Nicholas Minnix Baseball Chat – 7/25/14

11:19

Nicholas Minnix: Good afternoon and good morning, baseball fans! I’ll be with you for a little more than an hour, beginning at the top of the hour upcoming!

11:56
Comment From Sad Jays Fan
Marcus Stroman as a starter: 61 IP, 2.21 ERA, K-BB% of 17.2%, 2.93 FIP, 3.28 xFIP. Thoughts on him ROS? Thoughts on his ceiling long term?

11:58

Nicholas Minnix: Like him, like him. ROS as a starter, maybe 3.50, 3.75, kinda like the systems have him. I don’t think his ceiling is much higher than what he’s doing now, but I think he can do this (a 3.25-3.75 type ERA, not 2.21) in multiple seasons, occasionally wow, occasionally disappoint. Very polished, smart guy.

11:59
Comment From Sean
Does humidity/temperature/weather affects really factor into WAR calculations?

11:59

Nicholas Minnix: Not my knowledge. http://www.fangraphs.com/li…

11:59
Comment From MB, SC
Is Lindor’s defense Vizquel worthy?

12:01

Nicholas Minnix: Man, I don’t know about that. To me, Vizquel is virtually untouchable, so I won’t call anyone. Lindor is very very good, isn’t that inspiring for now? Haha, I’m sure he’ll be a GG winner more than once.

12:02
Comment From Don
In a dynasty pts based league, would you rather have Kris Bryant or Wil Myers and Oscar Taveras?

12:05

Nicholas Minnix: Man, tough call, I think. It’s really about Taveras vs. Bryant. In pts league I’d rather have Bryant alone. Myers may never be more than an OK fantasy OF, maybe a bit better, but could be worse. I’m more confident that Bryant won’t bust than Taveras, but only by a hair. Odd given the swing and miss of one and not the other. Either way, I don’t think you’ll go wrong. I think I lean Bryant. Not easy choice. I might say Taveras side, with Myers a nice tiebreaker, tomorrow.

12:05
Comment From Sad Jays Fan
Love the chat. Please rank ROS for my Util position: Choo, Vogt, Alex Gordon.

12:06

Nicholas Minnix: Gordon, Vogt (C elig), Choo. Choo just not offering much. Not sure of Vogt’s PT, but he performs when he plays. Some correction for him due, surely.

12:06
Comment From Sad Jays Fan
Thoughts on Steve Pearce ROS?

12:07

Nicholas Minnix: Should tank sooner or later. Hard to predict, really. On one hand I wonder if he hasn’t figured something out, sort of like Brandon Moss did. On the other, I don’t see as much in his numbers to suggest that he has, like we can with Moss. Still seems likely to struggle vs. RHPs eventually. Don’t rule it out, tho, I never say never.

12:08
Comment From Finding Forrester
What do you see as the best strategy to solidify your team for 10 Team H2H, 2 keeper playoffs? 5 teams are so close in talent that it’s a toss up who will win in a given week. I have 8 SPs/3 closers. I want to go all in this year and that’s where I’m strongest.

12:12

Nicholas Minnix: Man, that’s a fun question, and I’m out of my element a bit in H2H. OK, best strategy. You’re really strong in the pitching department. What kind of strat are you looking for? Make sure your lineup is full on MON, THU, if you have recyclable hitters? I’d comb my lineup to see who’s likelier to lose PT in September … maybe even deal one or two of them. A wide open ?, especially given the format. I see no best strat, just to keep eyes peeled for opportunities to game the system a bit.

12:12
Comment From Dan
Who should I drop in a 12 team roto? Minor or Choo. Who has the best chance to turn it around?

12:12

Nicholas Minnix: I’d drop Minor. Easier to replace, likely, either way.

12:13
Comment From Sad Jays Fan
Gausman a good start in Seattle tonight?

12:14

Nicholas Minnix: I think he’s … OK. QS is doable, better than 50-50, I’d guess.

12:14

Nicholas Minnix: Hope that Kendrys Morales is in the lineup! (I think.)

12:17
Comment From Jake
There’s a lot of variance between the BaseRuns record on fan graphs, and the projected finish in season to date stats mode. Why? What formula does season to date sats mode use?

12:17
Comment From Jake
The Padres 2014 BaseRuns RS/G: 3.03. If I understand BaseRuns correctly (I don’t), at this level of production, the Padres should have scored 3 runs or so per game in 2014?

