One Failure After Another
NEW YORK — About 45 minutes after the “best team” that Aaron Boone has ever managed was eliminated from the playoffs, several of its members sat in the clubhouse drinking a few small beers. The mood was wistful, the somber finality of it all floating through the very same air that less than a week earlier had reeked of celebratory champagne.
They had just lost the American League Division Series to the Blue Jays in four games, and for the most part, it wasn’t all that close. Despite an all-time great postseason performance from Aaron Judge following yet another all-time great regular season from him, New York was thoroughly outplayed by Toronto. Boasting the most annoying opposing lineup in baseball, the Jays peppered pitchers with their all-fields approach and their refusal to swing and miss. Theirs was a Boomer’s more-than-platonic ideal of an offense – they had the lowest strikeout rate (17.8%) and the highest batting average (.265) in the majors this season — but it wasn’t a true throwback. The Blue Jays weren’t dependent on the long ball, but they were more than capable of hitting home runs, as we all saw during the ALDS. As a team, Toronto slashed .338/.373/.601 for a 168 wRC+ across the four games. Yankees pitchers struck out 23.7% of the hitters they faced during the regular season but just 14.9% of the Blue Jays who batted in the series.
“They beat us this series,” Boone said. “Simple as that.”
Yet even as the Yankees accepted their fate, that they had played their last baseball game of the season, they were still trying to understand how it all went wrong. Hadn’t they addressed their shortcomings from a year ago, when they lost to the Dodgers in the World Series? They lengthened their lineup, improved their baserunning, and enhanced their rotation during the offseason, and then ahead of the trade deadline, they made more moves designed to shore up their defense and bolster their bullpen. Some of those deals didn’t pan out, but many of them did.
“I feel like we were a complete team up and down the lineup, just a great offensive team, guys that can put the ball in play, hit it out of the park,” Judge said. “Just tough at-bats one through nine. Starting rotation we had going into it, those first three especially, it’s a lethal combo we had up there. I liked our chances. I liked our chances all year. It was a special group.”
He had good reason to believe. This was the most complete Yankees roster since at least his rookie season in 2017, the last year before Boone became manager. These Yankees had the best offense in the majors (119 wRC+); they scored the most runs (849), ran the highest OPS (.787) by 19 points, and accumulated the most WAR from their position players (34.2). Their starting pitchers ranked second in the American League in ERA (3.61), third in FIP (3.92), and fourth in WAR (13.5). They still produced negative value on the bases, but their -4.7 BsR was so much better than last year’s -17.2, which was the worst in the majors by three runs.
Why was that not enough? What were they still missing? And how can they fill in their remaining roster holes to ensure that next year doesn’t end in failure? These are the questions the players fielded in the home clubhouse for over an hour. They couldn’t quite answer them.
“It’s tough to say right now,” Judge said. “Once I review the season, kind of go through it, I might have a better answer for you.”
“That’s the thing. Didn’t feel like anything was missing,” outfielder Cody Bellinger said. “Got beat in a five-game series. They played well, played really well, and continued to put pressure on us. That’s the thing, I don’t feel like it was missing anything.”
“I mean, I’m sure there’ll be a lot of sleepless nights thinking, tracking back and stuff like that,” shortstop Anthony Volpe said. “But I mean, right now I don’t have anything.”
There is nowhere in professional sports where the glory of the past hangs over the present more than Yankee Stadium, mainly because no professional sports franchise has experienced more glory in the past. The ghosts of Monument Park that Judge said kept his game-tying home run fair in Game 3 are also responsible for the enormous expectations placed upon this team every year. “World Series or bust” isn’t a rallying cry — it’s a job requirement. And for the last 16 years, it’s been one failure after another.
To understand why they are currently enduring a stretch that is tied for their longest run of failure in the history of the franchise, the Yankees need to look beyond their Division Series loss. It’s true that the Blue Jays were so locked in at the plate that even if the Yankees had played clean defense, hit with runners in scoring position, and executed some of their pitches better, Toronto probably still would have won. But it’s also true that the series exposed several flaws that the Yankees need to fix this offseason.
Their most glaring weakness moving forward is Volpe. The 24-year-old shortstop took major steps back in his development this season. He’s not progressing at the plate, and his defense has deteriorated. Some of his struggles may have been tied to the partially torn labrum in his left shoulder that he played through for most of the season, but it would be foolish to cite the injury as a reason to ignore all of the evidence in front of us. After three consecutive years of an on-base percentage below .300 and a wRC+ between 83 and 87, the Yankees can no longer expect Volpe to turn into an offensive force. Among the 229 players who’ve made at least 1,000 plate appearances since the start of the 2023 season, Volpe ranks 206th with an 85 wRC+.
Yes, he had a solid postseason last year, and yes, he hit a home run in this year’s Wild Card Series against the Red Sox, but he also recorded just one hit during the Division Series and finished on an 0-for-13 slide with 11 strikeouts. And the thing is, you don’t need numbers to recognize that Volpe has been overmatched more often than not so far during his career. His swing is too long, and it still appears that he has no idea what type of hitter he should be. Now, he hits for enough power and runs the bases well enough that you can tolerate his low OBP and high strikeout rate so long as he is playing strong defense. At the start of the postseason, Esteban Rivera broke down Volpe’s fielding, and explained why the shoulder injury might have been responsible for his defensive decline; it wouldn’t be surprising if Volpe returns to form next season. Yet at the same time, it’s fair to wonder if Volpe’s 2024 season, when he put up 3.5 WAR with a combination of excellent defense and not-as-terrible offense, represents his ceiling.
The Yankees would surely take a 3.5-WAR season from their shortstop moving forward, but there’s no guarantee that Volpe will do that again. And if his actual ability is closer to what we saw from him in 2023 and 2025, rather than what he did last season, the Yankees risk getting near replacement-level production from one of the most important positions on the field.
