Neil Walker Is More Than Just a Ben Zobrist Plan B
All along, it seemed like the Mets were the clear frontrunner for Ben Zobrist. The Nationals and the Giants hung around in the periphery, but the Mets were among the earliest suitors, were perhaps most vocal suitor, and the fit made plenty of sense. It came down to the wire, enough for Mets fans to truly get their hopes up, but seemingly at the last minute the Cubs swooped in and made Zobrist their own. Turns out the Cubs had been in on Zobrist all along, but the public didn’t know that, and to New York fans, missing out on Zobrist must have felt like a crushing blow. Zobrist is the kind of player that any team would like to have.
One day after missing out on Zobrist, though, the Mets did what they perceived to be the next-best thing. They acquired Neil Walker from Pittsburgh in exchange for left-handed starter Jon Niese. Niese is set to earn a little over $9 million this season, with a pair of similarly-priced club options in the following two seasons. Walker is in his final year of arbitration, projected for $10.7 million by MLBTradeRumors, and for those reasons, Walker’s been an offseason trade candidate from the start. The Mets could’ve used a second baseman, having lost Daniel Murphy, and having something of a surplus of starting pitching. The Pirates needed starting pitching, having lost A.J. Burnett and J.A. Happ, and having something of a surplus of infielders. This is what the offseason is for.
Yet, in reading reactions to the trade, I couldn’t help but notice that it seemed the consensus was that Walker was a somewhat disappointing fallback plan to Zobrist. A lesser option, or a little brother, or a poor man’s Zobrist. They’re both switch-hitters, and they’ve both been around for a while, and they both play second base, and they were both targeted by the Mets, and they’ve both experienced success (even if Zobrist’s peak has been higher than Walker’s) and so the comparison isn’t surprising.
But I think to categorize Walker as anything less than Zobrist’s equal, at this stage in their careers, would be unfair to Walker. Regard their performance over the last three seasons, with Zobrist’s defensive numbers only coming from his time spent at second base:
| Name | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | ISO | wOBA | wRC+ | BsR | tDEF/1000 |
| Ben Zobrist | 1887 | 0.274 | 0.356 | 0.413 | 0.139 | 0.338 | 118 | 3.2 | 2.0 |
| Neil Walker | 1725 | 0.264 | 0.336 | 0.438 | 0.174 | 0.338 | 118 | 1.9 | -0.5 |
With the bat, they’ve been absolutely identical. Each has been 18% above league average over the past three seasons, in a similar amount of playing time. Zobrist is better at getting on base — he both takes more walks and makes more contact — but when Walker makes his contact he tends to do so with more authority, and it’s not like he’s an on-base liability, either. Walker has struggled against lefties throughout his career, and last year especially, but the year before that he was above league average against southpaws so it’s not like he’s strictly a platoon bat, and if you’re going to have a switch-hitter struggle from one side of the plate you’d prefer it come against lefties. Both are fine baserunners — mostly average — and while Zobrist has had an edge in the field, neither sways too far toward either end of the spectrum.
Walker is coming off his worst offensive season in years, though he still was an above-average hitter, and Zobrist is coming off his worst defensive season in years, likely due in part to his early-season knee surgery on a torn meniscus that kept him sidelined for a month. While it’s easier to point to the potential bounceback when you can attribute a drop in performance to an injury, it’s worth noting that Zobrist is entering his age-35 season, and defense peaks early. At this stage in Zobrist’s career, it’s not unreasonable to view him as an average-at-best defensive second baseman, mitigating the one advantage he’d held over Walker (discounting his versatility) over the past three seasons.
And to that point, there’s the fact that Walker is five years younger than Zobrist, and that the Mets have just one year and $9 million dollars committed to Walker and seem likely to receive draft pick compensation for him after next year. The financial obligation for 2016 is roughly the same as the Cubs owe Zobrist,and, while we’re here, here’s next year’s offensive forecasts:
2016 Steamer projections
- Walker: 113 wRC+
- Zobrist: 115 wRC+
Looking just at 2016, there shouldn’t be much expected difference between Walker and Zobrist, offensively or elsewhere. And then consider that, now, the Mets don’t have to worry about what paying $12 million to a 38-year-old infielder might look like four years down the road. There’s the case to be made about the security that the Cubs have in multiple years of Zobrist, but maybe by next season the Mets will feel that Dilson Herrera is ready to take over as an everyday second baseman anyway.
