Neil Weinberg FanGraphs Q&A – 8/6/14 by Neil Weinberg August 6, 2014 2:10 Neil Weinberg: Hey everyone, let me remind you of the guidelines. My job here is primarily to serve as something of a Site Educator. This means that I’m responsible for providing resources to readers about our data, advanced metrics, and how to make use of the features available at the site. My Twitter handle is @NeilWeinberg44 and if you want to get in touch about these kinds of questions at times other than 3pm on Wednesdays, that’s where to find me. It’s my job, so take advantage of it. With that said, I will prioritize “how does this work?” and “what does this mean?” type questions during the chats, but feel free to ask regular questions about anything as well. Although if you’re here for fantasy advice or prospect talk, I’m probably less helpful than some of our writers. Think that’s it, queue is open and we’ll start at 3pm! 2:35 Neil Weinberg: Also, I’ve observed that people really like seeing pictures of Dave’s dog, so I am shamelessly posting a picture of my dog in the name of both science and friendship. 2:35 : 3:00 Neil Weinberg: Alright, let’s chat. If you’re new to the game, I’ll chat for at least an hour, but will happily go two+ if you pepper the queue with many excellent questions. 3:01 Comment From Pale Hose Hi Neil. I have a couple questions on HR/FB. 1.) Are all HRs defined as fly balls? 2.) Does FB include IFFB? 3.) Would HR/(FB + LD – IFFB) make more sense? Thanks! 3:03 Neil Weinberg: 1) No. 2) Yes. 3) Not really. At least for the way I think about the stat. I think you could make the case that the stat you’re proposing is interesting, but a lot of line drives are 15 feet off the ground and that’s not what we typically care about with HR/FB% 3:03 Comment From Spencer So between the 49 wins that are considered the replacement level for each team and the amount of WAR accumulated by the team’s players there is usually a small amount of wins unaccounted for. What are these wins attributed to? 3:05 Neil Weinberg: Some of this is sequencing/randomness/noise. So if you happen to time your hits in a certain way that might make you over-perform your actual offensive output. Some of it is that WAR is not a 100% perfect measurement so it’s not going to hit on every team exactly. If you look at team wins versus WAR + replacement level wins over the course of four or five seasons, the correlation is very high. But it’s never going to be exact. 3:05 Comment From A. Lane I was looking through your chat transcript from last week, and you mentioned the FIP WAR for pitchers at Fangraphs, includes IFFB? Is this correct and if so has it always been done? 3:06 Neil Weinberg: Yeah, I think FG incorporated this maybe two years ago? I can go back and check. Basically they are treated like strikeouts because they are essentially defense independent outs. But we only have IFFB data going back to 2002, so it’s not incorporated before that obviously. 3:06 Comment From Chris I’m no scientist, but that is an adorable dog. 3:07 Neil Weinberg: Yes, I agree and I’m sort of a scientist. He’s a rescue and he is the best. 3:07 Comment From CW Hi Neil, how often are Zips and Steamer projections updated on fangraphs? 3:07 Neil Weinberg: Daily. 3:07 Comment From Vslyke If you were the Braves GM, what would you do with BJ Upton? 3:09 Neil Weinberg: Oh my…what happened to BJ Upton? Defense is gone. Power is gone. I haven’t watched him enough to be sure but I’d seriously considering either releasing him or seeing if some team would take him for ten cents on the dollar. 3:09 Comment From Vslyke Do you buy the idea that some MLB players are “lazy”? Seems like an impossible thing to measure but I don’t know how to tell someone that a player isn’t lazy. 3:10 Neil Weinberg: I would imagine that MLB players vary in how much effort they put into their craft. The laziest MLB player is probably much harder working than the average person, but if you compared (insert lazy reputation player) to (insert hard working reputation player) there is probably a difference. So I do buy the idea that some players are lazy if the comparison is to other players and not to me. 3:10 Comment From Nathan Is xFIP scaled differently in different years? I notice that Alex Cobb has a higher K/9 and GB% and a lower BB% than he did last year, yet his xFIP this year (3.41) is significantly higher than his xFIP last year (3.02). 