Montero May Be the Better Value
Although it would be obviously too easy to turn the prospect packages offered to Seattle for Cliff Lee by the Yankees and Rangers into Jesus Montero versus Justin Smoak…we’re going to go for it anyway. When it comes down to it, the tipping point in Jack Z’s mind wasn’t Blake Beavan or David Adams, but rather the blue-chip cream fillings in the middle of the prospect pies. Although the Mariners ended up sending Lee to Arlington, they might have been better off seeing him in pinstripes.
To put things in perspective, I want to assess this breakdown as a competition for future value. Most importantly in baseball is offense. While Justin Smoak certainly has the build/repertoire of a Mark Teixeira, his minor league numbers do not completely back it up. A career .293/.411/.461 hitter in the minors, he certainly was getting on base at an outstanding rate due to a batting eye that is incredibly advanced for a young age. The pop, however, mostly came in spurts:
2008 (21 years old, A): .304/.355/.518, 62 PA
2009 (22 years old, AA): .328/.449/.481, 227 PA
2009 (22 years old, AAA): .244/.363/.360, 237 PA
2010 (23 years old, AAA): .300/.470/.540, 66 PA
As mentioned, the walk rate is clearly there at a phenomenal level, but the power has not been consistent. In the major leagues this year, as a twenty-three year old turning twenty-four in December, Smoak is hitting .206/.311/.346 in 283 plate appearances, good for just a 77 wRC+ and -0.3 WAR. Considering he’s playing in Texas during the summer, you’d expect Smoak to be able to slug better than .346 for the ~43% of a full season he’s played. While his .237 BABIP is sure to find its way higher up, we don’t know what his true talent level BABIP is; Smoak may just be the kind of hitter who consistently has ~.280 BABIPs. If so, he may have solid peaks, but lower lows.
Smoak’s biggest issue is his inability to hit lefties. Scouts who have seen him have commented on his struggles, and the numbers back it up. In the minors, Smoak hit just .215/.304/.331 versus southpaws, good for an abysmal .635 OPS. It has been the same story in the major leagues. Justin has hit just .146/.211/.268 against lefties in 87 plate appearances, costing him -8.3 wRAA and coming out to a terrible .2011 wOBA. Switch-hitting doesn’t mean much if you stink from one side.
Hitting-wise, Jesus Montero is doing well for his age. Although he has not shown the plate discipline Smoak has (although not many minor leaguers have), he has certainly provided enough pop. His minor league line overall is .308/.368/.488, showing a solid eye and good power for such a young player. Here’s what Baseball America’s scouting report said about him:
Montero doesn’t have a classic swing or textbook rhythm, but he’s gifted with hand-eye coordination, keen pitch recognition, a knack for barreling balls and tremendous strength. He can be out front or off balance on a pitch and still crush it. He covers the plate well and makes excellent contact. Montero hasn’t delivered completely on his raw power, but he’s close to projecting as an 80 hitter with 80 power on the 20-80 scouting scale. One veteran scout called him the best young hitter he has seen in years.
Simply put, Montero has some amazing ability as a hitter. Last year, in Double-A at just ninteen years old, Montero hit .317/.370/.539. Montero out-slugged Smoak by .50 points in Double-A despite being three years younger (!), and he still isn’t even old enough to legally drink yet. His power potential surpasses that of Smoak. In Triple-A this season, Montero has struggled a bit, hitting just .252/.328/.415- still a better OPS than Smoak had at 22 in Triple-A, and mighty impressive for a twenty year old.
Defensively, Smoak is considered an above average first baseman who could win a Gold Glove before his career is over, and TotalZone has been kind to him in the minors, as has UZR in his limited MLB time. But he doesn’t have the Doug Mientkiewicz-type range/hands that would give him a ton of added value in the field when struggling at the dish.
Jesus Montero, on the other hand, has a ton of issues in the field. He is described almost universally as below average behind the plate, and many people see a future move to first base because of his large frame (he gets frequent comparisons to Mike Piazza in that regard). Montere, however, has been making improvements, is just twenty years old, and has thrown out baserunners at a 22% rate in the minors. From MLB.com’s Scouting Report on Montero:
The question with Montero has always been about his defense. He’s big for a catcher and isn’t all that agile. That being said, he’s worked very hard on his craft behind the plate and showed improvement, particularly in throwing out runners, over the course of last season…
…”I want to be a catcher. I love to catch. I like to be a catcher. I like to be in the middle of the game. I mean, it’s my position. I want to play my position.”