It’s an understandable reaction, when you’ve gotten your hopes up for an exciting new present and you’ve already pictured how much fun it’s going to be, to be let down when you get a slightly different model. Doesn’t always mean the model you got is any worse than the model you thought you were going to get, though.
August used to cover the Indians for MLB and ohio.com, but now he's here and thinks writing these in the third person is weird. So you can reach me on Twitter @AugustFG_ or e-mail at august.fagerstrom@fangraphs.com.
I wonder if Ben Zobrist plan B is better than the generic stuff
I think the Cubs are also paying Zobrist $14 M per year, not $12 M.
Great piece though. Agreed all around.
In 2016 it’s a $10 million salary with a $2 million signing bonus
The Mets need to wake the blank up and sign Cueto or Gallardo ASAP.
I prefer Gallardo, especially at 4/60 ( a steal for him, I’d go 4/70 in a minute ), but Cueto is fine.
Is this some kind of joke? You think the Mets’ greatest need right now is… more starting pitching?
I see the logic. If you have all the started in the entire game, then no one else can field a full team, which means they’d have to forfeit or play a player down. Perfect logic
Andrew,
Who is their 5th starter ?
They’re talking to Colon, but don’t forget that Wheeler comes back in June. They only need a little bit of depth there, and if they had to Gilmartin/Montero/Verrett could fill until then. Most teams have a lot less than that going every 5th day.
they should limit all their starters innings next year after all pitching the most innings of their careers. also wheeler will be limited once he gets back. so they do need a 5th starter.
“So they do need a fifth starter”
That’s why god invented AAA teams
JRuby,
They traded away literally 10+ minor league pitchers last year. They don’t have much left in AAA.
>>>>They traded away literally 10+ minor league pitchers last year. They don’t have much left in AAA.<<<<
The Mets traded 9 pitchers during the 2015 (10 if you count Niese), and only 2 had ever pitched at AAA (Luis Cessa and Cory Mazzoni).
Correction: literally 9+ pitchers. The point stands, they have lost their minor league pitching depth.
Alot of downvotes here, but with the exception of the unlikely sign Heyward ( the Mets don’t appear to be going 8/180 on anyone ), nobody seems to have any better alternatives.
I didn’t say this was their greatest need.
Their greatest need is a Shortstop that plays good defense. The only FA that remotely fits that description is Alexei Ramirez.
Then they need a center fielder. I’m big on Heyward as a potential solution there, but he’s really expensive. Fowler is fine. Span is too injury prone.
As for Gallardo, that is a cheap price for a really underrated 29 year old pitcher. He’s pitched in hitters parks his entire career and has always been solid.
Right now, the Mets have 4 starters, so they do need a 5th starter.
Matz, Harvey, and deGrom have all been through TJ surgery, which is always a risk.
Wheeler is not available until the All Star game, which would incidentally coincide with the trade deadline.
I’m not saying don’t go after a SS or a CF, but for the price, Gallardo is the man.
Mets have Wheeler coming back in June or July…they can fill the gap cheaply by re-signing Colon or just use Montero or another young arm for a few starts. 5th pitcher not even close to a need.
I think you it is optimistic to think that you’ll get a full season and a half out of Matz and Wheeler.
Regardless, 4/70 is not a lot of money, even as an insurance policy.
Forgive my grammar.
I love this fantasy land where the Mets have money to spend.
Why wouldn’t they ?
The real estate market is booming in NY and even the Madoff money has been largely recovered.
I doubt the Wilpons are in worse shape than they were in 2007.
And $70 million for Gallardo and $60 million for Fowler is not crazy money ( still $80 million less than Greinke ).
I don’t know why they signed Cabrera, but it does show that they have money to spend if they can spend $20 million on him.
I don’t think that’s right, Francis.
The Mets owe a $15 mil payment in 2016 and 2017 AND they pay over $100 million per year servicing the debt on the team and SNY.
I think they owe just as much now as in 2007.
http://www.amazinavenue.com/2015/3/30/8288295/new-york-mets-wilpon-madoff
They may owe as much, even more, but the value of their holdings and their rental income is higher.
If they are large scale NY real estate developers, they are doing great financially.
I think the Mets’ best strategy is sign Heyward tomorrow and then let every single person in the organization go on vacation until pitchers and catchers report
I’d be OK with that, but I’m wary of giving out 8+ year deals. Cano, Hamilton, Pujols, A-Rod. Other than Manny, I can’t recall one that wasn’t considered to be a mistake in retrospect.
