No Verlander in Game 5? Really?

Tonight, the Tigers and Yankees face off in a winner-take-all battle, and just like both teams drew it up, the pitching match-up for the elimination contest will be Doug Fister versus Ivan Nova. Okay, so that’s not how either team drew it up — the rain in Game 1 on Friday made for some wonky rotations, and now both teams will try to keep their seasons going without their best pitchers on the mound.

Understanding that a round one exit will be looked at as a failure, Joe Girardi has stated that CC Sabathia is available out of the bullpen if needed tonight, despite throwing 106 pitches on Monday. However, Jim Leyland has categorically stated that Justin Verlander will not appear in tonight’s game.

Maybe Leyland is bluffing. Maybe he’ll change his mind if the Tigers are trying to preserve a small lead as the game goes on. If he doesn’t, though, this might be a decision he regrets for quite a while.

Verlander only threw 14 more pitches on Monday night than Sabathia did, and given that those pitches were spread out over a larger number of batters, you could make a case that he may have actually put less stress on his arm in Game 3. Traditionally, starting pitchers have a throw day in-between starts, which usually comes after two days of rest — today would be Verlander’s normal throw day. And, of course, there’s a decent amount of historical precedence for teams using starters out of the bullpen in the playoffs on short rest without seeing them suffer significant arm injuries.

But, Leyland insists that Verlander is unavailable today, and that he’s not willing to risk his health by having him take the mound on two days rest. I will say, though, that this is a bit of an odd time to begin worrying about Verlander’s workload.

During the regular season, the Tigers allowed Verlander to throw 3,941 pitches, the third highest total any starting pitcher has had in the last 10 years. The fourth highest total on that list belongs Verlander as well, as he threw 3,937 pitches in 2009. Last year, he “only” threw 3,745 pitches, the 13th highest total since 2002. Not surprisingly, no one in baseball has thrown more pitches in the last five years than Verlander — Sabathia comes in second on the list, by the way.

It’s not just cumulative work either. Back in May, Leyland let Verlander throw 132 pitches in a win over the Red Sox — only five pitchers have thrown more pitches in a single game in the last five years. In fact, since 2007, Verlander has thrown 120 or more pitches in a game 24 times, including his start on Monday. While there’s a lot more to protecting pitchers than just keeping their pitch counts down, the Tigers have not been shy about using Verlander over the years.

But now, with their season on the line, Leyland has stated that Verlander isn’t available. I can understand not wanting to risk the golden arm that helped get you this far, but at the same time, would using Verlander for an inning or two really be a significant health risk? If Verlander says his arm feels good and wants to pitch, isn’t the potential to advance to the ALCS worth giving him that opportunity? No one has really figured out how to predict pitcher injuries, after all. I’m not suggesting that the Tigers should knowingly put Verlander’s health at risk, but given all that we don’t know about how to keep pitcher’s healthy, it’s possible that facing a few batters tonight wouldn’t pose any real serious risk to Verlander’s arm at all.

Leyland knows Verlander better than we do, but the Tigers have been treating him like a workhorse for years. It’s just a bit odd to put on the kid gloves now and try to stave off elimination while Verlander sits and watches, especially if he’s capable of doing something about it.