The problem is, the Yankees don’t have many other options at shortstop. Deadline acquisition José Caballero is a capable shortstop, but the Yankees like him better as a utilityman and pinch-runner. George Lombard Jr., their top prospect who came in at no. 15 on our updated Top 100 list, is a shortstop, but he’s probably still at least another year away from reaching the majors. Bo Bichette is the only pending free agent who’d represent an upgrade over Volpe at the position. They could get creative and try to swing a trade, but because it’s so hard to find a quality shortstop, the teams that have one aren’t likely to give theirs away. Maybe the new Nationals regime would consider trading CJ Abrams, but otherwise, I don’t expect a shortstop to be available in trade. Really, the Yankees had their chance to add a shortstop from outside the organization over the last four offseasons, but they put their faith in Volpe, and now that window has closed. They’ve stuck by him, and now they’re likely stuck with him.
The Yankees’ defense as a whole also regressed this season. Some of that is because they didn’t get the boost from Volpe that they did in 2024. However, they also saw a decline at catcher. Austin Wells still did the bulk of the catching, but the Yankees traded away backup Jose Trevino, an excellent defensive backstop, and covered his innings with Ben Rice and J.C. Escarra.
It wasn’t all bad; the Yankees received negative value at third base over the first four months of the season, but they traded for elite gloveman Ryan McMahon to handle the hot corner. New York also greatly benefited from having Jazz Chisholm Jr. at second base over Gleyber Torres, and from having Aaron Judge back in right field over Juan Soto.
Speaking of Soto, the Yankees don’t have to worry about a player of his caliber departing in free agency this winter, but they do have a handful of key contributors who are set to hit the open market come November, including three of the players they brought in to re-create Soto in the aggregate: Paul Goldschmidt, Devin Williams, and Bellinger, who, according to ESPN’s Jorge Castillo, plans to opt out of the final year of his contract and try to secure a lucrative long-term deal. The Yankees want Bellinger back, and he has said he would like to return. He is coming off his best season since 2019, when he won the NL MVP award, but his 4.9 WAR this year likely represents a new norm rather than a second spike leading to another precipitous regression. As Davy Andrews wrote last month, Bellinger’s 2025 performance was a continuation of his evolution over the last three seasons. He’s not quite a superstar, but he’s a reliable four- to five-win player who plays all three outfield positions in addition to first base.
Bellinger is going to cost a lot of money, probably signing for an average annual value somewhere above the $25 million option he turned down for five or so years, though I think $30 million would be excessive unless he signs a shorter-term deal. ZiPS would offer him a five-year, $128.6 million contract, though considering the limited outfield options in free agency, I’d expect him to sign for somewhere in the $130 million to $135 million range, which would put him between $26-27 million per year.
Center fielder Trent Grisham, the other player the Yankees received from the Padres in their trade for Soto in December 2023, is also a pending free agent, and his future in pinstripes feels less likely. He’s coming off a career-best season in which he slashed .235/.348/.464 with 34 home runs, a 129 wRC+, and 3.2 WAR. That offensive performance corresponds with his 87th percentile ZiPS projection entering this season, and now ZiPS, which has always been high on Grisham, projects him for a similar .228/.336/.452 line with 26 home runs, a 130 OPS+, and 3.3 WAR.
But Grisham’s defensive metrics are concerning. A two-time Gold Glove winner, Grisham was one of the worst defensive center fielders in baseball this season. Defensive metrics are notoriously noisy from year-to-year, but Grisham’s slide could be tied to his declining sprint speed. In 2022, when he won his second Gold Glove and was worth 13 OAA, 10 FRV, and 10 DRS, he registered a sprint speed of 28.8 feet per second. His speed dropped by more than two feet per second this season as his defense cratered (-2 OAA, -3 FRV, -11 DRS). I’d be concerned about giving Grisham a long-term contract given his limited track record and his diminishing defense and speed, but he could make for a decent fallback option if Bellinger signs elsewhere.
Interestingly, ZiPS would offer Grisham and Bellinger similar contracts, with Grisham’s coming in slightly lower at five years and $125.2 million. Given his superior defense and positional versatility, I think the Yankees would rather have Bellinger, even if he costs a bit more.
For as good as the Yankees lineup was this season, the lack of thump during the ALDS made clear that, after losing Soto to free agency, it was missing a second offensive force to go along with Judge, especially because Giancarlo Stanton never really got going. With that fresh in our minds, there will probably be some buzz this offseason about whether the Yankees should sign right fielder Kyle Tucker, perhaps as an alternative to Bellinger. Tucker is an MVP-caliber talent when healthy. He hits for power, gets on base, runs the bases well, and plays strong defense. What he does not do is play center field. He hasn’t played another outfield position since 2021, when he logged 28 innings in center. That’s not to say he couldn’t do it, just that he hasn’t, and it probably wouldn’t make sense to run him out there. The Yankees could move him to left, with either Bellinger or Grisham in center if they re-sign.
The team also has Jasson Domínguez and prospect Spencer Jones as options in the outfield if it doesn’t bring back its two free agent outfielders, though each player comes with limitations. There’s also the possibility of moving Judge, who turns 34 in April, back to center, but the Yankees shouldn’t consider that a viable option. Judge is coming off a season in which he dealt with a right elbow injury that limited him to DH duties for a stretch in August and affected his throwing even after returning to right. He said after Game 5 that he didn’t know what type of procedure, if any, he’d need this offseason, but even if his arm is back to normal in time for Opening Day, center field is a more physically demanding position and his defensive metrics are much worse there.
Tucker is a year and a half younger than Bellinger, and at his best is a better player, so he’s presumably going to sign for a good bit more than what Bellinger ends up getting. ZiPS sees Tucker as being worth a six-year, $170 million contract. That’s less than what I’d expect his market to be, so I asked Dan Szymborski to run a contract value based on Tucker hitting his 75th-percentile projection as a Yankee, which bumped his value up to eight years and $273 million, or an AAV of $34.125 million. That seems more representative of where his market will be.