12:21

Nicholas Minnix: I’m not really sure, to be honest. Season-to-date BaseRuns, yes, this is just another way to approximate the value of team performance, basically, as I understand it. I don’t know that ROS projections are updated with season-to-date performance taken into account, at least not heavily, and understandably so, so that’s why they could easily be different.

12:21

Nicholas Minnix: I wish I could be of more help, but this isn’t my forte.

12:21
Comment From Jake
Dellin Betances true talent ERA:

12:23

Nicholas Minnix: The type of variance he could have is wide. As a RP, he would be between 2.00 and 3.00, in my estimation. I think he’s closer to 2.00 in most seasons.

12:23
Comment From Sad Jays Fan
Did you like what you saw in Salazar on Tuesday? Thoughts on him ROS?

12:24

Nicholas Minnix: Sort of. He walked three in one inning I believe. Same problems as usual. ROS, I like, but not in more than 15-team mixed league. Could be a 3.00 ERA ROS, could be 4.50. K’s should be there, at least.

12:24
Comment From alex
So I am a believer that Tulo won’t be traded at all, certainly not during this season. But lets say that he somehow gets traded this offseason– what do you think of Mets trading Synd, Niese, and Flores (assuming they don’t need d’arnaud) for Tulo, good enough/too much?

12:25

Nicholas Minnix: I have my doubts about whether the Rockies would consider that enough. I’d consider that a win for the Mets, surely. I believe as you do.

12:25
Comment From Scooby
Wilin Rosario has really been disappointing. In a 12-team mixed redraft (I have a power-based H2H team in a categories league), do I stick with him ROS and hope he rebounds or cut bait and pick up one of the following: Salty, Norris, Jaso, Navarro, or Zunino? Thanks, Nick!

12:26

Nicholas Minnix: Yes, it’s been tough with him. I’d consider dropping him only for Jaso or Norris. Norris is due some negative regression (and is having it). Jaso is reliable. I’d rather take my chances with Rosario ROS over the others, though. It’s hard for me to endorse dropping him. If it’s a 1-C league, I’d say do it for sure, tho.

12:27
Comment From Shawn
Would you trade someone like Longo or Cespedes for Taveras in a dynasty league? (out of contention this year)

12:27

Nicholas Minnix: Depends on your keeper rules. Many keepers, long periods, it’s something to consider. Shorter terms, fewer keepers, I’d say no.

12:27
Comment From Jake
Betances finishes 2014, 2015 with something like the numbers he’s putting up now. What’s his new nickname? Dealin’ Dellin? Blackjack? Raw Deal? Something about deals?

12:28

Nicholas Minnix: LOL, not bad. How about plays on Betances. Betances with Wolves. IDK.

12:28
Comment From Matt Damon
MATT. DAMON.

12:28
Comment From Shawn
Do you see any of Heyward, Harper, or C. Davis having a nice little run these last 2 months?

12:29

Nicholas Minnix: Yep, Harper I’m optimistic, Davis I’m expecting it.

12:29
Comment From Midre Cummins
Can you rank Hellickson, Elias, H. Santiago, Shoemaker, and Chris Young ROS? Thanks Nicholas!

12:30

Nicholas Minnix: Oy. Elias, Shoemaker, Young, Hellickson, Santiago. This is a total crapshoot, FYI. And it might look totally different in a week.

12:30
Comment From PieTraynee
Should we expect better results from Liriano for the rest of the season?

12:31

Nicholas Minnix: I believe so. I think the time down was good for him. Oblique strain … tricky, tho. Hope he’s completely healed. I’m cautiously optimistic, hope he does better with men on base. And stop putting men on base so easily.

12:31
Comment From Jake
Favorite type of prospect to dream on?

12:32
Nicholas Minnix: Cute ones. Um, otherwise, it’s the HR-hitting,
12:32
Comment From Kicked in the Goins
Most likeley to disappoint when return from DL: Myers, Lind, or Lawrie?

12:32

Nicholas Minnix: Haha, well. Myers, I’d guess, because he was already disappointing.

12:33
Comment From MALLOW
How would you rank these high-K/9 relievers ROS: Boxberger, Fields, or A. Miller

12:33

Nicholas Minnix: Box, Miller, Fields

12:34
Comment From Guest
Do teams that play on artificial turf get penalized in their range factors for ground balls?

12:34

Nicholas Minnix: Boxberger, Miller, Fields … this one didn’t come thru?

12:34

Nicholas Minnix: Park factors in UZR are supposed to account for surface.

