Nicholas Minnix Baseball Chat – 9/12/14

Nicholas Minnix: Hello, everyone! I’ll be with you at the top of the hour!

Comment From Guest
Hey Nick, Im in need of a Slg boost in 4×4, im looking at Pearce, Vogt, Rasmus or Stubbs? Unless you have any better suggestions. Thanks

Nicholas Minnix: SLG boost, gotta be Pearce, I think. Vogt may not play again reg season, also.

Comment From Hamilton Porter
Over/under: 3.5 MLB homers for Sano next season

Nicholas Minnix: I’ll take the under.

Comment From Brad
Hi Nick: Hh pts league weekly lineups. Next week for ss? Peralta 6 games, Aybar 7 games, Xander 6 games or Rutledge 7 games at coors. Thanks.

Nicholas Minnix: Reflex is Rutledge, who naturally hits better at Coors.

Comment From Hamilton Porter
Does Taveras chase and make less bad contact next season?

Nicholas Minnix: I think so. It’s part of his profile, and he’s already begun to make adjustments. It’s disappointing that he didn’t take the league by storm, but not everyone does. To do so isn’t obviously a necessity or a predictor to avoid being a bust.

Comment From Bob Ghanoush
I have to keep 4 out of these 6 in a 5×5 dynasty (all at the same price, can be kept pretty cheap forever): Heaney, J. Nelson, Duffy, T. Walker, Salazar, Meyer. Looking to truly be competitive in 2016. Which two should I drop?

Nicholas Minnix: Duffy and … Heaney, I think.

Comment From Guest
Hey Nick, Im down by 8 in Ottoneu 4×4 and quickly climbing think i can catch 1st for the win?

Nicholas Minnix: If you’re quickly climbing, then why not? The question is, what are the spreads in the categories where you can still make up ground? I can’t see your standings, so you’ll have to answer that!

Comment From Pirates Hurdles
So, Crush Davis’s season ends with him hitting .196 with 0.4 WAR. That’s good for a 6.4 win drop from 2013, just curious about how odd such a big swing is historically when injury was not eh primary factor?

Nicholas Minnix: That’s a good question. I’m sure it’s not unprecedented. Have to be worse swings, historically.

Comment From Guest
Who wins NL MVP with Stanton out RoS with a broken face?

Nicholas Minnix: Kershaw’s case became better. Lucroy and McCutchen are the competition, and I have a feeling Lucroy will be a little overlooked. I’ll say McCutchen.

Comment From Guest
If a player takes adderall why wouldnt they stay on top of their exemption?

Nicholas Minnix: THAT is an excellent question. It’s the question I haven’t seen asked yet. I’ve seen some harsh criticism of Davis, and it might be deserved, but I’d want to know some info we probably won’t ever know to be so judgmental.

Nicholas Minnix: Still, it seems pretty not smart.

Comment From neal
where the hell did T.J. House come from

Nicholas Minnix: From one of my waiver wire columns a couple of months ago! He has a decent fb-change combo, I think. But he’s outdoing himself, surely.

Comment From Jolly Roger
Hi Nick, out of contention in a dynasty league, so I stocked up on prospects. Please rank: D.J. Peterson, Maikel Franco, David Dahl, Jesse Winker, Dalton Pompey. Any potential fantasy stars in 1-2 years? Thanks!

Nicholas Minnix: Franco, Peterson, Pompey (just less likely to bust, so a safe one), Winker, Dahl. An amateur rank, to be sure.

Comment From Ronnie
I’ve read reports of Mark Trumbo claiming he’s past his foot injury and feeling. Can I expect any sizable contribution from him in the championship week in my league next week? Or should I just cut bait and look for power elsewhere?

Nicholas Minnix: I wouldn’t expect it. It depends on what’s available. I’d definitely look, though.

Comment From Ron Swanson
Chris Davis got high and gets the boot for ROS…

Nicholas Minnix: 😀

Comment From Ron Swanson
Thanks! Your comment is awaiting moderation.

Nicholas Minnix: Hahaha.

Comment From Shawn
You rolling with Alex Wood in Texas tonight?