The Yankees are set to have a few of their larger long-term deals come off the books in the course of whatever contract Tucker ends up signing; they surely can afford to sign him, but adding both him and Bellinger might be too expensive. Right now, RosterResource projects the Yankees to finish this year with a luxury tax payroll just under $295.7 million, which would place them well above the third threshold, and as they’ve had to pay the tax for three-plus years now, their overall tax penalty is looking to be about $38.7 million. According to Jon Becker, next year the Yankees have a projected luxury tax payroll of about $261 million — excluding Bellinger but including reliever Tim Hill, who has a $2 million club option — which is well above the first tax line of $244 million and only $3 million shy of the second; they’ll almost certainly go above that. The third threshold is $284 million, and the fourth and final one is $304 million, so they’d have quite a bit of room before bumping up against those, but the money adds up quickly. Let’s say they sign Bellinger for $27 million per year, and then add Tucker for $30 million annually. Their payroll would climb to $318 million. I doubt Hal Steinbrenner would want to go that high, especially because that does not include whatever hefty tax penalties they would owe.
I think the most likely scenario would be the Yankees’ re-signing Bellinger to play center and using Domínguez as their everyday left fielder. Domínguez lost playing time as the season wore on because of the emergence of Grisham as an everyday player, and because of some awful defensive metrics in left field. However, it is worth mentioning that this was the first time Domínguez was getting extensive reps in left, a notoriously difficult position to play at Yankee Stadium, and that it was his first full year back from Tommy John surgery. He won’t turn 23 until February, and his tools remain tantalizing.
Of course, any talk of tantalizing tools and the Yankees must include Jones. He’s a 6-foot-7 outfielder with 70-grade raw power and a frightening amount of swing-and-miss in his game. Sound familiar? That was also the prospect profile of Judge, except Jones is running much higher strikeout rates in the minors than Judge ever did, which is ultimately what concerns our lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen.
When I asked Eric about Jones recently, he said Jones has “too much swing-and-miss to count on him for a long-term role. Nobody has a contact rate that low and actually succeeds for a prolonged stretch. A Franchy Cordero type. I wouldn’t consider him a solution if Grisham and Belli leave.”
Eric does not see Domínguez as a viable option in center field, which limits what the Yankees can do this offseason, especially if they fail to re-sign Bellinger or Grisham. After those two, the best free agent center fielder is Cedric Mullins. The defensive metrics are mixed on him, with OAA favoring him and DRS down on him considerably, and his offense has settled in right around league average since his career year in 2021. Otherwise, as at shortstop, their best external fallback options would have to come via trade. The good news is that there are more outfielders to go around. Some of the center fielders who could possibly be available include Luis Robert Jr., Brenton Doyle, Jacob Young, Alek Thomas, and Chas McCormick.
The Yankees got lit up by the Blue Jays in the ALDS, but their pitching is actually in pretty good shape heading into 2026. Although Max Fried faltered in Game 2, he had an excellent first season with the Yankees after they signed him to an eight-year, $218 million contract, the largest deal ever for a left-handed pitcher. Behind him is Carlos Rodón, who has added to his repertoire and become a more complete pitcher after a rough first season in New York in 2023. Cam Schlittler looks like an emerging ace whose development is still in progress. His fastball velocity sat in the low-to-mid-90s prior to 2025, but after working on his mechanics to become more efficient at Double- and Triple-A during the early months of this season, his velocity shot up into the upper-90s and held there. He didn’t hit 100 mph until his major league debut on July 9. The Yankees also have Luis Gil, the 2024 AL Rookie of the Year who missed the first four months of the season with a lat strain, and Will Warren, who entered 2025 as our 73rd-ranked prospect. Despite an inconsistent rookie year, Warren finished 9-8 with a 4.44 ERA, a 4.07 ERA, and 2.1 WAR in 33 starts (162 1/3 innings).
And then there’s Gerrit Cole, who had Tommy John surgery on March 11 and missed the entire season. He’s currently on schedule to be back in mid-to-late May, though the state of the rotation should allow the Yankees to be cautious with his rehab. Cole is now 35, and it might be too much to expect him to return to ace form coming off a major surgery. At the same time, it would probably be unrealistic to think he’d be completely washed up. Penciling him in as a strong mid-rotation arm beginning in the early summer seems reasonable.
The bullpen was the Yankees’ weak link throughout the season, but I don’t think they have too much work to do here. Relief pitching is inherently volatile, and some of their bullpen woes could work themselves out on their own.
Williams had a dreadful start to his time with the Yankees, earning him the reputation of a pitcher who can’t handle the pressures of playing in New York. Fair or not, it probably means the Yankees won’t be bringing him back for another year. Luke Weaver regressed significantly after earning the closer role down the stretch in 2024. He’s also a pending free agent; the Yankees won’t pay top dollar to retain him, but if his price falls, they could re-sign him and see if they can get him right.
Offseason addition Fernando Cruz was a mostly dependable high-leverage arm when he was healthy. Camilo Doval struggled with his command after the Yankees traded for him at the deadline. Fellow deadline acquisition Jake Bird pitched so poorly that the Yankees optioned him to Triple-A. David Bednar, the third reliever they brought in at the deadline, slid into the closer’s role nicely and provided stability to the bullpen over the final two months. All four of those pitchers are under club control for at least one more year.
There will definitely be some turnover in the bullpen, because there is always turnover in the bullpen, but I think this should be a lower priority for the Yankees than signing a center fielder and adding another impact bat. The Yankees are one of the better teams at targeting reclamation projects and relatively no-name relievers and developing them into capable mid-to-high-leverage arms. I’d trust the track record here.
Ultimately, despite the disappointing finish, the Yankees aren’t that far off. They can do more to improve their roster — they should add an impact bat, sort out center field and shortstop, patch up the bullpen, and continue to develop guys — but they weren’t wrong in their belief that they were talented enough to win it all. Sometimes you just get beat.
Another Yankees season has ended in failure. As it did last year. And the year before that. And so it goes, and goes, and goes. Indeed, for 16 years, it’s been one failure after another for the Yankees. But that doesn’t mean this trend has to continue. That’s why you endure all that failure and believe that next time things will be different. At some point, with enough talent and hard work and more than a little bit of luck, that faith is bound to be rewarded with a season that ends in success.
“I’m confident we’ll break through, and I have been every year, and I believe in so many of the people in that room,” Boone said. “That hasn’t changed. The fire hasn’t changed. It’s hard to win the World Series. Been chasing it all my life.”
