Minnesota Twins Top 43 Prospects

The fifth pick in the 2023 draft, Jenkins crushed pro ball after signing to the tune of a .362/.417/.571 line, with a 90% z-contact rate during that span. His 2024 regular season got off to a delayed start due to a hamstring strain that Jenkins suffered in his first game at Fort Myers. He returned in late May, rehabbed on the complex for a bit, then returned to the Mighty Mussels roster. Jenkins’ surface stats at Low-A leave something to be desired, but he looks fine. He has been incredibly difficult to make swing and miss since his return; Jenkins has only whiffed on tape (via Synergy) five times this year and two of them were in the first game of the year prior to his injury.

Jenkins can move the barrel all over the zone with deft and explosive hands that spray hard contact everywhere. He looks most natural scooping low pitches, and because he’s still just had A-ball experience, he hasn’t been tested by big velocity at the top of the strike zone very often. Jenkins generates big power without an elaborate load of his hands, and it’s amazing how much damage he can do with such a simple swing. He had one of the better contact and power blends among the hitters in the loaded 2023 draft, with above-average pop right now that projects to be at least plus at maturity. He doesn’t run well enough to play center field and could move through the minors quickly if the Twins decide to put him in a corner and leave him there. For a teenage hitter who has barely played full-season ball, Jenkins is a pretty stable heart-of-the-order hitting prospect.

Rodriguez is one of the more entertaining and fascinating prospects in the minors, as he emphatically checks many key scouting and analysis boxes but is very flawed in other ways. What would have been Rodriguez’s first pro season was squashed by the pandemic and his next two were shortened by knee and abdominal injuries, limiting him to just 84 combined games in his first three years as a pro. He posted huge stats in those small samples and then sustained it across a full season, with an .863 OPS at High-A Cedar Rapids in 2023. Rodriguez is off to an even better start at Wichita in 2024, and while that’s a hitter-friendly environ, his underlying TrackMan data corroborates it (more on that in a second).

The thing that is going to pop off the screen at you when Rodriguez reaches Minnesota is his defense. He isn’t an elite speedster with huge range; instead, he has incredible skill at the catch point. He makes spectacular plays around the wall and while going to the ground. His reads, routes, instincts and ball skills in center are all spectacular, and right now, he has the foot speed to play there. “Right now” is key, however, and this is where Rodriguez’s profile takes a bit of a turn and becomes difficult to wrangle. Rodriguez is a stocky 5-foot-11, 215 pounds or so already at age 21. He glides around the outfield with ease at present, but whether that will still be true even three or five years down the line isn’t certain because his body is already maxed out. This might be the kind of player who ends up being an elite corner outfield defender rather than a center fielder.

Back to Rodriguez’s offense, which is comprised of extremes. He’s running a 25% walk rate and has more walks than hits as of this update. This is one of the dozen or so most patient hitters in pro baseball; Rodriguez’s swing rate has hovered around 33% in 2024, with his chase rate near 10%. He is also producing big power on contact and does so in a modest mechanical distance because he’s a shorter-levered guy. His hard-hit rate and the average of the hardest 10% of his balls in play are in Kyle Schwarber territory (their swings aren’t similar, their the data is). Rodriguez is dangerous to all fields versus pitches in the bottom two thirds of the strike zone, but he has a huge hole in his swing at the top of the zone that threatens to hinder every element of his offense. There are plenty of power hitters who make as little contact as Rodriguez does when he swings, but his issue might be more readily exploited by opposing pitchers and could be a body blow to the way his plate skills actually play. Rodriguez is probably going to hit under .200 some seasons but still get to power and walk a bunch. Very similar to Trent Grisham, except with more juice and probably an eventual sunset on his center field defense, Rodriguez is likely to be the Twins’ everyday center fielder relatively soon.

Our 36th-ranked draft prospect as a high schooler in 2019, Lee was a coveted prep player, but his strong commitment to Cal Poly (where his dad coaches) and some general concerns about his physical longevity due to a back issue pushed the industry’s assessment of him down, so he went to school. Knee and hamstring surgery effectively knocked him out for the 2020 season, but Lee raked in his sophomore and junior years with a great Cape Cod stint sandwiched in between. Before the 2022 draft there was again industry buzz that some teams were off him because of his medical, and he fell deeper into the draft than is typical for a college shortstop with his statistical track record. Minnesota sent Lee to High-A almost immediately and he raked. He had a very solid first three months of 2023 at Double-A Wichita before his performance and visual scouting look fell off late in the year at Triple-A St. Paul. There was a definite physical regression for Lee, who looked a little less trim and rangy than he did in 2022. Because of his size (Brad Miller is a fair body comp), straight line speed (he’s heavy-footed from home to first, in the 4.5s) and his medical, clubs have tended to project him to third base, and Lee began to see time there about once a week after he was promoted to St. Paul. He began the 2024 season on the IL with a herniated disc that kept him out until the end of May.

Lee is still mostly playing shortstop, and our projection has always been a little more bullish about him staying there, at least for a while, largely based on Lee’s great feel for the position. He has quick actions and is adept at positioning his body to be ready to throw as he fields the baseball, his transfer is quick, and his internal clock is well-calibrated. He finds creative ways to make timely, accurate throws, and even though it sometimes looks awkward and like he is making the play harder than it needs to be, Lee makes a lot of fun, flashy plays for a bigger dude with mediocre range. We’re less certain about his shortstop projection now than we were a year ago, though, because he looked less mobile later in 2023 and has now had a disc issue that hearkens back (ahem) to his pre-draft medical concerns.

Lee’s explosion in the batter’s box has also dialed down a bit. He’s still swinging hard from the left side, but elements of his cut have been tardy upon his return from the IL, and his righty swing is far less explosive. This could be due more to time off from hitting than physical malady; it’s something to watch as his 2024 drags on. Carlos Correa‘s resurgence makes it less imperative for Lee to be ready as soon as possible. It may be more important for opposing teams to evaluate him as a trade target. The same injury-related considerations that have us approaching Lee’s prospect grade and everyday player forecast with a light touch might also be reason for teams to be apprehensive about making him the centerpiece of a deal.