Nicholas Minnix: Yep, without even looking, yep.

Comment From Mickey Minoso
Minnix sounds like if Minnie Minoso started making dubstep music. That’s a compliment, btw. He played in the majors in 5 different decades, and now he’s making dubstep music!

Nicholas Minnix: ! Thank you!

Comment From Bart
Nick, please drop one, J Nelson, Wada, Rubby de La Rosa or Alfredo Simon for my ROS playoff run.

Nicholas Minnix: I dropped De La Rosa in Tout a week or two ago. Surprised the BoSox haven’t shut him down yet or talked about it. Nelson is in the bullpen, though, so he’d be my pick.

Comment From Jim
Do you think the Twins would be better served by having a new GM and/or manager in regards to their quest to get back to contention?

Nicholas Minnix: Manager, probably. Never cared for Gardenhire. GM, maybe, some Twins’ moves are head scratchers, but Ryan has at least shown some signs of adjusting to mistakes made. Seems like it’s too slow a process in Minnesota, though, so overall, probably.

Comment From Joe
I’ll be short and simple. Hernandez, Sale or Kluber for the AL Cy Young? Note that after yesterday, Kluber has opened up a slight gap in fWAR, and Sale has essentially drawn even with Hernandez.

Nicholas Minnix: Well I agree that it’s neck and neck, but familiarity and the postseason factor will play in, I’m sure, so King Felix will hold an advantage.

Comment From Ray
Hi Nick…who would you take as the best R/SB producer the final few weeks: Austin Jackson, Jarrod Dyson, or Anthony Gose? Also, again look at R/SB, would you rather have Zobrist or Jose Ramirez the rest of the way? Thanks!

Nicholas Minnix: Reflex has to be Austin Jackson, who plays every day. Disappointing year, but I’d want to ride him.

Comment From TJ House
I came from the stork

Nicholas Minnix: :D!

Comment From Snarfle
Do we have info on how many focus drug exemptions there are in MLB? That’s a PED thing that get’s ignored because there’s no great answer for it, because some people truly need it (ditto education).

Nicholas Minnix: I don’t have it. Saw Eno tweet this link earlier today, I’ve bookmarked it to read: http://www.businessweek.com…

Nicholas Minnix: It’s six months old, and perhaps opinion, but should be interesting read.

Comment From MAtt
The player shouldn’t stay on worrying about an exemption. The agent should. Players have a lot going on and pay agents a lot of money to take care this stuff.

Nicholas Minnix: Both are at fault to some degree, I’m sure, but Davis probably doesn’t get all the blame.

Comment From Mike Rizzo
Why is it that the best player on the best team in the National League is consistently left out of the MVP discussion? Lucroy is a catcher on a team tanking out of the playoffs, Kershaw is a pitcher, and McCutchen is only .3 WAR ahead of Rendon, a gap most sabermetricians would allow is statistically insignificant. What does Rendon have to do to get into this conversation?!

Nicholas Minnix: A good point. Can’t say I wouldn’t vote for him in some place. Another in the not well-known boat, a player whose D is very important and will probably remain overlooked, at least in 2014.

Comment From Alex
Nats Rookie Manager says Soriano is ready to start pitching in games again after fixing some mechanics, but Storen has been lights out since claiming the closer role for 3 games. Who do you think will get the opportunities from tonight’s game on?

Nicholas Minnix: “in games” isn’t yet “in SV situation.” Storen now that he’s had a day off, or Clippard if not.

Comment From Brad
ss follow-up quest. If I pick up rutledge, that gives me 3 rockies? How do you feel about starting 3 players on one team, albeit in coors, during semi-final rd? Thanks again.

Nicholas Minnix: I don’t care about that. I’d ask myself about each individual player, only.

Comment From Mkb
Thoughts on Matt Clark? It’s not like Overbay/Reynolds are setting the world on fire.

Nicholas Minnix: You’re correct. And the Brewers need production now. Thought is that PT is definitely possibility ROS, but lack of pedigree and swing and miss makes him a dicey bet.

Comment From MAtt
If you were going to vote for Stanton, does missing 15 games REALLY change that?

