My Two Cents On The 2015 Hall of Fame Voting

Well, the 2015 Hall of Fame voting results rolled in Tuesday, and just about every member of the baseball media has already checked in with his or her opinion. With any luck, I’ll have the last word — at least chronologically. What are we to make of the election of Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, John Smoltz and Craig Biggio, and its resulting future impact upon the holdovers? Let’s take a look at some trends, and hone in on a couple of players most significantly impacted by this week’s proceedings.

First, let’s take a look at some big-picture trends, to see how today’s ballot logjam formed, and what — if anything — this year’s results might accomplish towards its eventual clearance:

	AVG VOTES	ELECT #1	ELECT #2	ELECT #3	ELECT #4	NEW #1	NEW #2	NEW #3	NEW #4	NEW #5	NEW #6	NEW #7
2000	5.63	Fisk	T.Perez			Gossage	(J.Morris)
2001	6.33	Winfield*	Puckett*			(Mattingly)	(Whitaker)
2002	5.95	O.Smith*				Dawson	Trammell
2003	6.60	Murray*	G.Carter			Sandberg	L.Smith
2004	6.55	Molitor*	Eckersley*			None
2005	6.31	Boggs*	Sandberg			None
2006	5.64	Sutter				None
2007	6.58	Ripken*	Gwynn*			McGwire
2008	5.36	Gossage				Raines
2009	5.38	R.Henderson*	Rice			None
2010	5.67	Dawson				R.Alomar	Larkin	E.Martinez	McGriff
2011	5.98	R.Alomar	Blyleven			Bagwell	L.Walker	(Palmeiro)
2012	5.10	Larkin				(Be.Williams)
2013	6.60	None				Biggio	Piazza	Schilling	Clemens	Bonds	Sosa	(Lofton)
2014	8.39	Maddux*	Glavine*	F.Thomas*		Mussina	Kent
2015	8.42	R.Johnson*	P.Martinez*	Smoltz*	Biggio	Sheffield	Garciaparra	(C.Delgado)
		* = 1st time on ballot				( ) = No longer on ballot

In a nutshell, BBWAA voters, jaded by a fairly lengthy period at the beginning of the century that featured a dearth of exceptional Hall of Fame candidates, fell into a habit of placing an average of five to six names on their respective ballots. Enter a massive group of Hall-worthy talents beginning in 2010 — many of them tarred with the brush of the steroid era — and the BBWAA initially reacted by… continuing to place an average of five to six names on their respective ballots. Hilariously, in 2010, the average number of players per ballot plunged to a 21st Century low of 5.10. That, despite the initial eligibility of Roberto Alomar, Barry Larkin, Edgar Martinez and Fred McGriff.

In 2013, the crunch began in earnest, with the largest influx of talent ever to appear on the Hall of Fame ballot. Roger Clemens and Barry Bonds, among the very best at their respective crafts, appeared for the first time, along with Craig Biggio, Mike Piazza, Curt Schilling, Sammy Sosa and Kenny Lofton, the latter of whom was unable to garner 5% of the vote necessary to remain on the ballot. Now this was a problem, and the BBWAA responded by matching their highest votes per ballot rate of the century, at 6.60.

Of course, with Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, Frank Thomas, Mike Mussina, Jeff Kent, Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, John Smoltz, Gary Sheffield, Nomar Garciaparra and Carlos Delgado all slated to appear on ballots in 2014 and 2015, no relief was in sight, and many started to blame the 10-player ballot limit, instead of the voters themselves for their refusal to use even two-thirds of the 10 ballot slots already allotted to them.

To the voters’ credit, they did respond a bit in 2014, electing Maddux, Glavine and Thomas immediately, and nudging Biggio to the doorstep of the Hall while increasing their average votes per ballot to 8.39. This was progress. With Jack Morris falling off of the ballot, there was plenty of capacity to accommodate the deep incoming Class of 2015.

