Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 7/27/16

Dave Cameron: Happy Wednesday, everyone. We’re a few days away from the trade deadline, so I imagine most of the questions will revolve around whether we’ll see any interesting deals in the next few days.

Guest: Do the giants still make a bullpen move in your view in light of rising prices for relievers?

Dave Cameron: Yep. I don’t know that they’ll land a closer, necessarily, but I think they’ll get someone. Maybe Will Smith?

EC: So do Nats need a RP? Good case that Shawn Kelly should be better used, and maybe Reynaldo moved to the pen for the rest of the year. Outside of that, worth raiding the farm?

Dave Cameron: I think trusting Baker to use Kelley/Lopez correctly is probably too much to ask. So if they can get another good arm at a reasonable price, it’s worth doing. I can see why they didn’t think the price for Chapman was reasonable, though.

CamdenWarehouse: Javy Baez is outhitting Montero, Russell and Heyward, but usually is hitting behind them when he plays. Any idea on Maddon’s thought process there?

Dave Cameron: You don’t decide batting order based on in-season lines?

Houzer : Do you think the Tigers could get Moore for Boyd + a low prospect piece? Would be nice to see them heading into next season with a more established, high upside arm

Dave Cameron: Well Matt Moore isn’t very good.

Bernie: Do you think that Gallo coming up now is somewhat of a tell that the Rangers don’t think they have any deals line up to make with him? Curious timing.

Dave Cameron: Yes. I don’t think you promote him only to trade him a few days later. I think it’s a sign they’re out on Sale.

PL: Will Oakland get less of a haul from Rich Hill if his blister doesn’t heal and he doesn’t make one final start before the deadline?

Dave Cameron: Yes.

Dave Cameron: At this point, it’s very hard to give up a serious return for him if he can’t pitch.

Bernie: White Sox have to be tempted to move Sale for Urias+, right? Urias has more value than a Moncada or Giolito no?

Dave Cameron: I’d rather have Moncada than Urias, but yes, he’s ahead of Giolito. If I’m the White Sox, I’m probably not trading Sale for a package built around an arm, just because arms break so often. I know Urias could be special, but I’d prefer a bat-first package.

Dweep: In retrospect, the Wade Miley trade was dismal for the Mariners, right? Giving up a controllable asset like Elias, who probably would have garnered the same results, and a big pen piece like Smith, who had been dominating in his most recent stint as setup guy. Wade Miley is crap.

Dave Cameron: Elias is a Triple-A player and Smith blew out his elbow. Maybe pick a different deal to get upset about?

Michael: Starting to get the sense Reddick won’t get moved?

Dave Cameron: No, I think he’s gone.

TP for my Jung Ho: Re: reliever valuation, has there been any attempt to differentiate statistics for closers in save vs non-save situations? It seems to me, that with high-end closers, that when they’re brought in just to get an inning of work in a non-save situation, they are far more likely to give up a run. With the limited body of work, that can really skew the data in a hurry.

Dave Cameron: That’s been mostly debunked.

Bernie: David Robertson isn’t worth the $25mm left on his deal after 2016, but would someone still take that deal on waivers? Given relief market?

Dave Cameron: Yes, he’d get claimed. And I bet he gets traded before Monday.

Alex: What moves if any, do you see the Dodgers making at the deadline?

Dave Cameron: With Ethier’s return looking more questionable, I’d bet they’ll get an outfielder. And some pitching, whether SP or RP.

Joe: Do you find the White Sox decision to sell a little weird? After spending the off-season going all-in this year, they’re right at their preseason projection (50-50). Did they actually misjudge their potential by that much?

Dave Cameron: Not really. They pushed in hoping things would go right, and they haven’t.

Ed in Iowa: I read what you and August each wrote about it and listened to this week’s chat (you were pretty snarky to Carson about the reed grass), so I guess I kind of know what you think. But upon seeing what the Cubs gave for Chapman I began to wonder whether they (and perhaps other front offices) have done some whiz bang analysis of win probability added in 100,000 or so simulated playoff games and convinced themselves that 10-15 innings of Chapman, plus the slotting down of the other relievers is just WAY more valuable than we realize. Do you suppose that’s possible?

Dave Cameron: I’m sure they’ve done that kind of analysis. I don’t think it’s likely that the analysis suggests that relievers are as valuable as starting pitchers, and the Cubs gave up a package of talent that puts Chapman’s value at ace-starter levels.