Matt is the associate editor of FanGraphs. Previously, he was the baseball editor at Sports Illustrated. His work has appeared in The New York Times, Men’s Health, Baseball Prospectus, and Lindy’s Sports Magazine. Follow him on Twitter @ByMattMartell and Blue Sky @mattmartell.bsky.social.
The only difference between this year and last year is the competition. The AL was a bad joke last year. Seattle and Toronto are much more serious, much more talented teams than anything the Yankees faced in 2024 before the World Series.
Well that, and Soto and Cole played last year. And Volpe and Wells were really good. Lemahieu, Torres, Grisham, Goldy, Dominguez, etc.
Goldy wasn’t on the Yankees last year and DJ and Grisham didn’t hit last year.
That was my point. There was a lot of roster turnover between 2024 and 2025.
Yup the Royals only had a winning record because they went something like 12-1 or 11-2 vs the historically bad Chisox.
The difference is also just small sample size. It’s so easy to lose a 5 game series, no matter how good of a team you are.
How they handle the outfield will be interesting. I thought one of the few pieces they were missing this year was a defense-first CF. Grisham was supposed to be that guy but turned into a very different kind of player.
I could see them re-signing Bellinger and trading for one of LRJ/Doyle/etc to play center. Dominguez and LRJ (for example) could platoon with Bellinger moving between LF and CF. Dominguez is a switch hitter, but much better as a lefty.
I doubt it’s Robert, but I agree broadly. I would be stunned if they sign Tucker, so I see the Bellinger/Doyle pair of acquisitions as the version that really makes the most sense. I’m a bit concerned about Bellinger holding up defensively as even a part-time platoon CF role, but that’s probably more of a 2027-29 problem than a 2026 one. Cashman generally loves having a CF who’s just aged out of center in LF anyway like Damon or Gardner.
I know ZiPS is an algorithm that doesn’t ‘hate’ or ‘like’ any specific players or teams, but sometimes I start to wonder when it projects Grisham for 5/125 and Tucker for 6/170.
The idea of Grisham signing for that much is hilarious
I mean I think he gets the QO and then turns it down to get something like 4 years $80M, so it’s more a question of the fifth year and a few mil to me.
If Grisham gets a QO he should accept. That is the kind of deal he might get without a QO, with a QO no team close to the luxury tax will be interested (except the Yankees, who wouldn’t lose a 2nd rounder).
I can’t imagine Grisham gets a contract that guarantees more than 3 years, you’d really have to believe what he did this year with the bat will stick now that he’s not really a CF anymore. There’s a lot of downside here and no team wants to be stuck paying $20M a year for Adam Duvall.
Grisham I agree is crazy it is a shallow FA pool year.
The team lost a tiebreaker for the division title, forcing them into the full gauntlet of playoff games against a strong couple of playoff teams. I don’t really see it as being more complicated than that. If they ran back the same team next year the only real worry is that (like always) a serious Aaron Judge injury will end their year. They would be one of the two or three favorites to win the AL.
There should be a sense of urgency because when Aaron Judge is too hurt to play anymore the Yankees’ title window is effectively closed. But Volpe played hurt, and Schlittler looks like a real major league starter, so it’s not like there isn’t hope for shortstop and in the rotation.
This team absolutely needs to bring back either Bellinger or Grisham, and could really use one more bat somewhere at third base or outfield because McMahon and Dominguez (and Grisham) are zeroes against left handed pitching. Bellinger would be preferred because his split isn’t bad at all (if he even has one). Harrison Bader or Willi Castro or Austin Hays are possibilities but a trade for a higher-end player is also theoretically a possibility.
Another high-leverage reliever would also be a very good idea but not strictly necessary. Extending Bednar (who is a great fit and I can’t believe the Pirates gave him away) is also a good idea. Robert Suarez, Raisel Iglesias, Kirby Yates, Nick Martinez, and Tyler Rogers would all be great fits.
Feels like Castro would be helpful on nearly any team given how many positions he plays. Bregman might be a good fit too if he doesn’t resign with the Red Sox. Or Bichette at 2nd. Machado from the Padres too if they feel like tearing it down or retooling.
Arenado will be available! Not that the Yankees or anyone else will want him. Maybe the Angels if Moreno overrules the baseball staff.
Arenado is still a very useful player now that he’s healthy again.
I disagree. Teams typically don’t give guaranteed deals to one-win 3Bs. His power is completely gone.
Edit: If he could play other positions so he could be a utility guy he would get a lot more interest if they paid down most of the rest of his deal. That’s probably the most likely route for a move.
Well, here’s someone else who completely missed the fact that Arenado was still a league average bat EXCEPT while he was playing hurt for a month. His last two weeks after he came back from the IL proved that he can still hit decently when healthy.
His power isn’t what it used to be, but he’s still good for 15-20 homers and a good amount of doubles. Barring another injury, he’ll be worth at least 2 WAR again next year.
Which month was he hurt? Because he was noticeably below average in May, July, and September.
I’m guessing he was hurt in July since he was unplayable then (.175 average, only two doubles as his extra base hits).
Everything tells the same story: his average EV, hard hit rate, and barrels have crashed. The power is gone. Unless his back suddenly gets better, what he did this year is what he will do going forward (or he’ll be worse).
As someone who watches the Cardinals, I can confirm Arenado is no longer a positive with the bat and was not one magical injury healing away from being good. He had worse month(s) when it appeared the back was really bad, and bad months where the back was maybe a little better? The power to LF is not there.
He still really good defensively but ~85wc is what I’d pencil him in for next year and he’s obviously going to continue to decline thereafter. 1 to 2 war player per 600 AB if properly deployed; so really, he should maybe get 400 AB skewed towards facing lefties.
He also can still get the bat to the ball, as witnessed by his low strikeout rate. I wonder if he could remake his swing to try to shoot the ball to the right center field gap more to get an offensive boost. But a tall ask for an established, aging player. I’d love to see it though as he is fun to watch play defense and I hope he can put together a few more decent years.
I like Moncada on the Angels.