Many are applauding the BBWAA for stopping the bleeding and electing four members. But let’s take a step back. The average votes per ballot remained almost completely steady at 8.42. This is preposterous. Any voter who looked at this year’s ballot and could not find 10 legitimate Hall of Famers really ought to have their privileges reviewed. Conservatively, I saw 15 players on this year’s ballot who I deemed worthy. If you want to take a stand on a couple of steroid guys, that number slips to 12 or 13. Any writer submitting a blank ballot, or even a less than half-full ballot is nothing more than a barrier to the essential purpose of the process: elect the worthy.

There clearly seems to have been an awful lot of coordination among groups of writers this year. The studies of Tom Tango and others document this quite well. There were those who threw Pedro Martinez and/or Randy Johnson overboard to make room for players who “needed” their votes more. Overall, I can’t get too worked up about this, as at least such writers were trying to get players elected. On the other hand, the gridlocked ballot wouldn’t be such an acute issue if the writers had done a better job a few years back when they decided Jim Rice and Andre Dawson were better players than Tim Raines or Alan Trammell.

This coordination of votes seems to have directly benefited John Smoltz. I really like Smoltz, and consider him a Hall of Famer. Is he better than Curt Schilling? Maybe. Is he better than Mike Mussina? No way, in my opinion — but we’ll get back to that. They still didn’t cast more votes overall, which remains the crux of the problem.

Let’s take a quick look at the recent vote trends for the remaining players on the ballot, and what they might mean for their chances of future induction:

PLAYER	% OF VOTE-15	% CHANGE-15	% CHANGE-14	YRS REM
Piazza	69.9	7.7	4.2	7
Bagwell	55.7	1.4	-5.3	5
Raines	55.0	8.9	-6.1	2
Schilling	39.2	10.0	-9.6	7
Clemens	37.5	2.1	-2.2	7
Bonds	36.8	2.1	-1.5	7
L.Smith	30.2	0.2	-17.8	2
E.Martinez	27.0	1.8	-10.7	4
Trammell	25.1	4.3	-12.8	1
Mussina	24.6	4.3		8
Kent	14.0	-1.2		8
McGriff	12.9	1.2	-9.0	4
L.Walker	11.8	1.6	-11.4	5
Sheffield	11.7			9
McGwire	10.0	-1.0	-5.8	1
Sosa	6.6	-0.6	-5.3	7
Garciaparra	5.5			9

Tally up the 2015 vote totals for the holdovers, and there were 4.74 votes per ballot cast in 2015 for the holdovers who will appear on the 2016 ballot. Toss in another .97 or more for newcomer Ken Griffey Jr., and probably another .77 for Trevor Hoffman, who is likely to be next year’s Smoltz. Expect Jim Edmonds and Billy Wagner to get enough votes to remain on the ballot moving forward, maybe .30 between them. It’s doubtful anyone else will survive until 2017, and the whole crew might earn .08 between them. We’re now at 6.86 votes per ballot, with no growth projected upon the 2015 actual vote totals. This means there is 3.14 votes of ballot capacity remaining — but only 1.56 if the voters maintain their 2015 8.42 vote per ballot average. The truth is somewhere in between, but unfortunately, much closer to the latter figure.

Mike Piazza is getting in next year. He went up 7.7% in 2015, when the ballot was tighter, and only needs a 5.1% increase in 2016 to get over the top. Jeff Bagwell oddly has lost votes since 2013, and is very unlikely to get all he needs next year. The 2017 or 2018 ballots could be his chance to get in. Tim Raines made a big move this year, almost guaranteeing his eventual success. My best guess is he won’t quite make it next year, but he’ll move into striking distance to make it in his last year of eligibility in 2017. Curt Schilling’s big 2015 move greatly increases his eventual chance of induction. He’ll absorb quite a bit of Smoltz’ ballot space next year and move into strong contention for induction by 2018.