Dave Cameron: The Cubs gave up more for Chapman than the Royals gave up for Cueto a year ago, for instance.

Ed in Iowa: Does Carson tell you ahead of time what you will be talking about? Or conversely, do you tell him what you want to talk about?

Dave Cameron: Nope. I otherwise would have prepared for our conversation about weeds this week.

Gary: Can the Braves win around 80 games next year? Swanson/Albies will be up, $60 million to spend this offseason on the offense in FA and trades, plus Folty coming on?

Dave Cameron: Can they? Sure, anything can happen. But this is a ~65 win team right now. Asking for a 15 win true talent bump is probably unrealistic.

Sean P: Has the Cubs preference to include Torres, Warren, and McKinney in a trade instead of Schwarber made you rethink Schwarber’s value/upside? Given the history of player development with Epstein, Hoyer, McCloud, etc., I would wonder if one of the better front offices in the game making such a decision has had any influence over your opinion on Schwarber.

Dave Cameron: I don’t think appeals to authority qualify as good analysis.

Thomas: Carson knows that “practical analytics” is just economics, right?

Dave Cameron: I’m going to buy him Richard Thaler’s book at some point.

Jaack: What is your hottest take on the Benoit-Storen swap?

Dave Cameron: Both guys are likely to pitch better in their new cities, leading both team’s fanbases to claim they won the trade.

Definitely Frank: I’ve been hitting it off with a girl via text, but she never initiates the conversation. Problem?

Dave Cameron: I wonder what it is about me that caused you to think “I bet this guy knows his way around the ladies.”

Josh: Do you think Wade Davis or Andrew Miller move and do they actually get a bigger package than Yankees got for Chapman? I realize they should be worth more cause of the added control but how do you turn down ~50+ M in value for ~25-30 M…

Dave Cameron: I don’t think either of those guys gets traded, no. The prices are just too high.

Joe: If you’re the Rangers, would you give up Profar and Gallo for Sale?

Dave Cameron: Without even thinking about it. He’s worth both those guys and a lot more.

Jason: Seems like you and some of the other writers at Fangraphs have really wrestled with the question of Chapman’s value to the Cubs RoS. I think this is the right way to go about it, seeing as there is a lot of gray area with reliever value. Meanwhile, there is a sect of analytical baseball writers that flat-out dismiss his value to the club as a rental, and are just going the “The Cubs are being stupid” route. I *feel* like the latter group is vastly understating Chapman’s value, but it’s hard to make a real argument against it without saying something silly like “The Cubs are smart. I trust them”. What would your argument be in this instance? Or do you find yourself more aligned with the ppl that think the Cubs simply made a bad move?

Dave Cameron: I think the Cubs overpaid, and I think they know they probably overpaid, but I think they viewed that as a better option than doing nothing. And I think that’s probably reasonable. For instance, my wife and I are currently house shopping for a new home given our impending move to Oregon, and there’s a house that we like, but I think the current asking price is probably $10-$15K too high. But if we don’t buy that house, we might end up renting, and so I’m weighing whether it’s better to “overpay” for this house versus have to move several times with a small kid, not be able to really settle in, not be able to paint his room, etc… Sometimes, you can rationalize paying a higher price for something than you think that thing is worth if you don’t like the alternatives.

LarryA: Any thought as to moving relievers way higher in your trade value rankings next year? Gotta think Betances, Kenley, a few other, could return a kings ransom if moved.

Dave Cameron: Kenley is a pending free agent, so he’d get something like the Chapman deal, and none of the guys the Cubs gave up were anywhere near the trade value list. Betances is probably the most valuable RP in the game right now, contract included, but I still don’t think he’d bring back more than a good young starter like Jon Gray or Carlos Martinez.

Rob: Who takes the AL West?

Dave Cameron: Houston.

jpg: How big of a mistake is the Yankees apparent refusal to trade Miller? Have to believe the Nats or someone else will pay through the nose.

Dave Cameron: Well they just tried to charge the Cubs a through-the-nose price and the Cubs wouldn’t pay it.

Joel: Is there a baseball park that you haven’t been to, but you’d like to?

Dave Cameron: Pittsburgh. Trying to figure out a way to get there before I move west.

Lucas: Settle a popular argument in the Pirates community – Is Mark Melancon a realistic QO candidate?

Dave Cameron: Yes.

rustydude: How often do you get wind of a possible trade before it shows up on MLB Trade Rumors site?