Moncada is an interesting reclamation project he was improved in the limited amount of time he had with the Angles before he was hurt yet again. He will keep getting opportunities
Don’t forget that the Angels already have a 3B in Rendon too
o/u on Rendon games played- 25.
I’ll take the under.
I thought for a second that you meant -25 games played, which honestly, if anyone could pull it off…
Regular season or spring training?
Is that a hyphen or a minus sign?
Who is Rendon?
Castro is a good utility guy, but be careful not to overestimate the number of positions he can play. He’s not someone you want at CF or SS for more than a handful of games. His OF defense in general seems to be slipping and his best position right now is probably 2B.
Great point. Just because he has played there doesn’t mean he should. Like Rafaela anywhere but CF
Not something to count on going forward, obviously, but this year, Bellinger actually had one of the best left-on-left splits we’ve ever seen. 1.016 OPS vs. LHP is a top-30 mark for a lefty bat (min. 150 PAs) since integration.
It’s better than any alternatives!
Belli has a long term even split, with a reverse one this year!
Anyway, KendHal is still the owner.
They’ll say they got unlucky while keeping payroll relatively flat in the hopes that they can duck under the LT threshold in 2027, possibly signing Bellinger to an overlong contract to depress his AAV in the short-term, because they’re going to be paying DJLM and Aaron Hicks $25m not to play for them his year.
They’re Man U.
This feels like a good time for them to find out if any teams are especially high on one of their high-risk, high-upside arms (Lagrange, Cunningham, Hess) or Spencer Jones. There aren’t a ton of obvious affordable bats at the moment on the trade market except the always-hurt Luis Robert and Ivan Herrera. But they do have to replace Bellinger’s offensive production somehow, and they need a center fielder.
That’s the smart move, if they want to drop under.
The move I expect is for Bellinger to get however many years he needs to accept at $25m AAV, and for them to point to Bellinger’s contract in five years when they have Cashman cut payroll in the name of “sustainability.”
> when Aaron Judge is too hurt to play anymore the Yankees’ title window is effectively closed
Well you know what they say, when one door closes another one opens. If you have piles and piles of Yankees money. I’m sure they will eke into the playoffs again.
I can believe the Pirates gave Bednar away because Cherington is a moron. I wouldn’t extend Bednar though, unless it’s a small extension-bad bodied closers don’t age well. He’s had too many Primantis.
Kirby Yates? That guy who couldn’t crack the DODGERS postseason bullpen? Yeah, I get that relievers are volatile and he was pretty good in 2024, but having seen him pitch all year, I wouldn’t want anything to do with Yates in 2026. Strikes out a good number of guys but most indicators are pointing the wrong way: sub replacement production in three of the last four years, gives up lots of homers, groundball rate is not good, velocity down another tick and now 38 years old. Hard pass.
I don’t think it makes sense to draw sweeping conclusions from any playoff run. Losing three of four to another good team says almost nothing about the strengths of either. No matter how good a team is, it’s harder than ever to get through the playoff gauntlet. Yes, the Yankees have been the best team in the league throughout much of their history, but they won so many championships because they’d usually go straight to the World Series. If the current playoff structure had been in place for the past 100 years, I doubt they’d have won so many.
They cut payroll this year, just like they did after losing Game 7 of the ALCS after Judge’s rookie year.
Meanwhile, they’ll be paying Hicks and DJLM $25m next year.
This isn’t to hate on Cashman, to be clear – a playoff appearance while maintaining the flexibility to drop under the LT in 2027 is what success looks like according to his boss.
No, Hicks’ money is off the books. DJLM is still on the books for next year though.
Ah, good shout – Spotrac says 2026.
There was a period of time when the top teams were truly that much better than the bottom teams. A World Series or bust attitude doesn’t really work anymore. Playoff series’s are coin tosses now, even more than they used to be. I’m certain they likely experienced positive variance prior, too, even with being the best team during their run. It’s not like they were “better” than the 2001 Mariners. It’s just baseball, and baseball happens.
This isn’t “tied for their longest run of failure in the history of the franchise.” They are currently under a streak of 16 consecutive years without winning the Worls Series. However, it was 19 years (not counting 1904) at the beginning of the franchise before they won their first World Series in 1923. Even if you throw out 1903 for not technically being a consecutive year, that’s still 18 consecutive years of failure.
Thanks for pointing this out. While this is true, I don’t really consider those 18 seasons of not winning a World Series to be failures because they came before the Yankees won their first title. They hadn’t won anything before that, so the World Series-or-bust mentality wasn’t a thing yet.
The Yankees and Cubs had very similar seasons. With similar results.
Only difference is that the Yankees didn’t lose to a team that beat them 8 seasons in a row.
So are we not counting when the Cubs last won the NL Central in 2020? Even if we throw out that pandemic year, it’s only been 7 seasons (2018-19, 2021-25) that the Brewers have finished ahead of the Cubs since the Cubs won the division in 2017.
When you spell it out it makes it sound even worse.
I very much agree with this. The Yankees are a financial juggernaut but the Cubs are Top 5 in revenues and it is wild that the have finished one spot behind the Brewers for something like 5 consecutive years. Nobody is going around calling the Cubs’ season a failure. They won a single World Series and then the owner lost a ton of money on the Cubs’ real estate ventures in 2020 and they have been a B+ team ever since.
First luring Craig Counsell was supposed to be the missing piece. Then trading for Kyle Tucker was supposed to be their big win-now move but the rotation fell apart without Steele, even with Boyd turning a great year.
I think they made the right move holding on to Matt Shaw but it didn’t panned out, and Alcantara and Cassie probably aren’t ready and their prospect value likely peaked somewhere between a few months and a year ago. There should be way more pressure on this team to win while they still have their position player core intact, but are finishing one spot behind the team in the smallest market in MLB repeatedly.
The Cubs were actually 3 spots behind the Brewers with a 4th place finish in front of only the Pirates in 2021.
The Yankees look to be going into next year with as strong of a roster as anyone in the AL and the money to fill in the gaps. They will need to pick up another good OF, preferably a CF, but that should not be too difficult. Pop in a little rotation and bullpen depth and maybe a decent role player/utility type… this is one of the easier situations out there for a GM.