3:12 Neil Weinberg: Couple of things on Cobb. First, yes xFIP will vary based on league average ERA and K/BB/HR stats and such, but Cobb is a great place to point out that he’s allow MORE fly balls. His GB% is up, but his line drive rate is down and those line drives are becoming fly balls sometimes too. That 5% increase makes a difference considering that his strikeout and walk gains per nine are tiny. 3:12 Comment From Dougie Not sure if this is best posed to you or Dave Appelman, but on the positional leaderboards is their any way to code so the stats for multi-position players get split by position? Example, all of Buster Posey’s production is listed under C, but he has 22 games at 1B. 3:13 Neil Weinberg: You can already do this! I explain how here: http://www.fangraphs.com/li… But what you want to do is make use of the Split drop down menu. Select catcher through there and you’ll find what you’re looking for. 3:13 Comment From Joe Is there a way to view the projected standings as of a particular past date? For example, if I wanted to see the change in projected record and playoff odds for the Orioles between the beginning of the season and now? 3:14 Neil Weinberg: Sorry, we don’t currently have this option on the site. I know we’ve talked about it, but it’s not functional at this point. I’m pretty sure mlb.com has the BaseballProspectus odds over time somewhere. 3:14 Comment From CuriousGeorge Any players you have an inkling will come out in the most recent Biogensis reports? They’re saying there are a few previously unnamed players 3:15 Neil Weinberg: No idea. TJ Quinn said they are MLB players but not stars, which is almost exactly who got caught the first time around except for Braun and ARod. I would expect the same tier of guys. 3:15 Comment From please say yes Jeremy Hellickson rebound? 3:17 Neil Weinberg: Jeremy Hellickson is the weirdest pitcher in baseball based on his stat line. He spent two and half seasons running a super low babip, then was normal last year and has a high one in very limited work this year. To be honest, he’s a below average starter with some really weird luck-factors year to year. Expect him to be serviceable, but not great. 3:18 Comment From CuriousGeorge How would you recommend a 22 year old with a finance degree and love of baseball attempt to enter a baseball front office? 3:19 Neil Weinberg: Couple of suggestions based on experience of friends, not myself. Learn to manage databases using something like SQL. Network in a non-obnoxious way. Write about the game online (focusing on the job you want). 3:20 Comment From John Should I start Arrieta today at Coors? 3:20 Neil Weinberg: Nothing ventured, nothing gained. Rockies are a bad team right now. Do it. (I warned you my fantasy advice is lacking) 3:20 Comment From AJ When FG people (such as Dave Cameron, and others) look at $/WAR, do they take the minimum salary (~500k) out of the numerator? Since the Denominator is above replacement, it seems like it would only be fair to take out the replacement player’s salary 3:22 Neil Weinberg: Yes, I’m like 99% positive it’s factored into the analysis. 3:22 Comment From Rob Has FG ever considered acquiring (buying?) more advanced minor league data like minorleaguecentral.com has? Whiff rates, plate discipline, batted ball, etc. Pitcher velocity would also be really nice (MLC doesn’t have that) 3:23 Neil Weinberg: I don’t know if we’ve ever thought about buying it, but I’ve only been on the payroll for a few weeks. I’m not sure we anyone actually has minor league velo other than teams. 3:23 Comment From Guest Any chance of getting MLBAM IDs on Fangraphs data exports? Having to manually match IDs across different sites sometime can be a painful process. 3:24 Neil Weinberg: Not sure how hard this would be, but 1) I will ask! 2) There is a document out there on the internet that has a master-list of the various IDs. Google around looking for it and it should come up. Should help in the short run 3:24 Comment From AJ In the Win probability graphs, is there a calculation about the probability of winning at the end of the inning based on score, etc…? Or is it calculated based on the distribution of possibility of runs at the beginning of each half-inning with 0 on, 0 out? 3:25 Neil Weinberg: I’m not clear what you’re asking. WPA is based on the score, inning, and current base-out state. 3:26 Comment From Christian Is there diminishing returns on WAR if it is too concentrated on a certain skill? For instance, if you had a team made up of this year’s all star pitchers but replacement level position players and another team with the same overall WAR but balanced across all players, the latter team would win considerably more right? 