Dave Cameron: Occasionally. I’ve got enough friends in the game that I’ll hear stuff sometimes, but Rosenthal/Heyman are so connected that they get 95% of stuff before anyone else.

JD: Which contender do you think has the single biggest need?

Dave Cameron: The Rangers SPs after Hamels/Darvish are a dumpster fire.

E: Probably safe to say Dodgers missed out on the better buying opportunity last year for a top tier SP (Hamels) than possible this year. Best off trying to trade off some system depth for RP’s this year?

Dave Cameron: No, they made the right call passing on Hamels.

Dave Cameron: And this idea that the team that leads MLB in pitching WAR needs another high-end starter remains silly.

Slew: I know we’re all looking for post hoc justifications for the the price the Cubs paid for Chapman, but it’s insane, right?

Dave Cameron: I don’t know that it’s insane. It’s an overpay, definitely, but one of the main arguments for not making trades like this is that you could use that prospect capital to acquire a different upgrade. But what else were the Cubs going to upgrade?

Alex: Does fWAR take into account the leverage of the innings pitched? Im particularly wondering in the case of high leverage relievers like closers. It feels odd that a great closer would only provide 2-3 additional wins over a replacement level closer.

Dave Cameron: Yes, leverage is included.

Dave Cameron: And keep in mind that there’s no such thing as a “replacement level closer”. If a stud goes down, they don’t put the minor league callup into the 9th inning. He gets replaced by another good reliever (usually), and then everyone just gets bumped up in role.

CameronDaClub: Two years ago this question would’ve been stupid, but now I’m less certain — does Felix make the HOF?

Dave Cameron: I’m not confident about any starting pitcher. The voters won’t put Mussina or Schilling in, and they have impeccable resumes. The bar for a starting pitcher to clear right now is stupid.

Sublime-a-rita: As time has gone on, it kinda looks like the Brewers are going to hold Lucroy and Braun, think they are both in different unis on Aug 2?

Dave Cameron: They’ll trade Lucroy. They can trade Braun in August if they want, since he’ll clear waivers, so there’s no time pressure there.

Warrior: Dave, after this season, Elvis Andrus has 6 years/$88M guaranteed left on his deal. He projects to about a 2.2 win season this year. My friends says the Rangers will likely trade him in the offseason, and will have no trouble doing so. i think that contract/production makes him untradable. Thoughts?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, no one’s taking that contract right now. Especially with the opt-outs; if he plays well for the new team, they lose him. He’s an underwater contract.

Ryan: On the podcast you said that, other than one of the Yankees lefties, there weren’t any other opportunities for the Cubs to improve via trade. Seems to me like they could use some help in the OF. Would Josh Reddick make sense?

Dave Cameron: How much better is Reddick than Contreras/Soler/Almora, really? A little bit, sure, but it’s not a huge improvement.

Guesto: True or False: Miller to Nationals for one of Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, Victor Robles, Joe Ross or Trea Turner became inevitable after last night.

Dave Cameron: False.

Alex: He just got roughed up, but do you see LA calling up JDL to either fill out the rotation or pen? Seems he may be in AAA to showcase as tradebait

Dave Cameron: I would imagine that he’s on a big league roster, LA’s or otherwise, in August.

Dave : If you are running the Braves, do you trade Teheran this weekend?

Dave Cameron: I’d have traded him a month ago.

jpg: Should teams like the Mariners, Yankees or Royals – teams that are just about out of it for the playoffs this year but not rebuilding heavily pursue Chris Sale if he can in fact be had?

Dave Cameron: No. Paying the deadline premium for a big upgrade in a year where you’re unlikely to make the playoffs is not wise.

Jack: Do you still think Jason Heyward was worth the contract he got?

Dave Cameron: Yes.

Dan O: If Robertson gets dealt to the Nationals, you think he would assume closer role?

Dave Cameron: Yep.

Jack: Sort of thinking “out loud” but any thoughts on how Heyward busting in Chicago could impact the perception of defense-first players? Or is this not a thing, really.

Dave Cameron: Do you think Upton busting in Detroit impacts the perception of offense-first players?

JD: At this point in the season, what was your favorite off season deal?

Dave Cameron: I mean, it has to be the Braves end of the Shelby Miller deal, right?

Bausch: What does a cardinals package for sale look like? Reyes+?

Dave Cameron: Reyes plus a lot.

