NERD Game Scores for Tuesday, September 22, 2015
Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.
Most Highly Rated Game
New York AL at Toronto | 19:07 ET
Severino (43.1 IP, 92 xFIP-) vs. Estrada (160.1 IP, 123 xFIP-)
By the methodology typically employed by the author to produce these dumb NERD scores, tonight’s Yankees-Blue Jays game is not the most highly rated. That largely fictional distinction belongs to the Angels-Astros encounter in Houston. And, indeed, that game could very possibly offer a relentless barrage of thrill and delight. One variable omitted from the haphazardly derived algorithm, however — and perhaps especially relevant during the postseason stretch drive — is the influence of the crowd on the game-as-spectacle. For while fan involvement during last night’s Houston game was relatively subdued, that was very much the opposite case in Toronto. Indeed, the numbers support that observation.
| Game | Stadium | Capacity | Attendance | % of Capacity |
| NYA @ TOR | Rogers Centre | 54,000* | 47,648 | 88.2% |
| LAA @ HOU | Minute Maid Park | 41,574 | 25,318 | 60.9% |
The Rogers Centre, which is capable of holding about 12,000 more people than Minute Maid Park, was also nearly 30 percentage points closer to capacity last night. The result: a greater sense of urgency for the observer. Reason dictates that tonight’s games will offer a similar set of conditions.
Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Toronto Radio.
*As multiple concerned internet citizens note, Rogers Centre capacity has actually decreased in recent years. The website for the venue itself now reports capacities of 47,000-49,000.
Another Brief Note
Today’s Free Game
Today’s free game features Pittsburgh at Colorado, starts at 20:40 ET, and can be accessed by means of this hyperlinked text.
Complete Schedule
Here’s the complete and very sortable table for all of today’s games. Pitching probables and game times aggregated from MLB.com and also the rest of the internet. Note that the calculations both for team and game NERD scores have changed recently to better integrate playoff odds into same. Read more about those adjustments here and here.
| Away | SP | Tm. | Gm. | Tm. | SP | Home | Time | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 6 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | WAS | Gio Gonzalez | 19:05 |
| Luis Severino | NYA | 9 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 2 | TOR | Marco Estrada | 19:07 |
| Jose Quintana | CHA | 6 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | DET | Daniel Norris | 19:08 |
| Matthew Wisler | ATL | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 8 | NYN | Logan Verrett | 19:10 |
| Undecided* | PHI | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | MIA | Tom Koehler | 19:10 |
| Matt Moore | TB | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | BOS | Henry Owens | 19:10 |
| Undecided* | MIL | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 9 | CHN | Jake Arrieta | 20:05 |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | 10 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 4 | MIN | Ervin Santana | 20:10 |
| Hector Santiago | LAA | 2 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 8 | HOU | Lance McCullers | 20:10 |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | SEA | 8 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | KC | Jeremy Guthrie | 20:10 |
| Keyvius Sampson | CIN | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 5 | STL | John Lackey | 20:15 |
| J.A. Happ | PIT | 5 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 5 | COL | Chris Rusin | 20:40 |
| Martin Perez | TEX | 6 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 0 | OAK | Sean Nolin | 22:05 |
| Robbie Ray | AZ | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | LAN | Alex Wood | 22:10 |
| Chris Heston | SF | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 8 | SD | Tyson Ross | 22:10 |
* = Fewer than 10 IP, NERD at discretion of very handsome author.
Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.
Gotta feel a little bit bad for All-Star Hector, who’s NERD score is more than doubled by “undecided”, ouch.
Can’t decide whether to laugh or cry at this.
Is Rogers Centre really 54,000 capacity? I’m pretty sure all their games are sold out and the numbers being reported are in the 47 range
Tickets sold is a different number from attendance, which is always lower. Attendence is measured by the actual amount of people who come through the gate. A sold out game can include many people who didn’t show up, as well as any season ticket seats that go unoccupied.
You’re right. The site for the venue actually reports ca. 49K for baseball and 47K for football. Somewhere in there.
I saw part of the game last night, and noticed quite a lot of empty seats in the upper levels. Understood that attendance numbers are tickets sold rather than people in seats, but it would be awfully coincidental if most of the no-shows had nosebleed seats.
Not sure how that ties in to the capacity argument, actually, but I thought I would note it.
The missing people from the upper decks usually end up in the Flight Deck, which is the standing room section that is located beyond center field at the Rogers Centre.
Anyone with a ticket to the game can migrate down there on a first come first served basis. Makes it appear there are no shows but that is not the case, just people taking advantage of a better vantage point to enjoy the game at no extra cost.
The capacity for the flight deck is definitely no more than 500… which would real explain noticeable gaps in the 500s.
Ughhhhh sorry for the brain hemorrhage. Lets try that again:
The capacity for the flight deck is definitely no more than 500… which wouldn’t really explain noticeable gaps in the 500s.
So the Blue Jays and their fans have now broken NERD? Excellent.
With their team NERD at only 6 Anthopolis had to do something, so he broke NERD.
You gotta do some kind of NERD over time analysis with overall NERD and individual ream and pitcher NERD. The logos and noosphere and Geist demand it.
I understand its algorithm based, but can someone tell me how Arrieta isn’t a 10? Are his starts simple too boring as he as basically decided to stop letting the other team play?