They rarely pan out. I guess since Heyward is 26 it’s different, but …
Better suggestions ?
Not paying $15 million a year for a 30 year old starting pitcher whose strikeout rate has collapsed when starting pitching is the strength of your organization?
Why is $15 million preclusive ? You just paid 9.25 million for Asdrubal Cabrera.
And as far as starting pitching, you just lost Niese and Colon. That is a big hole.
People also seems to be penciling Matz and Wheeler for 50 starts next year.
Down vote this all you like, but I don’t think the Mets get 35 starts from the 2 of them combined.
I like Gallardo, but if people don’t, OK fine.
But they need another starter, and there are several out there at decent prices.
I hear a lot of “what you don’t do”, but only one person ( of 45 down votes ) who gave a “what you should do”.
Met losses:
Cespedes
Murphy
Uribe
Clippard
Colon
Niese
Met gains:
Walker
Asdrubal Cabrera
Do you downvoters think that losing those 6 and gaining those 2 is a net gain ?
First of all, they need a middle of the order bat, and despite not being a classic bopper, I’m in the Hayward camp.
But living in reality, the payroll is just north of $100M probably, and if you say Colon at 1/$5M, Blevins at 1/$3M and another mid range reliever, you’re probably pushing $115M. Maybe you can get 3 pitchers and keep it to 110. But you can’t then add a real hitter AND a 4/$60 Gallardo.
And I’ve never heard one credible person put the Mets’ 2016 payroll above $120M.
I haven’t downvoted any comments in this thread, but I’ll give it a whirl.
Cespedes was great for 5-6 weeks, but he wasn’t on the team for the first 4 months and he didn’t contribute after mid-September. So they don’t need to replace Cespedes – they just need to replace 5-6 weeks of his production, which can happen with a full year of Conforto.
Murphy and Walker is pretty neutral.
Uribe had less than 30 hits with the Mets last year. Assuming Cabrera is the starting SS, Uribe’s job would probably go to Flores, and I don’t think that’s a notable downgrade.
Clippard pitched one solid month for the Mets. He sucked in September, and in the playoffs. Teams aren’t done filling out their bullpen, but I don’t think it will be hard for them to replace 15 good innings.
Colon isn’t gone yet.
Any loss from Niese would be more than offset from a full year of Matz and Syndergaard, and a couple months of Wheeler.
All in all, I don’t think they’re a worse team than last year. They’re most likely better, since they have more depth to begin with (and I’m assuming they get some sort of lefty CF to platoon with Lagares). The biggest issue is that the Nats will almost certainly be better, so they’ll have much more competition in 2016.
Well thanks for trying
You may be right about the current team being as good as last years for the reasons you mention
I disagree, but even if you’re right, how damaging is it to add a starter who gives 180 innings and a 2-3 WAR, regardless of the price ?
The biggest challenge in getting a Gallardo-type pitcher is convincing him to sign with them. If their top-4 pitchers are set, and they have a solid pitcher expected back mid-year, then you’re only guaranteeing a free agent that he’ll start for half the season. If you’re Gallardo, you’re better off going to a team that needs you more, rather than risking a trip to the bullpen.
And assuming the budget is fixed, and they do have $15MM more to spend, then they’re probably better off using it for a bullpen piece and a CF to platoon with Lagares.
If it’s a matter of giving Gallardo (or a similar pitcher) $15MM or pocketing it, then they’re obviously a better team by spending the money. But I don’t think it works that way.
That’s a lot of criticism if the only suggestion is sign Heyward. He will cost at least $150 million, probably $180.
That seems highly unlikely to me.
Heyward cost $184 million.
If anyone suggested Heyward was a realistic option for the Mets, they were mistaken.
So far, the only other suggestion was do nothing at all.
You don’t spend a $15/yr on a #5 starter.
If you’ll spend 21.75 million on Cuddyer and Asdrubal Cabrera, I’d say 15 million for Gallardo ( or 23 million for Cueto ) is a bargain.
You just made Scott Boras’ X-mas card list.
As a Cubs fan, I think this is a good move for both clubs. Which means I hate it!
Seriously, Walker is a upgrade over Murphy for next year and Pirates get a cheap rotation arm
Do the defensive stats – UZR and/or DRS – take into account the player’s positioning at the outset of the play? I ask because Neil Walker rates below average by both (-2 DRS, -8.8 UZR/150) at 2B, but he often benefits from the Pirates’ MO of shifting constantly. So, if that’s not taken into account in those stats, are his already below-average defensive numbers being inflated? The eye test tells me that he’s mediocre.