In the draft, the Twins have targeted big-framed, projectable college pitching from mid-tier schools that don’t tend to max out their pitchers. Festa has had a pretty significant velo spike in pro ball and reached Triple-A in 2023 at the very end of a solid season mostly spent at Double-A Wichita. Since turning pro, the 6-foot-6 right-hander’s velocity has grown year-over-year until he reached the 94-97 mph range his fastball has resided in for the last two seasons. His approach to pitching with his heater has changed and become less efficient as, due to a lack of explosive movement on the pitch, Festa has begun to take a slider-first approach. In 2024, his changeup usage is also up; there are entire starts where he throws his fastball least of all. He often tries to get ahead of hitters with sliders that drop into the top of the strike zone, and when Festa is locating both his slider and changeup to opposite corners of the plate, each is capable of missing bats against hitters of either handedness. Both secondary pitches generated above-average rates of chase and miss in 2023 and have so far in 2024 as well.

Festa has pitched about 100 innings each of the last two completed seasons without seeing a velocity drop off. All of his offerings are pretty firm — even his slider and changeup are often 87-88 mph — and without a pitch that more drastically alters hitters’ timing, he may end up generating more weak contact than outright whiffs against big league hitters. Even though Festa is 24, his rare combination of size and athleticism might portend another gear of arm strength and/or command as he continues to refine the feel for his endless limbs. He’s projected here as an innings-eating no. 4 starter on a contender who might have peak years as an impact mid-rotation guy if either his command or velocity levels up one more time. Festa could debut late in 2024, but he’s more likely to permanently entrench himself on the big league roster in 2025 and beyond.

Keaschall had two solid underclass seasons at the University of San Francisco before he transferred to Arizona State for his draft year, during which Keaschall hit an unbelievable .353/.443/.725. He had some first round buzz (probably under slot) and was heavy in the mix of model-driven teams because he was not yet 21 on draft day. Keaschall ended up signing for $1.5 million as a second-round pick, and his profile has changed and grown a lot since he’s entered pro ball.

The undersized Keaschall is a premium in-the-box athlete with a flexible and powerful lower body, as well as strong wrists that turn over through contact. At Arizona State he would often look a little out of control, chasing a ton and swinging so hard that he found himself off balance. This is one of the areas in which Keaschall has changed since joining Minnesota’s system. His swing rate has dropped from 50% at ASU to 38% with the Twins, and he walked more than he struck out at High-A Cedar Rapids prior to a promotion to Double-A Wichita in late May. He doesn’t have monster raw power, but Keaschall’s swing brings consistent pull-side lift to the party, allowing him to get to the power he has; this is also aided by Keaschall’s new approach, where he only targets pitches he can drive. It will be important to monitor how his on-base skills progress now that Keaschall has reached the upper minors, especially as the quality of the breaking stuff he faces improves.

The other huge variable here is Keaschall’s defense. A bad college middle infielder, Keaschall continued to look rough at second base with Cedar Rapids, DH’d for most of May, and came out the other side playing more center field and even some first base. His feel for center is predictably pretty rough, but it’s noticeably better now than when he started playing there at the beginning of the season. He’s an above-average runner but not blazingly fast, and so feel and instincts are going to be important for him to stick in center; the Twins may have an everyday center fielder on their hands if he can keep improving out there. You could argue Keaschall should be slotted behind Austin Martin on this list because they’re similar players and Martin is big league ready, but the cement is dry on Martin where it isn’t on Keaschall, who will be an offseason Top 100 prospect if he can solidify his defense in center field.

Matthews is one of a couple of pitchers (the other is C.J. Culpepper) with a deceptive, Reader’s Digest style delivery that features an abridged stride and arm action. Neither Zebby nor his delivery look especially athletic, but his line to the plate is very direct and the rest of his delivery is such a minimalistic operation that it’s easy for him to repeat it. Matthews has barely walked anyone the last half decade. Since his freshman year at Western Carolina, he has walked 48 of the 1,440 batters he’s faced (as of list publication), which is a (takes out magnifying glass) 3% rate. This is a fairly extreme control-over-command profile. Put on Matthews’ tape and he’s living in the zone with incredible consistency but isn’t dotting his pitches exactly where he wants. Because of the way his fastball plays in the zone, though, that’s fine for him. He generates a ton of whiffs up and to his arm side despite a downhill approach angle because of ride and deception. Matthews’ slider and cutter pair nicely with one another, and some of them have dastardly late bite. His sliders have enough due south movement to play as bat-missers against lefties. That’s an important component because Matthews lacks a good changeup; in fact, his changeup usage has dipped substantially this year. There’s enough here to project Matthews as an efficient no. 4/5 starter, and probably soon. Given his age and build (a barrel-chested 225 pounds), the Twins might want to hit the gas here just in case, as with some other players of this sort, Matthews is currently peaking athletically.

One of a couple of Twins mid-minors starter prospects whose deliveries make for fascinating scouting, Culpepper is like Zebby Matthews in several ways. He has a relatively maxed, rectangular frame (Culpepper is built more athletically than Matthews, however) that belies a potent blend of bodily explosion and feel for location. Culpepper’s delivery, which features a Napoleanically short arm action and stride, can make it difficult to see his athleticism because it is so odd looking on first glance, but that’s part of what makes him an uncomfortable at-bat.