12:35
Comment From S. Beans
Hi Nick, 14 team keep 3 league. Keeper value based on previous year’s draft round plus inflation. Is it worth keeping King Felix with a 3rd next year or throw him back in the pool and roll the dice on a guy like Kris Bryant in the 20th? Have a hard time talking myself into keeping a pitcher after Jose Fernandez burned me this year. Miggy and Carlos Gomez other 2 keepers.

12:35

Nicholas Minnix: Yeah, I generally don’t rec to keep pitching. Especially to give up a 3rd. Know the King has been stellar, but I’m with you.

12:36
Comment From Mike
Is this a good time to trade for Harper? He seems awfully low right now and I could use some outfield help.

12:36

Nicholas Minnix: It’s def not a bad time.

12:36
Comment From Kicked in the Goins
Marwin Gonzalez or Chris Taylor ROS in redraft?

12:36

Nicholas Minnix: Like Marwin, but only in very deep leagues. Very willing to take a shot on Taylor.

12:36
Comment From Lily
I give Arrietta/Feliz/A. Reed for his J Zimm/k. Jansenn….. Good deal a little worried about JZimm. Roto 5 X 5

12:38

Nicholas Minnix: Love Zimmermann. I don’t see much of advantage, tho. Arrieta could do just as well ROS. I’d take Zimmermann, but you’re giving up 2 CLs for one, better one granted. In the sense that you open a roster spot and could slot a better pitcher in over those you trade away, that’s a good deal.

12:38
Comment From bubsy
Who do you like nmore ROS, Arcia or Nava?

12:39

Nicholas Minnix: I have a sneaky suspicion on Nava. But he doesn’t do much of the counting stuff. So, Arcia may be a fail, but I’ll take my chance with him, probably.

12:39
Comment From Jake
Mets trying for Tulo. What’s their game here? 2015 or bust?

12:39

Nicholas Minnix: It could be, 2015 or 2016 as the window. But let’s not get carried away on the idea yet.

12:39
Comment From bubsy
Will Montero get a fair chance at PT? He’s crushing Triple A again even if he’s iommature personality-wise

12:40

Nicholas Minnix: I hope so, but have my doubts. He’s what they need, the power RHB. My guess, he will, but too late to affect much for fantasy, sometime in September, if/when Morales remains lame.

12:40
Comment From ACC
Ryan Zimmerman down need fill in : Holt,Chris Johnson or Josh Harrison??? 5X5 Roto

12:41

Nicholas Minnix: Harrison I like a little more, useful player (other positions). Doesn’t play as often, though, so if that’s a factor for you, Johnson.

12:41
Comment From bubsy
How would you compare Chris Taylor’s expectations to Brad Miller’s when he first got the call last year?

12:43

Nicholas Minnix: Pretty similar, really, IMO. Taylor’s performance may be a little more at risk, but he offers more speed (in terms of fantasy).

12:43
Comment From Reginald Denton III
Is this Anthony Rizzo’s peak, or does he still have some room to grow?

12:44

Nicholas Minnix: A little more room to grow, in terms of skills stability, but that I think will aid his reliability more than it’ll influence his power production or AVG or OBP or anything like that. It’s pretty good as is, no?

12:44
Comment From Jim Johnsons banana pancakes
Is Joe Smith now totally droppable in a non-holds league?

12:45

Nicholas Minnix: Yes

12:45

Nicholas Minnix: At least in mixed ones

12:45
Comment From title run
currently in a 3 way battle for 2nd place. which 2 of 3 do i rely on for ROS: hanley, bogaerts, segura?

12:45

Nicholas Minnix: I’d have to ride with Hanley, Segura

12:45
Comment From Jim Johnsons banana pancakes
How would you rank Quintana, Lackey, Keuchel, Chris Young ROS?

12:46

Nicholas Minnix: Lackey, Quintana, Keuchel, Young. All solid, Young just unpredictable.

12:46

Nicholas Minnix: Unless Lackey shows more extended fatigue or something.

12:46
Comment From bruce wayning?
your thoughts on jay bruce? is he going to show up? his usual 30 HRs, 9 SBs pace would be nice if he could find it.

12:47

Nicholas Minnix: Thought is he hasn’t been 100% this year, for most of it. May not be. Have to live with it. Wouldn’t trade him unless I got a decent return.

12:47
Comment From lunch
who do you like for the rest of the season at ss – brad miller or arismendy alcantara?

12:47

Nicholas Minnix: Alcantara no doubt

12:47
Comment From (not that) James
To what extent would you discount the “Flags Fly Forever” philosophy in a H2H points league? That is, I’m willing to weaken my future team to win this year, but the championship game (if I even get there) is such a crapshoot that I’m not sure how much I’m willing to weaken my team next year for a shot this year.