3:27 Neil Weinberg: I don’t know if this is actually true. But I can’t think of a study about this off the top of my head. 3:27 Comment From Pale Hose Is there a way to get multiple seasons on the leaderboards where each year is a record? I’ve been exporting to Excel and manually adding in the year for each dataset. Is there a better way? 3:28 Neil Weinberg: Are you trying to get the league stats for each year? Or players’ stats for each year? We can do both, just not sure which you mean. Follow up! 3:28 Comment From Concerned Not sure where to ask this– but can you please add Rusney Castillo to the ottoneu player universe 3:29 Neil Weinberg: I’m not the guy to ask, but he’s not playing in MLB or with any of their affiliates. I don’t think Ottoneu adds players until they are in the league? 3:29 Comment From Chris Pitchf/x data currently only applies to pitchers, right? Is there a way that this information could be applied to catchers as well, to help analyze pitch-framing abilities? 3:30 Neil Weinberg: There is pitch fx for catchers, we just don’t have it on the site. Check out www.baseballsavant.com for example. Daren has a search tool that you can use on catchers. 3:30 Comment From Advice If you have a finance degree the best way to get into a front office is to do finance/buisness work for a team. 3:31 Neil Weinberg: Probably networking. People I know who have non-baseball ops jobs with teams got them like people get jobs in most industries. Looking for openings and making connections. 3:32 Comment From Garth Vader Oh man, have plate discipline league averages been added to player profiles? Am I just now seeing this or is it new (clicking “averages” next to “regular season”) 3:32 Neil Weinberg: This is so new I literally didn’t know it had gone live! 3:32 Neil Weinberg: I am very excited about this. It looks like it’s available for a few different stats. 3:33 Comment From Mermaids Can you explain the Oliver projection system and how it works for minor league guys. It has sano being a 6-7 win player for the next five years. I also saw it had Baez hitting 35-45 homers each of the next five years. 3:33 Neil Weinberg: You would have to ask Brian Cartwright (the creator of Oliver) how he does this! 3:34 Comment From AJ Sorry for not being clear before — as an example, is P(Getting exactly 2 runs in the next inning) the same whether you are about to start the 2nd inning or the 7th inning? 3:35 Neil Weinberg: Ah, gotcha. Yes, except that WPA is also factoring in the probability of tying in beyond the next inning. So WPA of a 2-0 game is different in the 3rd and 7th inning but not because you’re more likely to score in one compared to the other 3:35 Comment From Hunter What is the best all-around pitching sabermetric? FIP, right? 3:35 Neil Weinberg: If you had to pick just one, that would be my vote. But lots of people prefer to look at xFIP. And looking at more than one thing is always the ideal. 3:36 Comment From Pale Hose Player stats by year is what I am looking for. For example I would like a table that looks something like this: 2014 Clayton Kershaw; 2013 Clayton Kershaw; 2012 Clayton Kershaw; 2014 Felix Hernandez, etc. 3:36 Neil Weinberg: Go to the leaderboards, change the year ranges and click “split seasons.” 3:36 Comment From I smelly something fishy and it isnt in my wifes pants what would Adam Dunn as pitcher’s WAR be? 3:37 Neil Weinberg: He currently has a 0.0 WAR as a pitcher. I would be if you gave him 200 innings he’d be in the -3 WAR range. 3:37 Comment From The Book As a general rule of thumb, does .50 OPS points equate to roughly 10 runs created? 3:38 Neil Weinberg: I’m not sure, I would have to do the math. I don’t really look at OPS when wOBA is right there. About 20 points of wOBA is worth about 10 runs, as a rough guide. 3:38 Comment From I smelly something fishy and it isnt in my wifes pants How does it feel to be ridiculed by all of Baltimore on fangraphs? 3:39 Neil Weinberg: Well I haven’t been ridiculed by all of Baltimore. I think Baltimore likes me. I sometimes go on a Baltimore area radio show and they’ve always been pleasant. I hope the Orioles do well as long as my favorite team isn’t harmed in the process. 3:39 Comment From froggy How is it that Pitch F/X plate discipline and regular plate discipline don’t agree on Swing% and Contact% ? 