Moose Tracking
Mike Mussina has been one of the most reliable, consistent pitchers in baseball for the last 17 years. He’s tossed over 3,400 innings in his career, racked up 256 wins, and is putting together an argument for Hall of Fame induction. And, at 39 years old, he’s still ticking, helping to keep the Yankees rotation stable despite the injuries and struggles of the young hurlers on the staff.
However, Mussina clearly doesn’t have the same arsenal he had in his prime. Take a look at his velocity of each pitch type for the last three years:
Fastball: 88.6 MPH, 87.1 MPH, 84.9 MPH
Slider: 82.8 MPH, 82.1 MPH, 80.5 MPH
Curveball: 77.2 MPH, 75.3 MPH, 72.,4 MPH
Change: 72.0 MPH, 72.1 MPH, 69.8 MPH
In the last year, he’s lost about two miles per hour off each pitch in his arsenal, and he’s down almost four miles per hour on his fastball from two years ago and five miles per hour on his curveball in that same time frame. As he’s aged, his velocity has deserted him, and his average fastball is now the fifth slowest in baseball (among non-knuckleballers), behind only Jamie Moyer, Livan Hernandez, Greg Maddux, and Paul Byrd. His change-up is the slowest in baseball, four miles per hour slower than Moyer’s, who comes in at #2 on the list. He just doesn’t have the stuff he used to have, and with this velocity, he’s had to reinvent himself in order to stay successful.
So that’s exactly what he’s done. Through the first 50 innings of 2008, he’s issued just six bases on balls, a 1.09 BB/9 that ranks #3 among major league starters. He’s also posting a 48.2% ground ball rate, the highest mark he’s posted since it began being tracked by BIS in 2002. With his stuff deteriorating, he’s no longer able to rack up the strikeouts like he used to, so Mussina has essentially turned himself into a strike-throwing ground ball guy who lets hitters get themselves out by attacking the strike zone. It’s a diversion from the path he took to greatness, but considering his current skills, it’s an adjustment he had to make, and one that has worked well so far.
His FIP stands at a respectable 4.50, making him a solid middle of the rotation starter and an asset to the Yankees rotation. Considering that many New Yorkers were willing to write Mussina off after his struggles last season, it’s a testament to his understanding of his own limitations that he’s been able to find a new way to succeed even after his physical talents have eroded. Mussina is one of the best pitchers of our lifetime, and he’s continuing to find ways to get hitters out, no matter what kind of stuff he takes to the hill each day.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
He really is a curious case for the Hall of Fame. In fact, a whole chapter in my book looks at him and Jack Morris since the two are very comparable, statistically, and both do well in half of the Bill James tests. He’s been a fav of mine for a while; it’s kind of sad to think that in a few years the guys I grew up with will all be retired. Such is life.
Mike Mussina will ALMOST make the Hall of Fame.
Just like he ALMOST won the Cy Young one year. (Top 5 six times)
Just like he ALMOST won 20 games. (18+ wins five times)
Just like he ALMOST won 300 games. (He’ll end up with 260-275)
Just like he ALMOST threw a perfect game (26 up, 26 down)
Just like he ALMOST won a World Series (A Tony Womack double away)
I’d love nothing more to see him get a ring in pinstripes and make the HOF, but I’m afraid that he’s just never had that “best pitcher in baseball” period even if he was exceptional for a long time. He won’t make it, I don’t think, not in this era of guys like Smoltz, Glavine, Maddux, Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, and (ahem) Clemens.
Dave, I’ve been looking for a blog post somewhere on the internet relating to Mussina’s HOF candidacy, but I don’t think it was specifically about him. It was written in the past month (maybe 6 weeks), but I don’t remember what site wrote it. If it was you, or if you know what I’m talking about, could you link me to the article?
forget all that, I just found it at USSM
Dave,
Just another USSM reader wanting to let you know I’m reading your stuff over here. Keep it up.
What I find kind of crazy is that all of those guys with really slow fastballs actually aren’t that bad of pitchers as a group.
It’s a selective sampling issue Scappy. Pitchers with slow fastballs that are bad pitchers don’t stay in the league, so those who do tend to be better.
Should Mike Mussina be in the HOF?
Not at all.
0 Cy Youngs
0 perfect games
0 no-hitters
0 World Series Titles
0 MVPs
Nothing.
He played 18 years, 10 with Baltimore and 8 with New York. Ironically, the New York Yankees started out as the Baltimore Orioles.
During his time with the Birds:
Five-time all-star
(on a team that was an o.k. team except for ’91 and 2000, the first and last years he was with them)
MVP voting twice
Cy Young voting 7 of 10 years
Lowest Team ERA 8 of 10 years
Average an 18% share of his team’s wins
During his time with the Yanks:
Never made the all-stars
MVP and Cy young voting only one year (2008)
Lowest Team ERA 4 of 8 years
Only one year had 18% share of his team’s wins (in 2008)
The biggest thing I noticed was the fact that his completed games dropped off significantly during his time with the Yankees as did quality starts, but his innings per year didn’t. He started more games, but won less. He won more than 50% of the games he started in Baltimore, but less than 50% in New York. Even with a better team, better pitching staff, and a much better General Manager, Mussina did not fair as well as he did with the Orioles.
Mussina averaged a win less per year with the Orioles, but almost a 3% share of wins more. The Yanks averaged 32 games above .500 when Moose played with them, but when he played with the Orioles, they averaged 3 games above .500. When you look at his post-season numbers, it’s more clear why Mussina is not a Hall of Famer. He can’t win when it counts, the post-season. He’s two games over .500 in the post season and faired the same no matter which team he played for.
He played in an era where 250 wins weren’t as important a milestone as 300 wins were. He played in an era where performance enhancers ran rampant. I have been saying for a long while that players need to prove they were clean since most are hiding behind the MLBPA and not speaking up about what went on. Especially when you play on teams that had so many PROVEN users, it’s not hard to speculate that Mussina could have pitched 200 innings per year due to a little “boost.”
When Mussina left the Orioles they sucked bad, but before that they were a decent team. He never had Ace numbers and had an excellent closing staff at New York. This one, to me, is a no brainer, and I live in Williamsport, PA.
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