Culpepper lacks an overt platoon-neutralizer, but his repertoire is otherwise a lot like Zebby’s. He throws a lot of well-located cutters in on the hands of lefties and tries to rush his heater past guys at the letters. His slider has enough depth that it can be used as a backfoot weapon against lefties to get a chase, but he has to nail the location for it to be effective, whereas Matthews’ vertical fastball/curveball split is more dramatic and gives him better margin for error in this regard. That’s virtually the only thing separating these two and you could easily prefer Culpepper because of the way his body’s put together. A few of our sources pointed to Culpepper as a candidate to be a Top 100 Prospect this offseason. He’s currently on the IL with an forearm strain, but if he returns and pitches his way to Double-A before the end of the season, he’ll have made a pretty good case for himself. He’s got no. 4 starter upside and is tracking for a 2026 debut.

Raya still has the look of a no. 4/5 starter, but the restrictor plates haven’t been taken off of his innings load and we don’t know for sure if he can fill that role under the stress of a big league starter’s workload; he is still only going three or four innings at a time. Raya has a lean, slight frame with limited strength at present, a very compact arm circle, and a high arm slot. He’s coming off a 2023 season that covered 62.2 innings between Cedar Rapids and Wichita, striking out 25.3% of batters and posting a 4.02 ERA overall as a 20-year-old. He’s on pace to work about 85 innings in 2024, going three or four innings per start with six days of rest in between.

Raya’s fastball is sitting 94-96 mph, but he’s struggled mightily to generate whiffs in the zone with it against Double-A hitters; some of that seems to be because there’s a lack of deception in his delivery, which looks easy to time. His mid-to-upper-80s slider projects to plus with its sharp two-plane and downer shapes; it has had no issues missing bats, especially against righties. The changeup, with it’s limited action and velocity separation (87-90 mph), continues to lag behind the rest of Raya’s arsenal, but he’s added a cutter this year to go along with his vertical curveball to better combat left-handers. The curveball is a deep 12-to-6 breaker that shows above-average tightness and, at 80-84 mph, offers a significant separation in pace from his fastball. Raya’s new cutter is short but quick, and will serve as a pitch to stay off barrels rather than completely miss them. This is Raya’s 40-man platform year and we officially have him on the starter/reliever line until we see him stretched out more than he has been so far.

The fifth overall pick in the 2020 draft, Martin was seen by many teams as the best pure hitter in the class, but his position and power projection were both questions that went unanswered during his draft spring, which was shortened by the pandemic. A contact machine, he struck out just twice in 69 plate appearances during his COVID-shortened 2020 college season, but Martin struggled at shortstop and only had a few games in center field before the shutdown, not enough for teams to know whether he could actually play there. The Blue Jays drafted him and sent him directly to Double-A in 2021, then traded him to Minnesota as part of the José Berríos deal. He’s spent the last couple of years in the upper reaches of the Twins system before debuting at the start of 2024.

Martin has sustained his plus contact ability against upper-minors arms, but he still hasn’t solidified himself as an average defender at any one defensive spot. Instead, he’s mostly playing a mix of CF/LF, neither of them particularly well. While many aspects of his profile are either middling or murky, Martin is going to hit. He tracks pitches well, his swing is compact, he can move the barrel around most of the zone, and he has lovely inside-out feel that allows him to pepper the oppo gap. He’ll hit for lots of contact and projects to be a versatile enough defender to play a part-time two- or three-position role of modest impact.

The Twins have all these athletic freaks on their complex, but little Dameury Pena is pretty easily the best hitter of the bunch and might be the best prospect if he can find a way to stay on the infield. Decked out in shin and elbow guards that make him look like a walking pack of Starbursts, Pena has uncommon explosion in his hands for a player his size and remarkable feel for hitting the ball where it’s pitched. He has oppo gap power if you want to work away from him, and he’ll snatch fastballs up around his hands if you dare try him in there. His walk rate so far in the 2024 FCL is more than triple his strikeout rate. Don’t confuse that for patience — this is a swing-happy hitter, it’s just that it’s so hard to make Pena swing and miss that eventually FCL pitchers are walking him, though more because of their control limitations than Pena’s plate skills. Pena has played a mix of second base, third base, and left field. Eric saw him play the latter two during his recent Florida jaunt and Pena approached balls too slowly as an infielder. If indeed he ends up an outfielder, Pena will need to hit so much that his game power outpaces his raw, as he’s a smaller guy not likely to add a ton of strength as he matures. The way he’s looked so far in 2024 makes that seem like a possibility. This is a very special contact hitting prospect who might back his way into defensive versatility as he and the Twins search for a position.

Acquired from the Dodgers for shortstop Noah Miller, Doncon was a 2021 and 2022 backfield bat speed prodigy who looked like he could become a slugging middle infielder. His buggy-whip swing style, body projection, and struggles on defense and with chase prompted Alfonso Soriano pipedreams (and more level-headed Esteury Ruiz comparisons) at the time. Doncon had a mediocre 2023 with the bat — .215/.283/.368, albeit with a career-high 14 homers — but he looked much better on defense.

He currently has the actions and arm strength for shortstop, but he’s still young and has a lot of room on his frame, which means he may yet outgrow that position and move to either second or third base. Doncon’s pitch recognition isn’t great, and he’s a bit more chase and whiff prone than is ideal, but he has good power for a hitter his age and is probably going to grow into more. The longer he can stay at short, the better chance he gives himself of being a useful big leaguer despite his flaws. The Twins have two seasons to develop Doncon before they have to decide whether to expose him to the Rule 5 draft, and realistically they have another year or two beyond that to let him barbecue on the 40-man if they really want to. He brings an element of upside to their system as well as an element of risk. He finally hit his way out of Low-A and has had a solid first month in the Midwest League for a 20-year-old.

There was a point during the international amateur scouting process when it sounded like De Los Santos was going to be a Yankee, but instead he went back to the open market and got just shy of $2 million from the Twins. There are some scouting concerns that De Los Santos is going to strike out a lot, but he checks every other box. He’s an electric athlete with plus bat and foot speed, plus future raw power, and a huge arm. An athletic fit at shortstop due to his physical tools, De Los Santos’ hit tool doesn’t even have to be very good for him to make a big league impact if the rest of his skills are as advertised. He’s off to a strong statistical start in the 2024 DSL, but the way his front side is bailing toward third base throughout his swing is indicative of future plate coverage issues against sliders. It’s far too early to care about that, though, and Daiber is extremely talented and exciting despite the risk.