Nicholas Minnix: Probably, can’t know until season is finished.

Comment From InjuryProne
I’m on bye this week and have lost Wright and Pedroia (acquired cheaply on deadline deal), Stanton, possibly Marte, possibly Rizzo, possibly Holland. Should I be panicking right now?

Nicholas Minnix: Um, yes. But you should be looking for what’s available, JIC!

Comment From Dave B
Think Stanton thought it was a curve ball? Why didn’t he bail?

Nicholas Minnix: If I had the answer, then I’d get in my Delorean, go 88 mph, and send him a text!

Comment From Hamilton Porter
Do you take the Sano under bc he won’t come up until September, or are there not enough tricks in the bag to see him before 2016?

Nicholas Minnix: Likelier to be the former. He missed an entire season because of a serious surgical procedure and hasn’t played much above High-A ball. It’s surely possible that he’s up before the break or something, but I wouldn’t consider the likeliest outcome.

Comment From Rated Rookie
Would you agree that with Xander Bogaerts the conversation about him has rightly returned to “how good can he be” rather than ” DEMOTE HIM TO TRIPLE-A”?

Comment From Rated Rookie
Why so low on the estimated number of Sano HRs? You think he won’t be up until September?

Nicholas Minnix: As mentioned, just a lot working against him, 2015-wise.

Comment From PieTraynee
Does Starling Marte have an MVP caliber season in him at any point?

Nicholas Minnix: I think that’s possible, sure. I wouldn’t call it likely, but possible.

Comment From Matt Damon
MATT. DAMON.

Nicholas Minnix: You know, some people aren’t fans of Matt. Damon.!

Nicholas Minnix: I like him, though, most of the time.

Comment From Big Ben
In 10 team H2H points league … championship game next week … just lost Stanton. 🙁 What’s your feeling about whether Rizzo will be playing next week?

Nicholas Minnix: I think he’ll return. I’d ready a contingency plan, but I think he’ll be back.

Comment From Donnie
You brave enough to start Ryu at SF tonight? They’ve been red hot recently, and have owned lefties all season.

Nicholas Minnix: He regularly goes for you, undoubtedly. I don’t sit those guys, no matter the opponent. Yes, do it.

Comment From Phil
Haven’t been able to listen to Sleeper & the Bust yet…how many games do you think Rizzo plays next week?

Nicholas Minnix: Goodness. … I’ll say, over/under 4.5 (they have 7), I’ll take over. Hesitant, but seems likelier than not. We can’t know. Just prepare.

Comment From Seattle Slough
Odds that Davis’s missing TUE excuse has the same factual basis as Goodell’s I didn’t see it explanation? Davis got busted twice.

Nicholas Minnix: I really couldn’t answer that confidently. Possible it’s untruthful, sure, consider the culture. But just doesn’t interest me to conjecture about stuff like that.

Comment From bill
Chris Davvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvis

Nicholas Minnix: True. True. …

Comment From Brad
Thanks Nick for the advice. I appreciate it.

Nicholas Minnix: You bet!

Comment From Joe
You’re probably right re: King Felix, but if Sale finishes with an ERA with a “1” in front of it and Hernandez doesn’t, that may catch some BBWAA eyes.

Nicholas Minnix: THAT is true, and given the ballpark differences, it’d have to stand out.

Comment From Snarfle
So you have the Delorean and Stanton’s number, but you don’t know how to tell him to avoid the pitch? Let’s team up! You be the time-traveler, I’ll fill in the more obvious gaps in the plan.

Nicholas Minnix: LOL, deal!

Comment From Matt
who you like better for ROS, Doolittle or Storen? AL versus NL,health?

Nicholas Minnix: Phew. Storen, right now, because he’s healthy and is doing it. It’s a coin flip. Doolittle health factor … like to think he’s not rushed back, is the better choice if that’s the case (he’s not).

Comment From Rated Rookie
Who are some of the guys you are planning to keep for 2015 in whatever format and however many fantasy teams you manage? Any guys that show up on several of your teams?