As long as Judge continues to be elite and healthy. Because one day that is not going to be the case.
They won’t spend the money to fill in the gaps, though, so that they’ll have a chance to duck under the Luxury Tax when it jumps in 2027.
Joel Sherman said on his podcast that Hal wants to get under the luxury tax within the next few so you are correct. I believe he mentioned that Hal wants to get to a payroll of 275 mil.
The best thing to happen to the Yankees in the past decade is Aaron Judge, but a close second is how much they’ve transformed their player development. We’ve already seen a ton of fruits from that on the pitching side: Clarke Schmidt, Will Warren, Luis Gil, and Cam Schlittler, plus a bunch of guys they traded like Drew Thorpe, Randy Vazquez, Hayden Wesneski, and so on. There’s a lot more on the way, too; Schlittler already looks extremely close to being a frontline starter, there’s a legit chance at least one of Hess or Lagrange is as well, and then there are a ton more interesting guys in the system like Rodriguez-Cruz (who looks like he’ll be a #4/#5 by May-ish), Cunningham, and Xavier Rivas.
The position player side is just now starting to catch up, with Ben Rice looking like an incredible development success story and Lombard looking like they’ll get another crack at an internal SS since it doesn’t look like Volpe is that guy long-term. Early returns on Dax Kilby are fantastic and it they have other really interesting late-round guys like Dillon Lewis and Brendan Jones.
The player development combined with the high payrolls means that I think the Yankees are going to be perpetual contenders. I think they have enough depth to weather another 2023 disaster scenario, and even that was clearly a one-year aberration (which people didn’t think at the time; Dan Szymborski ran a column that year saying they needed a teardown). The Yankees are going to have cracks at the apple for a long, long time to come, but the question is, will they ever be the best team in the league? I think if Hal Steinbrenner continues to be penny-wise and pound-foolish, that seems unlikely.
The problem (which, admittedly, is a nice problem to have) is how much of that development success lines up with an Aaron Judge fronted window. As much as the rest of the roster produced this year, you don’t replace 8-10 WAR from one dude easily.
The other problem is the high profile development missteps.
Anthony Volpe is easily one of the most frustrating players I have ever watched. He has stretches where you see exactly why he was a top prospect — enough offense to be dangerous at the bottom of the lineup, incredibly rangy in the field with an internal clock and fast release that helps make up for his lower tier arm strength.
And then, he’ll put up an 0-for-way-too-many and start making horrendous throws and poor decisions. He’s not really reliable in the production sense, though he will go stand at SS every day if you let him.
I know people consider Volpe to be a failure but he was drafted 30th overall in 2019 and is currently 8th in WAR among first-round picks. I think most teams would be happy with that.
It’s a conundrum, right? I wouldn’t consider him a failure, but a disappointment? Absolutely.
And when you look at the currently assembled roster, SS does appear to be a giant question mark when Volpe has been given the chance to lock it down.
That’s a fair distinction.
It’s tough because Volpe does a lot of things well: defense, baserunning, power. But he hasn’t put all of that together one season. He still might though.
Volpe will likely rebound next season. He was playing hurt this year. Next year, he’ll get back to 3 – 3.5 WAR.
Look, with their near unlimited resources to buy players to paper over their mistakes (whether acquisition or development missteps), we can’t have them getting good at developing players too. I don’t like the sound of that one bit, no sir.
When 29 of 30 teams end their season in failure it is difficult to see how 16 consecutive years of failure is in any way notable. The overwhelming majority of teams will do something very similar.
with such a reasonable remark, you must not be a Yankees fan. I think you’re right in one way, but wrong in another. The top spending teams should be expected to win more often, especially those at the very top as they have more financial resources to buy players.
Even given that, we have yet to have a back-to-back champion since 2000, and 16 different teams have won championships in that stretch, plus 5 others made at least one WS without winning it (3 of the 4 remaining teams have not made a WS appearance in that same time period.)
Teams like the Padres and Mets show that even teams that spend aren’t guaranteed better outcomes than the Yankees. Spending helps, but in a way that means any team should win the WS more often than every 16 years? I don’t think so.
There is just no way that Anthony Volpe can be their starting SS going into 2026. He just can’t.
He isn’t the reason why the Yankees lost to the Blue Jays (that was all starting pitching fault), but he is a microcosm of the Yankees greater organizational issues. They will continuously try to jam that square peg into a round hole no matter what your eyes are telling you.
1) I agree.
2) He will be.
I think he gets until Memorial Day and if he is hitting 215/275/360 he’ll be sent down.
He was hurt. He is probably never going to be a star but unless his injury is chronic he will probably be a 2+ win player.
Cashman and Chris Young could be talking over a Seager deal now
But you can’t block Volpe!
– Hal Steinbrenner, 2022.
Harsh assessment of Volpe, given that he has accrued 6.5 WAR over his age 22-24 seasons–and did that while playing one of those seasons hurt. Not sure the floor is “near replacement-level” as you say, nor that the ceiling is 3.5.
In his two healthy seasons, he had a .289 wOBA and a .292 xwOBA.
What’s the list of guys with that profile who graduated from the Erick Aybar zone?
Being in the Erick Aybar Zone is a good thing, but I would tend to believe he won’t get there on a regular basis (if at all). He’s more of a good glove – bad hit shortstop. Kind of like Greg Gagne. You can win with that sort of guy if you get enough offense elsewhere in the lineup.
Jeremy Peña just went from consistent a hair below 100wRC+, 3fWAR seasons to putting up nearly 6fWAR in 125 games.
Obviously Peña is the better player – and thay was true before their 2025 seasons. Volpe with a 90wRC+ and good defence is a good player who is fine as a starting player on a contender. Volpe with an 80wRC+ and bad defence is someond you really need to upgrade on a contender.
Jeremy Peña’s worst xwOBA and wRC+ are quite a bit better than Volpe’s best.
Better defender, too.
The fundamental issue with Volpe is that the most successful version of him is a dead-pull fly ball righty with middling power…and that profile doesn’t play in YS3.
