing sentimentally about a player in the face of everything other than gut feeling.
In all honesty, I was trying to be nice by offering that Gorski might be something with a 2nd consecutive solid season based on being told his fastball had gained a couple of ticks. I have sources I trust. They have told me he’s better. Who am I not to believe them?
One very important fact you are not considering is that as players move up levels, numbers are exponentially more valuable. When gorski is in A-Ball, his semblance of a changeup shreds lower level hitting. There’s simply a lot more to success of a command/control MILB lefty.
For Wright, we have exponentially better and more valuable data against the best competition baseball has to offer. Realistically, the scouting should not vary wildly from the numbers. They should actually support each other pretty closely.
You are touching on apples & oranges scenarios here using broad things like stats vs. analysis vs. scouting when they actually have many wrinkles.
Mike, I saw Gorski a half dozen times in 2011. He was consistently 88-91, with the exception of one midday game in the heat of August. And the slider and change both look like they could be average MLB pitches. Not the highest ceiling guy, but I think he’s a back end SP (Dillon Gee was the last guy who was as good a “pitcher” when he came though St. Lucie).
With the change, I think he actually has two different pitches there. One is more of a split-change, which can be pretty nasty. He pitches inside effectively with the fastball, and then that splitter like thing is a put away pitch.
But he doesn’t seem to yet have that good dead fish down and away change you see from most good MLB lefties, like Glavine, or Santana, or this year even Capuano on the Mets. Kyle Lobstein was a guy who came through the FSL this year who had that pitch.
“dealing 15 million from the active roster and replacing it with a spread of minimum salaried pieces would allow the Mets to attempt to expunge Jason Bay from the current roster”
Huh? Where’s the logic in this? If they don’t trade Wright, why would that make an attempt to trade Bay any less doable than if they did trade Wright? One should have nothing to do with the other. Makes no sense.
The LOLMetz have a hard salary cap. Probably the worst decision of the Omar Minaya era.
Huh? The question is, how does trading Wright make it easier to dump Bay, which is what Mike was saying? Just questioning his logic.
One has nothing to do with the other. They can trade both or either or neither.
100% agree. It was tongue-in-cheek (even Omar wouldn’t agree to a voluntary hard salary cap). If Mike wants to treat Bay as a sunk cost, then its immaterial if Wright is traded or not.
Really? There’s no logic in taking the 15 million or so saved for Wright and then re-allocating those resources to unloading Bay?
Purging Wright AND Bay from the roster in the way I mentioned would be a +4 million savings which could then be shifted to Pagan.
Keeping Bay AND Wright is a sum total of 31 million in salary commitment to what were negative assets last season.
In total, that’s a 35 million difference overall. If you handed Sandy Alderson 35 million, I guarantee he could find a better way to invest that money than in aging former sluggers.
From international free agent budgets, to amateur budgets, to MLB roster budgets, or anything else, no team except maybe the Yankees has a blank check. Resources are frequently re-allocated as part of an overall operating budget.
To think one move does not ultimately influence another when considering 25 or 40-man rosters is simply not true. In actuality, it goes much deeper than that even.
The funny thing is you are saying, “Well Alderson doesn’t HAVE to”, but wouldn’t he be negligent in his duties if he did not maximize every plum nickel? I mean seriously… Alderson sits down to lunch with Wilpon who asks about the state of the roster and Alderson responds by saying, I don’t have to be fiscally responsible with the roster. We’re the Mets!
I guess the Braves having Mike Minor as a minimum salaried guy waiting in the wings did not matter one bit when they decided to eat 10 million of Lowe’s salary.
Yes Bay is dead wood it seems. But I just have trouble grasping how they could make ANY trade work for that guy, other than just waiving him? I mean Bay’s value right now is so, so, so, so low coming off 2 bad seasons.
Lowe at least was an innings eater or whatever but Bay is just perceived as dead wood right now. I would be quite impressed if they were able to get any salary relief at all for Bay in excess of the waiver wire amount.
