NERD Game Scores for Wednesday, July 27, 2016

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Washington at Cleveland | 12:10 ET
Strasburg (120.2 IP, 74 xFIP-) vs. Carrasco (85.2 IP, 84 xFIP-)
As noted by August Fagerstrom less than a half-hour ago, Washington has lost each of its last two games by way of a Jonathan Papelbon blown save. Over his last two appearances, the Nationals’ closer has recorded just 0.2 innings while also facing 12 batters, producing merely a single strikeout during that interval. He’s also compiled a -1.34 win probability added (WPA) — which, when on considers that a club needs only to compile a 0.5 WPA to win a game, suggests that Papelbon has lost nearly three games by himself in just two appearances. Paradox? Yes. But also: no. Which, this is another fitting illustration of how truth or whatever doesn’t exist.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Washington Radio.

Two Other Brief Notes
Today’s Free Game
Today’s free game features Seattle at Pittsburgh, starts at 19:05 ET, and can be accessed by means of this hyperlinked text.

A Tortuous Explanation of NERD’s Ongoing Playoff Adjustment
As the season wears on, the algorithm for game NERD scores weights team scores progressively more heavily and pitcher scores less heavily — to account for the greater influence of a team’s posteason chances on the watchability of their games. Also as the season progresses, the algorithm for those team NERD scores weights various performance factors (weighted batting, adjusted home-run rate) less heavily and playoff odds more heavily.

The idea of the postseason adjustment is to assess higher NERD scores to clubs which feature less certainty regarding the postseason. To accomplish this, the author begins with the divisional odds and wild-card odds and finds the absolute value of each number minus 0.5 (or, 50%). I then add the results together divide by two. Then I subtract the result of that figure from 0.5 and multiply the resulting number by 20. Finally, I normalize all the scores to create a league average of 5.0.

Here’s all of that using Washington as an example. The Nationals have divisional and wild-card odds of 63.5% and 20.4%, respectively, using the site’s “coin flip” methodology (which seems to best represent how human minds conceive of postseason odds).

• [ |0.635 – 0.5| + |0.204 – 0.5| ] / 2 = 0.216
• (0.5 – 0.216) * 20 = 5.7

That 5.7 number is the postseason adjustment just before it’s normalized to create a league average of 5.0. The raw league average right now is 2.67. So, to find the Nationals’ score we subtract that figure from 5.0 and add the difference to the Nationals’ raw score.

So:

• 5.7 + (5.0 – 2.67) = 8.0

That 8.0 represents Washington’s current playoff adjustment. The more the season progresses, the more that figure will represent a team’s NERD score.

Complete Schedule
Here’s the complete and very sortable table for all of today’s games. Pitching probables and game times aggregated from MLB.com and also the rest of the internet. Note that calculations both for team and game NERD scores feature adjustment for postseason odds that increases as season progresses. Read more about those adjustments here and here.