Michael Lorenzen Heads to Philadelphia, and Possibly to the Bullpen

The Phillies and Tigers are at it again. After a five-player swap back in January, Dave Dombrowski is making another trade with his former club. With the top five teams in the NL wild card race currently separated by a grand total of one game in the loss column, the Phillies, currently in command of the second wild card spot by a whopping half a game, decided to grab a reinforcement for the rotation and bullpen, trading prospect Hao-Yu Lee to the Tigers in exchange for right-hander Michael Lorenzen. They also designated veteran utility man Josh Harrison for assignment to make room for Lorenzen on the 40-man roster. And at least one Phillies player is very excited about this trade:

Brandon Marsh, who played with Michael Lorenzen in 2022 with the Angels, says he is a “great pitcher, an incredible teammate, and has big biceps.”

“He’s gonna be a great fit here. I’m super excited to see him again and give him a hug. I hope he picks me up. He’s strong.”

— Alex Coffey (@byalexcoffey) August 1, 2023

The 31-year-old Lorenzen, who will be a free agent this winter, is in the midst of his best season since 2020, running a 3.58 ERA and a 3.88 FIP. That improvement has largely come via limiting walks: after averaging a 9.9% walk rate from 2017 to ’19, he’s at 6.5% this season. He’s done that not by increasing his chase rate, but simply by throwing more pitches in the zone, with his zone rate rising from 39.8% in 2022 to 45.7% this year. Lorenzen throws four pitches more than 10% of the time — four-seamer, slider, changeup, and sinker — and is throwing all of them in the zone more often this season than last. In doing so, he traded some whiffs for some called strikes, a swap that has so far paid off. He’s also improved dramatically against lefties, with a .279 wOBA against them this year, down from a career mark of .323.

There’s a troubling trend worth noting, though. Lorenzen’s 4.80 DRA is higher than his 2022 mark of 4.32. His average exit velocity and barrel rate are at career highs, and while his .323 wOBAcon is right in line with last year’s .329 mark, his .362 xwOBAcon is the highest since his rookie season in 2015. Lorenzen might be getting a little lucky on balls in play or getting a little extra help from his defense. Both of those tricks will be harder to pull off at Citizens Bank Park than they were at Comerica Park. Still, it might help your wOBAcon just a bit when the center fielder is willing to run through a brick wall for you.

That said, Lorenzen may not be purely a starter for long. Philadelphia pitchers lead MLB with 15.9 WAR, with three of them — Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, and Taijuan Walker — ranking in the top 30 in innings pitched this season. Lorenzen’s versatility should prove a boon both down the stretch and in the postseason. Per Jayson Stark, “The Phillies are likely to go to a 6-man rotation temporarily since their next off day isn’t until Aug. 14.” In the short term, Lorenzen should take some of the burden off of starters who are throwing a lot of innings, particularly Nola and Wheeler, who combined for 419.1 innings last year between the regular season and playoffs. But between that duo, Walker, Ranger Suárez, and impressive youngster Cristopher Sánchez, the starting five is full for now.

So whether it happens sooner or later, Lorenzen will likely transition to a bullpen role. He was a closer in college at Cal State Fullerton, and although the Reds made him a starter in his rookie season, he pitched out of the bullpen in Cincinnati from 2016 to ’21 before moving back into the rotation with the Angels last year and the Tigers this year. In all, he has faced 1,409 batters as a starter and 1,457 in relief. As a reliever, he boasts 3.74 ERA and a 4.97 FIP; as a starter, he has a 4.31 ERA and a 4.47 FIP. His four-seamer has averaged 96.5 mph as a reliever and 94.6 mph as a starter. Here’s another way to illustrate that difference:

Lorenzen’s hard-hit rate immediately ticked up when he went back to starting. There’s no way to know whether that’s a coincidence or whether it would have happened anyway as he reached his late 20s, but it’s worth keeping an eye on if and when he ends up back in the bullpen. Still, simply continuing his current level of performance would make Lorenzen a useful deadline pickup — a solid back-end starter who can also provide some good innings in relief. If he’s able to improve at all coming out of the bullpen, he could be a real weapon for a Phillies team that finds itself in a big, messy fight for a wild card spot.

On the other side of the trade, the Tigers are receiving Lee, who has run a 115 wRC+ with the High-A Jersey Shore BlueClaws thus far this season. He has patience and makes plenty of contact, and if you’re a Tigers fan who would like to dream on his pop, please enjoy an opposite-field homer that he hit two days ago.

Lee signed with the Phillies out of Taiwan as an 18-year-old in June of 2021 and has a career slash line of .285/.380/.432 in the minors. At 5-foot-9 and 190 pounds, he has already maxed out his frame. After missing six weeks in 2022 due to a wrist fracture, the Phillies likely hoped that his power would increase this season. Instead, his .117 ISO and five home runs with the BlueClaws are both a shade below the marks he put up in a comparable sample size in Clearwater last season. He has dealt with injuries this season as well, so there’s still time to hope that he finds some more power.

Back in April, Eric Longenhagen ranked Lee sixth in Philadelphia’s farm system, assigning him a 40+ Future Value — a tier that he’s still in, Eric confirmed to me today. At the time, Eric noted that Lee’s MO was to crowd the plate, step in the bucket, and pull the ball for power. He’s going to the opposite field much more frequently this season, though, and while he’s still stepping in the bucket some, it’s definitely worth keeping an eye on whether this all-fields approach continues.

Defensively, Lee has seen time at second, shortstop, and third, but he’s definitely a bat-first prospect, and no one expects him to end up as a shortstop. The real question is whether he’ll be able to stick at second, where his patience, hit tool, and to-be-determined amount of pop have a better chance of making him an everyday player. For now, he slots in at No. 11 in the Tigers’ system.