We’ve tended to be lower than consensus on righty corner bats with plate discipline issues, and Gonzalez, who was acquired from Seattle as part of the Jorge Polanco trade, is one of these. Harold Ramírez is a pretty good comp for what Gonzalez looks like as an athlete, and for what he does and does not bring to the table as a hitter. He’s chase prone but has the bat-to-ball skills to make up for this to some degree. Already quite physically mature and much less projectable than the typical 20-year-old corner outfield prospect, Gonzalez’s short levers make him very difficult to beat within the strike zone, and he punishes mistake breaking balls. His squat, nearly maxed-out build helps contextualize his measured peak exit velocities (which are a 40 on the big league scale) and caps his future power projection because he doesn’t have room for more mass on his frame. As a corner-only defender, this is kind of scary. Currently rehabbing from a lower back issue on the complex in Fort Myers, Gonzalez projects as the short side of a corner outfield platoon.

Cespedes is a rocket-armed third baseman with strikeout issues who spent 2023 treading water in his second season at Low-A Fort Myers. He’s taken a substantial leap this year and now looks like he’s got a small shot to be an everyday third baseman, though he’s more likely a platoon infielder.

Cespedes’ swing path leaves him very vulnerable to fastballs in the upper part of the zone, but he’s otherwise a dangerous all-fields hitter. He’s carried his 2023 plate discipline improvement to High-A and this relatively new selectivity has helped him get to more of his power in games. He has plus strength and bat speed and is capable of hitting some titanic pull shots, especially if you hang him a breaking ball, and Cespedes has a hard-hit rate up around 50% as of list publication. He has good horizontal plate coverage and at times shows feel for flattening his path in an effort to close the hole he has up around his belt, but he isn’t doing so consistently. It’s fair to be skeptical of Cespedes’ offensive performance because he’s 23 and still in A-ball, but he has pretty big tools and a favorable handedness profile, and his strikeouts haven’t yet spiked despite a glaring flaw in his swing. He’s also begun to branch out on defense, playing some second and first base. He should be promoted in the second half of the season to see if he can sustain this kind of offensive success at Double-A. If he can, then Cespedes will be in position to be added to Minnesota’s 40-man roster after the season and compete for big league playing time in 2026.

Soto has a huge arm and has held mid-90s velocity for the better part of the last three years, but his fastball plays below its velocity due to a lack of effective movement. It forces Soto to pitch more heavily off of his promising secondary pitches, which he doesn’t have the command to execute consistently right now. Soto struggles to work efficiently, running deep counts due to an inconsistent release and foul ball after foul ball against his fastball. His slider is nasty. It will span the 83-87 mph range and has late bite. Right now, however, Soto is throwing a ton of changeups, as if it’s a developmental priority. It was an inconsistent pitch in high school and remains so, lacking movement a lot of the time.

While in high school he had some bodily and mechanical similarities with same-age Bryan Mata (mature frame, a relatively low slot but with an upright lower half), Soto and Minnesota’s strength and conditioning program have made some positive progress. Soto looks leaner and twitchier in 2024 than when he was an amateur. He has such big arm speed that it’s unreasonable to expect Soto to have touch-and-feel command right now. We can project on his control and changeup a fair bit here, but the fastball shape problem might be harder to solve, as Soto might have to locate it more precisely than we can reasonably project in order for it to be an impactful pitch. We still think the $2.5 million Minnesota laid out for Soto was pretty steep given his particular issues, but he’s already improved on some of that stuff. There’s still considerable relief risk here, but it’s easier to see a mid-rotation ceiling now than when Soto was in high school.

Morris transferred from Colorado Mesa to Texas Tech for his fourth year of school as the Red Raiders tried to Voltron together a weekend rotation made up of transfers. He covered both of Minnesota’s A-ball affiliates in 2023, throwing 84.1 frames of 2.88 ERA ball and striking out 79 batters while only walking 19. He got off to a great start at Cedar Rapids again and was quickly promoted to Wichita, where Morris has continued to avoid walks but has dealt with a dip in strikeouts. He has a medium frame that has room for added weight but probably not enough to project velo growth.

Morris’ delivery is weird. He has a high front side throughout his delivery and creates a slight crossfire angle with his stride direction before throwing out of a high arm slot. It’s rare for cross-bodied pitchers to also have a north/south arm slot this extreme and it seems to disorient hitters. Morris’ four-seamer has been sitting 92-96 mph in 2024 and holds its plane very well, which allows it to sneak past hitters’ bats in the zone at a high rate. He has two distinct breaking balls: a 74-79 mph curveball that is a deep, gradual breaker, while the slider is a sharper, sudden two-plane downer at 84-88 mph. Morris will throw his changeup to both left- and right-handed hitters, and it now projects to be an average offering for him if he’s able to maintain the fade and sink it currently flashes. The 87-92 mph cutter shows effectiveness in crowding left-handed hitters with its late movement. This is an atypical mechanical look for a starter, but the pitches are there. We feel pretty confident Morris is going to be an impact arm of some kind, be it in long relief — where his deception could make him dominant across multiple innings like peak Yusmeiro Petit — or as a shorter-outing no. 4/5 starter.

Bohorquez looks, rather soundly, like the best pitcher on the Twins’ Florida complex roster and like one of the higher-upside arms in the entire system. The physically mature righty will command a 92-96 mph fastball that sometimes has 19 inches of vertical break. Off of that he locates an upper-80s cutter to his glove side and then pulls the rug out from under hitters with a slower, mid-70s curveball that features 2,800 rpm of spin on average. He is going to carve up complex-level hitters all summer with this kind of stuff and, based on how advanced his feel for location is, he might not meet any resistance until he reaches High- or Double-A. Look for Bohorquez to develop something with some arm-side action like a split or changeup, something he can use to thwart lefties. That’s virtually the only thing standing between him and a contender’s no. 4 starter projection.