Clemens and Bonds? This is where a critical mass of the electorate is making their stand on performance enhancers. It’s silly to me, as these two are inner circle guys who would have easily been Hall-worthy with or without the “help” they are likely to have received along the way. Draw the line at Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa, Rafael Palmeiro, for whom performance enhancers may have been the different between really good and truly great, I get it. Draw it at two of the best players any of us will ever see, I don’t. Best guess: 2019 is their year, when the BBWAA can conveniently pass their vitriol over to the potentially newly eligible Alex Rodriguez.

Trammell has no chance, at least until his case passes to the Veterans Committee — or whatever they call it these days. In my mind, this leaves three very interesting cases in the lower reaches of the 2015 list of vote-getters. Gary Sheffield is one. I’m on the fence about his Hall-worthiness, but he is a unique offensive player for his time. A power hitter who didn’t strike out. What a concept. He wasn’t a very good defensive player, but man: 509 homers, .393 OBP, 140 career OPS+, 300 more walks than whiffs, 253 steals. Oh, and he quietly had 202 postseason plate appearances, posting a .401 OBP and winning a World Series with the Marlins.

The two other very intriguing cases belong to Edgar Martinez and Mike Mussina. Edgar’s timing really couldn’t have been worse, showing up on the ballot right before the massive talent influx, and then having five years of eligibility shaved off at the back end of his eligibility period by a rule change that really hurts no one but him. Anyway, check out this list of all-time leaders in the career combined number of standard deviations above league average in OBP and SLG:

NAME	QUAL YRS	SEASONS	CAR STD OBP	CAR STD SLG	CAR STD PRD	CAR OPS +
Bonds	21	1986-2007	54.26	48.93	103.19	182
T.Williams	17	1939-1960	51.31	49.95	101.26	190
Ruth	17	1918-1934	43.07	55.36	98.42	206
Cobb	22	1906-1928	47.02	46.03	93.05	168
Musial	21	1942-1963	38.29	38.61	76.89	159
Hornsby	15	1916-1931	35.10	38.60	73.70	175
Speaker	19	1909-1927	36.08	32.77	68.85	157
Mantle	17	1951-1968	34.55	33.27	67.82	172
Aaron	22	1954-1975	23.75	40.91	64.67	155
Ott	18	1928-1945	31.91	31.86	63.77	155
F.Robinson	19	1956-1974	30.40	33.17	63.57	154
Mays	19	1951-1971	25.85	35.19	61.03	156
M.Ramirez	16	1994-2009	28.25	31.77	60.02	154
Gehrig	14	1925-1938	26.75	32.30	59.05	179
Foxx	14	1928-1941	24.56	32.13	56.69	163
Thome	16	1994-2010	26.08	27.67	53.75	147
H.Wagner	16	1901-1916	22.93	30.72	53.66	151
Pujols	14	2001-2014	23.54	28.62	52.17	162
F.Thomas	14	1991-2007	27.60	23.78	51.38	156
Schmidt	16	1973-1988	20.59	29.97	50.57	147
Yastrzemski	23	1961-1983	30.16	19.97	50.13	130
A.Rodriguez	17	1996-2012	20.55	28.94	49.49	143
E.Collins	19	1908-1926	32.90	15.08	47.98	142
Brett	20	1974-1993	20.35	25.32	45.67	135
Kaline	21	1954-1974	23.13	22.30	45.43	134
C.Jones	18	1995-2012	26.04	19.06	45.11	141
D.Ortiz	16	1998-2014	18.17	26.19	44.36	140
S.Crawford	16	1901-1916	15.18	28.78	43.97	144
E.Martinez	14	1990-2004	27.56	15.72	43.29	147
Killebrew	16	1959-1975	19.13	24.01	43.14	143

While a statistical purist would rightly state that summing standard deviations is generally not a wise idea, this method is quite good at measuring greatness. In this case, it also isolates on-base and slugging ability, enabling us to find truly comparable great players. Martinez ranks 29th on this list of 30, and there are basically nothing besides slam-dunk Hall of Fame talents surrounding him.

