NERD Game Scores: A David Phelps Unsolved Mystery

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.


Most Highly Rated Game
San Francisco at Miami | 12:10 ET
Samardzija (141.0 IP, 104 xFIP-) vs. Phelps (58.2 IP, 81 xFIP-)
Over the first four years of his career — during which he operated in mostly a swing role — Miami right-hander David Phelps sat at roughly 91 mph. Through July of this year, working exclusively out of the bullpen, Phelps recorded an average fastball velocity of 94-95. This past Friday, making his first start of the season, Phelps sat at 94-95 — and actually more like 95-96 with his four-seam fastball. As with most other pitchers, Phelps at 94-95 is markedly different than Phelps at 91. Which version of Phelps appears today is a mystery to be solved by everyone at about noon simultaneously.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: San Francisco Radio or Television.

Two Other Brief Notes
Three Sentences About St. Louis Prospect Alex Reyes
Very top St. Louis prospect Alex Reyes recorded his major-league debut last night. This morning, Chris Mitchell utilized his personal computer to produce some career scenarios — in terms of wins, like — for Reyes. Here, in conclusion, is video footage of Reyes’s first strikeout:

Today’s Free Game
Today’s free game features the same San Francisco and Miami clubs cited above and can be accessed by means of this hyperlinked text.

Complete Schedule
Here’s the complete and very sortable table for all of today’s games. Pitching probables and game times aggregated from and also the rest of the internet. Note that calculations both for team and game NERD scores feature adjustment for postseason odds that increases as season progresses. Read more about those adjustments here and here.

NERD Scores for August 10, 2016
Away SP TM GM TM SP Home Time
Jeff Samardzija SF 6 9 7 7 7 MIA David Phelps* 12:10
Jeremy Hellickson PHI 5 3 6 9 5 LAN Scott Kazmir 15:10
Josh Tomlin CLE 6 7 6 6 5 WAS Gio Gonzalez 16:05
Edwin Jackson SD 1 4 4 5 7 PIT Ryan Vogelsong 19:05
Blake Snell TB 6 5 6 9 5 TOR J.A. Happ 19:07
Robbie Ray AZ 9 4 5 5 4 NYN Bartolo Colon 19:10
Nathan Eovaldi NYA 9 3 7 9 6 BOS Drew Pomeranz 19:10
Anthony DeSclafani CIN 6 3 5 6 6 STL Jaime Garcia 19:15
Jorge de la Rosa COL 1 3 3 4 4 TEX Martin Perez 20:05
Ricky Nolasco LAA 5 3 4 4 5 CHN Jason Hammel 20:05
Joel de la Cruz ATL 0 2 2 3 2 MIL Chase Anderson 20:10
Dallas Keuchel HOU 7 5 5 4 5 MIN Ervin Santana 20:10
Jose Quintana CHA 5 3 3 2 4 KC Ian Kennedy 20:15
Yovani Gallardo BAL 0 9 4 3 3 OAK Ross Detwiler* 22:05
Justin Verlander DET 7 6 6 5 4 SEA Felix Hernandez 22:10
SP denotes pitcher NERD score.
TM denotes team score.
GM denotes overall game score.
Highlighted portion denotes game of the day.

* = Fewer than 10 IP, NERD at discretion of clueless author.

Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

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7 years ago

Might be one of the last chances, or even the last chance, to see Felix and Verlander square off while they’re both at least still hanging on to enough skill to think their teams have a chance. I’ll be turning back the clock and watching what used to be a classic matchup.

7 years ago

Yeah, I was just thinking how just a few years ago that would be must-watch, appointment viewing. You would’ve set a reminder on your iPhone 4S