Top of the Order: It’s Time for Trader Jerry To Add Bats
Welcome back to Top of the Order, where every Tuesday and Friday I’ll be starting your baseball day with some news, notes, and thoughts about the game we love.
The Mariners are in the driver’s seat in the AL West, with a 5.5-game lead over the Astros, and an 80% chance of making it back to the playoffs after narrowly falling short last season. And considering that they just played their 81st game last night, a tough 4-3 loss to the Rays in which they led 3-1 entering the eighth, now seems like a good time to evaluate what moves president of baseball operations — and notorious trader — Jerry Dipoto should make between now and the July 30 trade deadline.
Seattle’s success has been driven by its pitching, especially its starting five. Only the Phillies, Yankees, and Orioles have gotten lower ERAs out of their rotation, and after play concluded on Sunday, Mariners starters had pitched 23 more innings than Yankees starters in the same number of games. The M’s arguably have three aces in Luis Castillo, George Kirby, and Logan Gilbert; their fourth and fifth starters, Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo, aren’t too shabby either. Woo’s innings will probably have to be managed carefully down the stretch after he began the season on the IL due to forearm issues, which also have caused him to leave a few starts early. He was removed in the fourth inning of Monday’s game with right hamstring tightness, though it’s unclear yet how much time, if any, he will miss. Either way, the Mariners can withstand a limited or absent Woo because of how many innings the front three are able to cover.
Their relievers are generally doing their jobs as well, with the group ranking 13th in bullpen ERA entering Monday, and co-closers Andrés Muñoz and Ryne Stanek have done a solid job finishing off games. The depth of the bullpen was supposed to be a strength entering the season, but with Matt Brash and Jackson Kowar out for the season and Gregory Santos yet to throw a pitch this year, the Mariners are a little thin in the middle innings. Still, Santos is expected to start a rehab assignment soon, and the lower-level bullpen issues ought to be easy to address with minor moves between now and the trade deadline.
Seattle’s tepid offense, on the other hand, won’t be such a simple fix. Its 97 wRC+ ranked 17th entering this week, and the guys who were supposed to be carrying the lineup (Julio Rodríguez, J.P. Crawford, Cal Raleigh, and offseason additions Mitch Garver and Jorge Polanco) have all been below average over the first half of the season. Strong contributions from Luke Raley, Dominic Canzone, Dylan Moore, and Josh Rojas — along with a resurgence from Ty France — have kept the offense from being even more disappointing, but this lineup still isn’t good enough for the Mariners to make a deep playoff run.
Raleigh is the only Mariners player with at least 10 home runs at the halfway point of the season; he’s pacing for 26 homers, four fewer than last year. Rodríguez’s power is also down this season. He’s launched just seven home runs after putting up his first 30-homer campaign last year. It’s worth noting that Rodríguez struggled through the first half of 2023 as well. At this point last year, he had 13 home runs and a 104 wRC+ before exploding for 19 dingers and a 145 wRC+ the rest of the way, so the Mariners should be confident that the 23-year-old phenom will turn things around. However, even with Julio at his best, Seattle needs more offense.
There will, as always, be rental bats available. Guys like Tommy Pham or Josh Bell (especially if he’s on one of his yearly hot streaks) would certainly help the Mariners add depth and lengthen their lineup, but they need a game-changer, someone to make pitchers sweat, and nobody like that exists on the rental market unless the Mets are willing to trade Pete Alonso. So Dipoto might have to go big, even if he has to give up Miller or Woo or a top prospect like Harry Ford or Cole Young in such a move. Here are some of the players the Mariners should target in a trade:
Risky Rooker
Brent Rooker is good at one thing: hitting the crap out of the ball. He’s best suited as the DH instead of playing the outfield. He also walks at a solid clip and strikes out a ton. But when he does connect, few hitters in the league make more optimal contact. Rooker is above the 90th percentile for xSLG, barrel rate, hard-hit rate, and sweet-spot percentage (he’s better than Luis Arraez there!), helping him pop 43 homers since the start of 2023 after being claimed off waivers by the A’s in the 2022-23 offseason. Most importantly, his power plays anywhere: He’s got 13 home runs this year, and he’d actually have a couple more if all of his batted balls were in Seattle, per Statcast.
