NERD Game Scores for Monday, May 25, 2015
Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.s
Most Highly Rated Game
Washington at Chicago NL | 14:20 ET
Roark (20.1 IP, 119 xFIP-) vs. Wada (4.2 IP, 39 xFIP-)
Among pitchers who’ve (a) thrown at least 100 total innings over the last three seasons and also (b) recorded at least half their appearances in a starting capacity — among pitchers who meet both those criteria, Washington right-hander Tanner Roark has produced the fourth-greatest difference between his park-adjusted ERA and xFIP figures. Among pitchers who’ve thrown at least 200 innings and meet the other relevant criteria, Roark ranks second by that same measure. Raising the innings threshold to 250 innings places Roark atop the table — and raising it to 1000 innings eliminates every pitcher from the sample and renders the endeavor wholly meaningless.
A table expressing most of the above in mostly numeric form appears below. (Note that X-E denotes the difference between xFIP- and ERA-).
| # | Name | Team | GS% | IP | xFIP- | ERA- | X-E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chris Young | – – – | 82.5% | 199.2 | 135 | 85 | 50 |
| 2 | Nick Martinez | Rangers | 86.8% | 195.1 | 134 | 94 | 40 |
| 3 | Danny Duffy | Royals | 86.4% | 212.0 | 117 | 78 | 39 |
| 4 | Tanner Roark | Nationals | 62.1% | 272.2 | 101 | 70 | 31 |
| 5 | Hector Santiago | – – – | 76.4% | 324.1 | 118 | 89 | 29 |
| 6 | Tyler Chatwood | Rockies | 100.0% | 135.1 | 105 | 78 | 27 |
| 7 | Miguel Gonzalez | Orioles | 95.4% | 380.1 | 112 | 87 | 25 |
| 8 | Matt Moore | Rays | 100.0% | 160.1 | 110 | 86 | 24 |
| 9 | Jarred Cosart | – – – | 100.0% | 280.0 | 112 | 88 | 24 |
| 10 | Kyle Hendricks | Cubs | 100.0% | 126.0 | 103 | 80 | 23 |
It’s improbable but not impossible that Roark possesses some collection of skills that will allow him to continue preventing runs at his established levels while also recording fielding-independent numbers at his established levels. As PG Wodehouse’s insouciant aristocrat Psmith advises, however, one ought never to confuse the former (that is, the improbably) with the latter (the impossible).
Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Chicago NL Television.
A Single, Brief Note
Today’s Free Game
Today’s free game features Detroit at Oakland, starts at 4:05pm ET, and can be accessed by means of this hyperlinked text.
Complete Schedule
Here’s the complete and very sortable table for all of today’s games. Pitching probables and game times aggregated from MLB.com and also the rest of the internet. Note that the calculations both for team and game NERD scores have changed recently to better integrate playoff odds into same. Read more about those changes here, if you’re the sort of person accustomed to making poor life decisions.
| Away | SP | Tm. | Gm. | Tm. | SP | Home | Time | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Guthrie | KC | 1 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 8 | NYA | Nathan Eovaldi | 13:05 |
| Eddie Butler | COL | 0 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 5 | CIN | Jason Marquis | 13:10 |
| Sev.ino Gonzalez | PHI | 4 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 7 | NYN | Bartolo Colon | 13:10 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 7 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 3 | BAL | Wei-Yin Chen | 13:35 |
| Joe Kelly | BOS | 7 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 4 | MIN | Ricky Nolasco | 14:10 |
| Tim Lincecum | SF | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 5 | MIL | Kyle Lohse | 14:10 |
| Tanner Roark* | WAS | 7 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 6 | CHN | Tsuyoshi Wada* | 14:20 |
| Shane Greene | DET | 5 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 6 | OAK | Jesse Hahn | 16:05 |
| Phil Klein* | CLE | 4 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 5 | TEX | Shaun Marcum* | 16:10 |
| Chase Anderson | AZ | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 9 | STL | Carlos Martinez | 16:15 |
| David Phelps | MIA | 3 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 5 | PIT | Charlie Morton* | 19:05 |
| Hector Noesi | CHA | 2 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 7 | TOR | Drew Hutchison | 19:07 |
| Roenis Elias | SEA | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | TB | Jake Odorizzi | 19:10 |
| Williams Perez* | ATL | 6 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 7 | LAN | Brett Anderson | 20:10 |
| Tyson Ross | SD | 8 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 3 | LAA | Jered Weaver | 21:05 |
* = Fewer than 10 IP, NERD at discretion of very handsome author.
Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.
Happy Memorial Day, everyone.