3:40 Neil Weinberg: The (BIS) or regular plate discipline numbers update either one or two days after the game, so there is always a lag. 3:41 Neil Weinberg: I am apparently answering questions faster than normal? That is cool, but also means you should ask more questions! 3:41 Comment From CuriousGeorge I just want to work in baseball in general 3:43 Neil Weinberg: The people I know who have been hired by teams pretty much all started by writing about the game online, either as scout-types or analyst-types. Go to the winter meetings and meet people, make connections, etc. It’s glorified, but baseball is like most industries, except that there aren’t a huge number of jobs total. 3:43 Comment From Hunter Could you update the BABIP page on Fangraphs? It would be much appreciated 3:43 Neil Weinberg: This is happening this week! 3:43 Comment From froggy Re: the plate discipline stats, they disagree for previous years as well. I’m trying to figure out what sort of events are being disagreed on by BIS and PitchF/X. Check swings? Foul tips? 3:44 Neil Weinberg: Yeah, it’s possible there are a few things like that as well. My guess would be foul tips play a big role, although I don’t know the BIS protocol 100%. 3:44 Comment From Dave M Any baseball career suggestions for an attorney with an ok changeup? Is the answer always networking? 3:44 Neil Weinberg: Find a company that really values it’s softball team and you’ll have job security. 3:45 Comment From Guest Why does year-to-date WAR + projected RoS WAR not equal the full year projection? For pitchers at least 3:46 Neil Weinberg: I think it’s because we get RoS numbers by talking the projected FIP and innings but the Updated projection is straight from the projection system. I’m not sure about that, but I will add it to my list of things to ask about this week. 3:46 Comment From Guest Followup to curiousgeorge: I can do R, Python, and SQL are there any other specific languages/programs you’d recommend learning? 3:47 Neil Weinberg: These are the ones I hear most often. Some teams want you to be able to build their software, so that’s a skill you might want too. Like the apps that scouts use, etc 3:47 Comment From A. Lane If one wanted to compared DRS to UZR/150, there is nothing wrong with scaling DRS to per 1350 innings? 3:48 Neil Weinberg: Yeah, that’s a fine approximation. Why not just compare it to UZR, though? Then the denominator is your own invention and won’t affect anything. 3:49 Comment From Dave M What kind of statistic do you think teams look at when making draft picks that the public does not have access to? 3:50 Neil Weinberg: I don’t think they’re using many stats we don’t know about on draft picks. There aren’t really tracking systems in many (any?) amateur parks. Anything they would be using would be public knowledge, plus scouting reports. 3:51 Comment From Guest The custom dashboard settings only applies to player pages, and not to the leaderboards, correct? 3:51 Neil Weinberg: Yes 3:52 Comment From Nora Morse I know this isn’t your department, but why isn’t Fangraphs formatted to fit my phone? I’m constantly having to pinch and resize every article I click on. 3:53 Neil Weinberg: I’ve had this conversation with people before, it’s a pretty tough thing to do, from what I understand for a stats site. I jokingly told people to get bigger phones, that’s the best advice I have for now. But we’re aware of it. 3:53 Comment From MB How are the yearly wOBA weights calculated? 3:53 Neil Weinberg: Using linear weights. 3:53 Comment From Guest What is the source of the defensive part of the WAR equation for someone who played 100 years ago, and how seriously should be take a WAR comparison between Mike Trout and, say, Ty Cobb? 3:54 Neil Weinberg: Something called Total Zone. Invented by Sean Smith. It’s not bad, but it’s certainly less precise. A +20 defender by TZ is probably good, but I would be way less sure about it than a +20 UZR 3:55 Comment From Chris Since there is pitchf/x data for catchers, wouldn’t you be able to analyze a catcher’s framing by looking at their season-long “called strikes outside the zone” and removing the season-long “called balls inside the zone”? This difference could be some sort of pitch-framing metric, couldn’t it? 3:55 Neil Weinberg: This is the backbone of most framing work so far! 3:56 Comment From Im Brazilian To me, Arenado is the best defensive 3B in the league, with Beltre, Machado and Donaldson right behind him. But looking at the stats, his 9.4 UZR/150 ranks him behind guys like Panda (11.3) and Headley (17.3) right now. So, maybe I’m overrating him? 3:57 Neil Weinberg: 1) Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) has Arenado tied for first, so you’re not far off. 2) He has played fewer innings due to his injury, which doesn’t technically matter for a /150 stat, but it means he’s had fewer chances to shine. I bet he’ll wind up pretty close to the top. 3:57 Comment From dbet Baltimore fans needs to realize that a .500 team wins 90+ games like 8% of the time…. 