NLCS Preview: Dodgers and Brewers Set for a Clash of Styles

The matchup for the National League Championship Series is set, and it will feature the team with the best record in baseball and the team everyone thought would have the best record in baseball. The battle between the Milwaukee Brewers and the Los Angeles Dodgers will be a clash of styles. It’s big market versus small market. Superstars versus Average Joes. But make no mistake, even though Los Angeles has the name recognition (and all the money and resources in the world), Milwaukee’s scrappy roster is one of the most talented in baseball; the Brew Crew’s 6-0 record against the Dodgers during the regular season is evidence of that.

The Brewers’ win over the Chicago Cubs in the NLDS was their first postseason series victory since 2018, when they reached the NLCS only to lose to the Dodgers in seven games. This is their fourth appearance in the Championship Series, and they’re playing for a chance to advance to the World Series for just the second time in franchise history. As for the Dodgers, they’re the defending champions; this will be their eighth NLCS appearance in the last 13 years, making this well-trod ground for them.

The Brewers and Dodgers took very different paths to their success this season, and both have some key questions to answer in the NLCS. Here are the storylines to watch for.

Will the Brewers have enough pitching?

Want another example of these two ballclubs’ contrasting styles? Look no further than their respective pitching staffs. Due to a number of spring injuries, the Brewers started the season with a patchwork starting rotation, but that group quickly stabilized thanks to the emergence of Quinn Priester and Chad Patrick, the return of Brandon Woodruff, and the debut of Jacob Misiorowski. Injuries struck again towards the end of the regular season; Woodruff was sidelined with a lat strain in September and veteran Jose Quintana returned from a calf strain just in time for the NLDS. With Quintana limited and Woodruff left off the roster, Milwaukee entered the postseason with a lot fewer options to fill out their rotation. Freddy Peralta was effectively the only pitcher who made a traditional start during the NLDS; he took two turns against the Cubs, allowing five runs in 9 2/3 innings while striking out 15. Priester was lined up to make a traditional start in Game 3, but he allowed four runs in the first inning and was pulled after recording just two outs.

Like the Tigers last year, the Brewers have embraced a strategy of pitching chaos due to a lack of starting options. They used 10 different relievers during the last round, with Misiorowski and Quintana providing bulk innings in the games Peralta didn’t start. Aaron Ashby and Trevor Megill were utilized as openers in front of Misiorowski, and Brewers manager Pat Murphy dug deep into his bullpen to line up the right matchups in critical situations. Combined, the Brewers relief corps threw 30 innings against the Cubs, the most of any team in that round, and put up a 1.20 ERA, the lowest of the eight teams in the Division Series:

In the best-of-seven NLCS, that strategy will be stretched to its limit. The off day between Games 1 and 2 in the NLDS allowed the Brewers to be aggressive with their bullpen usage, but they won’t have that same luxury against the Dodgers. The most immediate question is who will start Game 1. Peralta last pitched on Thursday, which means he’d be lined up to start Game 2 on normal rest. Both Priester and Quintana would be on four days rest after appearing in Game 3 last Wednesday, which means one of those two will likely take the mound to start the series against the Dodgers. The other option would be to run with a full bullpen game in Game 1 and hope that Peralta can provide length in Game 2 before the travel day affords some rest ahead of the three-game set in Los Angeles. Misiorowski should be rested enough to make a bulk relief appearance in Game 3, which would also set him up to be used in a potential Game 7 if it comes to that.

For the Dodgers, the rotation plan is a lot more straightforward. They’ve got four phenomenal starters in Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, and Shohei Ohtani, and they leaned on them heavily during the NLDS. Those four guys threw a combined 22 innings against the Phillies while posting a 2.45 ERA and a 2.54 FIP. Los Angeles will go with Snell to start Game 1 and Yamamoto in Game 2, which would give him his regular five days of rest before a potential start in Game 6.

Ohtani throws a little wrinkle in things for Games 3 and 4, as well as for a potential Game 7. As of Sunday night, according to Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic, the Dodgers had committed to pitching Ohtani “at some point” in the NLCS, though they had not yet announced whether he’d get the ball in Game 3 or Game 4 back in Los Angeles. During the first two rounds, the Dodgers scheduled Ohtani’s starts for games before an off day, so he would have a day to recover before DHing. Manager Dave Roberts said the team isn’t going to be doing that for the NLCS, and that Ohtani would be in the lineup as the DH the game after he pitches, no matter what. All but two of Ohtani’s 15 starts this season, including Game 1 of the NLDS against the Phillies, have come on six or more days of rest, and none since the end of June, when he was only throwing one or two innings while coming back from elbow reconstruction surgery. The starter for Game 7 becomes a little murkier if Ohtani pitches in Game 3; typically, that would line him up to start the final game, but he’d be pitching on just four days of rest, something he hasn’t done this year. Game 7 would be an all-hands-on-deck situation anyway, so it’s possible Ohtani and Glasnow could combine to cover most of the innings in that winner-take-all game. If that’s the plan, then it would make more sense to have Ohtani start Game 3 because it would give him an extra day to recover than if he were to start Game 4 and still be needed for Game 7.