MC,
If the Red Sox choose not to bring back David Ortiz for the big money he’s hoping for, would Bay not be a more reasonable option for them? Bay was a 4-5 win player in Boston. For the cost of a single win, I could see them rolling the dice.
“Really? There’s no logic in taking the 15 million or so saved for Wright and then re-allocating those resources to unloading Bay?”
While trading both is certainly an alternative option, the way you phrase it makes little sense to me. Because trading Bay is logical whether or not you keep Wright. If you keep Wright, it’s even MORE logical to trade Bay to save money. I don’t see how trading Wright makes trading Bay any more doable or logical. One move is not dependent on the other.
Mike yeah I really don’t know. I have a hard time seeing the Red Sox want to do it but who knows.
If it was me, though, I wouldn’t want to take on any more than the league minimum for Bay, certainly not more than $1M/yr. That’s not to say he won’t bounce back but I just really doubt it. The only thing to suggest otherwise is his great September last year but after two years of subpar performance? Don’t know.
And I think the park factor is largely an excuse because Bay played in Pittsburgh and he did quite well there.
VCarver,
Does Wright HAVE to go to shed Bay? Of course not, but freeing up Wright’s money makes a decision like that much easier to stomach.
One of the things I’ve learned is just how intertwined many decisions are. Think about this…. The Mets have a ridiculous amount of guys they need to protect on the 40-man or risk exposing them in the rule V. I suspect those difficult decisions will influence much of what they do.
Of course not, but freeing up Wright’s money makes a decision like that much easier to stomach.
Huh? I’m still scratching my head at the lack of logic in this thought.
Are you saying trading Wright makes trading Bay easier to stomach?? Wow.
Most Mets fans would give Jason Bay away for a bag of balls right now. It would save the Mets tons of money. It wouldn’t be a difficult decision for anyone to make/stomach — Alderson, owners, fans, the peanut vendors. The only thing stopping the front office from doing it is not one wants Jason Bay and most of his salary commitment.
With Bay, yes, eating a bunch of any players contract is a tough decision to stomach. I didn’t mention the Mets simply trading Bay AND his contract. I mention trying trying to deal him while eating a big portion of his contract because nobody in their right mind would simply just take him off of the Mets hands. There’s a big difference there.
Yes, I know what you’re saying. But it still doesn’t make any sense to say that trading Wright makes having to eat a big portion of Bays’ salary in a trade any more palatable.
That math makes no sense to me either.
If you eat $11M on Bay, that means you save $5M (in 2012). If you deal Wright as well that increases the net savings to $19M. I’m not sure where the $4M is coming from. Are you assuming you have to send 2 years of cash up front, and so applying the 2013 payment as well to 2012? So $4M net for 2012 but $17M net for 2013 (counting Wright’s $1M buyout as well), or even $31M net for 2013 (assuming Wright’s option is excercised)?
I guess I would assume the way it normally works would be you would send the cash the year it is due, which is why I found this confusing.
I do agree with Mike though that someone would find Bay worth dealing for. It’s not as though he has been worthless. Both FG and B-R have him worth 2-2.2 WAR for the last 2 years, so $5M-$6M per year (a B-R win is worth near to $6M).
Add in Bay’s previously established level of performance and the upside there probably makes him a better gamble at $5M a year than say, Angel Pagan, or whatever else you can find at that price. At least for the right team, in the right situation.
Mike, I read through your part 2 entirely, and nothing you said here really adds to your previous argument that the Mets should trade Wright this winter.
I remain unconvinced it’s the best thing to do, and still believe Wright will once again become a 5-6 WAR player for the next 3 years.
If they can trade Bay, fine. He’s old. They should do it. But I want Alderson to hang on to Wright for 2012.