3:59 Neil Weinberg: It’s not Orioles fans. It’s any team’s fans that feel like they aren’t being respected. The Orioles are a solid team that is playing a little better than their ability. This happens every year with a couple teams and there’s always push back. Being a fan isn’t a rational thing, and it doesn’t have to be. 3:59 Comment From Christian Wouldn’t a support side (business, facilities, etc) MLB job be safer since less chance of that part of organization being cleaned out when the GM enevitably moves on? 3:59 Neil Weinberg: Certainly, but those jobs aren’t as glamorous. 3:59 Comment From Hunter What pitching sabermetrics should I use to measure a pitcher’s performance? 4:00 Neil Weinberg: K%, BB%, GB%, HR/FB%, FIP, xFIP, any plate discipline stats, WAR 4:00 Neil Weinberg: Alright as usual, going to take a couple minute break now that it’s 4pm. Ask lots more questions and I’ll stay a while when I get back 4:05 Comment From Manny What is wrong with Giancarlo Stanton? He was locked in early in the season, with great plate discipline. Now he is getting the 2013-Yasiel Puig treatment and cannot seem to lay off the breaking-ball low and away (good for 129 K’s already) 4:06 Neil Weinberg: Stanton is having his best offensive season still, by a hair. Still has a 134 wRC+ since June 1. Career low K%. I would not be very concerned by little dips here and there. 4:06 Comment From Matt This is a more meta-question, But do you find sabermetrics as a field a bit ignorant? I get a vibe of “If I can’t measure it or quantify it, it doesn’t matter”. But sabermetrics,like economics, is a complex phenomena, where a data is limited. Things that cannot be proven by quantanative data are thrown aside and proceed in a fiction which only factors that can be measured are relevant. This isn’t a physical science where things require precise data and controls. How do we avoid falling into the trap of ignoring qualitative knowledge in favor of exclusive use of limited quantitative knowledge? 4:06 Neil Weinberg: I don’t think this is true as a matter of practice, but it can feel like this as a matter of communication. 4:08 Neil Weinberg: For example, I don’t consider team chemistry when I analyze a team because I have no way of knowing what that team’s chemistry is like. I don’t disagree that it might matter, but I’m not going to pretend to measure it. We typically treat these non-measurable factors as residuals, but we don’t talk about them very clearly to people who think chemistry (and the like) matter a whole lot. 4:09 Neil Weinberg: So if Harold Reynolds tells you the A’s are going to play worse because they miss Yoenis…he’s making it up. He doesn’t actually even know if they miss him, much less how that affects them. When we take a more scientific approach to the game, we simply don’t try to measure that and accept it as an unknown. 4:09 Comment From CuriousGeorge what is the one prospect that broke your heart the most when he didnt pan out? 4:09 Neil Weinberg: This is a good question. (thinks) 4:10 Neil Weinberg: My problem here is that I’m a Tigers fan and our prospects don’t fail until they are traded… 4:11 Neil Weinberg: (thinks more) 4:12 Neil Weinberg: I’m not sure. Ask me again next week. The guys I am most broken hearted over still have a chance to survive. 4:12 Comment From Kyle What’s the difference between RA9-WAR and regular pitcher WAR and which one is better when? 4:14 Neil Weinberg: RA9-WAR is based on runs allowed and regular WAR (on FG) is based on FIP. FIP assumes pitchers have very little control on the outcomes of balls in play while RA9 assumes they have complete control. They way I use them, and this depends on what you care about, is to look at FIP-WAR as the starting point with the awareness that a pitcher has a RA9-WAR that could inform you about how they are doing on certain aspects of the game that involve the defense, because some of that is signal even if it’s mostly noise. So a 3.0 WAR and a 3.2 RA9-WAR…whatever. But a 2.5 WAR and a 4.5 RA9-WAR, we need to look into this. 4:14 Comment From Christian Are you watching any of the baseball games right now? 4:14 Neil Weinberg: No, I tried that the first week I chatted. Couldn’t really pay attention. 