Jeb: For a Sale trade with Urias as the centerpiece, aren’t the extra pieces extremely important? I have a hard time understanding why you’d trade a top 5 pitcher on a great contract for a potentially top 5 pitcher (but unlikely to reach that ceiling because top 5 is hard!) with more control and a cheaper contract.

Dave Cameron: Well, we shouldn’t pretend that there’s no risk with Sale, and only act like Urias has risk. Both have risk, and if you think Sale’s decline in strikeout rate is a red flag, perhaps Sale’s risk is on the rise.

Dave Cameron: But yes, I’d want more than Urias for Sale if I’m Chicago.

Erik: The real questions about the Chapman trade should focus on the high price for a rental, not the high price for the reliever, right? The Cubs gave up 7 years of a top prospect for a few months of a star closer, plus other pieces. That seems quite high.

Dave Cameron: Right. If this package was traded for Miller, no one would have a problem with it.

Dave Cameron: Or even Kimbrel. This is in line with what San Diego gave up for a reliever, but it wasn’t a rental reliever.

Maxamuz: With the news James Shields is back on the trade market, who buys? LAD? BOS?

Dave Cameron: During this six start stretch where he’s “fixed” his problems and posted a 1.71 ERA, he’s running a 4.85 FIP/5.10 xFIP. No one should be very interested unless the White Sox are literally giving him away.

Kolbe: With the price of high leverage relievers being a bit high at the moment. There’s no way the Nats trade Giolito for something like Miller and Gardner, right?

Dave Cameron: Well they don’t really need Brett Gardner.

Dave Cameron: And I don’t think they’ll trade Giolito.

Matt: From a value standpoint (ignoring the fact of whether or not this would actually happen), do you think Giolito for Miller is about right, or not enough or too much coming back to the Yanks?

Dave Cameron: Too much.

Dave Cameron: Giolito for Betances would be interesting.

Erik: What does the “trading block” actually look like? Is there some sort of private forum where teams make their players’ availability known, or do teams prefer to keep that knowledge secret?

Dave Cameron: It’s basically just teams texting each other. There’s no community center where teams post “for sale” signs.

Matt: What’s the most obvious deal that should happen, but won’t, for whatever reason?

Dave Cameron: Braves trading Teheran.

Mike: If a team like the Dodgers traded for Sale/Quintana/Archer as a rental planning to trade them during the off-season for most of what they gave up to acquire them, would that be smart?

Dave Cameron: The deadline premium probably makes that untenable.

Mike Scarn: I will buy Fangraphs membership every year for the rest of my life if you say “it’s lit, fam” on your next MLB Network appearance.

Dave Cameron: So you think the price for my soul is $20 per year?

Paul M: How is your health Dave? Love your work…

Dave Cameron: My five year remission mark is ~a month away. We’re planning a big party. Thanks for asking!

Guest: If the Red Sox were willing to include both Moncada and Benintendi for Sale, do you think the White Sox would make the trade?

Dave Cameron: Yes.

Dave Cameron: But I don’t think Boston would do that.

Aaron: You said “appeals to authority don’t qualify as good analysis”, but aren’t you already sort of appealing to authority by giving the trade so much thought? I feel like if Dave Stewart made the same trade he would just be killed for it instantly.

Dave Cameron: Can you show me an example of a time where Dave Stewart (or a similar GM) made this kind of deal and I crushed it without any consideration of the possibility it could be worth it?

Dave Cameron: Probably the deal I’ve been most stringently against, besides the Shelby Miller craziness, was the Wil Myers/James Shields swap. And even in those posts, I wrote thousands of words explaining my thinking.

Tony: In theory, the fact that Torres was “blocked” shouldn’t really factor into the pure value analysis of the Chapman trade, right?

Dave Cameron: It reduces Torres’ value to the Cubs, but it shouldn’t have affected his market value to other teams. The “problem” for the Cubs is that they didn’t really have any other weaknesses to address.

Concerned White Sox Fan: MLB Central suggest a trade where the White Sox give up Sale and Eaton with the Nationals sending Giolito, Joe Ross, Trea Turner, and Victor Robles? Is that fair value? Seems like the Sox are giving up too much here.

Dave Cameron: You think the White Sox are giving up too much there?

Dave Cameron: The Nationals wouldn’t do that.

Definitely Richie: Hey, you’re married and we’re not. At least you managed to fool one more babe than we have so far.

Dave Cameron: Trust me, my wife did not marry me for my charms.