UZR excludes shifts, DRS excludes some shifts. There’s probably a slight at best effect on his defensive numbers.
The Mets also aren’t going to shift much, so that won’t help if his range is mediocre.
A little shocked the Pirates and Walker didn’t agree an extension.
Walker has family ties to the club/city, could help sell tickets, and could buy a bunch of car dealerships in Western PA when his career ended.
Pirates forgot to take the car dealerships into account in offering him the extension. Both parties missed out there. I for one think he would’ve had great car commercials.
Can’t be hard to sell cars with a name like Walker! Still, I doubt he’d ever challenge Mike Piazza for the lead in Hondas Above Replacement Dealer.
This infield looks like it will be worse defensively than last year.
You are not wrong. Better hope for a lot of strikeouts
Another reason for a 5th starter.
How do you figure? Cabrera’s not a great SS but he’s better than Flores, and Walker’s not a great 2B but he’s better than Murphy.
I don’t know about that. I’ve been watching Walker for years and think he’s a lousy defender.
And I’ve heard similar things about Cabrera from Cleveland fans.
I think Murphy is not as bad of a fielder as his WS suggested, just as he’s not as good of a hitter as his NLDS/NLCS suggested.
I’d say Walker/Cabrera is about a wash with Flores/Tejada/Murphy
Duda and Wright are both a year older, and Wright has a chronic back condition. Uribe was a better fielder.
Every player is a year older. That’s a wash.
A year older in your 30’s is more detrimental to performance than a year older in your 20’s
I know you know that
And worse if you have chronic spinal stenosis
Don’t forget the QO!
Does it matter? The Mets were a bigger fluke than the royals last year.
Lol, OK bub. If you wanna blow smoke, go have a dart.
Yeah, as the Giants have proven, strong, young pitching definitely doesn’t lead to success.
The Mets do not hit or defend nearly as good as the Giants WS teams, and their bullpen is not as good.
For me, Walker’s Plan A. Of course he wasn’t on the radar a week ago, but if you offered me this Walker deal over Zobrist, I would have taken it before the Cubs signed Zobrist.
As a long-time Pirates fan I wish nothing but the best for Neil Walker; he was a good member of the community and seemed to have a true passion for being a representative of his home-town team. As for the article, it does a good job of highlighting what Neil brings to the table, I do disagree with one comment though.
“Walker has struggled against lefties throughout his career, and last year especially, but the year before that he was above league average against southpaws so it’s not like he’s strictly a platoon bat”
Setting aside the flaws in using single season splits, I think it’s important to consider the alternatives. Walker is great at turning double plays but has very limited range. When you combine that with his lack of power hitting right-handed he is essentially a replacement level player against lefties. The Mets would be much better served, IMO, to have Flores or Dilson platoon with Walker than to have him play every day. Walker has well above-average offense for a middle infielder hitting left-handed which more than makes up for his defensive shortcomings, but playing him full-time is a mistake that the pirates didn’t learn until mid-way through this year, when they finally started platooning him with Josh Harrison.
For Walker’s career he is a 83 wRC+ vs LHP. Combined with his career UZR/150 of -6.4 at second base (although it looks like he’s gotten worse since 2013 so probably more like a -8 at this point) the Mets are better off, IMO, using flores at second and tejada (assuming he comes back from the injury OK) at SS vs southpaws.
Getting Zobrist means they can hide Conforto against lefties if they want. They have no such option with Walker. Otherwise, great stuff.
Conforto will be an everyday player against righties and lefties. There is nothing in his profile that suggests he can’t hit lefties. The only reason that happened last year was because lefties were the best time to get Lagares into games and Cespedes out of CF. Unless we get a stud CF (Mike Trout for Matt Harvey!) you’ll see Conforto raking lefties next year.
Zobrist’s defensive numbers over the last 3 years are only not excellent at 2b because of last year. If you think he bounces back defensively, even a little, he’s way better than Walker. They are only equal if you think Zobrist’s horrid defense last year was a) correctly accounted for by defensive metrics and b) what we should expect going forward.
Yup.
But, given that Ben Zobrist is heading into his age 35 season with a surgically repaired meniscus he just put another year of baseball on, I’d be pretty surprised if he wasn’t on the decline, defensively.