4:14 Comment From Stanatee the Manatee When you see a younger player having a what could be a breakout, what, if anything, would you look at to see if it’s legit and not just a hot streak (batters and pitchers)? 4:16 Neil Weinberg: Really what I look for is signs that it’s NOT a breakout. So if the batter has a .400 BABIP or crazy HR/FB%that we’ve never seen, I’m skeptical. I also like to dig into how he’s being pitched and the counts he’s getting into. That can sometimes help show if he’s doing something unusual. Same is true for pitchers, but in the other direction. Typically pitcher breakouts are easier to find because you can tied them to an improved pitch or something 4:16 Comment From Ryan I haven’t seen you mention SIERA. Are you not a fan? If not, why? 4:18 Neil Weinberg: I don’t think SIERA offers a whole lot of extra value above what xFIP does. Batted balls are tricky, especially because our classification of those batter balls are suspect. The idea of SIERA is good, but I don’t think it’s enough better than xFIP at the moment to make it worth it. If we get StatCast data, something like SIERA could be more effective. 4:18 Comment From JB Do you think a counting statistic like SD/MD makes sense using RE24 context for relievers? 4:19 Neil Weinberg: Sure. I would be in favor of looking at a stat like that. Not sure exactly the right way to draw the boundaries, but sounds promising 4:19 Comment From @outfieldgrass24 There’s no real difference between using K/9 and K% for pitchers, right? Which one do you gravitate towards? 4:21 Neil Weinberg: There’s a difference but it usually won’t be a big deal. K% is strikeouts per batter faced, which is a better representation of the pitcher’s skill. Would you rather have a guy who struck out 9 batters in 9 innings while facing 34 hitters or a pitcher who struck out 9 batters in 9 innings while facing 40 hitters? Usually it only matters at the margins, but I’d always go K% if you want to really be precise, but K/9 is usually easier to use when talking to less knowledgeable fans. 4:22 Comment From Randall What prospect in the Cubs Organization do you think will turn into an All Star? 4:22 Neil Weinberg: Bryant would be my bet. Russell next. Then Baez. All have a good shot IMO 4:22 Comment From Guest As a Tigers fan myself, Zumaya would be my answer to the failed prospect question, although I’m not sure injuries = “failing” 4:22 Neil Weinberg: Yeah, thought about him but he wasn’t a failed prospect in the way the question was asked. 4:22 Comment From Dave M What stats could indicate that a specific player could tend to run an above average BABIP? ISO? Lower swing rates? 4:23 Neil Weinberg: Line drive rate, although sometimes we classify those incorrectly. But being fast and hitting line drives help. 4:23 Comment From Charles Jacob Turner. Thoughts? 4:24 Neil Weinberg: I cannot believe the Marlins DFA’d him. He’s 23 and has okay numbers (aside from ERA). They gave up WAY too soon. Probably some former-Tigers bias there, but I wouldn’t cut a guy like Turner. 4:25 Comment From CuriousGeorge What’s the best stat for evaluating Relievers? I almost went crazy reading the Washington Post article on Rafael Soriano as the best reliever in the NL. Saying anyone other than Aroldis Chapman made me lose my mind. 4:25 Neil Weinberg: Something like FIP is going to be pretty decent. I’d also think about RE24. 4:25 Comment From Chris What aspect of baseball do you wish had a reliable stat, which does not currently have a reliable stat? 4:26 Neil Weinberg: This is such a niche answer, but I would love data on how often the pitcher shakes off the catcher. Also, I would like access to the data on where the catcher’s glove starts. 4:27 Comment From A. Lane Fangraphs uses replacement levels of .380 and .470,and .500 as average for both leagues because I’ve seen Tango examples where he will use .490 as a league average pitcher in the NL? 4:27 Neil Weinberg: I’m not sure what you’re asking. Could you follow up? 4:27 Comment From froggy I can’t figure out how to tell if a batter’s change in power (in either direction) is real or flukey. Using HR/FB seems like circular reasoning. Maybe GB% ? A site that tracks how far HRs go? 4:30 Neil Weinberg: It’s tough. There isn’t really a best way to do this. I would recommend you breaking apart the player’s game. Find where the power is missing or gained, and then see if it looks real or not. So if a guy is all of a sudden hitting more HR/FB, but everything else is the same, maybe check out how far they’re going or where the pitches were. The big problem here, as Jeff wrote about a few months ago, is that power actually shows up on a small portion of a batter’s swings per season, so five balls died on the warning track and you look terrible. This is the kind of question that requires a lot of legwork. 