Nicholas Minnix: I don’t have any keeper teams right now, unfortunately. I have only 2 total, long story. 🙁

Nicholas Minnix: But keeper leagues are so different, my answers wouldn’t be of great use, per se.

Comment From Guest
in what instance do you not like Matt Damon?

Nicholas Minnix: When he’s angry. 🙁

Nicholas Minnix: I like him in “Stuck on You,” always. 😀

Comment From Pennsy
You have Stanton’s cell number? Jealous.

Nicholas Minnix: I do not, really, just in case you’re serious.

Comment From Mb
In a keeper league [points] would you keep Bundy over Porcello or Carrasco. Is he still projected as an ace?

Nicholas Minnix: I really like Bundy. There’s something to be said for development to the stages of Porcello’s, Carrasco’s, though. Depends on depth of the league. I’d consider trading one of the more experienced pitchers, though.

Nicholas Minnix: Consider = I would try.

Comment From Guest
estimate the career WAR for Starling Marte, McCutchen, and Polanco. thanks!

Nicholas Minnix: Geez, so open … I’ll say McCutchen ~60, the other two ~30.

Nicholas Minnix: That’s not my forte, either.

Comment From Rated Rookie
Give me your three best adjectives to describe how good Carlos Correa is going to be.

Nicholas Minnix: Good, better and best.

Nicholas Minnix: He’ll be very good, I expect.

Comment From David
Rizzo, Pedroia, Castro, Wright, Melky, Gomez, Stanton … my only true starting hitter still standing is Ortiz. Hold me 🙁

Nicholas Minnix: Oh, baby. … There there.

Comment From Drew
Gardner or Pagan rest of season? Thanks!

Nicholas Minnix: Let’s see, an injured right now guy vs. a guy who often is. I’ll take a stab with Gardner.

Comment From Bart
What do you think of Jimmy Nelson as a keeper and potential starter next season compared to Rubby de La Rosa? I’m weighing in on whether to drop either one for Alfredo Simon. I reworded the question that you answered before since I am in the playoffs as well.

Nicholas Minnix: I like De La Rosa’s stuff more as a keeper and long term. Better pitch mix. NL helps Nelson’s outlook, though. Still, I’d take DLR.

Nicholas Minnix: For Simon … I’d want more assurances, I think. You can probably wait to make that decision on a streaming basis. Unless weekly lineups, but every day’s worth of info may reveal something more. I’d wait to see if a better option comes along.

Nicholas Minnix: Just because Simon is largely gassed, it seems. But probably through most of the fatigue now, just showing true talent.

Comment From NOT BASEBALL!
Romo or Jake Locker

Nicholas Minnix: Hahaha, well, I wouldn’t start Locker over Romo almost ever.

Comment From Rated Rookie
Just curious. Early in the season Eno posted a table of the guys he has on various teams. It’s interesting to see someone else’s preferences and edifying to see what guys the experts think have surplus future value.

Nicholas Minnix: This is true. I think it has value, I think more than people realize. You’re right, and I think I may have been too dismissive of the question. Most people seem to have no interest in what specific teams of others can say to them. But you asked the question, so obviously you saw some value to it.

Nicholas Minnix: I don’t have any keepers to share, still, unfortunately. 🙁

Nicholas Minnix: Maybe next offseason.

Comment From Guest
Matt Damon wants people to send their kids to public school, but he sends his kids to private school. (i.e. He is a hypocrite with questionable political views.) However, he was awesome in the Bourne movies!

Nicholas Minnix: Yeah, kind of agree. I don’t know the man personally, would rather have the conversation before saying so. But he has a good reason, among his reasons, surely.

Comment From Guest
You can get Stanton at 888-BIG-STIK

Nicholas Minnix: Put it in your phones!

Comment From Rated Rookie
At least, it’s more edifying to me than asking if you would hypothetically keep both Rodon and Giolito, which I plan to do in every league I’m in.

Nicholas Minnix: LOL – true!

Comment From Rated Rookie
I’m sorry you’re not in any keeper leagues.

Nicholas Minnix: LOL, thank you, so much, for sharing my sorrow!

Nicholas Minnix: Yeah, but no need for any more Matt. Damon. stuff. Let’s move on.