The irony is that Aybar proves my point. Four career seasons of 3.5+ WAR, with a high of 4.2, and only a replacement-level player at the very beginning and the very end of his career. So yeah, 3.5 is not the ceiling and 0 is not the floor (especially considering Volpe is already off to a significantly better start).
Leaving aside the fact that Volpe’s best season was identical to Aybar’s first year as a full-time player on a rate basis…the core issue is that he’s a dead-pull righty with average power and contact.
It’s not a functional batted ball profile in Yankee Stadium.
Nice sleight of hand, but no. 1) That first full-time season came when Aybar was 25, so apples to oranges. 2) Making Aybar look better doesn’t weaken my point anyhow, it strengthens it: you offered him as comp for Volpe, so the better Aybar is, the better we would expect Volpe to perform. 3) Legitimate questions about Volpe’s swing? Fair enough. But with that swing, he has averaged 2.2 WAR across his age 22-24 seasons–why would we expect him to regress to replacement-level as he reaches his prime years?
Like I said, harsh assessment to call Volpe’s floor replacement-level and conclude he will never have a season better than what he put up at 23.
Aybar took over midway through his age-24 season – was Schlittler not a regular this year?
Anyway, as sadtrombone points out, he hasn’t actually reached the Aybar Zone yet.
In three years, he’s had an ~85 wRC+ with average defense, an ~85 wRC+ with great defense, and an ~85 wRC+ with bad defense.
Feel free to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears though, mate – Hal loves you!
I’m an Orioles fan and hate the Yankees, so once again, you are wrong. It would also help if you directly addressed my point, which you have skirted: do you expect a player who averaged 2.2 WAR per season at ages 22, 23, 24 to be replacement-level going forward? That would be an unusual career arc, no? Do you expect a player to have his best season at 23? Also unusual, no? Feel free to reject the evidence of sabermetrics though, mate — the last century loves you!
From May 1st, Volpe put up 0.3 WAR.
From June 1st, he put up -0.1 WAR.
And you’re whining about the article writer including that data as part of the range of possible outcomes going forward.
Also, treating aging curves as gospel while calling someone else a Luddite is bloody hilarious.
Plenty of players peak at 23 or 24 – look at Andre Gimenez!
Not to mention Starlin Castro, Miguel Andujar, Hanley Ramirez, Gary Sanchez…
Mike Trout’s best seasons were at 20 and 21, while Harper’s was at 22!
After 1900 PA of Volpe finding various ways to put up a .290 wOBA and 85 wRC+, explain to me what untapped depths you think he has offensively.
Untapped physical projection at 5’9 180?
You still won’t answer the questions directly, which is telling. You’ve also out plenty of words in my mouth, trying to reverse the burden of proof. I made a simple, non-whining statement: I doubt a player that has been worth 2+ WAR at a very young age is going to be worth close to 0 WAR any time soon, and he might well get better, as many young players do. That’s it; that’s all I said. You are either unwilling or incapable of engaging that very simple claim in good faith, so I will waste no more time on you.
Actually, you’ve phrased the question about three different ways, once not even as a question. He’s given you reasons why he expects that Volpe could be a replacement level player, using historical comps and his personal track record. You still haven’t answered the point that his batted ball profile is atrocious for Yankee Stadium, but you want to talk about people being evasive.
1) let D Williams and Goldy and Grisham walk
2) do not sign K Tucker; Judge is great for RF, don’t over complicate things
3) Run it back with Volpe, hoping better health improves performance, with as good a defense first backup as you can get on the FA market; if volpe stinks, try to address it at the trade deadline
4) bring Bellinger back, longer years so the per year tax hit is lessoned. who cares about the impact in 2031, the Yankees are rich and should keep pushing chips in while Judge is a +7 WAR player
5) I like McMahon at 3rd, Jazz at 2nd, Rice at 1st. Good mix of offense and defense.
6) The starting rotation is good and you get Cole back midyear. no big investments needed.
7) Sign Bader. he’s no longer all world in center but still good and alternatively can cover left. and he’s RH.
Bichette is a terrific hitter but his defense at shortstop is pretty fugly. I can see them giving Volpe another shot and bringing in a vet utility guy as insurance.
Caballero’s all the insurance they need, honestly – straight up better player.
Consider that 2/3 of MLB teams have not won the WS in the last 16 years, the median “drought’ is 20 years, and the average is 26. If you do “world series per playoff appearance” the Yankees should not even yet consider themselves unlucky per 0 for 13 current rate.
We are still a ways from the Yankees earning my sympathy.
I think the Yankees won’t get any sympathy for non-Yankee fans until say 2060.
I think there was a fangraphs article last year after the Dodgers won their second title in a few years which looked at the combined playoff odds to come up with an expected number of titles. And the Dodgers, after being in the playoffs 12 years in a row had 1.99 expected titles. I’d imagine that the Yankees would be over 1 in that time period.
If the Yankees haven’t won a title by 2060 they would almost certainly still have by far the most WS victories in MLB history and would still not be anywhere close to getting my sympathy.
Right?! I was like “what did their team bus drive off a cliff in 2060? Otherwise why would I be sympathetic to the damn Yankees ever?!”
Unless you’re strangely excluding the few teams that have never won the World Series, I find it hard to believe that the average drought is 26 years, especially since the minimum value for the average drought should be 29 years, the number of current teams minus 1 for starting the count at 0 years for the reigning champion.
The minimum max drought would be 29 years. Not the minimum average. 20/26 are both longer than the minimum averages/medians if 15 because of some teams winning multiple titles.
Your math ain’t mathin’. The minimum value for the average drought is not 29 years.
The problem with signing Grisham for a lot/long term is that he reminds me of Aaron Hicks–both guys former 1st Round picks (tantalizing) who show flashes of excellence–but don’t really have a sustainable breakout. You sign them long term, they show some regression (Grisham’s speed –a total of 4 SB in 219 games), and you have another expensive guy not pulling his weight–clogging up the roster because he can’t really do what you need him to do–and eventually released. I agree a key component is going to be the performance of Volpe–he’s got to be able to regain his fielding ability, and maybe after medical treatment, he will. SS is not a good place to have a black hole
Does it matter how you get to your team wRC+?