A Walker+Herrera/Flores platoon is likely to provide equivalent value to Zobrist next season.
If you’ll grant that statement, then look at it this way. Basically, the Mets traded three years of John Niese at $30M for ~$45M in savings. That’s not an amazing move, but given their payroll constraints, it was smarter than paying ~$45M to Zobrist in 2017-2019, and paying Niese ~$25M from 2016-2018. I doubt there’s a big expected WAR difference between the two scenarios.
Great point about the value of the savings. Niese was mostly (though maybe not entirely) expendable and replaceable, whereas Walker mostly would not be.
I think you are probably right that Walker/Flores/Herrera has similar value to Zobrist, but I’m not sure it’s equal.
One big advantage (we think) with Walker is health. If he’s healthier than Zobrist this year, then he’s definitely worth more. And you aren’t locked into Zobrist’s declining years (which have probably already started, as you said).
And now the Mets have better infield depth for when Wright or Walker or whoever does get hurt. But I’m not convinced that the Mets are a forward thinking enough organization to platoon Walker. I think it’s more likely he plays 90%+ of the games at 2b (assuming health) and continues to struggle against lefties.
What do the Mets do after next year? If Walker is good, I’m worried they’ll give him a big contract, though they were smart enough not to do that with Murphy. Do they instead use Herrera/Flores/Tejada at 2B and SS? Go get someone?
Will there be an article on the Pirates perspective here? Forget about the emotional connection that Walker has with the fans, but just focusing on Niese, is he really much better than Jeff Locke? Couldn’t Walker have brought back some interesting prospects? It seems like the opportunity cost to pay $9 million to Niese is extremely high (for instance, if they trade Melancon, there’s $28 million saved on three players to invest in Kazmir, Napoli, and pitcher reclamation project X, plus some cost-controlled prospects)
It seems like a lot of people are just assuming that Niese will pitch better because he’s a pirate now. I don’t think it was a terrible trade but I think it was mediocre at best. I would rather have kept Walker and took a flyer on Mat Latos, or even traded Walker for someone who doesn’t suck as much as Jonathan Niese.
Niese will be a pleasant surprise for Pittsburgh.
On the other hand, the Cubs are about 10 games better than you, so there’s really not much to be happy about.
“But I think to categorize Walker as anything less than Zobrist’s equal, at this stage in their careers, would be unfair to Walker.”
I think the author might be the only one that sees it this way. It’s pretty clear that the Cubs, Pirates and Mets all viewed Walker as the lesser by how this all went down. (Cubs signing Zobrist, Mets trying to get Zobrist first, and Pirates only getting Niese for Walker (Not a knock on Niese but Zobrist would’ve fetched way more in a trade if he had the contract situation Walker does)
The only place Walker has Zobrist beat is age (just a number) and they are equal from the left side of the plate. But thats where the comparison falls short. The Mets had to sign Cabrera just so Walker+Cabrera would be a comparable equal to Zobrist. Combined they’re nearly the same hitter (if you play splits) Zobrist can play more positions, and he can play them better than Walker would. (Even better than Walker and Cabrera combined) Zobrist would have even saved them the roster spot they’re spending on Cabrera now..
I don’t see how they’re -near- equals but if someone would like to enlighten me to something I missed I’d appreciate it
Why are the Mets trying so hard to crowd out Herrera?
I don’t think they are crowding him out as much as they may think he needs a little more seasoning before getting the full time gig in 2017.
I like the Mets 2nd base and team situation more with A 31 year old Walker in 2016 and Herrera as a 23 year old in 2017 and beyond plus draft pick compensation is instead of Zobrist’s as an aging more expensive option.
I guess my impression is that Herrera doesn’t have anything left to prove in AAA and their plan this winter should have been to let Murphy go, save a ton of cash, and let Herrera take over 2B. Instead they seem to be desperately seeking Murphy replacements.
I think it’s more “desperately seeking infielders” in general. With Wright’s injury and SS an unsolved problem there are a lot more AB and infield innings to fill than just the one caused by Murphy’s free agency, and these additions create a pool of players who can fill more of them acceptably.
I see 3 things I believe are in Walkers favor:
1. Age (not committing to Zobrist’s mid to late 30s)
2. Health
3. Lifetime NLer vs ALer – should have more familiarity to pitchers
One thing in Zobrist’s favor:
He only cost money, Walker cost a player. Less money doesn’t make you a worse team on the field, losing a player does.