Aaron: Anything to the idea that – by paying so much for Chapman – the Cubs also priced other teams out on other good relievers (or even other trade chips, period), so maybe they thought of it as strengthening themselves, while weakening opponents? I mean, obv they didn’t *want* to give up so much, but is it possible that this was a factor in going through with the trade?

Dave Cameron: I don’t think so. By making the trade, they also took themselves out of the buying pool for RPs, thus potentially weakening sellers leverage.

Justin: If the general consensus is that the Cubs overpaid for Chapman, why all the talk about the new market for relievers? Shouldn’t other clubs just be like, “no, that’s too much, we all know the Cubs overpaid.”

Dave Cameron: That’s pretty much what teams still looking for RPs are saying.

Dan: Is there any reason for the Yankees to trade Miller? Would he fetch less a year from now?

Dave Cameron: Of course he would. There’s nowhere for him to go but down in terms of performance, and he’ll have one fewer year of team control next summer.

Billy Beane: Do I QO Rich Hill if he can’t pitch and/or the return is too light? 2/23 (this year plus a QO) isn’t a bad deal for a guy who puts up numbers like he does, even if he’s pretty fragile.

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I think a Hill QO is probably getting more likely at this point.

Aaron: A lot of ppl seem to think the package for Chapman was more valuable than Schwarber. So you could make the case that they did “pay through the nose”, just for the wrong guy, and using the wrong trade chip(s).

Dave Cameron: I haven’t found too many people who think this package > Schwarber, at least in terms of market value.

Will Graham: But the Dodgers might not get Kershaw back and he’s essentially the only reason their WAR is that high. What do they do without Clayton, exactly?

Dave Cameron: You think Kershaw has +16 WAR in half a season?

Dave Cameron: They start Maeda, McCarthy, Kazmir, Norris, and Urias or De Leon, and maybe Ryu comes back. And that’s if they don’t have Kershaw, which isn’t a given. The Dodgers rotation is good. People will just have to accept this at some point.

Aaron: I mean, the Cubs could’ve used Torres in a package to acquire a ToR starter in the coming year(s). Arrieta is a free agent soon, and the rest of the guys aren’t getting any younger. They’ll need pitching help soon.

Dave Cameron: Sure. That’s the “do nothing at the deadline” argument.

Dave Cameron: But I think that’s probably a tough one to swallow when your team is this good and your owners really want to win.

Dan: The Cubs could have gone after another starting pitcher, right? Their staff is good, but playoff dominant good?

Dave Cameron: Yes. Arrieta/Lester is as good a 1-2 as there is in baseball right now, Hendricks is way better than everyone thinks, and almost no one has a #4 in Lackey’s class.

Matt: How would handle Aaron Sanchez for rest of year?

Dave Cameron: Leave him in the rotation, skip some starts.

HUNGRY: How often do you get inside info that you cannot share?

Dave Cameron: I’m not really in the rumor/breaking news game, so when I hear stuff, I don’t really put it out there.

Ed in Iowa: Don’t feel compelled to post this, but just FYI: having been to 21 stadiums, Pittsburgh is far and away my favorite and I am not a Pirates fan

Dave Cameron: Yeah, everyone says the stadium there is awesome. I really want to get there.

Joe: How many people need to agree to buy Fangraphs membership every year for you to say “it’s lit, fam”? Because I will join Mike Scarn on doing it.

Dave Cameron: 10,000

Paul: Are teams allowed to do a true rental trade for a player whose contract runs past this year? i.e. Angels trade Yunel Escobar to the Mets, with an agreement in place that he comes back to Angels in the offseason?

Dave Cameron: Nope; the CBA prevents that.

Owen G. : Let’s talk move….you are a) shipping all your stuff and flying with your family? or b) driving across the country

Dave Cameron: Shipping all our stuff, then driving the dog across the country. Wife/kid flying a little bit later.

Dave Cameron: We don’t think the dog would fare very well in a plane.

Robin: Has there been any public study on the net financial impact of trading for/signing a big name player? Through additional attendance, jersey sales, etc. I have a hard time believing there is not a positive correlation between getting a marque name and additional revenue for the team

Dave Cameron: Yeah, people have studied the issue. There’s a very short-term attendance boost that doesn’t last. It’s not a huge factor.

Concerned White Sox Fan: Sale for Bryant straight up?

Dave Cameron: Cubs wouldn’t do that.

Dave Cameron: Okay, off to do some writing. Thanks for hanging out everyone. We’ll have trade coverage all weekend, so if teams actually do anything, we’ll be here.