12:49

Nicholas Minnix: LOL, well, I understand your point. Still think I’d go for it, because a chance is a chance. If you were in a roto league, you might consider your position now unbeatable, but much changes in 2 months. You may not need to weaken the future team much. It’s case by case – what can you get? How good are you at making a short-term, helpful pickup that puts you over the top in a given week? How often are players like that available? Are players who get PT in Sept. generally factors in your league (depth)? Depends on a lot.

12:50
Comment From boom for bust?
when will i begin to regret trading $4 baez and $7 dom brown for $12 puig?

12:50

Nicholas Minnix: Haha, probably only if/when Puig gets his own reality TV show. Otherwise, I wouldn’t complain. You KNOW he’s good. The others, well. … Baez I like, but he could easily bust. Relax.

12:51
Comment From Larry David
Dropped Nathan for Chris Taylor because **** Nathan. Strikes out the side last night. I won’t regret this right?

12:51

Nicholas Minnix: LOL … Not if you have 3 other closers. I tend not to drop those, unless I already have others. He does generally seem to be old and stinky, tho.

12:53

Nicholas Minnix: There are SV situations I don’t like to touch. I won’t, in most cases. In this one, if I still had him, I’d probably have held on a bit longer to see what happened. (Maybe bench him, depending on my team, again.)

12:53
Comment From Phil
With the season Tulo is having but the Rockies being out of contention, would be consider shutting him down?

12:53

Nicholas Minnix: Not until September, and with something more serious than a hip flexor strain.

12:54
Comment From Mookie The Wookie
In a 12 team 5 man keeper league. $280 budget keep forever at cost. Undrafted players that are picked up and kept at $10. This I believe inflates the values of everyone especially young players. I have Harper @ $47 and I just don’t know if hes worth that. My other options Include $1 Yelich, $1 Frazior, $2 Kluber and try and buy back Harper at a lesser cost.

12:54

Nicholas Minnix: I think this is a good year to consider doing that. Just project, do you have an idea of what he’d go for next year? You know your league better than I do. Peg a price range. If you come up with about the same or less, then I’d definitely consider doing that.

12:55

Nicholas Minnix: If Harper goes bonkers for a month or two to close this one out, then the story may be different. Keep that in mind.

12:55
Comment From Adrian
Have Wheeler vs Gallardo tonight, both on my team. Start both blindly?

12:56

Nicholas Minnix: If I usually start those guys, then I’d start them. I don’t care that they face each other.

12:56
Comment From Jason
Dynasty points league: I give F. Liriano, Pearce, Hammel, Jake Lamb, James Ramsey for Scherzer. Thoughts?

12:57

Nicholas Minnix: Hey, if the other person goes for it, sure. Lamb … seems like an OK player, doubtful that he’s a star, rest is fodder.

12:57
Comment From Larry David
I feel like whoever trades for Colon is going to be sorely disappointed with his 2nd half.

12:57

Nicholas Minnix: Haha, maybe. In the AL, possibly. I think Colon is a good pitcher, a plus in the playoffs, great command.

12:57
Comment From Guest
Nick, what do you make of Stephen Strasburg’s huge home-road splits? His road numbers have been ugly for the past two years. Is it time for fake-team owners to think about only starting him at home?

12:59

Nicholas Minnix: Sure, if it’s been that way for so long, might as well test it a bit. I don’t make anything of them, just might speculate for reasons why. Interesting point, I’ll keep it in mind. Perhaps they baby him on the road or something. Hard to say.

12:59
Comment From KilleBrews
What can we expect from SS Chris Taylor ROS?

1:00

Nicholas Minnix: Expect … well, think his ROS projections times two certainly doable. http://www.fangraphs.com/st… Capable of a much better OBP, I’d take the over as a gambling man, but it’s not a safe bet.

1:00
Comment From Kris
Congratulations on turning the podcast around and giving it some pace. That shit used to be the slowest thing on the fucking planet. It was like listening to paint dry. Not even watching, LISTENING. #KeepNotGraphs

1:00

Nicholas Minnix: LOL, thanks. I hope to continue to make it better, as we all do. I’m sure it’s a learning process for everyone. We appreciate all the great feedback!

1:01
Comment From Zach
Right rank: Kennedy, Hammel, Lincecum, Minor, Stroman (would be higher except for possible innings limit), McCarthy (should he be higher with use of cutter?)?

1:02

Nicholas Minnix: Dammit, so that’s what he’s doing. Dammit! I love McCarthy. I like him. Health now a greater concern, on par with Hammel in that dept. but like him more (McCarthy).

