Mike Trout Is Running Again (Again)

Mike Trout decided he was going to be more aggressive on the bases this year. Last season, Trout lamented that he missed the days when he was a true stolen base threat. It couldn’t have been easy for the former steals leader to watch the effects of the new rules play out around him. Like Mr. Incredible stuck in a dead-end office job, Trout longed for the glory days. I’d imagine that feeling was made all the more painful because he knew deep down that he still had the skills to achieve greatness.

Things are different this season. Last year, the Angels ranked last in the American League in stolen bases. This year, they rank third. They have a new manager and several new coaches. Trout is never one to spark controversy, and he hasn’t blamed any of his past managers for holding him back. Still, former Angels manager Phil Nevin made it clear he wasn’t all that interested in his players stealing last year, while new skipper Ron Washington and first base coach Bo Porter have already spoken about their team taking a more aggressive approach on the bases. Both mentioned Trout in particular, and Trout himself has confirmed that aggressive baserunning is a bigger part of the “game plan” for 2024.

Ahead of the Angels’ home opener earlier this month, Trout shared his stolen base goal for the season: “I think 20-plus would be cool. Thirty would be really cool.” In recent years, he has held back on the bases in an effort to stave off injuries, but he is employing a new philosophy this year: “I think if you’re out there holding back a little, I think sometimes it puts you in a worse position.” Washington took that sentiment a step further, claiming, “You get hurt when you try not to just let your natural ability play.”

I’ll leave it to the medical professionals to determine if a cautious approach can actually increase injury risk, but I will say this: Trout has played it safe for the past several years, and he keeps getting hurt anyway. Maybe it’s time he just tried to be the best version of himself when he is on the field. After all, the best version of Trout is pretty much the best player in baseball.

Trout is still fast. And not just fast for his age or fast for a power hitter, though he is remarkably fast considering his age and skill set. His 28.8 ft/s sprint speed ranks in the 91st percentile this year. In the Statcast era (2015-present), only 44 different players age 30 or older have posted a sprint speed of at least 28.8 ft/s in a season. Trout is one of only 13 to have done so three or more times. Most of the other names on that list are/were fourth outfielders or utility infielders:

Putting his speed to good use, Trout has already racked up 1.5 baserunning runs (BsR), fifth most in the American League. From 2020-23, he compiled a mere 0.7 BsR, less than half of his total from the current season. His highest BsR for a single month in that time was 0.5, in May 2021. He has not reached 1.0 BsR in a month since July 2018; he has not reached 1.5 in a month since July 2016.

A big part of Trout’s 1.5 BsR comes from stolen bases. He has stolen five bags on five attempts so far this season, matching his total from the previous three years combined. It is only the 12th time in his career he has stolen at least five bases in a month without getting caught, and the first time since 2018. Trout already has three more steals than he had all of last year; no other player (min. 100 PA in 2023) can say the same. Even if you reduce the qualifying threshold to just five plate appearances in 2023, the only player who tops Trout is teammate Jo Adell. Adell has stolen five bases in 18 games so far this year; he stole one in 17 games last season.

In addition to his stolen bases, Trout has already legged out two triples (and a hustle double). He has not had more than two triples in a season since 2018, which was also the last time he had at least two triples in a single month. He accomplished that feat every year between 2012 and 2018, but not again until now. To bring it all together, this is just the eighth time in his career he has had at least five stolen bases and two triples in the same month, and only the fourth time he has done so without being caught stealing. None of his steals or triples have been easy or fluky either. Take a look for yourself.

Here are Trout’s steals:

And here are his triples:

Stolen bases aside, Trout never became overly cautious on the basepaths, at least not to the point where it was detrimental to his club. That said, he has certainly been less aggressive than he once was and less aggressive than you’d expect for a player with his speed. The Statcast baserunning metrics go back to 2016, and from 2016-20, Trout’s advancement attempt rate was above the expected average every year. From 2020-23, it was only above average once. He was actually safe less frequently in those early years, but he still added more value with his legs:

It’s early enough in the season that a few aggressive plays can swing the numbers pretty wildly, but so far, Trout’s attempt rate above average is 14%, tenth highest among qualified players. In addition to stretching a single into a double and a couple of doubles into triples, he also tested Wilyer Abreu’s arm in right field on April 7, going first to third on a single. Abreu had 97th-percentile arm strength last year, but Trout won the battle:

Here’s where things get really fun. If Trout sticks to his aggressive approach, he has a very good shot at a 30-30 season. He is currently on pace for 65 home runs and 32 steals. Needless to say, achieving a 30-30 season is easier said than done; even Trout has only accomplished the feat once. Yet considering his current paces, his track record, the stolen base environment, and his still-elite speed and power numbers, Trout has a clear path to a 30-30 season – as long he stays healthy.

Trout only needs 20 more home runs over the next 137 games, a rate of one homer every 6.85 contests. He has homered at a higher pace every year since his first full season in 2012. The steals are less of a sure thing, but if Trout wants to swipe 30 bags, he has all the skills to get there. Eighteen players stole 30 or more bases last year. Here’s how 2024 Trout compares to those players in sprint speed and projected OBP:

Then again, this wouldn’t be the first time Trout has inspired false hope with his early-season stolen base numbers. I was planning to title this post “Mike Trout Is Running Again,” but a quick Google search came up with two previous articles already published under (essentially) the same headline: one from 2015 and another from 2018. In April 2015, Trout stole six bases in six attempts. He then swiped just five bases in 12 attempts over the rest of the season. His downturn wasn’t quite as dramatic in 2018, but once again, he started the year with 30-plus stolen base momentum before falling off the pace. He took 12 bags over his first 50 games but only stole 12 more over his final 90. This has happened before, and all we can do is wait and see if this year will be different.

If Trout can keep it up, he will become the 15th player in history with multiple 30-30 seasons. He would be just the seventh player to accomplish the feat in both his 20s and his 30s, and only the sixth player to have a 30-30 season at age 32 or older. Only one player, Barry Bonds, has had a 30-30 season at an age older than Trout is now:

What’s more, if Trout has a 30-30 campaign in 2024, there will be a 12-year gap between his first and second such seasons. Currently, Ronald Acuña Jr. and Bobby Bonds share the record for longest gap between 30-30 seasons at four years. Meanwhile, Bobby Bonds also holds the record for the longest period between his first and last 30-30 seasons at nine years (1969-1978). Simply put, it’s incredibly rare for a player to maintain elite speed and power for as long as Trout has. Heck, there hasn’t been a player who had 30-steal seasons more than 12 years apart since Kenny Lofton (Lofton had his first in 1992 and his last in 2006). On top of all that, I could also point out that if Trout steals a couple of bases this weekend against the Twins, he would be on pace to become the oldest player in history with a 40-40 season.

I know that dreaming on a 40-40 season might be too optimistic. In fact, there is a part of me that feels like anything I could write about Trout at this point in the year would be too optimistic, given his extensive injury history. Dreaming on Trout’s potential used to be this website’s bread and butter, but these days, everything you read about Trout has to come with a disclaimer: “Warning: Injury prone!” Still, I’ve decided to take a page out of Trout’s own book. I could have played it safe and avoided writing about what he might accomplish this season. But instead, I’m going to make the most of writing about him while he’s healthy. Like Trout’s aggressive baserunning, it might be risky, but it’s also a lot more fun.