4:30 Comment From froggy Any chance of getting a HOF filter added to the Active Roster one on the leaderboards? Maybe even MVP/Cy/etc filters when splitting seasons? 4:30 Neil Weinberg: I don’t think MVP/Cy would be high on the list but HOF isn’t a terrible idea. I think there is a custom leaderboard with all of the HOFers around somewhere. I’ll have to check for it. 4:31 Comment From CuriousGeorge Looking at tigerss first round picks for hints as to who you may have said. Didnt know they drafted Maybin (between Verlander and Andrew Miller). Also The name Chance Ruffin made me chuckle a bit. I hope he busts so you’ll say his name next week when I ask. 4:31 Neil Weinberg: Ha, Ruffin retired last month. The Tigers traded him in part for Doug Fister 4:32 Comment From Gila Monster After how many pitches does SwgStk% stabilize for each individual pitch? I’ve looked everywhere and found nothing 4:33 Neil Weinberg: I don’t know off the top of my head, but stats based on pitches will stabilize faster than stats based on PA, so maybe something like 50-100 TBF? Not positive though and don’t have time to research during a chat. 4:34 Neil Weinberg: Alright, fire off a bunch of quick hit questions and we’ll guide this thing in for a landing by 5. 4:35 Comment From Andrew Going back to my softball questions in chats past, what are the mostly useful stats that can be derived from a standard scorebook? Thinking in terms of lineup construction, or a WAR-like number just for fun. 4:36 Neil Weinberg: I would look at OBP and SLG. They will be easy to create and plenty useful. Then take your high OBP guys and bat them 1 and 2, then your power guys 3-5. 4:36 Comment From Matt Could there be something like “overall pitch movement”? We have h-movement and v-movement and while the math is easy enough, it would be nice to be built in. 4:37 Neil Weinberg: Theoretically, but you also have to remember the vertical movement is movement if there were no gravity. So a 5 inches drop is actually like a 45 inch drop! Doable, just sometimes better to look at individually. 4:37 Comment From CuriousGeorge Do any of the FG guys live in NYC? 4:38 Neil Weinberg: No one comes to mind, but there are probably people I’m not thinking of. I don’t know where everyone lives. 4:38 Comment From Dan Do you know how team win probability scores are calculated in a particular game? 4:39 Neil Weinberg: It’s based on the odds of all the potential run scoring that could happen, which is derived from historical data. Essentially, how often does a road team come back and win if they’re down 4-3 in the 5th. 4:40 Neil Weinberg: Keep asking questions, should have time to answer a couple more normal ones and a few short/anything goes types. 4:40 Comment From @outfieldgrass24 Would like to submit WPA/LI as a great metric for relievers, although somewhat advanced or nuanced in nature. 4:41 Neil Weinberg: That’s fine in principle, but I prefer to think about reliever value based on their ability to prevent runs, rather than the situations in which they prevent them. But that’s my preference, not a rule 4:41 Comment From Fan GO TIGERS 4:41 Neil Weinberg: Ha, this person gets it. 4:42 Comment From CuriousGeorge what is your current favorite topic to write about 4:44 Neil Weinberg: I like what I do here. Taking somewhat complicated material and trying to make it intuitive for everyone. But those things ebb and flow. I’ll get into a pitch fx mood or a GIFnalysis mood soon enough. 4:44 Neil Weinberg: So let’s wrap up with a couple of points of business…. 4:44 Neil Weinberg: First, I’ll be updating the BABIP entry in the glossary this week, so get ready for that. I’ll also have a blog post relating to similar things. 4:45 Neil Weinberg: If you want to get in touch during the week, follow and tweet at me on Twitter. I’m @NeilWeinberg44 4:45 Comment From rockies fan person whyyyyy didn’t colorado pick up jake turner WHY 4:45 Neil Weinberg: #Rockies 4:46 Neil Weinberg: Have good weeks!