As a wild freshman at Alabama, Prielipp looked like he might be an eventual top-five pick because of the quality of his stuff, primarily an upper-90s fastball and a devastating slider. He dealt with a couple periods of injury culminating in a Tommy John surgery in late May of 2021 that kept him out for the entire 2022 college season. He threw a bullpen for scouts near the end of the college calendar and then threw again at the 2022 Combine, in both instances sitting 92-94 mph with a more consistently short arm action than he showed before he blew out. Prielipp’s slider was arguably the best pitch in the whole 2022 draft, but he came with more relief risk than most of the other college pitchers projected to go in the first two rounds, and he ultimately went in the second.

Prielipp did not pitch at an affiliate after signing with the Twins but was nails during 2023 spring training. Specifically, his slider was spinning with its usual 3,000-ish rpm, but it had added a few ticks of velocity and suddenly resided in the upper-80s, which is rare for a pitch that spins that fast. Prielipp’s changeup also looked better than it did in college. The shorter arm action helped him sell it better than he was able to at ‘Bama, arguably giving Prielipp a greater chance to start than was thought before the draft. It took all of 6.2 innings for him to blow out again, and he had the internal brace style elbow procedure in July of 2023. He is currently on the 60-day IL, which leaves open the possibility that he’ll pitch at some point in 2024, perhaps late in the year and then at instructs (if the Twins have it) as a bridge to the Arizona Fall League. The 2025 season is Prielipp’s 40-man platform year, making it very likely that he ends up in the bullpen so that his innings count and roster timeline are a better match.

Roque is an exciting, high-upside DSL righty with a long-levered, projectable frame and big arm speed. His delivery is a little inconsistent right now, but it’s very explosive, and Roque is already sitting 92-95 and touching 97 at age 17. He also has a mid-80s slider with plus-flashing two-plane tilt. The better ones have slurve shape, while the bad ones look like cutters. If Roque were a U.S. high schooler, he’d get $1.5 million or so in the draft. You can go crazy projecting on Roque’s command because of his arm speed and athleticism, and he arguably has more ceiling than several of the other pitchers in this FV tier, but he’s just so far away and risky that it’s difficult to rank him ahead of those guys.

Woods Richardson was a two-way high school prospect who created varied opinions as a draft prospect because he was young for the class but not all that physically projectable. The Mets gave him about $1.8 million as their second rounder; Woods Richardson was flipped to Toronto as part of the Marcus Stroman trade and then came to the Twins at the 2021 deadline as part of the José Berríos deal.

Woods Richardson’s fastball lost a couple of ticks in 2021 and lived around 90 mph until 2024, when he’s had a three-tick bump and is suddenly averaging 93 mph. His command, as well as the ride and deception created by his perfectly overhand trebuchet delivery, helps his fastball punch a little bit above its weight class. His slider usage has also ticked up in 2024. The change in his approach to pitching and an across-the-board uptick in velocity hasn’t made any of his pitches play like a plus bat-misser, and he relies on his slider to induce weak contact. If there’s a concerning regression here, it’s that SWR’s changeup, once projected as a plus pitch, has looked pretty generic for the last two years. He commands it, but it lacks the powerful tailing action it showed at peak. It’s usually hard for pitchers with a due north arm slot like Woods Richardson’s to turn over their changeup, and as his velocity and the whip and looseness of his arm action have slipped, so too has the pure quality of his cambio. A rebound in this area will be a key for him hitting his ceiling. There’s no plus pitch here, but there are four viable offerings that all move in different directions, as well as sentient command of them all. This is typical of a backend starter.

The former second-round pick produced a .288/.366/.493 slash in his 347 trips to the plate at Cedar Rapids last season before scuffling to a .226/.329/.305 line in his 207 plate-appearances in Double-A Wichita to end 2023. Schobel’s back in Wichita, where he’s yet to figure out Texas League pitching; he has an OPS around .640 for the Wind Surge at the time of this writing while striking out about 25% of the time and walking at a 12% rate.

Schobel hits out of an upright, slightly open stance with a leg lift trigger, and he has consistently aggressive intent in his hacks. There’s length in his swing as well as loft in the path, with fringe-average bat speed that has proven to be especially vulnerable to velocity on the inner half of the plate. He’s doing a good job of staying in the zone and currently has an overall chase rate under 20%, but Schobel hasn’t been able to do damage against more advanced pitching.

Schobel has increased his infield versatility and has now played left field plus every infield spot but first base, most frequently appearing at the hot corner and shortstop. He has plus arm strength that profiles well for the left side of the infield, with the hands, lateral quickness and range to project as average at short and a tick better than that at third. It doesn’t look like Schobel is going to hit enough to be an everyday player, but he is a future utility type even if the bat doesn’t take a drastic step forward.

Camargo was perhaps the most anonymous member of the Kenta Maeda/Brusdar Graterol runway-clearing deal, but he’s turned into a big leaguer. The physical Colombian slashed .259/.323/.503 at Triple-A in 2023 and is slugging again in 2024 despite missing time at the start of the season with a forearm strain. Camargo’s prodigious arm strength also appears intact after the IL stint, as he’s popping 1.9 and below much of the time. He’s worked to become not only a viable defensive catcher but a pretty good one. He isn’t an especially mobile ball-blocker, but he’s gotten pretty good at throwing his gut in front of the baseball, he has a great arm, and he’s become a viable receiver. Camargo packs a wallop at the dish, but he’s still far too chase prone to rely on as an offensive player with any kind of regularity. He has Diet Jorge Alfaro ingredients and has put himself in position to be a bat-first backup.