There are a couple of unfortunate pieces of information here that might hurt Edgar’s case, though. With only 14 qualifying seasons, Martinez is tied for fewest on this list, with Frank Thomas, Jimmie Foxx, Lou Gehrig and, for now, Albert Pujols. On one hand, this underscores his greatness, as it took him only 14 qualifying seasons to accumulate a bit more offensive value than, say, Harmon Killebrew did in 16. Only 18 of the other 29 players on this list have a higher OPS+ than Martinez. That is way above the Hall of Fame line, DH or no DH.

The irony of the whole DH thing — beside the fact the Mariners kept Edgar in the minors years more than they should have because they were set at third base with Jim Presley — is David Ortiz in 2014 moved past Martinez on the above list, and now has at least a realistic claim to the “greatest DH” title that has always fueled Martinez’ candidacy. I’m afraid Edgar’s going to slip through the cracks, at least from the writers’ perspective, through no fault of his own. Hopefully he’ll be easy pickings for the next phase of the process in the Veterans Committee.

Then there’s Mussina. And here’s another chart of all-time cumulative standard deviation totals, this one for K/BB rate, relative to the league:

NAME	QUAL YRS	SEASONS	CAR STD K/BB	CAR ERA+
W.Johnson	18	1908-1926	43.94	147
Mathewson	15	1901-1915	40.89	135
Grove	14	1925-1939	34.66	148
G.Maddux	21	1988-2008	33.66	132
Vance	11	1922-1932	32.72	125
F.Jenkins	18	1966-1983	32.31	115
Cy.Young	10	1901-1910	29.56	138
R.Roberts	15	1949-1964	29.17	113
Schilling	12	1992-2006	29.05	127
Blyleven	18	1970-1989	28.58	118
GC.Alexander	17	1911-1928	27.96	135
Hubbell	14	1929-1942	27.15	130
Sutton	22	1966-1987	26.04	108
Mussina	16	1992-2008	25.86	123
Clemens	19	1986-2005	24.00	143

Mussina ranks 14th on this rather esoteric list. Now there’s quite a bit more to a pitcher’s job than maximizing strikeouts and minimizing walks. Much of my recent work on contact management ability would attest to that. Still, running a strong K/BB is central to being an exceptional pitcher, and Mussina was a solid contact manager, as well. As with Martinez, these are Hall of Famers accompanying Mussina on this list. You want to say Mussina doesn’t have the counting numbers to be in the Hall? Then how is he present on a list like this, which is based on excellence over the long haul? You want to say it’s lack of quality, rather than quantity, that should exclude him? Then why is his ERA+ better than Fergie Jenkins, Robin Roberts, Bert Blyleven and Don Sutton?

Blyleven is actually a pretty good case to consider here. Like Mussina, the voters short shrifted him for myriad reasons, one likely being the fact his best years were pitched in a relatively small market. Over time, voters grew to accept the valid, largely statistically-based arguments that supported his candidacy, and his vote totals surged late in the eligibility period, just in time to beat the buzzer. Mussina crucially separated himself from Jeff Kent, Fred McGriff and Larry Walker in this year’s voting, and could blow by Martinez and Lee Smith next year.

Consider this: Mussina won 57 more games than Smoltz and 54 more than Schilling. His winning percentage is far superior to both, and his ERA+ narrowly trails both (Smoltz 125, Schilling 127). He logged more innings than either. The cumulative K/BB standard deviation exercise above speaks highly of both Schilling and Mussina, and a very strong case can be made that both were somewhat better pitchers than Smoltz. They’re all Hall of Famers, and as Schilling absorbs Smoltz’s vote capacity in 2016, Mussina is likely to do with Schilling’s after his induction.

In summary, the smoke has started to clear ever so slightly, and the Hall logjam has a chance to eventually clear if the BBWAA addresses the component of its membership that is failing to do its job, resulting in a further increase of votes per ballot in the near term. They don’t need a 12-vote limit; they just need to use the 10 votes they have, when there are 10-plus viable candidates in play. Oh, and in 2017, Ivan Rodriguez, Manny Ramirez and Vladimir Guerrero say “Hi.”