Can the Dodgers’ bullpen contain the Brewers’ offense?

Beyond the starting unit’s quality, the big reason the Dodgers relied so heavily on their rotation during the first two rounds of the playoffs is because their bullpen has really struggled over the last month. In September, Dodgers relievers posted a 4.90 ERA, and that has jumped to a 5.75 ERA in October. Roberts has trusted just four relievers in high-leverage situations during the previous two rounds of the playoffs:

Of those four pitchers, just one has avoided allowing a run so far in October: Roki Sasaki. After a rough start to his MLB career, including a 4.72 ERA as a starter followed by a shoulder injury that sidelined him for four months, Sasaki has been a revelation in relief. His fastball has looked sharp, averaging nearly 100 mph, and he’s simplified his approach by featuring his unhittable splitter nearly half the time while ditching his slider completely. Tanner Scott was removed from the NLDS roster due to injury, so Los Angeles won’t have him as a late-inning option in this series either. Alex Vesia, Blake Treinen, and Emmet Sheehan will once again be called on to form a bridge from the Dodgers’ starters to Sasaki, which is where things could get fraught.

The Brewers’ offense excels at putting pressure on the opposing defense. They had the fifth-lowest strikeout rate in baseball this year, and they were one of the most aggressive teams on the basepaths during the regular season. They put the ball in play, force their opponents to play flawless defense, and are quick to take advantage of any mistakes in the field. During the regular season, they put up a 107 wRC+, their best mark of this window of contention that opened back in 2018. Their .145 ISO ranked just 25th overall, but it jumped up to .159 during the second half of the season, and it’s up to .175 in the postseason. They also have a knack for clutch hitting: 14 of the 22 runs they scored against the Cubs came with two outs, and they had 10 two-out, two-strike hits, including four home runs, in the NLDS.

The Dodgers aren’t an especially strong defensive team, breaking even with 0 FRV, 17th in baseball. Of particular interest this October is Will Smith. Normally able to put a damper on opposing teams’ run game, the hairline fracture in Smith’s right hand clearly affected his ability to throw in the NLDS; the Phillies stole four bases while he was behind the plate. The lingering effects of that injury were enough to keep him out of the starting lineup during the first two games against the Phillies, and if his hand is still bothering him, I’d expect the Brewers to try and put the game in motion as soon as they get runners on base.

The other factor that the Brewers use to their advantage is a deep bench that’s filled with players who can turn a late-inning at-bat into a favorable matchup. But while there will be some chess moves to make with the bottom half of the lineup, they’re confident in the production from Christian Yelich, Jackson Chourio, Brice Turang, and William Contreras at the top; that quartet combined for 21 hits, four home runs, and 11 RBI during the NLDS. That said, the other eight players who had a plate appearance during that series collected 19 hits, three home runs, and 10 RBI. One thing to monitor is the state of Chourio’s right hamstring; during Game 1 of the NLDS, he re-aggravated an injury that kept him on the IL for all of August. It wasn’t a serious enough to keep him out of the lineup in any other game during the series, but his ability to run full speed was clearly compromised.

Will Shohei Ohtani break out of his slump?

For the Dodgers, the biggest concern for their offense is the sudden silence of Shohei Ohtani’s bat. The superstar had three hits and two home runs in the Wild Card Series against the Cincinnati Reds, but the Phillies’ cavalcade of left-handed pitchers held him to just a single hit in 20 plate appearances while striking him out nine times in the NLDS. Ohtani won’t have to worry about as many left-handed pitchers while facing the Brewers, though I’m sure he’ll see plenty of Ashby and Jared Koenig in high-leverage situations.

Mookie Betts, Teoscar Hernández, and Tommy Edman picked up the slack for the Dodgers against Philadelphia, combining for four hits apiece, two home runs, and six RBI; postseason hero Enrique Hernández chipped in with three hits and three RBI of his own. Including their series win over the Reds, the team has a 108 wRC+ in the postseason so far, with 31 runs in six games.

Even with one of their best bats mired in a slump, the Dodgers’ lineup has so many other incredible hitters that they can still pound an opposing team without skipping a beat. They had the second best wRC+ in baseball during the regular season, with a lineup that features a trio of former MVPs and a strong supporting cast. Although Freddie Freeman and Max Muncy didn’t slump as hard as Ohtani against the Phillies, I’m sure they will be glad to see fewer left-handed pitchers in this series. And even though Smith might not be 100%, his return lengthened the lineup by pushing Ben Rortvedt to the bench. Ohtani is still a critical piece of the offense — Roberts went so far as to say that the team won’t win the World Series without better production from him — but there are so many other ways the Dodgers can beat you.

The Projection

On paper, it would seem like the Dodgers’ star power and extensive postseason experience would give them the upper hand over the Brewers. Still, the Brew Crew is a lot more than the sum of their parts, which will make this series a fascinating battle between two very different ballclubs.