Olivar has a swing style that is starting to permeate throughout this organization, one akin to Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s, with an open stance that closes to a narrow base before the hitter’s actual move back toward the pitcher. Olivar’s hands are loading super high and deep, and at times he’s late getting into the hitting zone, especially against lower pitches. But Olivar’s offensive performance has been similar to last year’s in most facets, except he’s hitting more home runs and is on pace to nearly double last year’s total. It will mark three consecutive years of impressive offensive output from the powerful youngster, who has a rather well-rounded skill set for a potential catcher.

Olivar’s frame is muscular, bordering on maxed out, and will need to be kept in check as he traverses the minors, especially since we’re talking about a currently below-average receiver who needs to stay mobile and flexible to execute other aspects of catching well. He has the arm for it but will need to develop as a pitch framer. The Twins have given him run at several other positions, most recently left field, as well as second base and center field in the past. Occasional time in the outfield might enable him to back into some positional versatility and give him a better chance of contributing to a roster since there probably isn’t enough impact here for Olivar to be the primary catcher. He is making a push to be added to Minnesota’s 40-man roster after the season and could be part of their big league timeshare starting in 2026.

The scintillating Chivilli was ranked seventh in the 2023 international amateur class and signed for a little over $2 million. He has a long-levered, projectable frame, runs a 6.5 60-yard dash, has a 70-grade arm, and also has exciting bat speed. Scouts who’ve seen him in Florida are very excited about his power potential; Chivilli is built like Fernando Tatis Jr. and has a chance to grow into serious juice. He’ll probably have to in order to profile because he is an extreme power-over-hit prospect. He was billed as a guy with hit tool risk before he signed and has only reinforced those concerns in pro ball, as his batting average rests beneath the Mendoza Line for the second consecutive season. It’s plausible he’ll get better feel for his body and swing as he matures, but it’s rare for hitters who struggle this badly early on to hit their originally perceived ceiling. There’s still potential for Chivilli (pronounced chivee-YEE) to become a flashy-but-flawed big league shortstop, and if not, it’d sure be interesting to see his frame and arm strength develop on the mound.

The youngest player in the Luis Arraez/Pablo López swap, Chourio is a projectable, switch-hitting outfielder who showed precocious feel for contact at the rookie levels before struggling mightily to adjust to full season baseball in 2024. This is especially evident on defense, where Chourio looks totally lost in center field and uncomfortable in the corners. He does not approach the baseball with confidence, nor does he communicate with the other outfielders very well. Chourio’s contact performance has also backed up a bit, not really due to any kind of skill regression or new vulnerability (his chase is slightly elevated, but nothing crazy), but because Chourio simply has not gotten any stronger and is struggling to handle the bat with precision and authority. He’s still as skinny and frail-looking as he was last year, but he only just turned 19. Chourio has pretty good barrel feel from both sides of the plate for a gangly switch-hitter his age. His seeming inability to handle center makes it very important that, in the next two years or so, we start to see him add strength the way a college prospect would as they approach age 21 or 22. This is still a fair prospect and there’s been no change to Chourio’s FV grade from last year, but he is treading water right now.

Funderburk is a deceptive, low-90s lefty with a sneaky fastball that competes at the belt even though he only throws about 92. He generated what was then a career-best 35.7% K% at St. Paul in 2023 while maintaining a groundball rate north of 50%. In 2024, he’s been back and forth from St. Paul and the big league clubhouse. Before the season Funderburk was evaluated as an up/down reliever, but he’s consistent enough and has an effective enough fastball duo to project him as a steady middle relief piece.

Funderburk hides the ball well and the flat line on his heater is tough for hitters to get on top of when he locates to the top of the zone. This version of his fastball often has natural cut, but Funderburk also has a sinker variant with drastically different movement. The split in horizontal movement between these two pitches helps to keep him off the barrel and generate a ton of grounders. Funderburk also has a low-80s slider that has continued to play like a plus pitch in his 2024 big league sample. He’s a contender’s second bullpen lefty.

Henriquez was part of the 2022 Mitch Garver trade, coming over from Texas along with Isiah Kiner-Falefa that March. He got his first big league cup of coffee at the very end of the 2022 season then was injured during 2023 spring training (right elbow inflammation; he had a PRP injection) and put on the IL for the first time in his career. When Henriquez returned, he was put in the bullpen and struggled. His approach to pitching has shifted in 2024, as Henriquez is pitching heavily off his secondary stuff and generating more groundballs. He attacks with his 87-91 mph cutter early in counts and then uses a plus-flashing changeup to finish hitters off, while his four-seamer has become a tertiary offering. Henriquez is a very athletic little guy who should refine his command over time and end up a reliable middle reliever.

Bowen was a nice Mariners draft find from Division-II UNC Pembroke who had something of a breakout at Modesto before he was dealt to Minnesota as part of the Jorge Polanco trade. Though he’s already in his mid-20s, Bowen is rather lanky and projectable, both from a body and pitch design standpoint.

Bowen’s heater sat 95 early in the 2023 season as the Mariners deployed him for just a couple innings at a time. As he stretched out, his fastball velo backed up into the 92-95 mph range on average and has been in that range again this season. He has real talent for spin; Bowen’s slider has big natural action and the potential to be a plus pitch if he can command it more regularly. He approaches hitters at the letters with his fastball and then peppers the glove side of the plate with cutters and sliders. Because his arm action is a little long and low, it’s not typically the sort on which we project huge changeup growth, but Bowen is coming out of such a small program that it’s plausible the Twins will help him find a split or something like that. It’s important that he does to give him a weapon that plays on the arm-side part of the plate. Otherwise, he’s probably a reliever, though a lack of command might already push him in that direction. Bowen has been on the IL with an elbow sprain since June 7. His 40-man platform season is 2025 and he needs to level up from a strike-throwing standpoint to be rostered at that time. We’re probably looking at a good middle reliever here but, especially if Bowen returns healthy soon, he should be developed as a starter at least until late 2025 just to see if something clicks.