If a team had a wRC+ of 120, is it better to have a line up of two Aaron Judges with 7 slightly below average hitters, or all 9 hitters having exactly 120wRC+?
With no research done, I would think it better in the playoffs to have more good players (without the Judges) vs Judges plus a bunch average. In the playoffs you can optimize matchups to minimize the impact of one player and also, its baseball, so even great players have bad weeks and if a great players bad week is a playoff week that really sucks (see Stanton and the impact of him not being on this year).
In the regular season, I would think it actually does not matter as much as it all sort of evens out.
Again I did zero research so pure uninformed opinion.
But if you’re Aaron Judge, you can still have a “bad week” that’s better than 85% of hitters in the league.
Well 2024 was basically 2 Judges with 7 dwarfs
Well, with that much of an unbalanced lineup, that second Aaron Judge is going to see a LOT of intentional walks, even during the regular season. There may even be times with a runner on 3rd and less than 2 outs when both Judges are given free passes back-to-back.
Definitely all 9 good hitters. Offense scales nonlinearly with additional good hitters, because they make fewer outs and extend innings.
Volpe needs to visit Driveline during the offseason- his long, looping swing is broken. He is actually a “launch-angle” casualty and could definitely benefit from shortening up his stroke and maximizing his speed. He could be more valuable at the bottom of the lineup with an OBP > .320 while using his baserunning instincts to wreak havoc before Judge comes to bat.
I do think his defense will be fine going forward.
He was a middling prospect before he started yanking everything…and when he tried to shorten things up in 2024, he got the same results as when he yanked everything in the air.
His key will be moving to somewhere like Houston, where the approach that made him a top prospect actually works for someone with his physical profile.
All due respect to Eric L., but he’s the guy who had Ben Rice at #29 on his Yanks prospect list. And not a one-off — the guy has way more misses than hits on his, shall we say, idiosyncratic takes on prospects.
It’s prospects. Everyone has a lot of misses.
Sometimes guys put in the work and get better or develop differently than expected (hell, nearly every outlet had Volpe/Wells as having their carrying tools be offense, when that’s not really been the case so far).
But yeah, prospects, man. I think there wasn’t a prospects list that I saw that had Juan Soto above Victor Robles before Soto became a star at 19.
His takes on Spencer Jones have ranged from “he’s only been a full time hitter for a couple seasons, give him time” earlier this season to “best case scenario is he’s another Matt Wallner”…and apparently now he’s only a Franchy Cordero. And he’s still #2 on the Yankees prospect list.
Yes, he HAS revised his opinion on Jones as he’s received more information!
That flip-flopping monster!
(Also, Jones is #2 on the list because The Board doesn’t include the most recent update, where Schlittler leapfrogged him – he’ll also be behind ERC at the very least in the next update.)
Yeah, I get that, it just seems a lot more mercurial than it could be. All of those things I mentioned are just since May.
And Eric was right about Rice. He wanted to rate him higher but was concerned about his defense and his ability to stay at catcher. He saw him as an interesting bat first prospect who could have a 2-3 year peak similar to Jared Walsh or Justin Bour. What Rice did last year was very much in line with what those two did at their peak. The only unknown at this point is how long Rice’s peak will be relative to those two.
Is there a metric to measure boneheaded plays? The NYY were brutal.
What a great writeup! I know we get them from different perspectives (prospects) but I’d love to see a team by team end of season writeup if that were feasible.
The Yankees were bad between mid-June and mid-August, almost two full months. They were pretty great before and after. When the playoffs started I told a fellow Yankees fan that it would neither surprise me if they lost to the Red Sox nor won the World Series.
It would be nice if the Yankees got a CF and another bat, but it’s always hard to say how hitters would fare in the playoffs. Rice 133 RC+, Grisham 129, Chisholm 126, Bellinger 125, Stanton 158 (77 games). That’s a strong lineup around Judge, even if Volpe, Wells, and McMahon are on the weaker side.
Volpe and Wells regressing is the biggest concern going forward (and Dominguez stalling).
“According to Jon Becker, next year the Yankees have a projected luxury tax payroll of about $261 million“
This feels high to me. Becker in April posted an article on future payrolls that had Yankees at $163M. Add in the $48M in projected arb for 2026 + $12M tax hit on McMahon, and it seems it should be around $225
The title is ridiculously harsh and I say this as a Red Sox fan. The Yankees had key injuries and still made the ALDS. I think it was a strong season.
Yeah, had Cole been healthy for example, I think the Yankees advance over the Blue Jays in the DS and then actually present a challenge to the Mariners in the CS.
Were they outplayed by Toronto in a 5 game series? Sure. Does that tell you anything about how good they were or what a failure they were? Nope.
Making the playoffs means you are a good baseball team. Progressing in the postseason means you played well in a tiny sample. The two are entirely different things.
Anyway:
I’m a Washington Nationals fan. I’ll take the Nats’ 2010-2025 run over the Yankees’, because it includes 1 World Series win, while the Yanks, clearly the better team over that stretch, have 0.
However, in a general sense, if what the last 16 years for the Yankees – playoffs most every season – winning records all the time (maybe one < .500 in there) qualifies as “failure” then sign me up!
I know the Yankees organization and their fans consider anything less than a World Championship season a failure, but, to me, this is wildly unrealistic in a league with 30 teams, a luxury tax, free agency, a 12-team post-season field, and short-series playoff rounds where random factors abound.
It was a lot easier in the 1920s thru 1960s to win Series after Series. Not so much, now.
What’s really beautiful to me about all of this is that it’s significantly more likely than not that these “failures” keep coming every year.
As a Mariners fan who was crushed by the late ‘90s early 2000s Yankees teams that 1) spent money when nobody else did and 2) had everything imaginable break their way, this is deeply gratifying.
The casualty of those incredible years for Yankees fans is that they think they still live in the 1930s. And now Yankees fans can’t help but crush themselves year after year with their own outlandish expectations.
The article listed two different ERAs for Warren. The second one (4.07) should be labelled as his FIP.