Neftali Feliz’s Pitch Selection

Dave Cameron’s look at possible replacements for Neftali Feliz’s closer role should he transition into a starter’s role inspired me to take a look at Feliz’s pitch selection. Evan Grant’s great piece on Feliz’s pitch repertoire finds that Feliz started to throw more breaking balls later in the season (and less off-speed pitches). I was also interested in looking at how Feliz’s repertoire evolved over his first full season.

Feliz throws his high-90s fastball 80-90% of the time on most nights, as well as a sort of slurvy slider-curve hybrid at 80-82 mph. As noted in Grant’s look at Feliz’s secondary pitches, his upper-80s changeup is rarely used — he used it even less as the 2010 season winded down and in the playoffs. Here’s a look at Feliz’s month-by-month pitch selection in 2010, including the playoffs (FF – fastball, SL/CU – slider/curve, CH – changeup; “total” indicates total pitches in that corresponding row or column):

Month	FF	SL/CU	CH	Total
April	78.5%	12.2%	7.2%	181
May	83.2%	11.2%	5.6%	179
June	85.9%	10.9%	3.3%	184
July	85.6%	12.1%	2.3%	174
August	75.2%	22.7%	2.1%	141
September	79.4%	19.4%	1.1%	175
October	92.4%	7.6%	0.0%	118
Total	952	158	38	1152

Feliz experimented more with his changeup as he started out the 2010 season, but later dropped its usage. In favor of his breaking ball, Feliz dropped 10% of his fastballs between July and August, while continuing to use less of his changeup. Interestingly, Feliz’s seemingly increased confidence in his slurve — which he utilized up to 20% of the time — decreased dramatically as the playoffs ensued in October, dropping down to 7.6%. Of any month of the season, Feliz broke out his heated fastball the most in October. It’s clearly his best pitch, unhittable at times and the thing which helped shoot him up prospects rankings so quickly before 2010. Pitching in October, when late-inning relievers are relied on to preserve must-win games, Feliz’s confidence in predominantly his fastball showed based on his pitch selection. As a result, Feliz actually threw zero changeups during the deep playoff run by the Rangers.

Here’s a look at the same pitch selection by month but also via platoon splits:

vs. RHH	FF	SL/CU	CH	Total	||	vs. LHH	FF	SL/CU	CH	Total
April	78.9%	21.1%	0.0%	76	||	April	78.1%	5.7%	12.4%	105
May	78.7%	20.0%	1.3%	75	||	May	86.5%	4.8%	8.7%	104
June	83.9%	14.4%	1.7%	118	||	June	89.4%	4.5%	6.1%	66
July	86.5%	11.5%	1.9%	104	||	July	84.3%	12.9%	2.9%	70
August	66.1%	32.2%	1.7%	59	||	August	81.7%	15.9%	2.4%	82
September	80.9%	19.1%	0.0%	68	||	September	78.5%	19.6%	1.9%	107
October	88.1%	11.9%	0.0%	42	||	October	94.7%	5.3%	0.0%	76
Total	439	97	6	542	||	Total	513	61	32	610

Same-handed batter-pitcher matchups rarely see changeups, and this trend is clear in Feliz’s pitch selection against right-handed hitters. He actively increased his breaking ball usage against both right-handed and left-handed batters in July-August, first against left-handed batters, then against right-handed batters. His changeup usage was primarily against left-handed hitters, but even the opposite-hand matchups decreased in changeup usage to below 2% late in the season.

Was there a reason why Feliz lost confidence in his breaking ball and off-speed pitch and instead relied on only his fastball? A pitcher’s confidence in his repertoire can vary depending on the results of each pitch he throws, whether he can get whiffs or if batters make contact off of it. Thirteen changeups were put in play while 15 breaking balls were put in play in 2010. And while such raw numbers aren’t 100% accurate depending on the source of your pitch data, about 13 out of the 38 changeups Feliz threw in 2010 were put in play (34% of changeups), which is not a good number for a pitch type that should be getting whiffs (only three, or 8%, of his changeups caused a batter to whiff). As for Feliz’s slurve, which he used four times as much as his changeup in all of 2010, 11% of his breaking balls caused whiffs while 9.5% of them were put into play.

As a final note, Feliz’s reliance and confidence on his fastball in the playoffs seems to have very much to do with the success of it. Feliz whiffed 12.6% of batters when using his fastball, while 16% of his fastballs were put in play. Batters swung more often percentage-wise when facing Feliz’s fastball compared to when they saw his breaking ball or changeup, so that 16% in-play number is better than it looks (compared with his secondary pitches).

For the Rangers to develop Feliz into a starter, Feliz will have to put the most effort into developing his changeup, while developing more confidence in his slider/curve, as it can definitely become more of a plus pitch. Feliz can rely on his fastball 80-90% of the time as a reliever, but won’t have that luxury if the Rangers intend to start him every five days for multiple innings.