Comment From Ron Swanson

Nicholas Minnix: Oops.

Comment From Snarfle
Just read that adderrall in baseball article. Basic message: we’re not actually good at measuring ADHD in adults, so the actual numbers may be higher than reported. Baseball, with the crowd, the game, the madness, is a tough environment for someone who has trouble focusing. So maybe some are abusing the system, but the 10% figure of players with exemptions isn’t crazy.

Nicholas Minnix: Cool, thanks for the sum. Interested to check it out.

Comment From Ron Swanson
Thanks! Your comment is awaiting moderation.

Comment From Pirates Hurdles
RE: Stanton, Cutch has outperfomed him in wRC+, wOBA, and Offense runs. I’m not sure why people think Stanton was the leader on a non-contender? Now Cutch has a chance to makeup the playing time gap.

Comment From dogbone
When do you think the kbo/npb will adapt and use advanced metrics? Will we ever see such things as pitch FX from those leagues?

Nicholas Minnix: I’m sure eventually. When, I couldn’t begin to guess. I don’t know anything about the structure of those leagues. I’d guess that NPB, which has a bigger following outside the country (I’m guessing), and probably in it, is first.

Comment From dogbone
Who plays in RF for Pittsburgh for the rest of the season? A platoon?

Nicholas Minnix: There’s no clear winner. Snider was the guy until he was hurt, he’s probably still the safer bet to do so ROS.

Comment From Dave
More of a statement than a question, when a players MVP case is mostly built on the case of his defense, it’s not really an MVP case (Gomez in 2013, Rendon in 2014)

Nicholas Minnix: Perhaps in your eyes, almost certainly in the writers’. What is the correct mix? Is there one? How reliable is the info to base it on, anyway? Wish we knew?

Comment From Brad
yes, I am interested in how guys at rg and fg do in their leagues.

Nicholas Minnix: Sweet. I’ve thought about resurrecting a column I did at KFFL for a couple of months in which I gave the rationale behind all my bids for the week in a few of my leagues, the most competitive of them.

Comment From Brad
Nick, I bet you get 100 invitations now from your readers to join their keeper leagues.

Nicholas Minnix: Fingers crossed.

Comment From Jon
Looking at the O’s now, they are sporting the kind of run differential a sabremetrician would say is more indicative of a successful team. Has there ever been any thought into whether run differential is just a lagging indicator and not a predictor of future success?

Nicholas Minnix: I’m sure there has. Tried to do a quick search. I don’t know the research on it.

Comment From Steve
Any chance Brandon Morrow is a useful starter next year?

Nicholas Minnix: Sure, there’s always a chance. It has to be low as anything. I think he’s a good bet to close, though.

Comment From Guest
Rizzo isn’t coming back.

Nicholas Minnix: 🙁 Cynic. I disagree.

Comment From Guest
Tank nation in full effect.

Comment From Sandy
When is a good time to get an Ottoneu team? I’m ready to take the plunge and buy a team, but all the abandoned teams seem to be in leagues that are falling apart.

Nicholas Minnix: That’s a good question, I do not know, but I’ve published it so that others may be other to help. I’ve only been a partner on one ottoneu team.

Comment From Brad
Nick you appear to have a good moral compass and are non-judgmental. Quest. What do you feel about out of contention teams in roto leagues benching or starting certain players to help a friend or to hurt a jerk owner?

Nicholas Minnix: I appreciate that. And I think that’s pretty fouled up.

Nicholas Minnix: IMO, you play it out the way you would have in any other circumstance. If a prize is on the line, then it way matters. If not, then, I’d tell the manipulative team(s) that if a league with no prize matters to them that much, they can have it.

Comment From Bob
The Jays have been one of the streakiest teams I ever remember this year. Does this mean they have a chance?

Nicholas Minnix: Always a chance! FG standings say 7.0%. That seems high to me, haha. But yeah, if the pitching holds up. …

Comment From James
How should KC juggle Hosmer-Butler-Willingham down the stretch?

Nicholas Minnix: I think Butler has shown us enough that he should start to lose PT.

Nicholas Minnix: And he has. So it’s fair.