The thing about Rooker is he’s streaky. Last year, he had a bonkers 232 wRC+ in March/April and then posted monthly marks, in order, of 77, 74, 144, 94, and 159 the rest of the way. This season has been a similar story. He had a 122 wRC+ over the first month and a 185 mark in May, but he’s down to 84 in June. Still, even a streaky Rooker would benefit the Mariners, especially because he’s under club control through the 2027 season.
Trading With A Familiar Team
The Rays are never ones to shy away from trading off their big league roster, even when they’re in contention for a playoff spot. And they’re certainly never ones to shy away from trading with the Mariners, with last offseason’s José Caballero-for-Luke Raley deal the most recent example in a long line of swaps between the two teams.
While the Mariners were interested in Rays third baseman Isaac Paredes last offseason, I’d argue that acquiring him wouldn’t work out well. Paredes has made a name for himself with his signature pull-side power, but that approach wouldn’t be as beneficial if he were playing his home games in Seattle. According to Statcast, only six of Parades’ 11 home runs this season would’ve been gone at T-Mobile Park, which has extremely hitter-unfriendly park factors; this year, the environment is reducing batted ball distance by an average of six feet, not good for a hitter like Paredes who relies on optimal horizontal spray angle.
Randy Arozarena has struggled mightily this season, and Brandon Lowe is too injury-prone to be relied upon as a true lineup-lengthener. But how about Josh Lowe? He’s missed some time this year due to injuries, but he’s mashed when healthy and boasts plus power and speed. Like Rooker, Lowe is controllable; he isn’t set to reach free agency until the after the 2028 season. For this reason, the Rays would ask for a lot in return. But Lowe would be an excellent fit for the Mariners, essentially the lite, left-handed version of our next and final trade possibility.
The White (Sox) Whale
Injuries are always going to be at the forefront of any discussion about dynamic White Sox center fielder Luis Robert Jr. Most recently, he missed 55 of Chicago’s first 79 games this season after re-injuring the same hip that limited him to 68 games in 2021. But what he did last year, in his first and only full season, should make teams looking to upgrade their lineup drool at the possibility of acquiring him. Robert has 40-homer power and the speed to swipe 20 bases. He’s also an excellent defensive center fielder with a strong throwing arm, tools that should make him an elite right fielder — where he’d almost certainly slide because Seattle already has Rodríguez in center.
Robert is not without his flaws; in addition to his injury history, he strikes out a ton and doesn’t really take walks. But he would clearly be the second-best position player on the Mariners and the game-changing force they most desperately need. And while he’d cost a king’s ransom that might decimate the Seattle farm system, this is the type of move that fits the Mariners perfectly. They would get a player whose raw talent equals that of Rodríguez and one who is under club control through 2027, courtesy of two $20 million club options that they would surely pick up.
Will the White Sox move him? There doesn’t seem to be anyone untouchable on Chicago’s roster, but general manager Chris Getz has every right to ask for the moon. Are the Mariners willing to fork it over to get another star? They should be.
While Robert is very good when he is playing, it feels hard to justify giving up what will be the White Sox’s enormous asking price to acquire him. He has been injured so frequently you do not know what you are getting. The upside is Robert plays 130+ games with 4 WAR a year the rest of his contract which becomes a bargain deal. However, the downside is he may only half a seasons worth of games each year and misses the playoffs.
Given the quality of the Mariners farm system and young MLB players, they may be one of the few teams who could take the risk and it be okay if the downside scenario does play out. It really comes down to the Sox’s asking price. I’m sure it would be Woo/Miller + a top prospect like Cole/Colt Emerson + another maybe 45+ FV prospect.
One problem with the White Sox current predicament is they find themselves needing hitters more than pitchers, but you typically don’t get back hitting prospects for hitters at the deadline unless they are very young because if Seattle had a near-MLB ready hitter, they would play him instead of trading for Robert.
You never have enough pitching, so they might trade him for pitchers anyway and figure they can maybe flip those guys for hitters later. I don’t know how interested they are in 20 year olds in A ball because they may be delusional and think their timeline is closer than that.
They could follow the Atlanta model, where in the mid 2010s they accumulated as many pitching prospects as humanly possible for trade or development fodder while rolling the dice on international prospects frequently.
Except they don’t go after international prospects unless they are Cuban.
Honestly, the problems with this organization run deep and come straight from ownership. They show no signs of changing no matter which of his buddies he hires.
Julio, Celestin, Arroyo, Clase, Jeter Martinez: not Cuban. Oh, but Montes is. You win.