When it comes down to it, I think Montero is the better pick due to the possibility he stays at catcher and his massive offensive potential. A bat like that behind the plate is just too valuable a commodity to pass on. Sure, Smoak can hit 30+ homers with good defense in his prime and have peak years of 6+ WAR, but he also may become a slightly better Chris Davis or Casey Kotchman (Kotchman also had a big build with a solid eye but lack of power in the minors) . With Montero, you know the bat is going to play regardless, and if he does end up at catcher, he could be one of the best players in baseball.
Pat Andriola is an Analyst at Bloomberg Sports who formerly worked in Major League Baseball's Labor Relations Department. You can contact him at Patrick.Andriola@tufts.edu or follow him on Twitter @tuftspat
No mention of the offensive context of Smoak’s AAA numbers? the PCL is a hitter-crazy environment, while the Yankees’ AA ballpark is the opposite.
I didn’t mention it because, well, Smoak had just 66 PA in AAA, and nobody should really take anything all too substantial away from 66 PA. But you’re right, Montero’s numbers in AA are even more impressive in that run environment.
doesn’t he have 303 PA’s in AAA? or about half of his minor league output?
whoops, i thought you were trying to just mitigate his .300/.470/.540 line in AAA this season. yeah, his .783 OPS over 300+ PA in the hitter-happy ballparks of the PCL is damning. great point.
No mention of Smoak’s 2009 oblique injury? That would also give his AAA numbers some context.
Dude no one can begin to evaluate Smoak and learns to lay off the slow pitches or catch up to them thats his only flaw. When i saw him get his bat on a fastball though he just crushed it o.0 if he can figure out the soft stuff hes going to great then they will probaly pitch him inside until he adjusts to that etc…
If Montero was a left handed bat then I think he would be playing for the M’s right now. As it stands I still support the Smoak decision as his versatility at the plate is obviously something that appeals to Jack Z [Ackley, Figgins and now Smoak].
that versatility appeals even with his bad splits from each side of the plate?
In extremely small samples: 130 AB versus lefties. His probablem against them has not been strike outs but pop-ups and a low BABIP. His power against lefties is middling (measured in HR/FB, not ISO, which is very senstive to small samples.)
I would suggest reading Bryan Smith’s piece on the value of Montero versus the value of Smoak in club-controlled years. It is an interesting piece, and puts this argument in some context.
I still believe that Beaven, Lueke and Lawson versus Adams and McAllister had something to do with the decision-making process.
How much effect do you think that the ribcage (?) injury that Smoak had last year had on his numbers at the plate?
The difference before and after that injury was pretty pronounced. All of his 2009 time at AAA was after the injury. Kevin Goldstein said that several scouts commented on the difference between Smoak’s pre-injury and post-injury performance.
So your saying that Montero has struggled at catcher because he is so big but you are also saying that he has the potential to get even bigger and improve his catching skills? I think you may be right that he will be the better bat in the long run but Smoak can already play 1b and he bats well from the Left side of the plate which makes a lot of sense for Safeco Field.
Where did you read Pat claiming Montero would get bigger? I’ve watched Montero in person a handful of times this year, and IMHO he’ll probably be around a win below average defensively. Without knowing how easy it is for a catcher that young to improve, perhaps he can work his way to average. -10 isn’t good, but probably plays at catcher for 3-5 years.
My bad….I read that somewhere else. I still dont think that he stays at catcher.
Pat, I think for first time I actually agree with something you write. Pls next tell everyone the Mets are the best team in baseball so I can say you are an idiot. Thanks in advance
“.215/.304/.331 versus southpaws”
Wow, how much worse could he be if he just batted lefty all the time.
Even if he faced only lefities, all it would mean is he would fit right in with the other Ms infielders:
Figgins (2B) .235/.332/.276
Lopez (3B) .240/.270/.340
Josh Wilson (SS) .265/.319/.344
jack Wilson (SS) .250/.264/.323
That is a group right there that makes you not ever want to watch professional baseball if it involves the Ms.
Can everyone please stop treating small samples of Smoak’s performance against lefties like they are statistically significant?
So are you saying he is just as a good against lefties as he is against righties? Should we just burry our heads in the sand an ignore what little information we have?