What logic are you using estimating Wright as a 5-6 War Player over the next 3 seasons? If it’s just the ballpark dimension changing, I don’t think it will have such a positive reflection in his WAR. He strikeout way too much and wants to be a power hitter. He has completely gone away from the great all around hitter he was when he came up. You don’t just pick that back up. He’s also not the most naturally gifted baseball player. He got to the level he was at because he worked his butt off and was smart with his approach. It will take a lot of work for him to just get the muscle memory corrected in his swing to become the hitter he once was.
“He has completely gone away from the great all around hitter he was when he came up.”
And why and when do you think he did this? Ahhh, 2009, the year they moved into a new cavernous park! Wright was actually putting up a WAR higher than 5-6 before they moved into Citi. If in fact the park negatively impacted him, then it’s not unreasonable he could return to a 5-6 WAR player with the fences brought in. We will see in 2012.
He went away from his approach in 2008 actually. Took the league a year to catch up. They know he won’t take the ball the other way, unless he’s behind on the fastball, so they pepper him on the outside with breaking balls that he just frails at.
You know, if he had the same approach he had, he would have been a doubles machine. He may have even set a single season record for doubles in a season. He only drives the ball to left anymore. When he goes to right or right center, it’s purely an accident now.
The ballpark excuse is tired. 5-6 war hitters shouldn’t be effected by dimensions. I haven’t used a change of dimensions as an excuse with my job. I went from working in a nice office to a tiny cubicle. My production didn’t drop. I hate this cubicle, I’m claustrophobic, my ex, who I don’t get along with sits behind me and it’s an ugly shade of gray in this windowless dungeon I work in. My production hasn’t dropped!
Anything to back up your contention that Wright changed his approach in 2008 and not 2009?
No, it was after the move to the new ballpark that he started to change his approach.
And you can’t be serious talking about your office dimensions. LOL. A total waste of time. You can try to make jokes if you’re funny. But that isn’t even witty or funny.
I just was not impressed with Wright this season, watching him. Yes let’s assume he’s a good hitter. The Mets don’t really need hitting as much as they need some good defense and some excellent pitching. Enough with the bringing in the fences…I don’t think it’s had that much to do with his performance.
Even if he bounces back to being a 5WAR player-who cares?? If you get the right pieces back you’ll have 3 players at 3WAR each, locked up, long term, cheap. Say a hitter, a starter, and a reliever.
Sorry, but a 5-6 WAR player is harder to get than three 3-WAR players. It’s easy to find 3-WAR players on your own to complement a 5-6 WAR player you already have than to trade that 5-6 WAR player and expect to develop another one on the farm.
I know… a bunch of cheap assets on the 40-man and in the upper minors… An organizational need for starting pitching prospects… And an ability to re-allocate Wright’s salary figure to sign Pagan AND dump Bay for the betterment of the franchise from a fiscal standpoint.
Dealing Wright to clean up the mess makes absolutely no sense whatsoever.
Um, selling low and dumping one of the better players in franchise history for mediocre pitching prospects just so you can get rid of an albatross is beyond stupid.
Again, this idea that you have to dump Wright in order to trade Bay makes no sense. The Mets should try to trade Bay whether or not they trade Wright. And it will be hard to find another team to take Bay regardless of whether they trade Wright. Trading Wright is not going to make a prospective trading partner suddenly more receptive to taking on Bay. Trading Wright has nothing to do with trading Bay.
Why do you keep saying they’ll “re-allocate” Wright’s salary to dump Bay? They already have to pay Bay $16MM. If they dump Bay in your example, they won’t be picking up an additional $11MM. They’ll be ‘saving’ $5MM. You don’t need to dump Wright’s salary in order to save $5MM by dumping bay. That makes no sense.
I think I detailed this pretty clearly above vivalajeter and VCarver.
You clear 15 million in Wright and it simply makes eating 11 million of Bay easier to stomach. You do not need to do one to do the other, but doing both creates a total saving of 4 million versus the 31 million in salary owed to both in 2012.
Again, Mike, that makes no sense.
Eating a huge portion of a contract is never easy to stomach for a front office. Trading Wright at the same time so you can save money is a stupid way for the front office to feel better about themselves after eating a contract which essentially is an admittance they screwed up.