Comment From Puig Destroyer
Start Stroman at home vs the Rays sunday?

Nicholas Minnix: Sure, why not?

Nicholas Minnix: I mean, there are reasons, but another type of pitcher I don’t try to pick apart matchups too much.

Comment From Jon
Rendon can hit.

Nicholas Minnix: Definitely can.

Comment From Brad
Brad Johnson does articles on his trades in ottoneau that are interesting and I don’t do ottoneau.

Nicholas Minnix: That’s right. You’re convincing me.

Comment From Guest
J-roll done for ros?

Nicholas Minnix: I wouldn’t say so just yet, but there’s obviously no incentive for him to return to the lineup. Tangible anyway.

Comment From Shop Smart Shop S-Marte
Can we get a too early 2015 list rankings for keepers please. Pretty please. Pretty please with Adderall on top.

Nicholas Minnix: Since you put Adderrall on top. … Like, here? Here, though, a straight list really isn’t rules-specific, that can be misleading, too.

Comment From Rated Rookie
Thanks for the great chat.

Nicholas Minnix: Thank you!

Comment From Rated Rookie
You seem a bit…less enthusiastic today.

Nicholas Minnix: I am a bit subdued, I suppose. Thanks for noticing. Quite sensitive of you. But I’m good to go.

Comment From Guest
Green light to starting Carrasco (DET) and Paxton (OAK) today?

Nicholas Minnix: Definitely Paxton, go for it. Carrasco I’m hesitant, he’s due for a clunker here, one that tests his supposedly newfound mettle. This could be the one. The standings or h2h matchup would affect my choice.

Comment From Guest
Best option to (partially) replace Stanton’s HR and RBIs in a shallow 5X5 league? Options include Pearce, Dunn, Tex, Kendry Morales, Avisail Garcia, Viciedo, etc. Can afford to take a hit at BA and can be any position. Thanks.

Nicholas Minnix: I gotta like Tex there.

Comment From Evan
Is Jeff Samardzja a dude?

Nicholas Minnix: As opposed to a chick? Can’t confirm it, but I think so.

Comment From Guest
Im pretty excited for arbitration in ottoneu its my 1st yr.

Nicholas Minnix: You should be. That’s a fun process, IMO.

Comment From Pablo
Is the shift to blame for Chris Davis’ BABIP? Contact rates and batted ball stats aren’t too different from prior 2 years.

Nicholas Minnix: I don’t think entirely. There’s a lot of potential fluctuation in AVG for a guy like Davis. It’s surely a factor.

Comment From Guest
14 team H2H league (AVE/HR/R/RBI/SB)..can keep 5 forever..Posey, Kipnis, Castro, Upton, Baez, Bautista, Myers

Nicholas Minnix: Not Baez. … Trade Starlin, if I can, then could reconsider that. Not Myers, perhaps, because I could reacquire him in draft/auction for discount. Just guess, your league settings may affect.

Comment From James
So what’s the defensive impact of Davis’ suspension? I guess Pearce to 1B permanently and OF depth gets thinned out a little? Anything I’m missing?

Nicholas Minnix: Seems like right track, to me. Jimmy Paredes was playing a little 3B while Pearce was injured. Maybe back to that. Flaherty at 3B perhaps as well. It’s not pretty. I used to like Paredes, a little, though.

Comment From Nate
Where does Puig go in drafts next year after his awful 2nd half?

Nicholas Minnix: 15-team mixed league, still the second round. People love talent. MAYBE third.

Comment From Monty
Over/under on A-Rod having 2 WAR in 2015?

Nicholas Minnix: Under. C’mon, that’s such a safe bet! I’m not ruling out over, mind you.

Comment From Guest
Re: Sandy buying in Ottoneu. I took over a team in a seemingly falling apart league, and there are still some less-than-competitive teams, but by the start of the season, all the teams were claimed and generally participated. Maybe get a friend to take over another abandoned one in that league with you?

Nicholas Minnix: Thanks for the help! Hope Sandy is watching!

Nicholas Minnix: Thanks everybody, good chat. Enjoyed it. Have a great weekend!