Yes, /strawman/ I’m saying that he’s obviously just as good against lefties as righties /strawman/.
“Don’t pretend this is statistically significant” means “we lack evidence to make a conclusive judgement”, not “we should make whatever assumptions we like.”
Wait, my sarcasm radar is not working correctly today, can you explain that again…what are you saying, and in what context/post were you complaining about with respect to looking at Smoaks’ splits against lefties?
He’s a prospect. All prospects have small sample sizes, that’s why they’re still prospects. You have to do the best with what’s available.
But if people are going to claim that Smoak’s ability to switch-hit makes him valuable, it’s entirely reasonable to look at his splits. You can’t make a claim, then dismiss the only relevant evidence available out of hand. Smoak might be able to technically swing a bat from the left side, but he has never shown an ability to actually hit from there. And even with the small sample size warning, that remains a valid observation.
Nobody’s saying Smoak will never be able to hit as a lefty, or even that his splits so far represent his true talent level. All the splits do is raise a flag against the argument that his switch-hitting adds significantly to his value. It’s entirely valid to think that the possibility for improvement is significant enough to still increase his overall value, but that doesn’t mean it’s not valid to raise a caution flag based on the splits so far.
It’ll be great for the M’s if he can be an effective switch-hitter, but the most important thing at Safeco Field is that he can hit from the left side.
I can’t help but think that if Smoak weren’t a switch-hitter and was simply a lefty who could mash righties but had some issues with LHPs — like most guys — we probably wouldn’t be having this discussion. A lot of good hitters have platoon splits. I think it’s kind of weird to expect a switch-hitter to not have a preferred side of the plate.
This isn’t directed at any comment in particular. Just something on my mind.
This.
Switch hitting is an asset, if you know- you actually hit the ball. Since he’s picked up a wood bat, he hasn’t hit lefties, no one can deny that fact.
“A lot of good hitters have platoon splits. I think it’s kind of weird to expect a switch-hitter to not have a preferred side of the plate.”
Um, who said he can’t have a preferred side of the plate?
Going .215/.304/.331 against LHP is not about having a preferred side, it’s about not hitting LHP, at all.
Sure. I’m just saying there’s been more attention paid to it than there would be if he weren’t a switch-hitter.
And he had a huge BABIP split in the minors, too, with an insanely high IFF% that seems likely to come down a good deal. Maybe he can’t square up a pitch, maybe it’s just noise, I don’t know. It’s a concern, for sure, but I’m in no rush to judgment. I want to see more.
Well, there’s more attention to it because it’s been cited in his favor. People aren’t looking at his splits because he’s a switch-hitter, they’re looking at his splits because the fact that he’s a switch-hitter has been cited as one of his strengths.
Also, thus far, he doesn’t just have a preference for one side. Right now he’s putting up Curtis Granderson splits, not normal-handedness-preference splits. Small sample size, etc etc, but this isn’t just a slight difference. He is very good from one side of the plate, and barely above the Mendoza Line from the other. And that would be fine–plenty of players have crazy splits and still do fine–except if you consider his ability to switch-hit to be one of his strengths over Montero.
@Rex
In the case of people simply citing his ability to switch-hit as an advantage over Montero, I agree with you. Switch-hitting doesn’t mean anything if you can’t hit at all from one side. I’m just far from convinced that that’s true in Smoak’s case.
Anyone else think that while Montero and Smoak are somewhat comparable players the Mariners just didn’t want to hand the World Series to the Yankees?
Honestly, I wouldn’t be surprised if that was why.
No, I don’t think that.
No, unless they’re insanely stupid. What do the M’s care who wins this year. All they should care about is taking the return on Lee they like best.
No. Fans think that way; front offices don’t.
While as an O’s fan, I’m happy he didn’t go to the American League team from New York, I’m guessing that, all things being equal, the M’s would have preferred to send him to the Bronx instead of to a divisional opponent.
I doubt they really cared. The M’s aren’t competing with the Rangers this year, and Lee’s a free agent in a couple of months.
If I were an O’s fan, I’d be wishing he went to the Yankees. In 2011, he will likely be a Yankee anyway, and 2010 is a lost cause in Baltimore anyway, so why not wish for as much talent to leave the Yankee system as possible??
Jay Yencich did a post a few days ago over at U.S.S.M. “Smoak and Mirrors: a Look at Splits” As the name implies it takes a look at Justin’s splits, but comes to some different conclusions.