It’s like I sell my spare car at a loss, but to make myself feel better I sell my primary car for a profit. Doesn’t hide the fact that I still took a loss on my spare car. And after all is done, I have no car left to go drive myself anywhere.
Syler,
It’s simple to me. When this team is ready to compete for a World Series again..
1. Will Wright/Bay be key pieces in that? No
2. Will Harvey/Wheeler/Ike be key pieces in that? Probably
Shift those resources around now and cut the chord. David Wright WAS a great, great player, but as a 3-4 win player on a pretty equivalent contract, he’s much more valuable to a team who is a piece away from the World Series.
This.
For me it depends on what you think right will be going forward. If you think he’s a valuable piece who will be worth locking up long term, then maybe you don’t trade him. I’m definitely not in that camp. I see him as a player who hasn’t been at his best for 3 years now, who recently has had back issues, and who is likely to be to risky and expensive for me to want to sign him into his mid 30s.
With where the Mets are at right now, I probably wouldn’t even pick up his option in 2013 even if he isn’t traded. I’d likely rather offer arbitration then and take the picks (or pick, depending on if he makes type A or B). If you can get something better now, I’d have to consider it.
Amen to all. Trade, dump and wait with fingers crossed.
MC You are crazy to think this team with out Reyes or Wright is close to competing. They are atleast 3 years away. Yes they could strole out a decent team over the next phew years. But this team needs to focus on re-building. There farm system is ok but needs a big influx of talent to start this re-building era.
Matt Harvey, Wheeler have top of the rotation potential as does Mejia who needs to be given a real chance in the rotation. I love Mejia an wish my Redsox had him. Familia could be a middle of the rotation guy or a really goo RP well see with time. Gorski and Fullmer have upside especially Fullmer.
Davis is a very good young 1B a guy who I am high on an should make some Allstar teams. Flores has fallen a prospect a little but still could be a very good player weather he plays SS, 3B, 2B or the OF. He needs to show more of his skills an show who he is this season. Resse looks like he can become a real good 2B and Puello offers lots of upside an potentiel.Jeffrey Marte is very underrated prospect for you guys who is young an I think could be a very good he is known an people no is upside but he isnt talked about anuff yet. He needs to refine his plate aproach walk more an hit offspead pitches better. Nimmo is a stud I think. I really love an believe in him and Mets fans are saying he was a reach and mybe he could of been had when they picked in the 2nd rd but he was rising on peoples draft boards fast. You guys need to continue to spend in the Itnernationl FA market and Draft. In the Draft you have to keep taking high upside HS and the best players availible. The Mets have a better re-building start then the Cubs and the White Sox because of there farm system is a little better and have draft picks coming from Reyes and potentiely very good prospects from Wright and mybe even Santana down the road.
No let me clarify – I don’t think they could win the division or the wildcard. But they can be a >.500 team, even without Reyes and Wright…if they play their cards right and sign let’s say Javier Vazquez for example and a closer.
I mean what was so great about Wright last year? He wasn’t in the lineup for half the season because of back issues. The Mets didn’t have Murphy last year for 1/2 the season. They didn’t have Davis at all. They didn’t have Duda for 1/2 the season…and someone referred to Duda as a platoon player…no no no IMO this guy can hit. He’s a great high OBP high slugging guy who can hit for average. And they didn’t have Santana.
So those 4 guys if they can stay healthy for the whole season, that’s almost a team in and of itself, which doesn’t even include any additions that may be made such as Vazquez.
Honestly though I just don’t think Reyes and Wright are that important, in part because they will be dealing from a position of strength (offense).
A 6 WAR shortstop isn’t that important? Wow…
Reyes is a 6 WAR guy when HEALTHY. Nobody really argues that. However, is he going to be healthy? That’s where I’d err on the side of caution and pass on anything more than 3 years with an option. If another team wants to sign him until he’s 33-34, then let them. Remember, just last year it was Carl Crawford who was the elite athlete who signed a crazy deal. That hasn’t worked out thus far.