Olivares is a slightly undersized (but well built) righty who has experienced a little bit of an arm strength bump in 2024. Mechanically similar to Cubs reliever Daniel Palencia except, with a more tilted spine and northward arm slot on release, Olivares’ fastball has been in the 93-97 mph range in 2024 and features plus vertical break. He mixes three secondaries evenly: an 85-89 mph cutter, a 78-81 mph curveball and an 85-88 mph changeup. Olivares’ changeup flashes big lateral action and his curveball plays nicely as a strike-stealer, but it’s his funky uphill cutter that is actually generating the best rate of whiff among this group. Olivares needs to find better feel for release if he’s going to have the command to start. He has a realistic multi-inning relief fallback because of his repertoire depth and might throw even harder in such a role.

After taking his lumps as a 19-year-old in the Florida State League in 2022, Rosario posted a .831 OPS with 21 homers for Cedar Rapids in 2023 but also struck out a worrisome 29.6% of the time. The power hasn’t surfaced at the same rate at Double-A so far in 2024 as it did in Cedar Rapids (which is odd in Wichita), and while he’s cut his strikeout rate by a tick (27%), it’s still higher than we’d like to see given the lack of power production on the season. Rosario has plus raw power, but his path is on the flat side of the spectrum and he’s running a groundball rate right around 50% this season, the combination of which doesn’t allow him to get to anywhere near the raw juice he shows in BP. Defensively, he’s still handling the corner outfield spots, where he’s showing more consistent routes; he can be expected to provide average defense in both corners. This is still only Rosario’s age-21 season and he could be a swing tweak away from a breakout. His current issues have us projecting him as a lesser option in the short side of a corner outfield platoon.

Winokur signed for $1.5 million as a power projection prospect with hit tool risk in the third round of the 2023 draft. He’s played several positions during his first full pro season, including center field, though he had only played the infield in the last month or so leading up to this update. Winokur had amateur experience at shortstop and in center but he was projected to either right field or third base in pro ball given his prodigious size. He has plenty of arm for the left side of the infield and is surprisingly rangy for a guy his size, but he isn’t a great bender, and especially as he fills out, Winokur is basically a lock to move to a corner. This is where Winokur’s strikeout issues begin to loom large. While he’s shown all-fields power in Fort Myers and has even flashed an ability to square up fastballs around his hands (a rarity for such a long-levered hitter), Winokur is struggling to recognize spin and has a 17% swinging strike rate as of list publication. There are a handful of big leaguers who whiff about that much (Nick Castellanos, Nolan Gorman), but Winokur is doing it in A-ball. He’s a high-variance corner prospect with big time tools.

Born in Puerto Rico and raised for a bit stateside, Mercedes eventually settled in the D.R., where he became a prototypical right field prospect with plus potential power and arm strength. The Twins signed him for $1.7 million in January of 2022 and he had a raucous first pro season in the DSL, slashing .355/.420/.555 and swiping 30 bags. He looked good during Eric’s 2023 trip to Florida for extended spring training, but he flopped when Complex League play officially began and only hit .196 all summer. While he isn’t striking out any less than he was last year, Mercedes’ offensive performance is heading in the right direction, as he’s been less chase prone and has changed his swing to a more level, balanced cut. His hitting hands are incredibly explosive and are powerful enough that if he continues to make improvements to his OBP and hit tool, he could produce enough offense to be an everyday outfielder. Mercedes runs pretty well despite being bigger and stronger than most other hitters his age, and he still has a shot to develop in center field, which would give his hit tool even more margin for error. Of the many toolsy, volatile prospects in Minnesota’s lowest levels, Yasser is the only one who has made meaningful adjustments after his first dose of failure.

Lewis spent much of the first half of the 2024 season on the IL with a shoulder injury; not long before list publication, he entered the Wichita starting rotation after making a couple of rehab appearances on the complex and FSL teams. He threw 101.1 innings across both A-ball levels in 2023, striking out 118 batters while walking just 33.

Lewis has a low-effort, stiff delivery with a vertical slot, and he throws a five-pitch mix. His fastball is still light on velocity, and he was sitting 88-90 in one of his complex rehab outings, but the pitch will still show a hint of carry when he runs it up in the zone. There’s still obvious feel for command, although in his limited innings at Double-A so far this year, Lewis is tip-toeing around the zone more than he did at the lower levels. The curveball is a deep, vertical offering that has average tightness, while his slider is a sharper, downer type that is more capable of generating whiffs. The changeup shows both horizontal and vertical action, but it’s a more gradual movement than it is sudden, late action. Lewis is also known for throwing a knuckleball, which he’s continued to utilize as more of a supplemental pitch than one he features. He’ll throw some that really dance around and others that are more hittable. Whether the recent shoulder injury takes a toll on his already limited velocity should be closely monitored, as it may be the difference between him ending up as a back-end starter or an emergency up/down option.

Adams covered 109.2 innings in the Wichita rotation in 2023, striking out 20.3% of the batters he faced and walking 9% while also giving up 118 hits. Adams’ 93-96 mph fastball shows life when he throws it in the upper quadrants but is more running action oriented when it’s lower in the zone. He has a 83-87 mph slider that he’ll manipulate the shape of, alternating between a tilting two-planer and a sharp downer, while his firmer, 90-93 mph cutter features short, late movement. He’s toned down the usage of his changeup this year; his best ones will show average fade and sink while others have minimal effectiveness. Adams’ overall arsenal is a bit light to hold down a rotation spot at the major league level over the span of a full season, but he should be a quality spot-starter type who transitions to the bullpen once he’s out of options.

Beltre is a tightly-wound corner outfield prospect with impressive power. His best swings produce epic pull-side bombs, but Beltre’s barrel is currently much less precise and dangerous against pitches he can’t pull. He runs pretty well right now, but Beltre’s size and general stiffness funnel his projection to an outfield corner.