Tiny URL to the article: http://tinyurl.com/2fxpanh
I’m not sure there’s enough sample size to make a reliable prediction that he will have a big platoon split.
73 PAs in the majors versus lefties plus how many in the minors. His total minor league PAs is 492 in the minors, I wasn’t able to find his minor league splits so I can’t say how many he’s had in total versus lefties as a professional. But I’m assuming it’s significantly less than 500 PA, which appears to the level needed for predictive confidence. I’m not saying he won’t have a platoon split but it’s a bit early to say that’s it’s bad.
He’s had 130 AB v LHP, per Zombie’s link above.
Yes that is a SSS, no one said he will never hit LHP, but as of right now, he hasn’t.
130 minor league at-bats plus another 90 plate appearances in the majors, combining for about 1/2 a season’s worth of pure terribleness versus lefties. I’m not saying this is 100% indicative, as sample size mitigates, but it’s not out of thin air. I’ve seen scouting reports that have also mentioned his weakness against lefties.
That is a good piont Pat, why don’t we go and watch video of how he actually swings against left hand pitchers and see if it is like how he swings against right hand pitchers, just like you J.Bay articles with screen shots from different parks and different angles. That article was FANtastic.
the underlying assumption of the article may well be incorrect. I think Beavan was a HUGE factor in the deal. he projects as an innings-eater, and cost-controlled that provides massive value to any team, especially those outside NY, Boston, Philly, LA Chicago.
The underlying assumption of the article is definitely incorrect as it mentions at least once that Montero’s value is still tied to his being a catcher. With Posada going, going…. there should be no doubt that Montero would not have been traded for 3 months of Lee is there existed ANY possibility of that being possible.
He’s a DH who has not proven he can advanced pitching yet. Seattle FTW
Hmmm… well when has Smoak proven he can hit advanced pitching? Dirty Water FTL! (Not sure if that means For the Loss but I’m using it anyway)
While this is probably true, the Yankees are also as deep in catching talent as any team in MLB. Perhaps they feel that while Montero could be a below average catcher, they have Austin Romine, who will hit less but provide much better defense. I agree the Yankees probably don’t believe he is Posada’s replacement, but that isn’t the same as saying Montero can’t catch in the bigs.
Also, Montero has hit “advanced” pitching better and each minor league level, at a younger age, and certainly at AA in a rougher environment, then Smoak did. He simply has a better bat. The question is, is his defense at second so bad that Smoak’s plus defense at first makes him more valuable then Montero. Throw in Seattle being right handed hell as well. But to suggest that Montero is anything less then the best bat not in the majors is ignoring the facts.
There is no chance Montero sticks at catcher. Smoak’s defensive value will be enough to overcome any slight edge Montero has on him offensively (long term, that is).
What are tonight’s lottery numbers?
Smoak’s college splits:
LHP: .317 / .404 / .622
RHP: .413 / .551 / .819
I’m not sure who’s side this goes with. A .300 ISO versus lefties and a .400 ISO versus righties. On the one hand, it suggests that he will have a split, on the other, it suggests that he can drive the ball against lefties.
The Seattle PI raised an interesting point: Justin Smoak was naturally a right handed hitter when his dad suggested he try switch hitting at the age of ten. If that’s true, I’m betting that his split shrinks a fair amount.
http://blog.seattlepi.com/baseball/archives/214160.asp
Smoak was a natural righty batter? He’s a left-handed thrower.
Maybe left-handed throwers naturally have a tougher time switch-hitting from the right side than RH throwers do from the left side. JT Snow eventually gave it up because he was so bad. Lance Berkman is a terrible career hitter from the right side compared to his great LH numbers.
Whats with all the Yankee Hype? Are you a Yankee fan? Just wondering you can’t expect me to believe Montero is goona be slugging b alls out of the park in Safeco Jack did the Smart thing Safeco is terrible terrible for Righties Adrian Beltre is a good example watch Lopez get picked up by another team and do very well. There is no way Montero stays behind the plate not with his size nooooooooo way.
Forgot to mention the only person in the Texas deal who is a write off is the 2nd basemen but even he might see some time until our first rounder is read from a couple years ago Ackley Beaven will be a 3-4-5 type starter and Lueke will replace Lowe and like i said in the article he throws from 92-97 with a slider,fastball and a nasty splitter i don’t think those 2 pitchers were throw ins.