Look I know it sounds heretical and perhaps I’ll be regretting saying that later…BUT…if you want to use WAR as a metric here is Reyes WAR and age:
20…2.4
21…0.6
22…2.3
23…6.1
24…5.8
25…6.4
26…0.8
27…2.9
28…6.2
So if Reyes was hitting free agency 12 months ago instead of now, would you still be saying that? That’s the first thing.
The second thing is, yeah it’s hard to explain because it’s so anectodal, but just watching him last year…it just didn’t seem that that was what the team needed. I mean, the team has so many problems in the pitching department that I think addressing that would make this team far, far more competitive than retaining Reyes.
I don’t know, I just feel that Reyes is not that important. I know my view makes no sense from pretty much any statistical perspective.
Now, that said, I don’t know how to quantify this, but intuitively to me, would he be extremely, extremely valuable for some other team, such as the Giants? Yeah, absolutely. They should probably pay him 3/80 or 4/110. Because to that club, adding a guy like Reyes would just offset their biggest weaknesses in a really big way. But for the Mets I don’t think he’s that important, especially taking into account that they are about at least 3 players deep in the shortstop position if you include prospects: Tejada, Havens, Flores, some other guy who I can’t recall right now, etc.
I agree with the WAR assessment MC. Personally, Reyes is simply too risky due to his hammy’s. If I’m a WS contender, I could rationalize taking a big risk and throwing him a pot of gold knowing it could be a disaster. For the Mets, not so much.
Yeah like so if you’re the Giants, you’re planning Manny Burriss at SS. The Manny Burriss of a career sub .600 OPS (and negative WAR last year compared to Ruben Tejada’s +1.8 WAR, whatever that’s worth). Take the $12M that’s coming off the books from DeRosa and Cody Ross, and use that plus some additional money for Reyes.
There you have maybe your biggest weakness offensively turn into probably your greatest strength offensively virtually overnight.
For the Mets if they can get a win or two out of Tejada or whomever (and he’s only 21) that’s fine and not as much of an incremental improvement and glaring need as for some other club i.e. the Giants. Anyway that was my attempt to quantify it.
Why would the Mets sell low on Wright this offseason when they could wait until after picking up the option next offseason to see what they could get for him? His contract makes him a one year rental whether he’s traded this offseason or the next. With the walls moving in at Citi I would bet on his value being higher next offseason than this offseason.
Part 1 was about the idea of Bourjos for Wright with part two just completing my thoughts on the subject.
A viable play very well may be to keep Wright for half a season or more. However, your wanting to hold him another full season + half season means you are confident enough in Wright that the 23 million he will earn in that time could not be better spent elsewhere. Unfortunately, I am not.
I’m reasonably confident Wright will become a 5-6 WAR player again making his salary warranted. You just don’t trade players like this away when they are still in their prime. And I disagree with your assessment about how far away the Mets are from competing. They can compete next year at least for a WC, so long as a lot of things (mainly health) go their way.
The question of trading or keeping Wright hinges on two things:
-what level of confidence do you have that wright is a 5-6 WAR player?
-even if he is, will your team be competing for the remainder of his contract?
The answer to the second question is clearly NO. This makes wright expendable. If he can improve the future and reduce current salary by being traded, he will of course be traded to a team that thinks he can deliver 5-6 WAR again. That’s why they’re buying.
no veteran is untouchable when rebuilding. Send them all packing I say.
noseeum …
–I am fairly confident Wright will regain significant WAR by the change in Citi’s dimensions. So is the Mets front office, including Alderson. If money is supposedly tight, they wouldn’t be spending millions of dollars this winter to change virtually every section of the outfield walls if they didn’t feel doing so would have a marked impact. They are not in a position to throw around money willy nilly without a good expectation of a significant return.
–I am fairly confident that the Mets can at least compete for the WC if they stay relatively healthy. You are absolutely wrong in saying that is not likely.