He’s talking about the White Sox
Sure, but they really just need everything. It’ll take years of work — and more than one trade — before the core of the next good White Sox team is in place.
(Also, yes, they’re probably delusional and think they’re closer than that.)
Would the White Sox still think their timeline is close if they went and traded Robert? While I don’t love the idea of trading a monster haul for him given the health issues, the Mariners probably match up with them as well as anyone. Montes, Young, Emerson, Ford, Celesten, and Farmelo are 6 of my favorite really young hitters. Something like Young, Celesten, and a couple more of Seattle’s 7th to 20th best prospects would be a fair return for Robert, I think. I think CWS would want more, but I’m not sure they’d find more out there. I’d do that if I were the Ms. Maybe CWS would give in and take it if and when they don’t find the Soto level deal out there.
In addition to this, you are losing a lot of his value by bumping a true center fielder off of it.
When your third outfielder is Haniger or Canzone, having the first two be true centerfielders isn’t such a bad thing….
Isn’t the goal to win a World Series rather than worry about losing value on which guy (Lou or Julio) plays center?
Because while you can always use more offense, there additional range in the outfield usually leads to diminishing returns.
Back in 2019 if you put Kevin Kiermaier, Manny Margot, and Harrison Bader in the same outfield you’d have nearly the whole outfield blanketed; anything that has any chance of getting caught would get caught. But you’d also have a lot of scenarios two guys converging on the same spot. You don’t get anything extra for getting two guys there.
It’s worth noting that some teams really do like to roll with two center fielders. These tend to be teams that like to Moneyball their way through things, like the Rays and Brewers. If you’re on a budget, getting an extra center fielder can help you without costing too much. But trading for Robert is not Moneyballing your way through anything. For the Mariners, it’s not super clear that adding Luis Robert would be better than adding Taylor Ward.
None of those three players you offered hit like Robert either. He gives you both offense and defense, certainly more consistent than any of those three. The point is that Robert makes them substantially better and increases their chances for this season and coming ones.
Ward fits as well. He’ll be less expensive in prospects, but primarily because he’s older, cheaper, and has less control. For all of the kvetching about Lou Bob’s health, Ward hasn’t really been an iron man himself (just one season with more than 100 games). Ward helps, but Robert is better (and with more risk and a higher cost ) if they want to aim for the moon.
Or…hell, empty the farm and trade for both. Raley is over his skis right now, anyway.
Idk where you’ve been but winning championships is downright archaic and insanely inefficient. Value, defined as Production (all hail) over salary with consideration to age and years of control (so hot), is what sport is about. Sport itself is more a tool to syphon public funds, put out military propaganda, eat up decades of time and energy for billions of people, give them stuff to rage at, give them stats to always so smertly come to overpaidz and/or aging, eat up massive amounts of resources, perpetuate dying, long failed systems yada yada. Maybe the only championship in the sport that matters is the $/WAR belt
I’m not sure this is true. Betts provided great defensive value moving from a premium position to a corner outfield spot. He may be the exemption to the rule, but it’s possible.
A lot of that was because Fenway Park effectively has two center fields (in the actual center field and right field). There are definitely situations where it can be necessary (at Fenway, Coors, Kaufman, etc), and other situations where it can also be cost effective (cheaper to find a good defender than a good hitter). I’m not sure any of that applies here.
That’s a risk I’d take in DiPito’s position and he’s probably less risk averse than I am. It’s hard to see Josh Bell and/or Tommy Pham making much of a difference and Brent Rooker could evaporate like Jack Cust. Robert gives them a 5th all-star caliber player and someone to take the attention off Rodriguez
Maybe Reinsdorf could vote Robert into the HoF to boost his trade value a bit
The injuries cast a lot of doubt on his future, to the point where I don’t think the White Sox are going to get the return they are looking for. The best time to deal Robert was last offseason, when he played basically a full season and the Padres were flailing around looking for a center fielder. The second best time will be the moment when he’s been healthy long enough that teams forget about how much he’s been hurt. And while that day might not come, it certainly isn’t now.
Right now he probably gets an FV50 as a headliner, probably with an FV45 / 45+ and a couple of FV40/40+ types. Something like Mick Abel, Justin Crawford, and a couple lower level prospects. But I would probably not take those deals now if I were the White Sox. I would wait for him to get healthy.
This is pretty much right. If he’s healthy from here on out and produces, maybe this offseason is the time to trade him. I don’t think he’ll fetch what they want if he’s healthy for the next five weeks.