1:03

Nicholas Minnix: I’ll say Kennedy, McCarthy, Stroman, Lincecum, Hammel, Minor. IDK what the hell is wrong with Minor. I’m being overly bold with McCarthy here, FYI.

1:03
Comment From Cool Joe Smoove
Sup Nick?…

1:03

Nicholas Minnix: Yo!

1:04
Comment From Reginald Denton III
Will Stroman’s innings get limited as we get into September? What about deGrom?

1:04

Nicholas Minnix: He’s a little at risk, but not by much, I’d say. I’d guess mid-Sept. shutdown or something like that, maybe a 6-man rotation lengthens him. I think maybe all teams should start considering 6-mans…. Maybe, I might wanna research that.

1:05

Nicholas Minnix: And thanks to Zach for the tip on McCarthy! Must look into it.

1:05
Comment From Big Joe Mufferaw
Do you believe in “Clutch”? Do you think it is an acutal skill?

1:06

Nicholas Minnix: I think it’s a mental/psychological skill, in essence, yes. In terms of performance, that’s the only thing I see as truly different for those who are clutch. The mind is the most powerful tool. It can work against us. I hope that answers your question to satisfaction.

1:07

Nicholas Minnix: The brain is the most powerful tool, I mean to say. The mind, to the Zen warrior, is clutter.

1:07

Nicholas Minnix: 😀

1:07
Comment From Bobo
Is Billy Butler droppable now in 14 teamers? Just got 1b eligibility but Yost came out and said he expects him to lose some at bats at DH to Danny Valencia.

1:07

Nicholas Minnix: Yes, I think so.

1:07
Comment From Vslyke
Why doesn’t fWAR account for higher leverage of pinch hitting like it does for relievers?

1:09
Comment From Bobo
Is Billy Butler droppable now in 14 teamers? Just got 1b eligibility but Yost came out and said he expects him to lose some at bats at DH to Danny Valencia.

1:09

Nicholas Minnix: I do not know, honestly. I imagine it has something to do with the fact that a pinch hitter’s situation is no different from any other situation for a regular.

1:09

Nicholas Minnix: I don’t know why that question was repeated (the Butler one).

1:09
Comment From Reginald Denton III
Does Cashner come back and have a strong end of the season the way he did last season?

1:10

Nicholas Minnix: I have my doubts. SD has no reason to push him. Might make a few more starts, and they should be solid, but hard to predict them being as good as last year’s.

1:10
Comment From kevinthecomic
Yordano has had spotty results lately, and few to no strikeouts. What kind of play is he vs. Cleveland tonight?

1:11

Nicholas Minnix: I’d be wary. In the right circumstances, I’d bench him.

1:11
Comment From Dork Stork
Would you give any thought to keeping $1 David Murphy in 15-team mixed?

1:11

Nicholas Minnix: Nothing wrong with it, if it doesn’t preclude me from getting other players. Depends on what’s available next year.

1:11
Comment From Reginald Denton III
Will Paxton be useful when he comes back?

1:12

Nicholas Minnix: Mixed leagues? MAYBE, 15-team? If he’s traded, depends to where? A lot to factor in that is unknown.

1:14

Nicholas Minnix: OK, folks, I have to shut it down today. I apologize if I didn’t get to your question. Last week, I went much longer than I expected and really could. Look forward to hopping back on next week. If I missed you today, hop in early next week and I hope I get to you! I made it through to some questions at the 12:24 mark. Again, hope you all enjoyed it. Have a great weekend, enjoy the trade deadline, chat soon!

1:14
Comment From Helber
Do you have a summary of formulas to calculate things like FIP-, wOBA, etc? I really need one

1:15

Nicholas Minnix: FYI, check the glossary on the site, many of the defs there offer links to calculate those stats for which they don’t provide the formulas. If you don’t find it there, Google it, someone will have it. Many of them have multiple ways to be calculated, depending on the source.

1:15

Nicholas Minnix: Thanks all! Good day.





Nicholas Minnix oversaw baseball content for six years at KFFL, where he held the loose title of Managing Editor for seven and a half before he joined FanGraphs. He played in both Tout Wars and LABR from 2010 through 2014. Follow him on Twitter @NicholasMinnix.

3 Comments
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that guy
8 years ago

Do you skip any questions? Maybe it’d improve the chat to skip things where the answer is “this isn’t my forte” or “it depends, you haven’t given me enough info”?

Steve Z
8 years ago
Reply to  that guy

Yup, you are “that guy”