And the decision to keep or trade Wright doesn’t hinge on just two things. There is also the consideration Alderson has to make that both team performance and attendance could suffer if they trade Wright (and also lose Reyes) which would mean diminishing revenues that would make it even harder on the payroll.
Simple question VCarver. How does the Mets rotation possibly keep up with that of Atlanta or Philly?
No, I’m saying that if the Mets want to get value for Wright in a trade they would probably be better off waiting until next offseason when his value rebounds from its nadir. He’ll make 15M in 2012 (which unless he has a bad season he will be worth the money), and if the Mets decide that he won’t be worth the $16M due to him in 2013 they can pick up his option and trade him.
“How does the Mets rotation possibly keep up with that of Atlanta or Philly?”
1) The Braves rotation is in so much flux right now, with Jurgens possibly being dealt in addition to Lowe, that it’s difficult to predict how well they will do next year. They will likely be using a lot of rookies next season. So anything is possible, including a decline.
2) For the Phillies, no more 4 aces. I think they will miss Oswalt. And Halladay and Lee will be 35 and 33, at risk for injury/age decline. Not saying they won’t still have the best rotation in the NL, but I would bet it won’t be as dominating.
3) Despite the superior Braves and Phillies rotations this season, the Mets hung around the WC race — even though they sorely missed Davis’ bat. They wisely gave up after further injuries to both Wright and Reyes. But point is they were competitive primarily due to their offense, which was best in the division.
4) Phillies offense may take a hit too, losing Howard for the first half, and perhaps Rollins too if he doesn’t come back. Utley, Howard, Rollins and Polanco are also getting up there in age.
wright makes up a good part of his salary by just attracting people to the ballpark. With wright and reyes both gone, citi field would be empty.
That certainly plays a factor, but if Wright is kept for that primary reason, the org. is worse off long term.
Not if he is also producing with the bat.
“I agree with your comment about the Reyes/Wright era, but not with the desperation moves. K-Rod was added for big money because the Mets thought they were a closer away from the playoffs.
Then, they went an off-season losing out on other free agents and signed Jason Bay out of desperation because once again, they felt they were close enough that they could take on another big contract with some risk.”
That is probably the biggest problem (and the NYMs are not alone). They won 70 games the season before they signed Bay. You could argue that having Reyes for a full season would add some wins, but what were their chances, realistically? They finished with 79 wins in 2010, and 12 games back of Atlanta, which sounds about right. The roster was really bad in 2009. The reason why they were mentioned in so many signing rumors, and landed so few, is that they started off with more holes.
Back to Wright, I think he has to go. They can’t compete, they already don’t draw anyone to the park, and they have some prospects to compete in another couple of years.
As a RS fan, we’re in a somewhat similar situation with Youk. I like the guy, he’s a good player, but as his salary increases, and his contributions decrease, his net value almost disappears. We’re still winning, but I’d trade Youk for an SP (Floyd) to create a smaller hole, and fill a bigger hole.
I’d be a little leery of Bourjos 124/32 K/W.
Wright is 4 years younger than Youkilis. Big big difference. One is still in his prime. One is exiting it.
The “prime” of a player has decreased since the end of the steroid area. Where it before was through the age of 32 or so, scouts will tell you they project based on what a player will be between the ages of 24 and 30. Youk is definitely past his prime, but with Wright, you are implying he’s at his peak performance years and this simply isn’t the case.
No, I am making a distinction between “peak” and “prime” with peak meaning the apex of a career, while “prime” being the years in which a player is very near his peak or producing roughly 75% of his peak.
I am not saying Wright is at his peak now or will he be in the near future.
My point is that Wright and Youkilis are in very different parts of their career and while it would be logical to try to get rid of Youkilis now, it would be a mistake to do that with Wright.
As a Bosox fan, wish the Sox could end up with a healthy Johan… not sure what that would take to get done…am drunk now and it seems easy… haha… though two of my best friends are Mets fans and I imagine that does not sound as good to them…hmm, shoe.