Laweryson has carved through the minors even though his fastball resides in the upper-80s. He reached Triple-A with a career ERA around 2.60 and a WHIP just above 1.00 with 30-grade fastball velo because of his command and the “round-up” elements his heater enjoys, mostly its uphill angle. Laweryson’s 2023 ended due to biceps tendinitis and he went on the IL this April, but he’s back and has made a handful of rehab appearances at Wichita.

There’s a good amount of funk in Laweryson’s operation; he has an extremely high front arm throughout his delivery, along with a compact, herky-jerky arm action. His unique arm action creates uphill angle on his fastball. The slider is a two-plane breaker, while his changeup has average fade and sink on occasion. Everything in the repertoire plays up due to the plus-plus deception Laweryson creates prior to delivering the ball and there’s obvious plus overall feel for filling up the zone with all his pitches. It’s a smoke-and-mirrors profile that typically fits as an up/down relief option.

Salas was ranked ninth in the 2019 international amateur class and actually got his first pro reps in Venezuela during the winter of 2020, when his would-be stateside debut was delayed because of COVID. Salas hit well in 2021 and 2022, spending the latter season split between the Florida State and Midwest Leagues before wrapping the year in the Arizona Fall League, where he looked talented but exhausted, which was especially noticeable in his defense. Over that winter, Salas was traded to Minnesota as part of the Pablo López/Luis Arraez deal, and he has struggled to hit since joining the Twins system.

Salas has also begun to play many different positions. He’s lined up everywhere but first base and catcher so far in 2024 and has been playing the infield less and less frequently as the season has gone on. It’s a clear sign the Twins think his best shot at being rostered will be defensive versatility. There was justifiable concern about Salas’ relatively mature frame potentially filling out in a way that cost him some explosiveness, and it appears as though that’s coming to pass. It takes so much effort for him to swing hard now that he often doesn’t track the baseball well. Rather than moving through the minors quickly as a polished everyday shortstop prospect the way he was projected a couple of seasons ago, Salas is now more of a fringe prospect struggling to hit his way out of the Midwest League.

Wosinski had Tommy John in 2020 at Akron, transferred to Oakland University, struggled there, went undrafted, latched on with the Eastside Diamond Hoppers of the independent United Shore Professional Baseball League and signed with the Twins in May of last year. They skipped him over Low-A in 2024 and sent Wosinski straight to Cedar Rapids, where the 6-foot-8 righty is having success as a long reliever. Wosinski’s size and huge stride down the mound generate over seven feet of extension. His low arm slot helps him create huge tailing action on his changeup and makes his breaking ball a nightmare for righties to pick up. He’s only sitting 91-94 and his feel for release is extremely crude, but this is a very interesting older dev project who could be a funky big league “look” reliever who works multiple innings.

A 2021 undrafted free agent signed out of an NAIA school (USAO is the Drovers), Velez could become the first ever big leaguer from that program. He is having success as a multi-inning reliever at Cedar Rapids thanks to the quality of his secondary stuff. Velez doesn’t throw very hard, but he’s athletic and has an aesthetically pleasing arm action. His ability to locate his cutter makes that offering really sing as a bridge pitch between his fastball and slider. Mixing his pitches evenly makes him unpredictable enough to avoid damage versus his heater, and his repertoire should play an inning or two at a time in low-leverage situations.

Severino was part of the group of prospects cut loose from the Braves for their previous regime’s malfeasance, and while he’s performed at an above-average level since hooking on with the Twins, he’s fallen down the defensive spectrum and is striking out a ton. Still, Severino has big switch-hitting power, especially from the left side. He can’t really play defense anywhere, but he could be a dangerous bench weapon who can do damage from both sides of the plate.

McCusker spent parts of three seasons playing for the Tri-City Valley Cats in the Frontier Independent League prior to being signed by the Twins in 2023, when he traversed A-ball as a 25-year-old. Across 190 affiliated plate appearances last season, he posted a .264/.326/.540 slash line with 14 homers but struck out an alarming 36.8% of the time. He’s striking out less in 2024 but is also struggling to get to his plus raw power.

McCusker’s size is incredible. This is a broad-shouldered 6-foot-8 guy with a tapered waist who walks around at 250 looking like Aaron Judge in the uniform. He uses a leg kick trigger and has significant loft in his bat path. There is length in his swing due to the length of his levers, and pitchers have had success crowding him on the inner part of the plate to keep him from getting extended. He also swings inside a ton of sliders. McCusker’s plus raw power presents itself in game action when he gets pitches on the outer third, and he can produce power to all fields in that location. He’s splitting time between the corner outfield spots, where he’s a limited defender. In his brief time in affiliated ball, he’s done the bulk of his slugging against left-handed arms and he looks to have the ceiling of a bench outfield bat who will need a favorable matchup to warrant penciling in the lineup. Still, we think this guy could play upper-level pro ball forever, or be a KBO slugger.

Built like an NFL cornerback, the sinewy Castro generates real pull-side thunder with his hands and does so in a short distance. He’s not an especially loose athlete or rotator, but his combination of present power and body projection makes him a high-ceiling corner outfield prospect. The Twins gave him a sizable $2.4 million bonus in 2023 and international scouts have big expectations for his showcase tools as Castro fills out. He’ll likely trend to a corner outfield spot as that happens, putting pressure on the hit tool to be a 40 or better so Castro can get to all of this projected power. He K’d at a very scary 33% clip in the 2023 DSL and is off to a similar start in the 2024 FCL, where his swing looks out of sync. On this update he falls into a “toolsy late-blooming flier” FV tier, as he looks like a low-probability proposition.

Hall posted a sub-3.00 ERA in each of his last two seasons at Southern Miss thanks mostly to his plus changeup. His low-slot sinker/changeup approach has been enough for him to comfortably thwart Low-A hitters in 2024, but his heater sits about 90 and will be tested by upper-level guys. His slider command needs to improve in order to force hitters to respect both halves of the plate. He has spot starter projection.