Assuming he doesn’t qualify for his option, it will cost $55M/2 for his services.
For an SP with 5 consecutive years of decling K/W (albeit starting from a very high level), and coming off of surgery, it would take a check for about $30,000,000 from the NYMs to make it happen.
Is the snark towards Mets fans really necessary? It hurts watching a former superstar disintegrate like this.
Also, Patrick Flood has written a really good piece on his blog explaining why it’s unlikely that moving to Citi WASN’T the main source of Wright’s decline. It’s a basic point, but it bears repeating: it’s not that the park is robbing him of homers but that his approach at the plate clearly changed from day one at Citi, as evidenced by the huge jump in K% from 2008 to 2009 (and then he likely made matters worse by trying to readjust his swing in response to his absurdly low HR/FB ratio in 2009, leading to the sharp fall in his LD% in 2010). If this is the case, then it’s entirely possible that he could eventually shift his approach back to what was successful and become at least a 4-6 win player again. The statistical analysis tells us a lot about what he’s doing wrong right now, but there’s no analysis that says that his peripherals can’t get better. After all, it’s not as if his decline makes much sense in terms of aging curves. There’s nothing to suggest he no longer has the capability to do what he used to. As long as this is most likely primarily a mental/strategic problem, there’s nothing wrong in general with Mets fans rushing to defend their white knight.
Mike you are wrong about the Mets wanting Holiday. Bay was their number one target from the get go. The Mets FO felt that Bay’s hitting style fit Citi Field better than Holiday’s. They felt that Bay would have better success because his homers were more of the “high flyball” variety, whereas Holiday would see a lot of his jacks turn into doubles. I’m on my phone so I can’t post links but I’m pretty sure I read the aforementioned FO rationale in many of NY tabloids. In any case Mets brass stated this multiple times on WFAN.
That is all true. No need to get links. I read those stories too. Their analysis said Bay would still hit a lot of HRs at Citi. Didn’t work out that way, but that’s what they said at the time.
I think they also gravitated away from Holliday purposely because his price was high and his agent was Boras.
But bottom line is that they didn’t lose out on Holliday as Mike said. They actually agreed to terms with Bay before Holliday agreed to terms with the Cardinals.
So after the fact, pieces were written and interviews were given by the Mets front office saying they wanted Bay from the jump. That absolutely HAS to be true.
I’m really trying hard to control the snark, but it becomes hard when quotes from front office staff on WFAN is used as proof and seconded by readers.
It’s basic public relations to work the media with a unified message. Living in Braves county, Atlanta is sheer genius at controlling the discussion of their prospects to the point where what is read in publications versus the actual scouting is somewhat comical at times.
That doesn’t make it factual.
It’s no different than Rick Perry working the media after his gaffe last week just after the debate.
I can’t speak for jpg, but personally I am not talking about WFAN. I am pretty careful to distinguish WFAN chatter from published reports. What I was referring to was published reports saying the Mets targeted Bay and had calculated that he would still hit a lot of HRs at Citi. Those reports also said they studied his defense and determined it was better than some widely published defensive metrics indicated and that his recent numbers suffered from the “Fenway” effect (with the Green Monster having a negative impact on range numbers).
Given this type of detail in the published reports, it does sound like they truly targeted Bay. Likely expense was also a big factor but they are not going to say that publicly.
At the same time, there is just no evidence that Holliday was their preferred or primary target that winter.
I think the NYM’s signed Bay because it was simply easier. They offered him a contract that no one else was going to come close to. As a RS fan, I liked the guy, but thought he was worth maybe $39M/3. He had a .874 over the previous 4 years, with shaky defense. Willingham has .838 over the previous 4, and Willingham’s career road OPS is higher than Bay’s. I think that’s the closest comparison. I think the NYM’s (read Minaya) didn’t want to get into a biding war for Holliday, and just wanted to get a signing done.
FWIW, if I were the RS, I’d still kick the tires on Bay and see how much the NYMs were willing to eat of his salary.